This is the second installment of our 6 part series “MN DFL Senate ‘08 Review” which is examining the six potential DFL’08 candidates for Senate. This article features State Senator Tarryl Clark (St. Cloud).
MPR’s Polinaut is, once again, the source of rumors about a possible Tarryl Clark candidacy:

DFL Senator Tarryl Clark of St. Cloud says some folks have also asked her to run for the U.S. Senate. She says she hasn’t been giving it any thought and is focused on her work in the Legislature. Clark also admits that she’s been asked to run for Congress (she lives in the 6th and would face off against GOP Congresswoman Michele Bachmann) and for governor in 2010. When pressed that it seemed like she was leaving the door open, she told reporters that she wouldn’t close any doors and added “I would say that you don’t have enough to do if you’re talking about and thinking about this kind of stuff.”

Clark in the 6th… hmm… that’s interesting… Oh, sorry, we’re talking Senate here. So clearly this is not a very strong indication by Clark herself that she will get in the race but the fact that she admits to being recruited has sparked a lot of interest. And if there’s one thing you shouldn’t do, it’s underestimate Tarryl Clark.

We were very pleased to cover Clark’s special election victory over Dan “Ox” Ochsner back in the winter of 2005 and she went on to win safely in this last election. As if that weren’t impressive enough Clark then proceeded to snag the position of Assistant Majority Leader as a, essentially, freshman member. This has been no small position for Clark so far either; she has transformed herself into the face of the DFL Senate Majority appearing in front of every camera in lieu of Pogemiller.

All of this, of course, would greatly advantage State Senator Clark if she chooses to take a run at removing that “State” before her title. She has proven herself to be ambitious, talented, and her visibility at the capitol certainly doesn’t hurt. Then you stack on the fact that she used to be the Deputy Chair of the DFL and, well, you have a candidate who could potentially have more in-roads with party insiders and delegates than anyone other plausible candidates. Which gives her a shot at the endorsement even with a heavy-weight in the race.

What makes Clark so compelling in the endorsement doesn’t necessarily protect her in the primary. Strong-party ties have been known to turn-off the general electorate in Minnesota and the insider baseball that would be inevitable in a Clark candidacy could backfire in the end. Then there’s the fact that she’s been in the legislature for little more than most of the freshman and, well, there are a few hurdles to jump over on the way to the finish line.

With what Tarryl Clark has shown in her time in Minnesota politics, however, it’s not implausible that she could overcome most of the obstacles that face her. The real question is whether Clark really wants to run and if this race is best suited to her. With Franken waiting in the wings and other potential legislator candidates jumping in it just may not be the time for Clark to make the jump to higher office. And there’s that whole Clark v. Bachmann possibility…

No doubt she has the chops and the potential, but is the time right?

Polinaut let loose the news last week that State Rep. Joe Atkins (Inver Grove Heights) may be considering a run for the United States Senate:

Atkins says he’s thinking about running because he wants to put Washington DC on an “Atkins diet. Which means less war and more focus on prescription drugs and affordable health care.”

I find this news extremely intriguing for several reasons.

First of all, I think that out of all the “under-dog” candidates (Moua and Clark being the other two) Atkins is the most serious about running. The line he provided to Polinaut is pretty aggressive for a politician-teaser statement and the word at the Capitol is that Atkins has been eyeing higher office for a while.

Secondly, Atkins is known to be very charismatic and funny (something that may turn out to be a necessary character trait this cycle). He won his reelection campaign 72-28 and while his district isn’t terribly competitive, this is still impressive. His charisma has also earned him a reputation as a stellar fund-raiser and his Chairing the Commerce and Labor committee won’t hurt that aspect.

On to the hurdles. As many people pointed out in the comments on an earlier Atkins post he has lost a couple races for leadership positions including Majority Leader to Tony Sertich. Some people may see this as a sign of Atkins’ weaknesses but I don’t think it’s much of a problem at all. Sertich is a tremendous legislator who there’s no shame in losing to and Atkins being slightly outside the DFL inside track is a sign of his centrist strength.

Atkins biggest hurdle isn’t even his being a metro area guy (in fact, given Coleman’s the target it might be to his advantage to also be from a St. Paul suburb) it’s the same disadvantage that all the under-dogs have: name recognition and money. Barely anyone has heard of Atkins and he certainly doesn’t have the monetary assets that Franken and Ciresi have so he’s already in a tough spot. That being said, it’s always possible to change that around and he has 2 years to do so.

Ultimately Atkins’ chances may be determined more by the actions of others than his own. If Franken and Ciresi jump in and Johnson does not jump in, I see a real niche for Atkins as the “experience” candidate. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up for the State Representative. So, there’s my very long-winded analysis. Thoughts?

There’s something a little perverse about getting this into a race that’s still nearly two years out but the growing size of Senate campaigns coupled with the potential explosiveness of this race causes us all to get a little excited. Coleman’s gotta go down, but who can take him out? That’s the big question.

To that end we will be featuring the big contenders each in their own individual post that gives an overview of the candidate and my personal analysis.

There are two tiers of possible candidates right now, the heavy-weights and the under-dogs. In the latter category we have the following three possibilities (as I see them):

• State Rep. Joe Atkins
• State Sen. Tarryl Clark
• State Sen. Mee Moua

Obviously a few other names could get tossed into that group but I see these three as the only serious candidates yet to indicate interest (although even Mee seems like a stretch as far as serious interest goes).

And in the heavy-weights category we have the following three gentlemen:

• Mike Ciresi
• Dean Johnson
• Al Franken

Some may argue that Johnson should not be in this category, but I disagree. I will feature each of these candidates in the above order, so stay tuned.