1) Why No Announcements?
Over the last few days, the Minnesota blogs have been awash in potential candidates announcing that they are not running, but we have seen very few (two) candidates throw their hats in the ring. Each side has a handful of candidates still weighing their options and even the two candidates who are basically in the race (Bonoff and Paulsen) have not made official statements to the press yet. So why is everyone so trigger shy? One possibility has to do with the FEC.
Jim Ramstad announced his retirement just two weeks before the end of the 3rd Quarter. By the time candidates had a chance to weigh their options and talk to supporters, we were 10 days out from the end of the quarter. 10 days is not enough time for most candidates to build a respectable warchest, so several are probably waiting until the start of October (and the 4th Quarter) to enter the race. I mean you don’t want to look like Dick Day or Randy Demmer.
This is not to say that Bonoff or Paulsen won’t file with the FEC for the 3rd Quarter - anything is possible and if either one managed to raise north of 100k in just over 10 days, that would be quite the statement of strength.
My guess is that we’ll see a lot otf people make up their minds early next week.
UPDATE - MDE reports that Erik Paulsen will “form a federal campaign committee next week.” Monday is the start of the 4th Quarter.
UPDATE 2 - Rachel Stassen-Berger of the Pioneer Press reports that:
Meanwhile, state Sen. Terri Bonoff, a Democrat, has set up a Web site for her bid for the Ramstad seat. The site is mighty thin on details but does allow visitors to contribute to her campaign.
Bonoff said she is running and has already raised “significantly more” than $10,000 for her bid. Once candidates raise $10,000 they must file papers with the Federal Election Commission. She said she’s filed those papers.
So we’ll have at least one FEC Report to look forward to in the 3rd District.
2) Redistricting
One thing that isn’t being talked about much is the effect the Ramstad retirement will have on redistricting. Minnesota is dangerously close to losing a House seat during the next census. Oberstar and Peterson will remain chairmen of their respective committees through 2012 (absent a GOP takeover of the House) making retirement unlikely for either. Kline, Bachmann, Ellison, McCollum and Walz are all too early in their careers for retirement to be a real possibility (though I know some people who would like to see Walz run for Governor in 2010).
In any case, whoever wins the 3rd is likely to be the low man on the totem pole come redistricting - a dangerous place to be when a state is losing a House seat. I’m not saying that anyone is going to decide against running for Congress because of this, but it is interesting to think about.
Great observations on the timing of the announcements relative to the quarter-end. I think they’d rather not even be on the radar than turn in a low number.
Regarding redistricting, I agree that the 3rd will be a dangerous place to be. It is so evenly split that whoever is in power will want to cherry pick their base from the map and leave much of the already-red exurbs in Kline or Bachman’s district.
I for one assumed that the Rammer would retire when redistricting was about to occur, not this early.
Redistricting point #2: Kline’s district is definately more red than Bachman’s — both Kennedy and Bachman had close margins of victory, certainly not gauranteed. If the Dems are in power, I could see a bunch of north inner-ring suburbs (like Hortman’s neighborhood) going to what is now the 6th to provide a fighting chance for the Dems.
Excellent points made about FEC timing, and especailly about the redistricting — -I hadn’t thought about that.
I also agree with the idea that some of the northwest suburbs, like Brooklyn Park could wind up included in the sixth district, where it most certainly would tilt in favor of the DFL.
The 6th is already more competitive than Republicans would like….adding some of these cities/suburbs would strengthen the chances of a DFL victory.
Does the prospect of redistrict weigh high on the minds of potential candidates? Maybe — probably not, but excellent analysis by Zack.
The 3rd will have significantly more diversity, which will impact the race in 2012. (isn’t that when the redistricting will come into play?)
Redistricting will probably include the loss of one district, I would guess that Peterson’s district will come down into the cities more and Ellison’s would move south into Dakota Co. This will change things (Kline is not a darling of the Eastern Hennepin Co. voters, and Bachman or whom ever is in her seat (presumably not kissing the president) will have some interesting dynamics to face from NW Minnesota. But this is all speculation - It depends on who controls the redistricting process.
Me? I’ll vote for Alfalfa.
The 6th breaks up strictly by county at this point, but I could be wrong about parts of Washington. I kind of doubt that they would move the district lines into parts of Hennepin County at all. Rogers, Maple Grove will probably remain in what is currently the 3rd.
Forgive my ignorance but is the 2nd really more red then the 6th? I know Klein won by a larger margin than Bachmann but his opponent was not as well financed by any means. How do the districts go for President, Gov and what not?
I tell ya what I do know: Bachmann’s gotta be happy about Ramstad stepping down: It takes a little pressure off her as she no longer the top target republican in the state. Funds will be split to protecting Walz, going on offence in the 3rd, and probably a wait and see what happens in the 6th. We cannot escape that fact that the 3rd was not in play the last few cycles and both Democrats and Republicans will need to dig deep for that fight.
Excellent question on how the potential (some would say impending) redistricting affects certain candidates. While a 1st term Senator can go in and really leave their mark, a Congressperson isn’t really on the radar until the 3rd or 4th term. Sure, they have a vote (1 of 435) but they sit at the very end of the table on some pretty obscure committees.
If you are a young gun with all the political potential in the world, do you really want to sign up for what might only be a 2-term stint? Or are you better off waiting for a future Senate or Governor seat?
I think you’re right on the mark as far as FEC timing goes.
As for redistricting, if the DFL wins the 3rd (not impossible) and is finally in a position to draw the lines in 2012, then we’d be working to protect the 6 members we have - not messing w/ the 2 repub districts. As for which district will be drawn out if we lose a seat, it could be any district for any rationale and it’s not really worth calculating at this point.
One thing that can be clearly calculated is that the 6th is much redder than the 2nd. Follow my numbers: In ‘00 Bush beat Gore by 6 points in the 2nd and 11 points in the 6th. In ‘04, Bush beat Kerry by 9 points in the 2nd and 15 points (!) in the 6th. In ‘06, Klobuchar beat Kennedy by 10 points in the 2nd and by about 4 points in the 6th.
The 6th elected Bachman to an open seat by 14 points while Kline won his last couple of elections by 16 points - but his incumbency and relative sanity are the main reasons he won with such a wide margin.
1. Martin Sabo announced his resignation at about the same time in the FEC quarter last year, but it didn’t stop a dozen DFLers from announcing their campaigns (and filing short FEC reports). I don’t think the same issues are at play here. I think there just aren’t as many people likely to get in the race.
2. Congressional districts are drawn by the state legislature (in practice, historically, actually by the state courts, but that’s another matter). While some Members of Congress may have more influence over the state legislature than others, their congressional seniority is really not a direct influence on how maps are likely to be redrawn in 2012.
My two cents.
Still, becoming a Congressperson, even for one or two terms, really raises you name rec and fund-raising potential. Which are good things if you want to run for Governor or Senate latter on.
A district in the rough area of the sixth with some more inner-ring suburbs would be a heck of a campaign. You’ll have areas that voted in Ellison or McCollum voting in the same race as Big Lake. All the range of views of a state-wide race, combined with the personal rancor that comes with a district-wide race.
Aaron -
1) The 5th District race is nothing like the 3rd. Sabo announced his retirement just weeks before the endorsing convention. Candidates had to get in right away and start courting delegates if they had any chance of being competitive. Moreover, the most important metric in that race was delegate support - cash on hand is far more important in the CD 3 race. Comparing these two races is apples and oranges.
2) When a state loses a seat in Congress, the least senior member is often the odd man out. This is especially true if partisan control of the redistricting process is split (as it currently is in MN). For an example, look to Illinois or Michigan in the last round of redistricting.
It is hard to compare a congressman retiring in September of an odd year vs. september of an even year.
Members of Congress don’t directly influence the redrawing of congressional maps, but their “star power” does. You wouldn’t want to force your party to go head-to-head in a new district with a popular incumbent from the other party, you’d rather just “give” that district to them by adding to their majority. For example, if Repubs win the legislature back and MN loses a Congressional seat, they could very well add some of CD6’s blue counties into 8 (Oberstar’s forever blue district), add Hennepin (CD3) to CD6, and make CD6 an even safer red seat.
I won’t tack this on to the end of Zack’s part about redistricting, but if you look at (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2000-census-reapportionment.png) this map, you’ll notice a few things.
States that have comparable demographic data (ie. Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, — middle-to-large midwestern states that have either lost population or held reasonably steady) lost votes in 2000 as states in the south and west have grown.
If you look at (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_apportionment#1920-present) congressional apportionment for the last 40 or so years, you’ll see that Minnesota is the only state in the midwest/northeast that hasn’t lost a CD seat. Wisconsin, a state that we are very comparable to, has lost 1 each in the last two decades.
Minnesota was first in line to lose a seat in 2010, a few things have opened that up to question, with the exodus of New Orlenians after Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana will probably lose a seat in the next apportionment. If we successfully capture new residents moving in with business growth we could grow enough to avoid the chopping block again.
Sean
edited: links weren’t working (probably my own dumbass fault) just inserted links into text.
Let’s all revisit this in 2011 or 2012, eh?
It is the DFLers who would add red cities to the Repub districts of the 2nd and the 6th, not the Republicans. Repubs won with about 56% last year in both districts in the best Democratic year in a generation. These ARE safe GOP seats, I mean I think Tinklenberg and Sarvi are much better candidates than Wetterling and Rowley, but it will take another wave as big as ‘06’s to just to get us into the game.
In 2002, the GOP got the perfect lines to maximize their congressional numbers by making the 4th and 5th 70% plus Democratic and making the 2nd and 6th (recently held by DFLers Luther and Minge) so Republican that we couldn’t hold them.
The smart thing if we got the same # of districts (even money) would be to make 1, 3, 4, 5 55-60% DFL, keep 7 & 8 same as they are now and put every Republican we can find into the 2nd and 6th. Republicans, on the other hand, want more than 2 seats in congress and would try to do the opposite.
St. Paul Sage -
I agree.
Okay my brain hurts now….. Lets change the topic to NASCAR.
“Let’s all revisit this in 2011 or 2012, eh?”
Fair enough - we have a few years before we need to sort out the details. But the question germain to this point in time is: Does the shadow of upcoming reapportionment dissuade any candidates from running today?
The answer is clear: Maybe.
Though does an expanding Twin Cities population give us a chance to slough off the lost seat to some other poor state? Let’s hope.
Those who watch the situation closely (I’m referring to Kiplinger, not the blog) are predicting a 1-seat loss for MN:
http://southlaketonka.blogspot.com/2007/09/power-shift-minnesota-likely-to-lose.html
Here at the State DFL Central Committee meeting:
Rick Kahn spoke on behalf of Terri Bonhoff, Melissa Hortman and Mike Cohen all spoke as candidates or potential candidates for 3rd CD