I’m new to this whole internets thing well, okay, at least to having a vicious Editor in Chief like Matt breathing down my neck for content everyday. Antagonizing online is something I’ve done for a long time.
But in my search for something to write about I was struck by this post on MYDD. MYDD for those who don’t know is one of the bigger national blogs, a venue I would like to think is full of well informed commentary etc.
I was wrong.
What caught my attention was this post by Chris Bowers titled “Spinning Our Wheels On Senate Recruitment”
Minnesota. Al Franken’s entry into the race, along with his strong fundraising, appears to have scared off other Democrats from challenging highly vulnerable Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. However, as much as many of us might like Al, there are reasons to be worried about this. Polling has consistently shown Coleman hovering either just above or just below 50%. At the same time, it has also shown a fairly name recognition for Al Franken, who trails Coleman by 10-20%, depending on the poll. More worrisome are Franken’s favorable numbers, which are actually slightly negative according to both Rasmussen and the Mason-Dixon. That is not a formula for making up ground on a right-wing Senator in a bluish state would is very beatable. If Franken’s favorables remain in negative territory, there is no way he can win this race.
I’m curious if Chris did even a perfunctory Google Search on the Minnesota Senate Race? There are a few things worth noting, simple things I figure, but lost in Bowers attention to Al.
First, is there are multiple nominees on the DFL side for the Senate race. Some not well known, some operating in the margins (Bob Olson) and then there is a guy named ‘Mike Ciresi’. Fought the class action suit over Dalkon Shield? Served as India’s counsel in the litigation over Bhopal? The tobacco settlement? Ran for the Senate in 2000? Yeah, that Mike Ciresi. As well, Peter Agre, Nobel laureate is contemplating running.
Secondly, with my apologies to Al and all of my friends on his staff, but there are plenty of people in Minnesota who are taking a wait and see approach to his campaign, he is by no means the DFL’s candidate in Minnesota.
Thirdly, it is widely talked about in Democratic circles that there will be several candidates to join the race in the coming weeks and months. The Minnesota State Legislature adjourned last week and several legislators (Sen. Tom Bakk, Rep. Joe Atkins and Rep. Aaron Peterson among others) have been discussed as possible candidates with most informed observers guessing that they’d go home, enjoy Memorial Day, talk to the people they need to talk to and if they’re going to run they will announce in the coming weeks.
Finally, Minnesota has a ‘unique’ candidate selection system. Starting with the mother of all progressive and inclusive institutions the walking subcaucus in March which leads to a party endorsement in late May/June capped off by an incredibly late primary in September giving this circus a couple extra rings. And as Franken, Ciresi and Olson have all stated that they will abide by the DFL endorsement process this isn’t as easy or as clear cut as some other states where a pile of money means that they will be the most intimidating candidate in a primary.
But that isn’t as convenient a storyline is it?
I guess the point behind this is the blogosphere is growing into it’s role in political activism, growing pains, childish outbursts, and mistakes will happen but with the push and the influence that a blog like MYDD has it should do its… well… its due diligence before prognosticating from afar.
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Its a blog with a national audience and Franken is the only candidate known nationally. The message to that national audience(which is one that a lot of people here already know), is that Franken isn’t going to win.
Sean, I think you’re a little off base here. (I hope to be saying that often)
I think the point of the MYDD write up is simply that the Franken campaign faces a real up-hill challenge. Look, negatives don’t go down. To have a challenger, that is known by 80% of the state but generally not liked, is not a good thing.
The incumbent has: already run state-wide twice, led the state’s second largest city (in it’s largest media market) for nearly a decade and owns the perception that he did a good job as mayor. Now he is deftly moving to the middle with a flare normally reserved for Young DFLers at keg parties.
Did anyone see the Coleman booth at the state fair last year? It was all about E85. He is slick, slick, slick. And he will have an entire national GOP convention that will be praising him and the so-called St. Paul Renaissance.
People have already made up there mind. They don’t like Franken. Minnesotans don’t like to be embarrassed. They see Coleman for what he is, a politician. And a damn good one at that.
I am convinced that Al Franken can not defeat Norm Coleman. We need more candidates in this field.
I almost posted at MYDD about this story, but mainly to agree with their assessment on Franken. While I would personally vote for Franken in a general, many people who might otherwise vote for a Democrat would not. So while it is unfortunate they didn’t discuss the whole field, he was right in his analysis of Franken, in my opinion.
Looking at this campaign as a horse race, I still think Franken is a very weak candidate. He has wonderful name recognition, and lots of people owe him favors for past fundraising, but Al Franken has nearly as many negatives as George W Bush (and Bush isn’t running). He has made so many outrageous statements during his long career in comedy, that a 12-year-old with an internet connection could easily find more than enough quotes to sink his entire campaign. He might even get the endorsement, but he wouldn’t win a campaign where there is any opposition research at all.
Both Olson and Ciresi have little name recognition. Olson is personable during the stump speech at least, but Ciresi doesn’t pack much energy.
There is a completely different way of looking at the Senate race, of course. We might also ask who might be the best one for the job. There again, I think Franken falls completely flat. Either Olson or Ciresi would do a credible job, though. They would vote generally well, do their committee homework, author a few worthy bills.
The guy I see as best in the office, though, is a guy who hasn’t declared yet: Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. He sees the disaster that the Iraq war has produced. He sees that we are heading for a cliff called global warming and the end of cheap oil. He understands the relationship between spending money on empire and not having that money for investing in the future. Jack would be the guy in the Senate who could get us finally talking about where our country should be going and how we ought to get there.
I understand that it is hard for some people to take a candidate seriously if he doesn’t have $9 million. But take just a moment sometime and listen to the guy (or read any of his 13 books). Then ask yourself if somebody else would actually make a better Senator.
I just posted clips of Peter Agre’s Colbert Report appearance (from 2006) at The Law and Politics Blog, http://blog.politicslaw.org
Keep up the rabble-rousing Sean!
I hope Nelson-Pallmeyer gets in the race. I think that (at least nationally) this is seen as Al Franken’s nomination, and because of Franken’s money and name recognition that other candidates have been scared away.
MESSAGE TO OTHER POTENTIAL CANDIDATES: Al Franken is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Norm Coleman if he’s the nominee. Please get in the race.
Wishful thinking by people who want to tank Franken - just isn’t worth the effort.
It won’t make it so.
At the end of the day - he is still far better known than Mike Cerisi, who may quite qualified in his own right.
Who is it that opines at length about this state’s politics, probably from outside the state? I have heard ecstatic people say “we get to vote for Al Franken this time around!” That’s hardly scientific, but certainly as valid as the arguments presented against Franken.
The fact remains Smarmy Norm is a pain in the ass.
A couple of comments supporting Franken (ecstatically!) are as valid as say polls showing him losing to Coleman by 25 points? As polls showing him with higher negatives than positives? With higher negatives than Coleman? More valid than a huge collection of video clips and quotes of Franken acting like a jackass?
If Franken could win, I would be behind Franken. But he can’t, so I’m not.
The great thing about blogs is that misleading or incomplete information can easily be corrected, if not at the originating site, then elsewhere, like here.
Cris Bowers may have missed the underlying currents, but that is what you get at a national blog.
Personally, I supported Ceresi last time. Dayton was a disaster in waiting. His campaigh was rich-boys exercise in self-agrandizement. Now he wants to do it again in the Governers race.
Ooopps, I digress.
I agree about Franken. He can’t win. When I think of him, the image that comes to mind is the joke he told recently on Letterman about the guy who had a penis growing out of his forehead and balls hanging down over his eyes. I good, if juvenile, joke, but not from a senate candidate.
Predictions based on an empty gas can of analysis are worth what? — what you pay for an empty gas can me thinks. Silly people stick in a lighter to see if it is “really empty.”
The key to getting the endorsement at State Convention is organization plus more organization. It strikes me that it was mighty early for the United Steelworkers to endorse, but that they did, and they are something of a key to organizing in the 8th District — not all of it mind you, but a chunk. In my years of working state endorsement efforts, it was worth about 60% of the 8th District’s delegates. It also carries much weight in the 4th District.
It’s just beginning — but what are you observing about organizing? Base the predictions on something of substance.
It’s interesting how Franken is brilliant in specific areas like math - but keeps saying things that are really inappropriate for a US Senate Candidates to say….he reminds me of Bill Gates.
Organization and union endorsements speak to becoming the DFL nominee, which Franken very well could be. We’re talking about the general election, in which Franken would be absolutely crushed by Coleman.
Sara,
Your years of organizing should remind you that just last year Becky Lourey carried the 8th District without steelworkers or any union endorsement.
if Franken thinks he has it wrapped up or an inside track, he should count the numbers of steelworkers versus the membership of Education Minnesota or say AFSCME, or even SEIU. Those are the unions that actually work campaigns, have money and good membership numbers.
Franken will lose somewhere alone the way. The DFLers will just have to decide if it is at the convention or the election. With Agre running a DFL convention that picks Franken will look like a a joke. Nobel Prize winner or ex-cokehead SNL member? The DFL should choose wisely if they want to take a step forward.