1) Neuville is a global warming denier. Just sayin…
2) LaHammer is also reporting that former St. Rep. Ray Cox (R) will run for Neuville’s seat in the State Senate. I think Cox has to be considered the favorite. Neuville’s Senate district is comprised of Steve Sviggum’s old Laura Brod’s House district (which is solidly Republican) and David Bly’s House district (which is very competitive). Put them together and you’ve got a district with a GOP lean. Moreover, Cox represented the more DFL friendly half in the House for four years (surviving the thrasing the GOP took in 2004, but not the drubbing they took in 2006) so he should run ahead of the party index there. Provided Cox is able secure the party endorsement (which seems likely, but he is a moderate), he should do well.
3) If Cox won, it would preclude a rematch with freshman Rep. David Bly, which would substantialy increase Bly’s reelection prospects. Republicans will still target his seat, but Cox was definetly the strongest possible challenger.
UPDATE - I just realized as that the headline I put on this post could be interpreted to mean that Neuville “bought” his judgeship. That’s not what I meant, and I apologize if anyone took it that way. I just meant that Neuville would have to buy a robe now that he is a judge. Sorry for any confusion.
You are mistaken. The 2 sides are Bly and Brod. Sviggum’s old seat is in a different Senate District.
I agree with your analysis. Also, I assume this is timed to create a Holiday Vacation Special Election (Perhaps Thursday the 27th?) preventing students in Northfield a chance from voting.
Even if the DFL candidate does not pull out a victory (Jessica Peterson pulled 48% in 06) this news may be a mixed blessing. For one, as you note, Bly would not have to face Cox again. Second, Cox is more moderate than Neuville so that in itself is a win.
At this point, does the DFL really need another seat in the Senate? Keeping the huge majority in the House needs to me priority number one for two reasons: 1) Veto override potential and 2) Keeping the margin large enough to move the focus to the Gubentorial race in 2010.
If Laura Brod does not plan on going after this seat what does that mean for her future plans? Governor? Secretary of State? Her seat, BTW, is pretty much unwinnable for the DFL.
Actually kids, Neuville’s senate seat is comprised of the house districts of Representative Brod and Representative Bly.
Sorry, didn’t see that “yep” already corrected you on this.
Oops. Thanks for the correction.
Over the last 10 years, Neuville has had a few close elections, so this will be a very competitive special election.
This won’t be competitive at all. Cox will win easily. I agree with the previous comments that the DFL would be wise to save their money for protecting other seats in ‘08.
The DFL might get lucky and win the Northfield side of the district, but Cox will win the New Prague side 65-35.
I say let Ritchie pick when this election will be. It doesn’t matter. Cox will win it regardless of the schedule.
Michael B. Brodkorb,
I can’t believe you actually posted something that isn’t an attempt to smear people. Are you feeling ok? This isn’t going to look good on your performance review. You’re paid to smear people, not to chit-chat.
This is how a conservative becomes a liberal. Make him a clown in a gown.
Donald,
Good analysis… When I heard the announcement, I figured that Rep. Brod would jump at the chance to move to the Senate. They could use her spunk. Your analysis regarding Brod’s plans makes sense. Why run for the Senate seat if she is potentially looking at something statewide in 2010. Gov, Sec. of State, Auditor…. lots of options.
Doesn’t matter what Ritchie says, the Governor picks the election date and who is going to listen to Ritchie right now anyway!
Yeah - Jessica Peterson pulled 48% in 2006…AND you should note she got incredibly little help from the state DFL.. Had the DFL put in the kind of effort and resources as they did in the SD 41 race - heck just think what she could have accomplished. It’s so maddening she had public service experience, she was a quality candidate - she was up against a GOPer who was even more conservative than Geoff Michel and yet the big boys at the top totally failed her…gee is there a lesson here?
They failed Carol Bomben in Eden Prairie also - while supporting the totally flawed Andrew Borene.
Cox is a moderate, so he should be able to get some DFL votes.
The Senate Caucus and the state party didn’t actually fail. They took a 44-23 majority.
A lot of candidates get upset that they aren’t targets but there is limited time and resources. That’s the way the system works. Hopefully we’ll get some of those close seats on the House side next fall because it will be tough to defend every incumbent in some of the suburban swing seats.
OK let’s everybody freak out when the Governor schedules the special when the kiddies are on break from their Northfield liberal ivory towers. Just let it all out.
The notion of the DFL saving its money for another race is ridiculous. There is no limit to money for DFL races.
Yeah, Drew, the DFL has unlimited resources. It’s all that dirty union money.
Oops didnt see Donald’s post freaking out about a potential date where the Northfield 18-22 year olds (that have so much in common with that district) can vote DFL. I bet the Governor waits till they are back just to keep chaps like you from whimpering.
As for Brod, going to the senate would be like going from pergatory to hell. Ritchie had better hope she is running for Governor.
Where is Mary K when the rethugs need her. Isn’t voter suppression her expertise?
and vote fraud the expertise of Ritchie, whos vote did Kiffmeyer supress?
Donald,
Special is on the 3rd. The kids will be back in the ivory tower ready to be drug off to vote DFL. You can help Move On Take Action and Act Up or whowever they are.