A little (and by a little I mean a lot) more analysis on the bombshell Survey USA poll released earlier today is available after the jump. In case you missed it, the poll showed that Norm Coleman was statistically tied with Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in head to head matchups.
* Not too long ago, Michael Brodkorb put up a huge banner headline that read something like this: “FRANKEN HAS HIGHEST NEGATIVES OF ANY SENATE CANDIDATE IN LATEST POLL”. That was a ridiculous headline at the time, because Franken’s unfavorable rating was a scant 1% higher than Norm Coleman’s. This time around, its just plain inaccurate: Norm Coleman and Al Franken have equally high unfavorables at 37% each. Brodkorb is on record numerous times saying (and I’m paraphrasing here) “no one with negatives as high as Al Franken can be elected to the Senate.” Does that rule out Norm too?
* Norm’s favorable ratings have to be especially troubling to his campaign. A 36% favorable rating for an incumbent Senator? Ouch. Republicans will point to Franken’s low favorables and say that Norm’s are rosy by comparison. It’s true that Al has work to do in this area, but the poll shows that it should be an easier task for him than it will be for Norm. A full 40% of Minnesotans have either never heard of Al or don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Michael can pull out quotes about Al being a “known commodity” but that doesn’t rebut the numbers in the Survey USA poll (and, for that matter, every other poll released to date) which show that Franken is still relatively unknown across Minnesota compared to Norm Coleman.
* With each poll, Brodkorb and his Republican friends change the metric they want to emphasize. First, it was Al’s low support among DFLers. In this poll, Al gets 84% of DFLers, which is statistically the same as Norm’s support among Republicans at 89%. Next, GOPers emphasized the 20+ point gap between Franken and Coleman. Now the race is tied. Then, when the gap narrowed some, the focus was on Al’s “high negatives”. But Al’s negatives are the same as Coleman’s. There goes that talking point. So now Michael focuses on Al’s favorable ratings. How long before he changes his spin again? (Hint: when the next poll comes out) We’ve been saying the same thing all along: Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are both quality candidates and both will be competitive with Norm Coleman next fall. Norm, an incumbent Senator, is extremely vulnerable with approval ratings and favorability ratings consistently below 50%.
* “Liberal” Al Franken and “liberal” Mike Ciresi have no trouble with moderates. Mike leads Norm by 8 and Al leads Norm by 4 in this crucial sub-group.
* Trend, trend, trend. Al and Mike have closed a big gap. They have the momentum. No question about it.
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Zach:
There are so many errors in your post, I don’t know where to begin.
LOLOLS
Wow Michael shows us why he gets the big bucks.
Great job!
Question - why isn’t Mike on your chart - given that he does better than Franken against Coleman in every category?
Ciresi could win but not likely
Franken will never win. Never.
Remember all the gop huffing and puffing about the Star Trib poll showin Klobuchar slamming Kennedy?
I think we are seeing that replay again. Norm loosing his lead and gop folks just plug there ears, shut their eyes and say “LA LA LA I CANT’ HEAR YOU” over and over.
Survey USA was one of the most on the money polling from last cycle, and personally I put alot of stock into this poll showing a tie match up with Franken and Ciresi. I wish the would of polled JNP.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, doesn’t really matter who the Democratic party nominates, Minnesotans know Coleman doesn’t belong in that chair. Coleman is there because of a plane crash. That one won’t work again.
In all honesty, I only made the chart for Franken because I’m lazy.
Richard,
Just knock it off already. Please.
It shouldn’t matter who the Democrats nominate, because this seat is theirs for the taking. But if they nominate a shameless dick like Al Franken, it will matter.
I talked to JNP tonight and he was telling me that a few people are starting to call this a two-man race, him and Franken. Ciresi has really been quite lackluster lately, his fundraising for the last quarter was horrible. He will be able at my school at the end of the month and I’m quite sad I wont be able to see him speak. I am fully behind JNP but Id love to get to see what Ciresi is about.
Hopefully they poll JNP next time and hopefully by that time, he’ll have some name recognition.
“we should use disasters to try stuff” Al Franken … is this really your guy???..what a clown
Say what you like about Brodkerb, but when he’s been paid, he’s loyal. He maintained that Kennedy would pull it off, right up until the end, and he’ll do the same for Coleman. We should form a poll - which disclosure period will be forced to hear the denials about the five Gs he’ll get a month from Coleman won’t be affecting his ‘coverage’.
Zack:
The new Rasmussen Poll sure makes Zack’s “analysis” look downright silly. After reading the new poll results, I bet Zack wishes he wouldn’t have published this post.
all of a sudden this is old news Rassmussen: Coleman 49 Franken 42..spin that you liars
john:
Wait until Zack reads that Franken’s unfavorable rating is higher than in the previous poll. He may pull this entire post down.
Yeah, we’ll definitely be finding how much Coleman is paying for Mikey’s ‘strictly his own’ views pretty soon I’m thinking.
Coleman’s endorsement of Guiliani will become a millstone around his neck. If Norm tries to back away from Rudy when Rudy’s numbers tank, he will look like the weathervane he is. Franken, Ciresi, Pallmeyer, whomever, will ride into the Senate on the coattails of Clinton, Edwards, Obama. The more Guiliani advocates more war, more debt, more fascism, the lower Coleman’s numbers will go down. Coleman tied his political fortunes to a party that is becoming increasingly irrelevant. little mikey can’t argue why someone should vote for Coleman, he can only smear. It’s sad he’s such a hater.
LOLOLS righties.
The comments at Publius are so entertaining. The comments at Publius will continue to be one of the best places to watch the right wing reaction to their own unraveling and demise.
“Wait until Zack reads that Franken’s unfavorable rating is higher than in the previous poll. He may pull this entire post down.”
*cach-ING* (the sound of the Brodkorb thing making some more money).
I 100% doubt Zack will pull this post down.
OMG that cracks me up. Its an episode of “Republicans who rely on hatred to win rather than issues”. LOLOLS… “Boy, I sure hope more people hate those moonbats, the more hate the better. What can I say or do to make them hate more? Hatred ALWAYS works in our favor”
….meanwhile the middle class has empty wallets and are wondering if anyone on the right even cares.
The comments here are a great resource. Thanks.
We are just under a year from sending someone to Wash DC for 6 more years to allegedly represent the State of MN and its overtaxed and underserved citizens.
The only thing I read in the mainstream media is how can we slice and dice our demographics to show that everyone is a victim? How can we sensationalize the trivial, oddball left or rightwing individual? How can we portray the perverse as normal and normal as perverse? This is what I see the pundits from our illustrious and disingenuous press shoving down our throats.
I do not know what planet these unelected judges of our society came from, but when I see them hyping some carpet bagging schlock that blasted off from MN eons ago as a serious candidate for this auspicious position of responsibility, I come away scratching and shaking my head in disbelief. I know that Al Franken, late of the failed Air America program, does not represent me, my family, my relatives, my neighbors or my community to any significant statistical or analogical degree.
Please MN, wake up. You have 9 months to disavow this loony tune and his supporters and put forth a viable candidate. Sending another ambulance chaser to Washington does not, in my humble opinion, equate to a sensible alternative either. Norm, get back to your roots or you will be pulled up and thrown away too!
little john -
PLEASE REPORT TO HOMEROOM FOR DETENTION!
Bordkorb, you’re an even bigger fool than I thought if you think the Rasmussen poll invalidated the Survey USA poll.
What, the only polling data that is valid is the stuff that validates the MDE view of the world?
Sorry, it doesn’t work that way.
Rob,
Ciresi is hardly an ambulance chaser.