Wow.
Survey USA just released a poll that has Norm Coleman in a statistical tie with Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in head to head matchups.
Coleman - 46%
Franken - 45%
Coleman - 44%
Ciresi - 44%
This poll comports with the overall polling trend in this race, which has shown Franken and Ciresi steadily gaining on Coleman over the last several months. Early in the year, Republicans made a lot of noise about Coleman’s large leads over the two DFL candidates, but we pointed out that Coleman’s support was weak for an incumbent and we predicted that the gap would narrow. During the summer, we saw Franken and Ciresi’s numbers surge to within single digits of Coleman’s. Now, Franken and Ciresi are tied with Coleman. Truely stunning.
Clearly all the momentum is with the DFLers at this point.
Matt adds: Wow. Just wow.
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WOW! That’s amazing, considering the incessant drumbeat to swiftboat Al Franken.
Maybe the people of Minnesota aren’t responding to personal attacks anymore. Maybe the 2008 election will be different.
What a nightmare that would be for the righties if negative ads and swiftboating pundits don’t work anymore, they’d have to instead run on issues and ideology….
But that won’t happen, I promise you. They will attack until the very end. That’s all that the well trained righties know how to do.
Too bad for the DFL that this election isn’t tomorrow, instead of a year from tomorrow. Alot can happen in a year, (see Bush 1991-92 for more detail).
So, Dan what your saying is Coleman will come out with some kind of Willie Horton nonsense? little mikey will keep telling lies and distortions, he’s certainly not above adopting some rovian tactics. In fact mikey might have to reach up to scratch the snake’s belly that is republican campaigning.
the tide is as low right now as it ever has been for the repubs… Franken and Ciresi are beneficaries of that, as was Klobuchar (although I think she would have won regardless, just not by a double digit margin).
The tide almost never stays low for a full year. A year is ALOT of time in the campaign world.
Nitro,
I love how you rant and rave about how the right supposedly smears the left when you have been, and continue to be, the biggest smear merchant on here. It’s no wonder you would support Franken, one of the country’s biggest smear merchants. I will say that the next election will be about the issues and I just hope you people nominate Franken or Cerisi.
Did the polling include Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer? They would have an impossible task trying to swift boat Jack.
Thanks! I’ve been reading but not taking the time to post.
A year is a long time, but what could Coleman possibly do? He’ll always be a slimeball stooge, the embodiment of the scumbag politician.
I thought I heard something.
Ah..it was nothing worth commenting on.
Three things strike me about this poll.
First, they didn’t ask about Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. I certainly would not have expected his numbers to be as high as either Franken or Ciresi. At this point, he just isn’t as well known. But I think it is a very big mistake to consider him a non-factor. It would have been interesting to see some numbers at this point as a sort of baseline, much as people have commented about Franken’s rising numbers over the past few months.
Second, the same poll shows subterranean numbers for Congress, for Pelosi and for Reed. In other words, as much as most people really hate Bush’s policies and think he is driving the country over a cliff, they hate the impotent Congress even more at this point.
Third, Franken’s negatives are still quite high.
Which leads me to wonder if folks aren’t almost ready for the sort of more basic change that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer would bring.
(Jack’s line last week was fantastic. He said that the Republicans are driving us toward the cliff at 150 miles per hour. Most Democrats want to slow that down to 100 mph. Maybe what we really need is a different direction. Makes sense to me.)
Sadly, DantheMan is right: a year is a long bloody time in politics. A year before the election, no one thought that Jim Webb would take out George “Maccaca” Allen in VA, so this is hardly a guarantee.
However, it is significant. It is further proof that Coleman is very very vulnerable.
This race is also a little unusual because it’s functionally started so much earlier than Senate races in MN ever have before. It’s harder to know at what point the electorate’s judgments on candidates & issues will harden, restricting movement in the polls.
Ciresi has to be encouraged by this; he still has high “unknowns” and despite that is in a statistical tie. He gets to make the case for growth in his numbers, and his lead among moderates strengthens his “electability” argument.
Franken also has to be pleased with the results; he’s been getting hammered by the right as if he’s already the nominee and his numbers still hold up. The high negatives are clearly dominated by republican voters and he’s drawing well among moderates as well. think about it: Franken gets hit by the GOP all the time, and gets hit by Ciresi as well, but is still doing well. he’s fighting a two-front war and surviving well. (Ciresi doesn’t get hit by Franken nearly as much at this point)
Franken is getting hammered and swiftboated on MDE by the 10 people who read that blog. The real hammering and swiftboating will come after Franken is the nominee and the Republicans run a million TV ads of Franken demonstrating what a jerk he truly is.
Franken is going to be a good Senator for the state, much better then the poser we’ve got now. The repugs are running into a perfect storm of numbers and policy. The GOP agenda is down almost 50 points and they have to try and hold 23 Senate seats. I’ve seen predictions of the Democratic party picking up a nearly veto proof Senate. Franken will be a big part of that, taking Wellstone’s seat back from the usurper.
We should pick up this seat, but Franken is going to deliver it to Norm Coleman.
“I’ve seen predictions of the Democratic party picking up a nearly veto proof Senate.”
Note to self:
Call the charities I’m involved with and tell them that the money they get from me will now have to be rerouted to the tens of thousands of bureau offices in Washington DC, and that it will be at least two years before I can resume my giving.
Dan,
RU a false flag?
I’ll be honest. The poll doesn’t bode well for our side
Though, the election is far from over and the race should be considered a toss up! This is an unfortunate position for Norm, considering that he should be leading. I have said it before and I’ll say it again…..the two close races in MN will be the Senate seat and the 3rd Congressional seat!
This all important Senate seat, the one I like to call Rudy Boschwitz’ seat (I will forever know it as that), will not be decided on the two candidates but on the political wind.
Whichever party wins the Presidency wins this seat.
It’s not like Coleman is Tim Pawlenty, who can stand strong in the face of a hurricane that is a political wind shift.
I agree with you Dantheman. Franken wont win this on his own merits (he has none), he will win it because no one likes Republicans these days and while I despise Coleman and most of his positions, in a normal year, I fully recognize that he should be able to hold this seat. He is just conservative enough to be palatable to Minnesota. I find his positions somewhat reasonable but him to be such a phony, such a politician.
Richard..Willie Horton was not nonsensne…it was a legitimate issue to raise about letting killers go free..to kill again..and he did..not only did he kill, he stuffed the scrotum of his victim in his victim’s mouth while he tortured and killed his victims wife…nice guy that Willy Horton is…Dukakae was totally to blame…Dan the tide is not as low as you think..the Rs almost won a seat in Massechusets…. The Rs won the governship in La by a huge margin…. The Dems just cannot govern….also dan, i will submit that more people read MDE then read this blog