Northern Virginia, one of the wealthiest regions of the country, has long been a key Democratic stronghold in the commonwealth, but the near-sweep of the region has broad implications. First, it further demonstrates that the shift to Democrat of rich, white suburbia is a national phenomenon and a permanent realignment — the counterpart to the GOP’s Southern realignment. Second, the near-defeat of Republican State Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (he leads by 91 votes with only absentee votes left to be counted) in the outer suburbs of Loudon County suggests that the Democratic trends are sprawling with the suburbs — an ominous sign for the GOP’s future.
Novak’s analysis is particularly relevant to Minnesota this election cycle because the 3rd Congressional District is similar to Northern Virginia in many ways. Like NOVA, the Twin Cities suburbs have started to turn blue in recent years, with DFLers winning legislative races from Bloomington to Minnetonka to Champlin. Its all part of a broader trend of educated professionals moving to the left, a phenominom that was observed as early as 2000. It was slowed by 9-11 and the run-up to the Iraq War (and thus not as visible in 2002) but started again in 2004 (e.g. Melissa Bean’s Congressional victory in the Chicago suburbs) and was in full force in 2006 (e.g. Jim Webb in NOVA, Ed Perlmutter in suburban Denver, Joe Sestak in the Phily suburbs). Will this demographic shift turn CD3 blue in 2008? Just remember that John Kerry won Edina in 2004.
For more on this subject, you can read The Emerging Democratic Majority, by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis
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