4 days to go ’till the Iowa caucuses. Weather is looking good for a big turnout (something that will benefit Obama and Edwards methinks) This is the political story that is going to dominate all political news until the end of the New Hampshire primary. So… good luck avoiding it.
The race — as it has been for many months — is a three-way affair between Clinton, Obama and Edwards.
What’s clear from being on the ground here in Iowa is that Edwards’s surge over the past week is real….
Edwards’s staying power has forced a recalculation on the part of Obama who at one time expected the caucuses to turn into a two-person race between him and Clinton. Instead, Obama now finds himself in an unexpected fight for the anti-Clinton vote with the increasingly feisty Edwards. Hoping to slow Edwards’s momentum, Obama and his campaign have begun questioning whether Edwards is in fact an agent for real change in the political system by focusing on the amount of outside money being spent on behalf of the former North Carolina senator.Obama is also seeking to draw contrasts between the paths that he and Edwards took to get to this place. At the rally last night in Indianola, Obama noted that he eschewed the chance to go to a high-powered law firm in order to become a community organizer — drawing an implicit contrast with the affluence accrued by Edwards as a trial lawyer. (A side note: Obama is starting to use the term “trial lawyer” more often on the stump to describe Edwards, perhaps hoping to capitalize on the negative associations many voters have with that particular profession.)
While Obama and Edwards are clearly fighting over a similar pool of voters, Obama’s strength is consolidated in the more urban eastern part of the state where the state’s liberal base is primarily gathered….
At the same time, the Clintons are trying to portray their Democratic rivals — particularly Obama — as risky choices for voters at a time when steadiness and dependability are crucial. Hillary Clinton today told USA Today that she was “not asking voters to take me on a leap of faith” and last night former president Bill Clinton spent 20 minutes detailing his wife’s record of accomplishments dating to when the two met in law school. “She never picks up a problem that isn’t better when she put it down,” he said.
Anecdotal evidence points to a small gain for Clinton over the weekend, gains potentially attributable to the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benzanir Bhutto and the foreign policy discussion it triggered. But, it’s important not to overstate that movement; senior strategists for each of the three campaigns acknowledge the race is stunningly close and that any of the trio could wind up on top or in third place on Thursday night.
(Seans Note: My dad used to swear by the genius of Ed Rollins. He may have had a point.)
Saying He Pulled Negative Ad, Huckabee Shows It
Mike Huckabee has halted a negative ad that he was about to broadcast on television Monday against his Republican rival, Mitt Romney. But while claiming the moral high ground, he proceeded to show the ad to a roomful of reporters, photographers and television cameras who are repeating his anti-Romney message for free while Mr. Huckabee declares that his hands are clean.
The display unfolded at the Marriott Hotel here to the mirth of the media who watched Mr. Huckabee’s legerdemain even as the media itself became the conduit for his attacks against Romney.
At the same time, he pointed to media cynicism as the reason he felt compelled to show the ad, saying that unless he showed it, reporters would not believe that it really existed. It criticized Mr. Romney’s record as governor of Massachusetts, saying he supported gun control, allowed a co-pay for abortions in his health plan, raised taxes and ordered no executions.
The Marriott is campaign central for the media and many of the campaigns encamped in Iowa, so scheduling a press conference in the hotel was guaranteed to draw a good crowd. More than 60 members of the media showed up, expecting what the Huckabee campaign had billed as the unveiling of his new attack ad against Mr. Romney.
Genius dude. Genius. Michael Brodkorb would be proud.
Iowa final sprint is all about turnout
It’s all about turning out voters now.After a year of stump speeches, TV ads and face-to-face politicking, presidential get-out-the-vote operations are in overdrive in the final hours before Iowa’s caucuses. Campaigns largely are relying on traditional methods, what one operative terms the “knock-and-drag” approach — knock on doors and drag voters to the caucuses.
“Whenever it’s a close race, a strong organization matters. It can make a difference,” said Terry Nelson, a veteran strategist from President Bush’s 2004 re-election race who has deep roots in Iowa politics.
We get lots of flack for being about the horserace, and for better or worse, it’s the organization, it’s the money that wins competitive races at go time.
The race in Iowa is too close to call for me– and I haven’t been down there, so I have no special insight, but I think that Edwards is in a unique position right now to gain some steam, and if I had to put money on it I’d say that Edwards comes in 1st or 2nd– the question is, who gets show? If Barack Obama comes in third it will be a devastating, but surmountable blow to his ambitions, if Hillary Clinton comes in third it will be a much less damaging hit on her hopes– and if Edwards comes in third it’s over for him.
