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We’ll be following this closely as the day and, if need be, the week progresses, but here are some initial thoughts:
First of all, this is anyone’s seat if Ramstad is retiring. Congressman Ramstad has done an amazing job in this district of securing a strong constituent base across parties through a combination of solid name recognition and bipartisan work in Congress. Absent his considerable clout, it is going to be impossible for a Republican new-comer to even come close to Ramstad’s margins in the 3rd. The Dem index is high and increasingly the suburban districts in the 3rd are represented at the state level by Democrats.

Second, this has ramifications in the Senate race. Jim Ramstad helps Republicans state-wide by turning out independents in the 3rd and convincing them to vote Republican. Without his presence Coleman will pick up less votes in the 3rd than he would with Ramstad there; that’s almost a given.

Third, there’s already a list of likely suspects on both side of the aisles (in no particular order):
 DFL

• State Senator Terri Bonoff. Senator Bonoff was an instant celebrity when she took SD43 as a Democrat and has since honed a strong, moderate voting record in the Senate.
• State Rep. Melissa Hortmann. Often described as one of the DFL’s up-and-comers, Rep. Hortman first gained notoriety for turing 43B blue and has since risen quickly in the House ranks to become an assistant majority leader in only her second term.
• Former candidate for Hennepin County Attorney, Andy Lugar. There were rumblings around the time that rumors of David Gaither’s entrance into this race were circulating that Mr. Lugar might enter the race in the 3rd. If there were any truth to those rumors, I would imagine that Mr. Lugar would be very tempted were Ramstad to retire.

Before moving on to the Republicans, let me just say that these three form a veritable DFL dream-team for MNpublius. All three are strong, charismatic, moderate DFLers that have deep bases in the 3rd district. We’ve covered all three extensively, supported them in all their races, and would be ecstatic to see any of them become the nominee in the 3rd.

GOP

• State Senator Geoff Michel. Sen. Michel is a likely contender due to his district (the moderate Edina) and his firm GOP loyalties. Sen Michel has done an impressive job of masquerading a very party-line voting record as moderate in Edina and has gained a loyal following in the state GOP because of it. For these reasons alone, Michel must be considering a run.
• Former State Senator and former Pawlenty Chief-of-Staff, David Gaither. Earlier this year we reported that David Gaither was weighing a run against Ramstad in the 3rd CD primary. We still believe that those rumors were true and Gaither was simply convinced not to run by state GOP insiders. Absent Ramstad, Gaither is very likely to throw his hat in the ring.
• State Rep. Erik Paulsen (42B). Representative Paulsen’s name has been thrown around for a while now as a possibility for higher levels in this state. His current district placement puts him in a good position to move on this opportunity.

Of course I’m probably missing people, but I think these all represent likely contenders if Ramstad announces his retirement. But with Republicans hurting nationally this cycle, one has to wonder why Ramstad would even allow open season to be declared on the 3rd CD — a district that has remained Republican largely (and some might say, solely) because of his presence. Moreover, the GOP runs the risk of nominating a more conventional Republican in an open primary due to the small but rabid GOP base in the 3rd. If the Ramstad haters show up in force to the convention, the DFL will get one more feather in its cap.