Earlier today, I showed how the new MPR poll shows Norm Coleman’s weakness heading into the 2008 election. The poll, however, also says good things about Franken and Ciresi.
Again, I am aware that they both trail Coleman by double digits. If you look past the headline and actually examine the data, however, you will understand my optimism.
MDE is quick to note that only about 55-60% of DFLers backed Franken and Ciresi in the MPR poll. Truth is, this is why the head to head match ups look so bad and also why Ciresi and Franken should not be troubled by the poll.
If Ciresi and Franken received the same level of support among Democrats that Coleman gets from Republicans, this race would be in the single digits (and Coleman would be under 50%). More to the point, neither of them will have any trouble shoring up support about DFLers. By the time 2008 rolls around, both will garner 85%+ of Democrats.
Much more important is the fact that Norm is below 50% (though just barely) among independents against both Ciresi and Franken. And this is before most voters even know who these guys are.
Take Ciresi for example. The MPR poll showed that 35% of Minnesotans don’t know who he is and another 34% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
So rejoice if you will, my Republican friends.
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Are you drunk?
You clowns were only vaguely credible to begin with.
Don’t embarrass yourselves writing about how getting your ass kicked in a poll is a good thing.
I don’t believe the 2006 election was a sign that the GOP is kicking your ass.
Don’t claim that almost a full third of Dems supporting Coleman is a good thing for any of your shitty candidates.
LOL. I have to agree with Dumbing - I don’t know how you find good news for the Democrats here. The fact that a lot of people don’t know Ciresi (as opposed to people knowing and disliking Franken) is not much to get excited about.
This poll should be a wake up call to any other Democrats who are thinking about running.
Zack,
Quick question. Did you pick direct deposit or are you still going with the goold ol’ paper paycheck from the DFL? You should really move into the 21st century man. You might even want to consider starting your own blog. You know, a serious one.
Next, you will be saying that Congress’ 29% approval rating is something to celebrate. Believe it or not, Congress’ approval rating is lower today than it was on election day last year. I guess the voters know that it’s been almost six months and nothing has gotten done in Congress.
I know I have been repeating myself for the last 4 weeks but here we go again. Franken will not get the nomination. The DFL is notorious for running people that have no chance of winning a close race but even they can see that Franken is hopeless. He is a angry, carpetbagging, elitist that has no chance of connecting with enough Minnesotans to win a park board seat in St. Louis Park much less U.S senate seat. Coleman may be relatively vulnerable but he is still an incumbent senator and if the DFL really wants it they had better find better candidates then they have dug up so far.
Never underestimate the power of the DFL to nominate a hopeless candidate.
Why is it that all of you clearly conservative types have nothing better to do than comment on a liberal blog? The fact is, we are more than a year from even having a DFL nominee and while this poll is, by no means, manna from heaven for Democrats, it’s not exactly great news for Norm either. Finally, DFLers may not always nominate candidates that have a great deal of appeal in greater Minnesota and yes, more often than I’d like, they lose (Mark Ritchie, Rebecca Otto, Lori Swanson, and Amy Klobuchar not withstanding), at least we nominate candidates who are real, genuine people who aren’t afraid to fight for what they believe in, and who don’t change their views when the going gets tough (and they don’t run against people they claimed to support six years earlier *cough*Norm*cough*).
Yes - Coleman is vulnerable today. A big part of that is Bush’s continued unpopularity. In addition, this state still leans left which means any Republican candidate is going to have to appeal to a lot of middle ground voters.
The problem I see right now is that neither Ciresi or Franken does a lot for people. Franken is a flat out bad choice. He’s got way too many negatives. Ciresi won’t excite too many people either but maybe that’s because he’s unknown. We do know he didn’t fare well last time he ran among his own party.
So do the Dem’s have another option?
Frankly, I think Klobuchar won big for 2 reasons - A) anti-Bush and B) She’s a she. The Bush issue won’t be as big a deal in the 2008 race so I think the Dem’s would be wise to nominate a female who can appeal to the middle.
My choice - Judi Dutcher
Just Confused,
There are more than two political view points than Conservative or Liberal and this blog was created in part as a public forum where all are welcome. I know only because I asked before I first posted. Politics only works when thoughtful people can critique each other and accept critique in return. Dogmatic adherence to a party is the primary cause for the problems we now face.
I don’t think the moonbat that will eventually get the Democrat endorsement is even in the race yet.
Oh don’t get me wrong, I would love to see the D’s put up either Franken or Cereci but I think that as their unpalatability becomes more apparent it will be impossible for even a die-hard denialist like Zack to support them.
Hell, Frankin will be lucky to survive the campaign without earning an assault and battery conviction!
Kathy and some of the other liberals who post comments here say that Tim Walz is so great and so popular. I wonder how long it will be before Chuck Schumer picks up the phone and asks him to run for Senate.
Why would Tim Walz want to run for Senate?
Kerosene,
You are right, of course, and I apologize to you specifically if you found my post insulting. My broader point was that it accomplishes nothing to simply belittle the other side rather than expressing any valuable arguments. It seemed to me that the posts previous to mine (yours not included) did just that. Again, my apologies, I pride myself on acceptance of others’ ideas, particularly those I disagree with.
Just Confused,
No problem at all.
http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2007/05/agre.html
We could also be getting another candidate. Dr. Peter Agru is looking into the race.
Found it on the Guru.
Zack, your analysis is pretty much spot on, at least for Ciresi. For Franken it’s a bit more of a mixed bag; the Coleman numbers aren’t bad, but Franken’s own unfavorables mean he’s got a lot of work to do. Even if he brings back the kind of DFL support that is more likely on Election Day, this does suggest a liability
For the people claiming the analysis is nothing more than blind DFL hopes, did you actually read it? Or look at anything in the poll besides the raw head-to-head numbers? Because those are the most useless part of it, this far out from an election.
Polling right now is mostly junk, not because of methodology or who the GOP thinks are intentionally skewing results for, but because it’s simply too far away from an actual ballot to mean anything. People’s opinions have not hardened to the point where they can show any real predictive behavior and a gazillion things can happen to change everything, be they actions by the candidates or just events in the world. A poll 6 months from now between Franken & Ciresi for the nomination? Might mean a little. But even 6 months from now a head-to-head against Coleman won’t mean much. Check the polling from the Virginia Senate race last cycle if you don’t believe me; this early on George Allen was so unconcerned about winning his race he was trying to run for President at the same time. How did that work out for him?
The poll is mostly meaningless. It shows a couple of indicators, nothing more. I’m betting no one on any of the campaigns is really celebrating it much, no matter how they spin it, because what it really tells all of them is they have to get their asses to work or they’re gonna lose. All of them.
Schumer has already met with Walz. While I believe Walz would be the ideal candidate, as a resident of the 1st I believe it is important for him to stay here and I truly believe it is where he wants to be. Maybe at some point in the future he’ll consider running for higher office, but that wasn’t why he ran. He saw a need for the first district, and I don’t see him leaving until he feels he’s fulfilled what he set out to do.
Any declarations & conclusions this early in the race are premature, to say the least.
Certainly from the foul wishful thinking from the right LEANING(?) posters who seem to think they have mustered an argument simply because they can post BS. Shouldn’t they be in home room or something?
Coleman is a lame choice. He’s lashed himself to the Bush administration & I can’t see him wangling enough marginal votes to ever make up for playing Barney to King George.
Even though Normy has his opportunity to grandstand when the Republican Convention comes here to mess up our lives, roads & even the State Fair. If the New York convention is any indication - the taxpayers of the state will be left holding the bill, just as New York was, when they got told to take the money for police overtime & other expenses from the Homeland Security money they were previously allocated.
The poll does point out that people aren’t paying attention - and of course historically not too many do before Labor Day.
The coverage is scant, so those who are trying to paint a face on Franken which is a false construction has to work overtime to promote & inculcate a general negative malaise about him.
THIS is their SwiftBoat window.
Walz wouldn’t be bad, if he decides to move to the Senate - and he probably has more recognition than Cerisi.
I think you are misusing the term SwiftBoat. In John Kerry’s case, people (who were not directly in contact with Kerry in Vietnam) lied about his war record. In Franken’s case, his critics are merely druging up Franken’s old quotes - while there is certainly spin and commentary on Franken’s behavior, no one is disputing the accuracy of the underlying facts.
I want to beat Norm Coleman. For that reason, we need to talk about how bad a candidate Al Franken is. Because if Al Franken is the nominee, we lose.
Agreed. We can do better than Norm or Franken. I also think we as a state can do better than Cerisi.
Dan,
You may have a point in retaining a coherence in the use of “SwiftBoating,” if we limit it to complete fabrications vs just massive distortions.
I disagree that Franken would lose against Normy.
Let’s get to a debate. But first, its the primary.
Normy cannot stand up to scrutiny, if there is a debate that is well administered. He’s working to make his record appear that he is Minnesota-friendly & not a lap dog for the Bushies.
All they need to do is air some of the past gaffes by Normy - including the oil-for-food nonsense & his sudden silence about Wolfowitz & other scandals.
His looking like an idiot in some C-SPAN coverage - including that hearing with Voinovich speaking out (was it the Bolton nomination?).
I recall the topic had been ripped a new one - and then Normy got his turn to speak - and lamely parroted all the Bushie Administration talking points that had just been ripped to shreds by the speaker before him.
All that has to happen, is that Franken needs to be heard by the voters vs the spin. He also poses a significant threat because the people who probably are not part of the MPR poll - 20 something males will likely show up to vote for Franken.
If the Republicans just quote Franken, is that a distortion?
If you can find a way to make to work Coleman’s C-Span coverage into an effective 30 second TV commercial, you had better let someone know ASAP. It won’t be very hard, though, to put together 30 second ads with video of Franken screaming about how Republicans are f*****g shameless.
I don’t want to get to a primary. I want Franken to drop out and have some other people get into the race.