We get knocked all the time for focusing solely on the horse-race aspects of politics. I think it’s fair to say that ‘the horse race’ does impact electoral politics — and usually for the worse (but hey, I’ve got a thing goin’ and I’m not going to change it) but this article from Time starts to highlight one of the more interesting (in my addled mind) horse race stories of this Presidential election season.
In 2004 I was one of the frozen (m)asses who went to Iowa for Howard Dean and as we arrived in Mason City and started knocking on doors I became aware of a storyline that was just starting to gain traction in the very insular world of Iowa caucus goers. That morning’s papers featured stories about infighting between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean and very quickly the race wasn’t about the insurgent Dean who had great positive press attention in the last few weeks (I remember reading a glowing week old Rolling Stone feature on Dean on the drive down) but instead the race became about the (overhyped) mudslinging between the two front runners. At the doors of the by now reasonably annoyed Iweejuns, months of unrelenting door knocks, phone calls and lit pieces can do that to people, I started to hear the grumblings about this “he sounds so angry sometimes.”
There are a couple reasons why Dean won lost (typo) — he appealed to young folks and first time caucus goers, and although they told the pollsters they were supporting him it seems like many didn’t show up. His national army of volunteers rubbed some Iowans the wrong way. etc. etc. etc. but it’s hard to argue that at least partially, and I think the main reason why Dean lost was the development and the timing of the “Dean v. Gephardt — Blood Sport” meme.
So, how does that relate to this year? Well… not at all. As the Time article I linked to earlier “Will the Campaign Stop for Christmas?” starts to lay out; the timing of this years Iowa caucus messes up the easiest glasses through which to view the election — the press. Falling on January 3rd the Iowa Caucuses come two days after the end of the Christmas-New Years week, a time which is known for very little in the press world. The world doesn’t stop turning we just stop paying attention to it’s rotation while we get together with friends and family to celebrate the holidays.
So, what stories will define the caucuses? Barack Obama’s surge in the polls in Iowa and the positive process pieces that come as a result of that (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) have buoyed his hopes and poll numbers, but just in the last couple of days Hillary Clinton who has taken a shellacking for some unforced errors and less than expected debate performances has started to see a more positive press cycle open up for her largely centered around her endorsement by the Des Moines Register. Will this tiny window of good news for Clinton be the last thing that voters remember through the dionysian haze of the holiday? Will the race fall into some type of stasis for the holidays only to bounce back deafeningly loud for the last 2-3 days before the caucuses?
Ah those freezing days in Iowa were still good times
Silence!
Sean
Were you guys sober for part of it? And Sean, what do you mean Dean won?
Sorry — it was just a typo — I wrote the post in 37 minutes.
And of course I was sober for part of it. On the last Saturday we didn’t make it to the bar till like 6:30. (ND — SILENCE!)
Sean
I remember watching the Dean scream live the night he got third place in Iowa, and that very night the clip of him was already being played over and over and over again on the cable news. He may have lost Iowa, and that was a blow, but that moment doomed his campaign.
Smearing people, character attacks, not ideology, are what used to win back then. I don’t think that’s true anymore.
Are we better off now that we were 7 years ago? I think most people would say no. America is a living, breathing right wing ideological failure. Let’s change that.
Nitro, forgot the medication again today didn’t you?
Well it has been a year already, what have the democRats done again? Then again your party run both Mpls and St. Paul and look at what total failures they have become. History has proven time and time again liberalism fails every time!!
An yes, the DFL still uses personal attacks and smear tactics often. Remeber the Col. Klink photo, the stolen yard sings and such, everyone knows lefty democRats will stop at nothing to get their people in power sop they can force the rest of us to live as they see fit.
LOLOLS!!!!!
Wow nice “rebuttal”. Who sounds more like their “meds” aren’t working right?
Are you better off than you were 7 years ago, and why, “big”.
Pussy.
Nitro, are you feeling ok? You have me concerned a bit. “Pussy”?? Why Nitro, why??
Am I better of than I was 7 years ago? I would have to say yes I am. Not really due to any politician however, pretty much made my own success. I do however vote for politicians who will take less of the money I work hard for.
Have some eggnog Nitro, you seem like you could use it.