As news filters into the MNPublius home office we’ll share all of the information we get with you.
The biggest thing in looking at this list is seeing how many people have been spendin’ hundreds since they’ve had small faces. The money in this race is deep and long.
[Matt Adds: I’ve updated a few things below. The more notable changes are Hortman moving to the “in” category, Luther moving to the “for sure not in” category, Bonoff moving up to the “strongly considering” category, and Ruud moving down into the “most likely not in” category. Details as to why are integrated into the info below.
Also note that this is a “live post.” That is, this post is constantly being revised and updated with new information. So, just because the time-stamp doesn’t change, doesn’t mean there’s not new information here. ]
As of right now:
In
Andy Luger It’s hard to look at this race, and not see Andy Luger as the Gorilla in the corner. He campaigned in the 3rd for two years for Hennepin County Attorney. He did an amazing job of reaching out to Republicans in that race, so he’s got great name recognition. He’s been working hard as a Clinton adviser/ State Steering Committee member, so he’s got great potential reach in national fundraising in this race. I think that currently Luger has to be seen as the leader in the DFL endorsement, the Primary and maybe the general. Several other members of this list have been at one time or another big Luger supporters(Humphrey, Ruud, Bonoff). How that will effect their plans in this situation is up in the air. As well, after saying that Luger is in, I have heard blow back about whether he is in or is still discussing with his family the political realities of running again. I’m going to go with Luger running until I hear otherwise.
Buck Humphrey 
I first met Buck Humphrey in a bathroom. I kid you not. And, in the most awkward of moments I couldn’t help but gush about how his Grandfathers 1948 DNC Speech helped make me a Democrat. And it’s situations like that, no matter how weird or how awkward, and his father’s connections as a state wide elected official, and the fact that he shares a last name with arguably the greatest Minnesotan ever, it all adds up to give him immediate credibility in the race. As well, Buck through his work while running for Secretary of State and organizing in the 90’s has made lots of contacts in the group formerly known as Minnesotans for A Democratic Majority, a group of well connected, well financed young professionals. And it’s because of that money, the money that at was least by extension the same people who have supported Mike Erlandson, and because of his amazingly high name recognition, he should be seen a real candidate for this seat. [Matt adds: I think Buck is a great guy and everything I’ve heard indicates that he’s running in this one, but I’m not sold on him in this race yet (which doesn’t mean I can’t be, just that I have reservations. Buck’s got something to prove here and maybe he can do it, but I’d place him as the least strong of the three candidates we consider “in” right now.]
State Representative Melissa Hortman [Matt adds: I’ve moved Hortman up based on the Star Tribune citing her as a for sure] Representative Hortman has to be seen as the strongest female possibility in this race. She is from everything I have heard strongly considering running. Emphasis on the strongly. If she were to gain the support of EMILY’s List, and figuring the positive demographics (in suburban districts moderate Women play disproportionately well, because they have a built in constituency in females, as well in speaking to several prominent DFL activists in the district they figure that the caucuses have a 10% female margin, approximately 55%-45% as well they say the the DFL endorsement convention featured a majority of female delegates). Republicans are already using words to describe her that aren’t fit for print (if you really care, go look at MDE’s comment section) which leads me to believe she’s the strongest female candidate in the eyes of the opposition, she has a great record in the state house and is in the very top tier of candidates if she decides to get in.
Strongly Considering
State 
Senator Terri Bonoff The same dynamics that apply for Hortman apply here. Positive district demographics, possible big money from national groups and a good record at the state Senate. [Matt adds: I’ve struck out the mention of three female candidates here due to the increasing likelihood that Ruud will not get in this. Word on the street is that Senator Bonoff is doing all the things that one who is looking to run for Congress might do. That doesn’t put her in the “in” category yet, but I have moved her up to “strongly considering.” Senator Bonoff would be extremely strong in the general considering her moderate issue stances and ability to reach out to diverse constituencies (in her last election she was endorsed by labor and the chamber of commerce) but we’ll just have to wait and see if she drops her hat in or not.]
Weighing their Options/Calling the Realtor
Former State Senator Steve Kelley Steve Kelley is the only candidate I can see running for this seat from outside of the district or moving into the district just for the race and winning. Great cache among the activists and primary voters in the 3rd. Good name recognition with his service as a State Senator, and a statewide donor base who know him from his electrifying performance last year at the state convention, and his runs for Governor and Attorney General. [Matt Adds: I strongly disagree. Kelley will have an extremely tough time moving into this district and not ingraining the word “opportunist” in every 3rd districter’s head. After so many moves in so little time, I think Kelley would be wise to sit this out; but that’s just my opinion.]
State Representative Steve Simon There is a good reason why Representative Simon is seen as one of the future superstars in DFL politics in the state — because he is cooler than the other side of the pillow. The exact terminology I heard from someone who spoke with Representative Simon is that he was flattered that his name has been brought up, he won’t count anything out, but that he is focused on the state house right now. I’d drop him a little further on this list, because it doesn’t appear that he will get in the race, but idle speculation never hurt anyone except those who speculated on the future popularity of the Pinto. [Matt adds: I think Simon would have a much easier time moving into the district and running than Kelley would. But with a seat in the State House, that leaves Simon with a lot to lose. Simon’s amazing and I would hate to see him gamble so much and lose this early in such a promising career].
Most likely not in:
State Representative Denise Dittrich [Matt adds: sources say Dittrich is a no go, but there’s still a chance] Here at the HQ we haven’t heard much about Rep. Dittrich seriously considering a run. But we have heard a rumor that she spoke to the DCCC prior to Congressman Ramstad’s retirement. Representative Dittrich has some personal wealth, and I can’t help but guess that maybe (note: I am speculating wildly here, treat it as such) with the DCCC looking at the positive national outlook for Dems in 2008 they were mining in districts that they usually wouldn’t have given as much interest in, like ones represented by a very popular moderate Republican that he won with nearly 70% of the vote. And Representative Dittrich’s personal wealth would give her a good start to a campaign. We haven’t heard anything about any deals or anything in concrete, just that she talked to the DCCC. And her mention in Chris Cillizza’s The Fix blog yesterday only gives credence to the idea that people in Washington had her on the mind.
For sure not in:
Former Congressman Bill Luther [for sure not in] MNPublius is reporting that former Congressman Bill Luther has decided NOT to run for the 3rd Congressional district.
State Representative Maria Ruud MNPublius is reporting that State Representative Maria Ruud has decided NOT to run for the 3rd Congressional district.
So, there it is, we’ll keep you updated as the list changes, grows, shrinks, and solidifies. Thanks for coming to MNPublius and come back now y’hear.
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A quick observation. This is - at best - a 50-50 proposition for Democrats. The district is trending blue, but that’s a trend, not a reality. We need a strong candidate, not a perennial loser. So, off the bat, could we PLEASE eliminate Steve Kelley and Buck Humphrey from consideration. They can’t win; and both have proven it.
Same with Andy Luger. He can’t win, either. Good-bye.
So, among these candidates listed, who has won a narrow, tough race against a favored Republican?
Maria Ruud (biggest upset of 2004, no less). Steve Simon, who has shown the capacity to raise serious cash, and knocked off a GOP incumbent. Hortmann, less so, but still a great potential candidate.
Those three, it seems to me, are the ideal. Not the usual losers.
Well, the first thing Andy Luger should do (after he shaves off his beard) is remove the link on his website to the directory of abortion clinics. I’d probably just start over with that whole website.
Melissa Hortman and Maria Ruud ran hard in districts that were deemed unlikely DFL victories. In Hortman’s case she made three runs before winning. Now that Ramstad has announced he won’t run again this is a race that is winnable - anyway there would be some poetic balance in seeing Hortman or Ruud emerge as the candidate….
Jensen: completely agree. Kelley and Humphrey should both be out. Perennial losers indeed.
This is a huge opportunity. Let’s not blow it with a weak candidate.
Steve Kelley isn’t likely to get into this. He still hasn’t retired all of his debt from the last cycle, has he? He also seems to like being a fellow over at the Humphrey Institute.
I’m curious as to why Andy Luger can’t win. Because he couldn’t beat Mike Freeman for HCA? Let’s see what he could do against the GOP. I think he’s in, and I think he’ll be a tough, smart, disciplined campaigner that will put the issues first. It will be interesting to see if him getting in will keep anyone else out.
Steve Simon is an interesting option I hadn’t thought about. Is he actually in the district? I’m a big fan of Steve’s.
Melissa Hortman is pretty awesome too. Emily’s List would be a big benefit to her, and I think she’s earned enough standing to wait a bit before making an announcement, which means she could really get everything lined up and start out the gate strong.
Sean - Help me out here: why do “situations” such as the one you describe with Buck “give him immediate credibility in the race”??? The situation, as you described it, entailed you gushing to Buck about his grandfather.
In either case, Buck is a terrible candidate. Awful. In fact, he might be one of the worst state-wide DFL candidates of the post-War period. Why, you ask?
Because BUCK LOST TO KIFFMEYER. How do you manage that? ‘nuff said.
So now you think he’s credible to run for the much tougher 3rd CD seat. Please.
Those young yuppie dems who supported him (and who should be trying to induce collective amnesia about Erlandson’s pathetic race in the 5th) should put their support behind a Hortman, Ruud, or Simon. Good, moderate suburban candidates who have won against republicans or in republican areas. That’s the top qualification to be the DFL candidate in this (sorry, Luger, you lost, too).
I’m with Jensen and Disco. Though this might be hoping too much, I sincerely hope that the 3rd district DFL restrains itself and nominates a winning candidate - not a perennial loser or someone totally and completely ideologically out of step with the area. We don’t need a Joe Lieberman, but if anyone thinks that a Wellstone/Ellison liberal can win in the third, well, that anyone is nuts.
Thus, I’m open to hearing from Hortman, Ruud, Bonoff, and Simon. Suburban dems who appeal to swing voters. Anything less loses. Sounds like Hortman and Bonoff are in. I spoke to a very active 3rd CD feminist who told me that Simon is calling around, gauging support. As the only male in that informal sub-caucus, he’s an intriguing pick. Problem is, I’m told, he’s a few blocks out of the district. On the upside, he can move, and he’s probably the most capable fundraiser in the state house. I’m connected with one of the unions public employee unions, and his reputation with us is stellar. I don’t know about the others, though.
Probably Hortman is the toughest challenge and barrier to Simon or anyone else. Luger will fade as better candidates get into the race.
Hortman, Simon, and Ruud would all be strong candidates for the DFL in the general election. The question is could they gain the endorsement. The tendency (recently) has been for Republican and Democratic congressional district endorsing conventions to pick the most shrill and extreme candidate. Ellison + Bachmann for example. I don’t see the Democrats moving away from that.
The HCA race isn’t going to be a great indicator for this race, folks. It was a non-partisan race, and although Luger had the backing of the DFL, Mike Freeman had massive name-recognition advantages from his previous experience in the *same job* (oh, and that gubernatorial bid too).
I managed to reach Andy by phone yesterday, but he was on his way to the airport to catch a flight to New York — all he could/would say was that he is “strongly considering”. His wife is out of town right now as well, so they definitely have some thinking to do.
As for Simon — there’s no requirement that a candidate live in the district in which they’re running, only that they live in the state. However, Simon is several blocks away from the 3rd, well into St. Louis Park. Wouldn’t take *too* much for him to establish residency, though. Still, as much as I like and respect Steve, there’s a surprisingly deep list of candidates already in CD3….I dunno.
Let me play devil’s advocate on Steve Kelley:
1. In 2003, Mike Hatch was the assumed 2006 DFL candidate for governor. No one gave Kelley a chance. I remember reading pundit predictions going into the DFL convention - Kelley wouldn’t last through the second ballot. Well, Kelley nearly topped Hatch around the fifth ballot. A legitimate argument exists that had the DFL nominated Kelley instead of Hatch, the anti-Republican year would have nicked Pawlenty, too.
2. As for the AG’s race, Kelley did not run the best primary campaign. But Hatch’s under-the-table support helped Lori Swanson take the primary (as did Bill Luther’s entry). In the primary, Kelley trounced Swanson in the Third. Swanson narrowly lost the district to Jeff Johnson (by about 100 votes); Kelley easily would have won the district.
3. Kelley is arguably the most popular DFLer in the Third. Still. The district loves him. And he’s moderate enough to appeal to the independents who will decide the next representative from the district.
Sure, I recognize the negatives, and they may overwhelm the positives. But Kelley’s a player in this race, despite his past election history. Just ask John Kline. He lost two races before being elected to Congress. Norm Coleman lost to Ventura before winning a Senate seat. Regardless what you think of Kelley, he’s a top-tier player for this seat.
If Democrats want to have a chance in Ramstad’s district they have to think about which candidate people that voted for Ramstad would like and not ones that Democrats would like. They have to make it alright for either social or fiscal conservatives to not vote Republican. People that are both fiscal and social conservatives are not within range of the DFL anyway so no bother going for them.
Social conservatives will not vote for somebody that voted for the “Dream Act” or against banning public funding for abortion or probably anybody who voted for domestic partnership privileges. Since it would be hard to find a Democrat with those qualifications I would think going for the fiscal conservatives a better bet. The Democrats need to find somebody that has voted against their party on tax and spending issues often enough to at least feign independent thinking on fiscal matters.
As you can see, I’ve updated the list and gave a little info about each possible candidate. This is a living post and it’ll be updated as we have more info. Feel free to let me know your thoughts opinions or tips at sean@mnpublius.com
Has Steve Kelley ever lost to a republican?
My understanding (from DFL leaders in the Third) is that Steve Simon is *definitely* weighing a run (although like everyone else he’s going to have to make up his mind sooner rather than later). If he does get in, he’d have to be taken very, very seriously as a candidate - the guy beat a six-term GOP incumbent (decisively) and got 70% of the vote in his most recent election, in addition to his strong legislative record, fundraising ability, etc.
Of course if gender is an issue (which it should be! we need more women in Congress) then that works against Simon (as well as Lugar, Humphrey, Kelley, etc.). In that case, Melissa Hortman would seem to be in the strongest position among the women who’ve been mentioned. Of course Hortman, like Simon, would be a great candidate, and would also have to be considered a heavyweight and proven vote-getter if she does get in.
Other than gender, the only potential knock against Simon I’m hearing (so far) is the residency question. Everyone seems to agree that Simon’s roots (personal and political) are in the Third, but there seems to be some confusion about whether his current address is in the Third, or maybe a few blocks over the line (which would put him in the Fifth). If I’m reading my map right (always a question), it looks like Simon’s current address may be just outside the Third, but his legislative district includes parts of both the Third *and* the Fifth.
In other words, Simon would definitely have to move a couple of precincts over if he wants to make the race. On the other hand, he already has some constituents in the Third, and - let’s face it - this is Congress we’re talking about, so maybe it’s not much of a hardship for Simon to get a new address in a different part of his own legislative district(!).
Anyway for what it’s worth, the Great Mentioners in the Third are definitely mentioning Simon (along with Hortman and Humphrey and the rest) as a serious potential candidate, and it sounds like Simon is definitely looking at it.
I am so tired of Steve “the staduim” Kelley.
If Steve Kelley would have to move into the 3rd in order to run, I think it would fit into the “he just wants to run for an office” theme which is his biggest weakness. He would be hammered for it all the way until November. I think Steve should sit this one out.
Please, dear God, not Buck again! Whether inadvertently or on purpose, you crystalized the entirety of his credentials: he shares a name with an icon (HHH)and also with a pretty wonderful former AG (Skip). Oh, and he threw a bunch of parties in the 90s that a lot of politicians came to.
Lets find someone with some substance, please.
Stop talking about Buck Humphrey. He is not a credible candidate. Don’t argue with me. Just shut up. We’re not even going to talk about it.
You can be as patronizing and dismissive all you want, but he has access to money, to good people who have experience on high level campaigns and lots of cache with his name. He’s a credible candidate. Sean
“You can be as patronizing and dismissive all you want, but he has access to money, to good people who have experience on high level campaigns and lots of cache with his name. He’s a credible candidate.”
And that kind of thinking is exactly why the DFL consistently loses races they should win. Even talking about Buck Humphrey as a candidate hurts the credibility of the DFL. He’s a buffoon. What has he done lately other than getting arrested for drunk driving?
Agreed. The DFL has tried the famous son thing. It doesn’t work. Let’s try real, qualified candidates now.
Buck Humphrey hasn’t gotten arrested for drunk driving recently. (or ever, as far as I know)
And it’s exactly stuff like that, that makes commentors on blogs look like buffoons.
He’s not his grandfather. No one is his grandfather. He has a benefit that few people do though, sharing a last name with him. Is that a good reason for him to be a candidate? No. Does it make him a good candidate? No. Will his words and actions define his candidacy? Hopefully.
But, being as patronizing and dismissive as you want to be, he’s developed the relationships that will allow him to be competitive and run a solid campaign. I don’t think he’s getting the MNPublius endorsement, but you talking shit about him on the internet isn’t really going matter in the long run. Sean
I was just informed that he was arrested for drunk driving before his run 6 or 7 years ago. It doesn’t change the fact that Dan mistook Humphrey for Mondale. Sean
Buck Humphrey was arrested twice for drunk driving. http://www.hometownsource.com/capitol/2002/october/15DUI.html
The fact that Buck is HHH’s grandson is a huge negative, not a benefit. The DFL needs to be about the future, not the past. Skip showed there wasn’t much juice left over from the Humphrey name, and he was pretty accomplished in his own right.
Any relationships Buck has are completely irrelevant - he will get absolutely destroyed in this district. And candidates that have no chance need to be dismissed and patronized - this isn’t a charity, this is about winning elections.
Oh, and I don’t think Luger’s HGA loss should be taken to mean he’s a loser. He ran an incredible campaign, getting the endorsement over a mega-insider. The situation was impossible, given Freeman’s name recognition and the top-heavy ballot. Everything he did, despite the odds, make him someone to watch.
Sean,
My link says that Buck was arrested for driving drunk in 1993 and 1994, but you say he was arrested for DUI 6 or 7 years ago. How many DUIs does this guy have?
And no, I actually wasn’t mixing up Ted Mondale (who got a DUI in 2007), but I may have well have been because he and Buck Humprhey are basically the same guy. Anyway, drunk driving isn’t really the point. The point is that the DFL needs to break itself of the habit of supporting the children and grandchildren of great DFLers from the 1960s and 1970s.
And that is a point, I’m sure, we can all agree upon. Let us hold hands and sing Kumbaya!
The person who told me said that it came out just before the election in 2002, they didn’t specify a date, and my comment wasn’t clear enough.
I don’t think it’s a bad thing that he’s related to Hubert Humphrey, I agree that we shouldn’t coronate someone simply because of their DNA, but it shouldn’t preclude them from running or being a credible, viable candidate.
Is it kind of joke that the DFL had a ‘My Three Sons’ primary? Yeah. I think it’s fair to say though that two of those candidates were or are really good public servants and politicians in their own right (Skip and Freeman).
I don’t think that Buck is going to win the endorsement, primary, or election. But he has experience in higher level campaigning, something that only Bill Luther, Andy Luger and Steve Kelley can say, and thats invaluable experience, and again he has connections to staff and volunteers as well as money. All of which make him a factor in this race.
Again I don’t think Buck is going to get the MNPublius endorsement, and if I had to throw out SWAG (silly wild ass guesses) I would say that either Melissa Hortman or Andy Luger will win the DFL endorsement in the district, the race will go to a primary probably, and that Melissa Hortman or Andy Luger will win the primary and they will be in a very tough fight for the seat with the Republicans, unless the Republicans do something silly like nominate Brian Sullivan. In that situation the DFL candidate will take long leisurely naps in the days leading up to the election and stomp the Republicans. Sean
FYI. Terri Bonoff is a State Senator not a State Rep.
“But he has experience in higher level campaigning, something that only Bill Luther, Andy Luger and Steve Kelley can say, and thats invaluable experience, and again he has connections to staff and volunteers as well as money. All of which make him a factor in this race.”
Right there is everything that is wrong with the DFL in a nutshell. What Luther, Luger, Kelley (and Buck) have is experience in LOSING. Hortmann, Bonhoff, Simon et al. are the rising stars of the DFL - good (and young) Democrats getting elected in swing suburban districts. We need to look there for our candidates and need to stop putting up the same old shit.
Can anyone find a copy of the Brian Sullivan ad from 2002, with his “Minnesota Priorities” magnet on his fridge. That was a classic.
I adore Steve Simon, and I think Melissa Hortman is a very good campaigner (as well as a good person to have emilys list as her BFF) but I also think Kelly Doran (articulate, savy, business man with a good labor record) would be able to campaign in Eden Prairie the best.
I find the conversation interesting on here about the 3rd. It’s terrific that we have so many viable candidates for a Congressional district once, not long ago, written off by Dems as unwinnable.
I find it disconcerting however to see the negativism beginning when talkign about some prospective candidates - ripping on Kelley, Luger, Humphrey - casting about terms like ‘losers’ - c’mon people. Did Buck Humphrey lose? Yes, by 66,000 votes out of 2 million cast in the post-Wellstone environment. Did Kelley lose? yes, Did Luger lose, yes. So what? For those of you most vocal in calling these folks losers, let me ask: when you ran, did you win?
The party and the potential candidates need to size-up the district and make decisions based on a lot of unknowns in terms of likelihood of success. What happened in the past may or may not be telling for what might happen this year.
All I know is that this seat is winnable and it would be a huge victory as we head into 2010’s re-districting … Minnesota will be losing on Congressional District (almost certainly) and wouldn’t it be nice to pick up the 3rd?
And yes, I’m identifying myself as the guy who lost to Michele Bachmann the first time out in 2000. Let’s save our arrows for the general election and not use them on our fellow Democrats (assuming of course that those criticizing potential candidates are Dems - I shouldn’t assume).
Yes, lets just pretend all the DFL candidates are ok, and then after we get hammered in the general election, we can just say “aw shucks, we’ll get then next time.”
Bonhoff is not so young.
Yes Ted you lost to Bachmann but, people weren’t aware of how batshit crazy she is. Now they know and she didn’t carry Stillwater.
Ted you left out that you were Bill Luther’s staffer for years and a good friend of Buck. So Dan is kicking you on both cheeks.
Losing is not the issue, its how you perceive it. Some can learn from it and move on better for it (like you did). Others, tend to blame the voters, their staff, or the weather, or a bad year for the DFL, and feel self-righteous enough to throw themselves on us again and again.
I’m not going to kick Buck around because it must a be a bitch to have to deal with the name thing and establish credibility in your own right. Being in the same industry as your namesakes doesn’t help with that.
However, look at the list of potential DFL Congressional Candidates. Look at the younger ones (under 40-45) and look at their accomplishments. Does he measure up? How much of it is relevant to being a public servant at the highest level?
Buck will raise money and have knowledgeable support if he chooses to do this. He may also be in the last race where his name can help him. There are still enough seniors who know those initials all too well.
I was a Luther and Sikorski staffer and yes, friends of Buck and Skip. And many others on the short-to-long list being discussed. Oftentimes a person learns much more from a loss than a win (of course I can say that having lost myself) but overall, the best candidate with greatest chance of success in a given election cycle should be the nominee.
Anyone who knows me knows I don’t subscribe to the ‘Yes, lets just pretend all the DFL candidates are ok, and then after we get hammered in the general election, we can just say “aw shucks, we’ll get then next time.”’ descriptor by Dan.
My point is we have a once in a generation opportunity to wrest control of a district not represented by a Democrat in 45 years and I, like I’m sure every Democrat on here, wants this win so focusing on the merits of various prospective candidates is a far better exercise than trying to tear anyone down.
And your observation about Bachmann is very on-point … and you are correct, she didn’t carry her ‘hometown’ against me - I beat here there by about 500 votes I think (for what it’s worth).
OK, let me get this straight Dan, losers shouldn’t ever get another chance? I have to be misunderstanding you somehow. Bill Clinton, John Kline, Paul Hodes, Brian Schweitzer, Peter Welch, Mark Warner, Will Morgan, Nancy Boyda, Ben Nelson, Baron Hill, Bobby Jindal. That’s just off the top of my head…
I’m an unabashed Luger supporter. He’s got some serious law and order credentials, he’s a solid campaigner, he’s slightly more moderate than Hortman, and he’s starting out with about as much name ID as a state rep would. That said, I could support Ruud or Hortman in a heartbeat if that’s how it shakes out. Really the only name I have to shoot down is Humphrey. The Humphrey dynasty is long over, the name means nothing. And since the name is about all he has going for him…yeah. Sorry Buck.
I’m curious to see what labor does here. Everyone mentioned so far has good relations with the labor community.
This thread highlights how often politics is thought of using back-asswards methods. Instead of looking at who has won what and which DFLer is most popular with the groupies maybe the thoughts should be with who would best represent a majority of the people in the 3rd. Sure it might not be one of the DFL people who deserve a promotion for their years of loyal service to the party but it would be a nice thing for representative democracy. If your in to that kind of thing.
Tanuki, you are misunderstanding me. I am not saying that if you lose an election you should not get another chance. I think there is a difference, though, between candidates who run multiple times in a tough race before getting elected (as is the case with most of the examples you cite) and running recycled candidates in races where there are a number of Democrats who could run. You have to look at candidates on a case by case basis. The point that I was trying to make that the campaign experience held by those candidates is much less important than being a good candidate to begin with.
We obviously agree on Humphrey. I think everyone except his friends agree that’s just a non-starter. I think Luther is tainted by the fake third-party run in his race against Kline. I like Kelley and wish I had supported him instead of Hatch last year, but I think that if the guy had the juice, he actually would have won one of the numerous races he has run for.
The Luger-Freeman race was odd, and I wouldn’t hold that against Luger as a sign of electoral weakness. That being said, I don’t see Luger as being ready for prime time. Maybe if he drops his law professor look and shaves that creepy beard off. That may sound shallow, but that’s politics. The Hortmans and Bonhoffs are going to be much more appealing to the suburban soccer moms than the Minneapolis criminal defense lawyer.
Don’t overlook Sen. Teri Bonhoff. Strong business background and has proven she can win against a strong candidate.
good chat everyone. yes - you can lose a race and learn from it and be a better candidate, and as the delegates in the 3rd look at the race they better think hard about why someone running for this lost the race they lost. but if the reasons are damning then that’s the story.
i also think it’s fair to bring up negatives as well as positives. in some sense the failure of any democrat to “go negative” led us to having skip humphrey and roger moe as our governor candidates in 1998. fine men but a TERRIBLE CANDIDATES. in some sense it was our own arrogance thunking we could their resumes and names even though they couldn’t answer a questions knowledgably (Skip) or powerfully (Skip, Roger).
we need someone quick-witted, knowledgable, attractive, with appropriate issue postiions for the district. this is a much high profile race than secretary of state or state auditor or even attorney general. millions will be spent on both sides, the national press will be covering this closely, and the pressure will be immense. my number one prerequisite will be if they can explain quickly and sharply why they are running, how their accomplishments (and they better have some) prepare them for this, and be able to respond to difficult and unexpected questions, personal and political, powerfully.
look at tim walz, colleen rowley, and patty wetterling to see good and bad examples from last year. hint: we are looking for tim walz (male or female).
What really ticks me off is it seems the good ole boys are already in action. This morning on MPR mid-morning with Kerri Miller the Buck Humphrey was the name put forward by the political wonk. That is huge - to be the one name noted by the expert - how the @#$%#@ do these power brokers sleep? Rhetorical question…it’s not about democracy.
I think the district is definitely winnable. The DCCC and RCCC will both see this as a top-10 race, according to the Cook Report already. That said, the wrong Dem or Repub would get trounced. I think there are a bunch of dems who could get it done and wouldn’t write off any just yet. With Luger in particular, I don’t think one loss makes a loser. In politics I think it’s two and out. The dem who survives the primary will be the one who fits right and knows how to work their tail off. I see Hortman, Simon, and Luger in that category. Don’t know enough about Bonhoff to say on her. Ruud is beloved by many in her ‘hood so maybe her too. As for $$ raising, I’d give the nod to Luger. He raised over $500K in $500 or less contributions. His list is fresh and ready to go. Simon has good $$ access too and raised pretty well on a legislative race. Hortman and the others not so much. Doran, obviously has the $$, but can he work hard enough?
St. Paul Sage is exactly right. While it is nice to focus on the virtues of particular candidates, we need to look at the negatives as well. Maybe if someone had pointed out that “the emperor has no clothes” we wouldn’t have elected Ventura or Pawlenty.
In spite of Buck’s resume’, his name, like it or not, will get him a significant opportunity from the beginning.
Andy Luger ran a great campaign. Mike Freeman did not. Luger won over the groups and energy but the Freeman name was just too much for him to overcome. Humphrey is a far better known name.
That’s a horrible commentary on our electorate but, I believe its accurate. The Humphrey name will be strong enough to at least to stop an endorsement and thus leading the pack to a primary. The problem is that the individual is never really tested and when they get to the big show, are apt to fall on their face. He can overcome this, if he realize its happening. Remember that Skip use to represent part of the area for years in the Senate. Buck grew up out this way and his parents still live in the area.
Buck has the name ID and can raise the money. His friends are a who’s who of campaign staffers over the last decade. Too play him out because we can’t stand that his name is his biggest asset, is exactly how he can win.
Personally, I think Kelly Doran is the strongest candidate. He has his own money, business success, labor support, and campaign trail experience. He could overcome the name game if he commits to spending the money wisely.
Demure One,
As you can see the power brokers in training do not care at all about actual democracy. They care about pushing the right pieces into the right places to gain a seat and hopefully advance the careers of a few party loyalists. The Republicans work the same way and are going through the same conversations right now. It is fine to play the game as long as the big picture, representing the people of the 3rd, is not forgotten. Unfortunately Democrats have been notoriously bad at figuring that out before picking a candidate. In part because they look at candidates from only the perspective of their loyal base and not the general public. With that attitude they will rightfully continue to loose elections they could otherwise win. Their only saving grace is the Republicans are no better.
And even when they win they loose because they put people in office who aren’t strong enough or dedicated enough to support fundamental concepts in the party platform - they back show horses and then wonder why their elected officials don’t vote the way they thought they would. Auughh!! Can you imagine the party GOPers will have if it’s Humphrey for US House and Franken for US Senate - “The Buck and Al Show” ..Buck and Al…Buck n’Al *#@$uck in Hell.. sorry…not feeling particularly “demure” right now…
I’d think Terri Bonoff would be the stronger candidate comparing Hortman and Bonoff. Bonoff has a better fiscally moderate voting record. Bonoff got Chamber of Commerce endorsement in the last race. That’s a big thing for a democrat.
Dan, I think we’re in agreement on most of these folks. I do have to offer up an anecdote about Luger and his “creepy beard” though. He spoke at the AFSCME state convention last year, and when I snuck out for a smoke afterwards, got to listen in on a handful of female attendees gushing (Not a word I use real often, but apt.) about him.
A large part of me can’t believe I just typed that out. As many people have said on this thread, that’s politics. JFK won because he wore make-up.
Attn: Sean
Is MN Publius ever going to interview this James Broom Wellstone candidate??
It seems like a fascinating story.
I don’t think he would do what he’s doing without the blessing of the Wellstone family? So why no interview from MN Publius in regards to Wellstone?
Terri Bonoff has a couple of advantages:
She is undefeated in a traditionally Republican district (she’s 2-0).
And, she won’t have to give up her seat to run (she’s in the middle of her term).
And Terri represents the same senate district that Ramstad represented in the State Senate.
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Republican — and of course I hope the 3rd stays “red.”
That said, I listened to what Ron Carey said yesterday about the 3rd district race and the money, time and sweat that it will take to win.
I sincerely hope that both parties nominate qualified and serious candidates to compete in this race.
Note to the readers: When I say serious — I mean candidates that can raise a bit of cash, that respect the endorsement process, have a legitimate stance on 3rd District issues and actually have a chance of winning.
[This is a direct juxtaposition to this “Broom-Wellstone” idiocy. You folks here at MN Publius are smart enough to understand how big of a dope this Broom character is.]
My hometown rep is Melissa Hortmann. She is smart, media savvy, will have plenty of fundraising advantages — -and presents a legitimate candidate for the suburban mother of district 3 to believe in.
Recently, Hortmann has allowed her own ideology to blind her. By publicly writing and vocally rambling about Global Warming of all things….she alienates voters that only care about how much disposable income they have in their wallets.
Simply stated — -taking a hard stand on Global Warming will NOT get anyone any additional votes in district 3. Its a stupid road for Hortmann to go down…she’s smarter than that.
3rd district voters (the suburban vote) want someone to represent them in DC who looks out for their best interests, which more often than not, deal with taxes, the economy and jobs.
Hortmann would be well served to start representing the constituents of 47B and/or MN-3….and stop representing herself.
MN-3 voters obviously don’t want idealogues representing them. How else do we explain Jim Ramstad winning 9 terms??
The idea of Bonoff is certainly interesting. There is another post that mentions how she wouldn’t have to let go of her seat in the legislature in an effort to run. Definately a plus…if you don’t think so — -ask Larry Pogemeiller.
Bonoff’s success in a relatively red area of MN indicates that she has a winning formula, and a message that resonates with an undecided voter. She’s no lightweight.
As a conservative, but also an educated voter — -I have to admit that both Bonoff and Hortmann pose serious challenges to the GOP effort to keep MN-3 red.
Bottom Line…hopefully BOTH parties nominate candidates that want to make District 3 a better place
Hortmann voted for the taxpayer subsidized stadium.
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