Remember back in February when Republicans were crowing about a Survey USA poll that had both Franken and Ciresi down by 20pts? A new poll came out today.
Coleman 49%
Franken 42%
Coleman 48%
Ciresi 42%
A single digit race and the incumbent is under 50% - hold onto your britches, we’ve got oursevles a ballgame!
A couple other troubling signs for Norm -
* He now trails among moderates 42-50 to Ciresi and 44-49 to Franken
* A big gender gap has broken out. Norm loses women 38-50 to Ciresi and 42-50 to Franken
* Norm is still drawing higher than expected percentages in certain demographics (47% on the Iron Range?), meaning I think his number is still soft.
A quick sidenote: Michael Brodkorb has spent the last six months trashing Al Franken only to see Franken pick up 7 pts in the polls. It looks like Michael is trying to duplicate the success he had on the Kennedy campaign.
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“It looks like Michael is trying to duplicate the success he had on the Kennedy campaign.” ZING!
I can’t wait for the right-wing spin on these numbers. There has to be some serious pants pooping going on over there.
MN Publius always forgets about Michele Bachmann, or should I say Congresswoman Bachmann. I think Zach’s comment has more to do with my fisking of Sean Broom’s inaccurate post about Steve Drazkowski. But, politics is a contact sport and I can take it.
I will add that this race will continue to be close as the environment for Republicans is tough. But even in a tough political environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten points over his DFL opponents.
Hey everyone(else).
What do you say we make a super-secret version of MNpubius and not tell Mikey about it??
We could all just log back onto this website from time to time to throw him some “red” meat??
Coleman 2008 = Kennedy 2006
Maybe Cheney or Rove will make another call to Tpaw and tell him to run for the senate this time.
It is interesting that Franken and Ciresi have virtually identical numbers. To me it suggests a deep dissatisfaction with incumbent Republicans and not a strong endorsement of any particular DFL candidate. It would be interesting to see what the numbers would look like if the DFL had a candidate that didn’t posses the high negatives that Franken has. Ciresi I think has more room to grow his numbers than Franken does. Franken’s negatives are the only way the DFL could loose the race for that seat.
From the Survey USA analysis:
“What happened between SurveyUSA’s February poll on the U.S. Senate race and SurveyUSA’s July poll? Big changes among women, among Independents and among voters in the Twin Cities. Among greater Minneapolis St Paul voters, against Franken, Coleman led by 29 in February, trails by 5 in July, a 34-point swing to the Democrat. Among greater Minneapolis St. Paul voters, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 29 in February, trails by 1 in July, a 30-point swing to the Democrat.”
30+ point swings within five months, in any significant demographic, are _not_ a good sign for the incumbent.
It would foolish to think the trend will continue, but it would be equally foolish to think the swing has peaked out.
Potentially more significant, the similarity between the Ciresi and Franken numbers suggests the swing isn’t due to a cult of personality arising around a particular DFL candidate, but more of an “anyone but Norm” sentiment.
MBB spins:
“I will add that this race will continue to be close as the environment for Republicans is tough. But even in a tough political environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten points over his DFL opponents.”
That only works if you include the Jim (respondents likely say: “who?”) Cohen’s head-to-head numbers. It’s more likely a 6.5% difference.
Any way you slice it, these should be very troubling numbers for the Coleman campaign.
“Coleman 2008 = Kennedy 2006”
I am not so sure. Kennedy was a hard track, +95% republican voting record, stuck to the side of the President, candidate. Sen. Coleman on the other hand is a) the incumbent. b) has moderate credibility, and c) is a likable guy to the electorate. I haven’t even totally ruled him out, but would be surprised if he eventually floated to the top of my personal list.
But when equating him to Kennedy ‘06, remember that Kennedy was dead in the water from the beginning, and the early AKlo polls held their double digit leads all the way through the general election. Its Coleman’s to lose. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Coleman right now. There never was a line on Kennedy during the whole ‘06 election. Flash
Mr. Brodkorb puzzles me. What rational person would admit to any connection with Rep. Bachmann, let along brag that he was responsible for putting her in Congress?
Unless he meant it as some kind of threat . . .
A trained chimp could run a race in the 6th as the GOP candidate and win. It’s hardly an accomplishment. As evidenced by the current officeholder and the one prior to her.
The numbers look pretty good. It’s early but the trend is looking fine.
The GOP did run a chimp for Minnesota House seat 14B and lost. 14B in Stearns is one of the more conservative areas in Bachmann’s district (with the exception of the students around Saint Johns) but the DFL carried it fairly easily. The DFL would have better luck in those areas if they realized how important is was to run candidates that reflected the voters rather than DFL leadership. Wetterling did not reflect the views of that district while a candidate like Tim Walz did. Of course this means allowing a few DFL legislators enough independence to vote against gun restrictions and abortion funding but it would win a few more seats.
I’ll repeat my statement that even in a tough political environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten points over his DFL opponents.
“Sen. Coleman on the other hand is a) the incumbent. b) has moderate credibility, …”
ROTFLMAO!!!!
Coleman has ZERO credibility, and Minnesota is starting to realize it.
MBB:
“I’ll repeat my statement that even in a tough political environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten points over his DFL opponents.”
Well, yeah, if you count Cohen’s head-to-head. If you want to put a better face on the numbers you should add in Peter Agre, too. Maybe you could get a composite lead of _over_ 10 percent! (Peter who?)
Polls, 16 months out, don’t mean much for the challengers. Being under 50% against a generic challenger at this point, however, signals a rough road ahead for the incumbent.
Give Borbkorb some credit - he at least talked about the race. After his initial comment, I thought he was just going keep beating on Sean about yesterday’s diary (dude, we got it - that’s played out) and to reference Michelle Bachman (yes, we remember her: She’s the crazy lady who can’t keep her paws off of Bush.)
Maybe we should also consider Ole Savior (its a safe bet he’s running) and then Coleman’s average lead would be even bigger.
I wish I could forget Michele Bachmann.
Michael B. Brodkorb
Jul 31st, 2007 at 1:10 pm
I’ll repeat my statement that even in a tough political
environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten
points over his DFL opponents.
100% accurate.
100% meaningless.
That’s the game you like to play.
Flash,
One word: Iraq
Even a weasel like Norm Coleman is not going to be able to run from his positions on Iraq. The people of Minnesota will remember the Vietnam war protester who became George Bush’s defender and attack dog.
WEASEL is a good word for Normy.
It offends weasels, I know.
He’s dancing as fast as he can (except for the 2 recent failures to register a vote I see from MegaVote)…
Does Brodkorb know something about the voting machines we don’t?
Sen. Coleman’s father passed away.
A perfectly solid explanation for missed votes.
Mockingbird — The Washington Post vote tracker doesn’t have any votes missed by Norm since June 14th — but even if he did, I don’t know if you missed this or not but his Dad died; so I think it’s only fair to give him a few days off.
It should be noted that no matter how much I may disagree with him Norm has done a good job of attending as many votes as possible; with only 4 votes missed this session (approximately 1% of the total). Sean
The February Caucuses will be the determing factor in the Senate race and Poll numbers will be even closer, with Norm losing even more ground.
Iraq will once again be at the forefront of the campaign as it was in 2006. The Economy is slowing down due to the Housing slump across the Nation, high Pump Prices, ever increasing Trade Deficit.
2008 could see more blood spilled on the part of the GOP than of the Democrats.
KAthy
2008 will see more blood spilled on the part of the GOP than of the Democrats.
Pfft.
These numbers will be a pleasant dream for moonbats once people who are not obsessed with politics (like 98% of the voting public) get a load of what the DFL has cookin’.
Franken will literally self immolate during his campaign if he gets the nod. I seriously hope he is the moonbat of choice come November….he’s Hatch on steroids and LSD…and Cocaine and Pot and…
God….for the chance to toss out a few questions during his appearances!
Ceresi is a already a known quantity (a greasy, scumbag lawyer who is in it for nothing more than a nice title to go with the filthy lucre he bilked the state’s taxpayers out of) that has been rejected by the state.
Norm has nothing to worry about.
Kathy, Nitro,
I want to party with you guys!
Just a bit of advice: Dems now control the legislature in Minnesota and in Washington. The party in control is usually blamed for the economy.
George Bush will not (I am sorry to have to break this to you) be able to run for a third term.
The “I hate Bush and Life Sucks Vote DFL” worked last time but it will not work this time.
“The thing liberals fear most is that somewhere out there there is a Republican who is enjoying himself”
Ronald Reagan
“Tim from Woodbury
Flash,
One word: Iraq”
Actually, even as a left leaning moderate I continue to support this President in the battle against terror, including the Surge. The main reason Norm even registers as one of my possible candidates is his position on the war. In fact, I am probably more hawkish than he is.
The left, especially the extreme left, is going to need to be very careful playing the Iraq card. Most of us can’t wait to bring our troops home (my 21 year old stepson is currently training in California for deployment.) But a ‘dump and skate’ approach at this volatile time is risky. A sitting Sen. who has re-evaluated their decision and is open to a new direction and alternative options may be the candidate the electorate could embrace.
But thats just me!
Flash Centrisity.com
Here’s Mikey B’s spin on Norm’s poll numbers. Sorry to put this here, but I thought it merrited some comments. — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
“KSTP/Survey USA has released a new poll showing Senator Coleman with average lead over his DFL opponents of almost ten points. As I said last week on Air America, Coleman has been attacked for the last six-months by rogue out-of-state special interest groups, the Minnesota DFL, Al Franken, and Mike Ciresi. After after a series of false attacks on Senator Coleman, Coleman is still leading by comfortable margins.
The bottom line:
Mike Ciresi is running a horrible campaign for the U.S. Senate and Democrats do not seem to be excited about the prospects of Ciresi challenging Coleman. Remember, Ciresi announced an exploratory committee in February, but he didn’t start raising money until May. He’s far behind Franken in both organization and fundraising. Can he catch Franken? He could, but it will be tough.
Al Franken cannot be elected to statewide office in Minnesota. I’ve seen some of the research on Franken and he has said things that would make a goat sick. Republicans have only released portions of his comments and the worst is yet to come.
This race will continue to be close as the environment for Republicans is tough. But even in a tough political environment, Coleman has an average lead of almost ten points over his DFL opponents. ” — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
What Mikey B won’t tell you is that Norm Coleman is not in a COMFORTABLE SPOT and that he will have to answer for many things when it comes down to being crunch time. Be it Al Franken that gets the honors of facing Norm, Al will ask the tough questions of Norm. As with the late Paul Wellstone had Norm squirming all about in his seat, Al will have Norm sweating bullets and squirming!
It isn’t just the single issue of Iraq. It is how Iraq connects with everything else. While we dump $3 billion per week and (so far) over a million lives into the Iraq quagmire, we have dismantled our economy and we have no money left for much of anything else. We can’t begin to solve big, expensive problems like global warming while we spend the country’s resources making oil barons and mercenary companies rich.
That is why I like the person who hasn’t been mentioned so far: Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. He sees the big picture and is unlikely go get bogged down in the backroom deals. If Minnesotans think about this election as a job interview to find the best Senator possible, then Nelson-Pallmeyer will win. If it remains a mere horse race or simple purchase agreement, then somebody else will get it. But then we are all in trouble, because we will get a smiling and corrupt servant of the uberwealthy or an edgy and mostly negative former comic.
Flash,
You are in an ever shrinking minority.
>60% of this country are not the left nor the far left.
Charley,
I agree with you that it is not the single issue of Iraq. However, we are talking politics here. To badly paraphrase Bill Clinton: “It’s Iraq, stupid.”
While I have great respect for Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, I disagree with your conclusion.
DFL’ers — don’t forget that you lost the crown jewel in ‘06 — Gov. Pawlenty was re-elected.
As much as you want to gloat about holding on to Dayton’s seat in the U.S. Senate, the DFL would gladly trade all its victories for the Governor’s Mansion. And, you don’t have it, period.
Uh, getting ahead of ourselves here?
The election is still sixteen months away. In 1995, the GOP — and the media — thought Bill Clinton would not be re-elected because of the previous cycle’s election results. Similarly, the Democrats — and the media — think the GOP is in bad shape because of the previous cycle’s election results. Conventional wisdom was wrong in 1995 because the GOP over-played its hand, providing Clinton an opening. Similarly, the Democrats can easily over-play its hand on Iraq and provide the GOP an opening.
There’s still plenty of time on the clock for the Democrats to lose the election in Dennis Green-like fashion.
So, Reality Check, what is your take on that governor’s race? It seems to me that Pawlenty’s policies have hurt Minnesota in multiple obvious ways, but that Hatch seemed to have a very short fuse. So most Minnesotans just couldn’t vote for such an un-nice guy as Hatch, even though he might have been much better for the state.
I wonder if the same sort of dynamics would apply to a possible Coleman/Franken race? Would it be possible that folks would want to vote for that nice, smiling Norm Coleman fellow, even though he supports policies that have led us to crushing debt, untreated sickness, continuous war, crumbling schools, a deteriorating infrastructure and a very bleak future in every way?
Wtm is right that a lot can happen in 16 months. The Democrats have shown they are very adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That being said, I don’t think its going to happen.
The Iraq war is becoming less and less popular as even people who were once enthusiastic supporters are realizing what a horrible mistake the war has been. Even the administration’s analysts concede Al Qaeda is stronger than ever. Ouy soliders are over there dying while the Iraqi government is on vacation. What is going to change in 16 months? If anything, the war will be even less popular and you may see a number of Republicans (and maybe even Norm Coleman)joining Democrats calling for an end to the war.
For all their ineptitude, the Democrats have been the party that has been trying to end the war or to at least bring some accountability to it. That makes a stark contrast with the Republicans and an easy choice for voters. I wouldn’t have thought that Al Franken could get elected here, but with the Bush mess that Coleman has to defend, I think its going to happen.
Funny thing about the war and public opinion is that many of the Democrats in the front of races voted for or supported the war, its continued funding and the Patriot Act, twice. They play a little left during the primaries and then snap back to wishy-washy middle ground as soon as they face the election.
Hopefully the public will figure out that we need people smart enough to not support that kind of crap before it becomes a disaster rather than after the fact.
It’s quite obvious that Mikey B has a hard on, so to speak, for Al Frnaken. With all the posts he has dedicated to AL of stuff from 30 plus years ago that he once said, did, or thought, that that is going to sway voters?
Of the many times I have seen Al since the beginning of the year, he spoke with passion ans directly about the issues at hand. He’s been traveling the state, getting to know voters, and he is hitting hard about the state of this State and the Nation. He’s also been direct about Norm’s blind devotion in all reality to the President rather than to the people he works for. I think the ad Al took out a few weeks ago had some affect as to how voters look at Norm and MikeyB will not acknowledge that.
Dan,
If things stay the same — the war continues unabated with no promising results — then I agree the political climate will remain hostile to Republicans. That being stated, I don’t believe things will stay the same because the reality in Iraq and here won’t allow it to.
Either the war will improve or it won’t. In either case, the Democrats have a problem because they are going to have to either appease their base by de-funding the war and accept the political and human fall-out from such a decision or continue the game of footsie with the President and accept the wrath of their anti-war base in the form of increased protests and a damaged public image. Either way, the ring-around-the-rosie dance the Democrats have been engaged in is going to end within sixteen months.
The “blame the GOP and President Bush” game isn’t a great talking point when you’re in charge. At some point, the Democrats can no longer pass the buck and are going to have to take some responsibility for the outcome of the war, which won’t redound to their benefit.
Wtm, the problem is that the Dems aren’t “in charge” now. If they were, we’d be in the process of withdrawing troops. The thing that is stopping that from happening is Bush’s vetos (or the threat of vetos) and the Republican members of congress sustaining those vetos.
Iraq is going to be a bad situation for whoever comes out on top during the next election cycle. The war was a mistake but those that support pulling out quickly will have to live with the blame if that goes badly. But as usual, politics is about the next election and not long term reality.
Dan!! You said it best!!! It has been the Bush Vetoes, threats of more vetoes, and the GOP devoted to Bush to sustain the vetoes that has caused many problems. It is not that the Democrats are not getting things done, they are. It is tough to get the key legislation passed when there is obstruction like that. Norm Coleman has been part of that obstruction.
Kathy,
Come on, you’re smarter than that. There has been little “obstruction” in fact. The Dems can’t even agree among themselves on spending and other issues. They have spent more time re-naming federal buildings and launching investigations than anything else.
Moreover, on the Iraq issue, there have been several news stories, including an article in the NY Times on Monday, about how the surge is working and violence is lessening all across Iraq. Yesterday a Washington Post reporter asked Rep. James Clyburn how Democrats would react if Gen. Petraeus said in September that the surge is successful and we would be foolish to pull out now. Clyburn’s response was, “It would be a real big problem for us” if the surge worked. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001380.html
Yep, it’s going to be a big problem among the electorate if the surge is successful because what party wants to be against winning a war? But it will also be a big problem among the Democrat base if the Democrat Congress doesn’t continue its march to defeat because that’s what the base wants. So, you see, you can’t have it both ways, and blaming it on the GOP is a lame cop-out because you are the governing party.
Voters expect results, and now that they aren’t seeing any from the Democrat-controlled Congress, other than conducting partisan investigations, they aren’t liking it too much, hence the abysmal approval ratings for Congress. Keep up the good work.
Chris, Little Obstruction? Only more cloture votes than ever before in the history of senate for the time frame. Who do you think you’re kidding with that weak cheese. You are such a tool.
Do we need a lesson in American government here, guys?
While there are a lot of things the Democrats can’t agree on, when they pass a bill (and they have passed bills), that is all the agreement they need. Now if Bush signs a bill passed by the Democratic House and Senate, it becomes law. If Bush vetos the bill, and the Republican minority sustains the veto, then it is, in fact, the Republicans who have “obstructed” what the Democrats wanted to do. Its the same thing with the cloture votes - the Democrats vote for something, but it goes nowhere because the Republicans keep them from getting 60 votes.
Now, I am not using “obstructed” as a negative term. The Republicans have the right to obstruct Democratic legislation, just as Bush has the right to veto it. That is how the system works. But it will be very clear to voters in 2008 that the Democrats are working to end the war and the Republicans have obstructed those efforts and are working to keep the war going.
As to the success of the surge, didn’t the Sunnis just quit the gover — you know what, never mind. Why even bother. If you guys want to believe the surge is working, that’s great. I hope you keep on believing that right up until the 2008 elections.
“THEY WILL GREET US AS LIBERATORS!”
Dan and Rick,
I guess we’ll have to get back to the regular give and take of politics sooner rather than later — I’d rather wait myself. But before you spout off to me about how Republicans are being obstructionist and how the war is a failure, read this article from the Washington Post where Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC and third in line in the House) said up to 47 Democrats wouldn’t even vote to end the war if the surge is succeeding (as even the New York Times acknowledged yesterday). http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001380.html
If you notice the time stamp,I posted well before the tragedy.