So I was going to write a post today about the redistricting that will occur at the next census. I was going to prattle on and on about how this was the most important story of the week, how we should all be on the edges of our seats watching whats going to happen with this yadda yadda yadda.
But I’d like to thank Michael Brodkorb for giving me the intro I needed.
Ladies and gentlemen, if there is anything that should inspire you to spend the next four years knocking on doors, recruiting the best candidates you can and working as hard as you can to ensure a Democratic majority in 2010 it is this line:
“I expect to be actively involved in the 2010 redistricting process in Minnesota,”
Friends don’t let friends, let Michael Brodkorb anywhere near our Democratic process.
Some more on redistricting after the jump.
The Strib had an AP article this week about redistricting.
“Minnesota is among four states hoping to hang on to a seat in Congress after the 2010 census, the state demographer said… He said the state is competing with Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.”
Minnesota is the only state in the Upper Midwest, not to have lost a seat in the last 20 years and the only state in a 600 mile radius to not have lost a seat since 1960 (Pennsylvania has lost at least two in every census since 1960 — ouch). So we have been really lucky.
Why should we focus on keeping our seats? Well the article lays out a few of the reasons, if you lose a seat the most obvious result is losing importance in the electoral college, we’d go from 10 votes to 9. We’d lose importance in the disbursement of Government funds, because Medicare and Medicaid are dispensed according to population.
The next question to think about, is, if we lose a seat, what then?
Redistricting!
Well, okay, there can be redistricting even if we don’t lose a seat, but there will be drastic redistricting if we lose a seat. As Brodkorb at MDE advocates, he wants to consolidate the urban core of the 4th and 5th congressional district. The practical effect of this is making 1 Democratic seat with a Partisan Index of about D 20+ which would mean that no Republican ever would win the seat.
The Republicans aim would be to consolidate DFL power into as few districts as possible, and give as many districts as good a Republican partisan index as possible. I speculate that a DFL plan would be to weaken the urban core’s Partisan Index enough to pick up another seat or two while keeping as many seats as possible centered in the urban core. (No district in the state has a higher Republican index than the 7th, represented by Colin Peterson, at an index of R6+)
There are lots of possibilities to make the redistricting process more fair or, conversely, as I promoted earlier in this post, lots of ways to make the redistricting process more partisan.
Consider it my partisan affiliation, but until we have a fair, non-partisan redistricting body, go out and knock on some doors, and give your dough to Democrats because we wouldn’t want MDE involved in redistricting any more than we’d want a few kicks in the head.
Needless to say, Republican or Democrat the most important story of the week was speculating on whether or not Minnesota is going to lose a seat in 2010. So, keep the pressure on Tim Pawlenty to support transportation upgrades that will allow our population to grown (although, it’s too late to effect 2010) and support the education policies that have allowed Minnesota to grow for the last 30 years, and keep the Republicans on the run, so when it’s time to redesign the districts in 2010 its in the hands of a DFL majority.
Now this is funny. I can’t wait to see the gerrymandered districts the DFL cooks up in two years. Thank God Pawlenty will still be Governor to veto what they cook up and send the redistricting to the courts where at least a fair shake can be had.
Yeah man we can’t have partisan Republicans in controll we need partisan Democrats. Fuck the citezens of this great state they don’t matter, it’s all about the Democrats beating the Republicans.
Ain’t politics great, either way they waste your money for BS to win the next election. Fuck leading in any meaningful way another election is coming and god damn it there are more idiots voting then not so play to the idiots with no regard for how bad they hurt the average Minnesotan. Fuck Democrats, Fuck Democrats, when is the Bullshit going to end?
Chris, I would like to thank you for coming around and accepting that the DFL will be in the majority after 2010.
But, the best news that you forget about, is that 2010 is also when we elect our Governor, so we can have a DFL controlled legislature and a DFLer in the Governors mansion.
Sean
Sean:
Minneapolis and St. Paul belong in the same congressional district. It makes complete sense - one urban core congressional district.
Let’s just make sure it’s fair. Cripes you righties are a bunch of whiny children.
It is getting very very old.
Umm, MB, have you ever BEEN to Minneapolis and St. Paul? Culturally, they are about as different as two cities can be. I grew up in the suburbs and even I can see that. But I can see why you’d want to create one DFL district instead of risking having those poor/minority/immigrant urban people affecting elections in multiple places.
The differences between Minneapolis and St. Paul are almost zero. The demographics are similar, the politics are similar and the geography is similar. I can tell you after living in both cities for years and other major cities in the U.S. that there is no reason to not put them in one district.
In the end I hope that neither the DFL or Republicans have control of both the congress and the Governor’s office because either would likely gerrymander the lines for their own purpose. I have a feeling many other Minnesotans would feel the same way. Just one more reason to split your ticket and not be beholden to one party.
Sean,
I believe the redistricting plan begins in 2010 and takes a couple of years to work through. In 2010, the DFL controlled Senate will not have been up for re-election. That was where my comments came from. But nice try though ;-P
The only thing that’s important about 2010 is the number of people living where they live. All of the work happens in 2011 with the elections in the new districts being 2012. I was part of it last time around and the single urban district wasn’t the only BS the republicans tried to pull.
2010 is an election year and its doubtful that Pawlenty will be running for a third term, or could win one. Our Lt Gov may be up for it, though I forget her name. 2008 will determine if Minnesota is ready for a DFL Governor or not.
One design for redistricting can be to put the 4th CD all in Ramsey and Washington County (Goodbye Bachman), put Brooklyn Center, Crystal, New Hope, Golden Valley and St Louis Park in the 3rd CD (time to retire Ramstad), and give Kline a run for his moneyby throwing in Richfeild and Bloomington in the 2nd CD, let the 7th CD cover St Cloud and the tri county area once again, and bring the 8thCD back down to Anoka County. That will leave the Republicans with a chance- if Colin Peterson retires or dies.
See Brodkorb, we can play that game too.
Chris, the DFL Senate WILL be up for election in 2010 and again in 2012 after the news lines have been drawn. This group was just elected last year, they get four years.
You’re Welcome.
djz,
If re-districting work began in the 2010 session, the DFL Senate would be the same as it is today. You do understand that the 2010 SESSION begins before the 2010 ELECTION right?
Why can’t we emulate Iowa on this? Our neighbor to the south has taken the Legislature out of redistricting and put it in the hands of a non- or bipartisan commission. Isn’t this better than the charade every ten years of Democratic plan/Republican plan/decided by the courts?
Randy - amen to that.
Chris —
The way I understand it is the group elected in 2010 will be the ones who receive the information from the national census bureau and are charged with redistricting. The census will occur during the 2010 calendar year and therefore the result aren’t available until after the end of the 2010 session.
Sean
Sean,
You’re right. For some reason, I was thinking that re-districting began before the 2010 election. What’s really funny is that Minnesota is at risk of losing a seat to Republican states including Georgia.
“Republican states including Georgia”
Will there be any left in 2010?
That depends on if the GOP can successfully purge that particular wing of the party whose leanings we dare not name. A new political animal could emerge during this interim, the progressive Republican.
I’ll just bet ya’all who think that Mpls and St paul should be separate would argue that Saint Paul and the 6th, including Delano are a closer match.
Gimme a break.
First, I’m with Randy on the Iowa-style non-partisan redistricting panel. Got relatives down there and they say it has been a good way to go.
Second, regardless of your partisan bent, it should be our collective goal to keep eight House seats. Losing one of those seats could have serious reprocussions regarding committee seniority, be it Dem or Repub.
Common wisdom states that the two groups most likely to not fill out the forms and be counted are lower income and immigrants groups, both of which can be found in almost every corner of the state. Get them counted!
We can fight over the lines later.