I know, I know…this isn’t a national blog and I promise more Minnesota content soon, but I just have to comment on this AP/Pew poll of Iowa that was released this morning. At first glance, this poll is bad news for MN Publius’ favorite candidate Barack Obama.
Hillary - 31%
Obama - 26%
Edwards - 19%
But you can throw the poll out for two big reasons:
1. The poll is over a week old. It was conducted from November 7th through the 25th.
2. Most importantly, the poll was conducted over a three week span! Three weeks! Some of the people polled for the AP/Pew poll answered questions on November 7th. A MONTH AGO! Think over everything that has happened since November 7th. I got a big one for you: the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. Pretending that this poll is an accurate representation of the current race in Iowa is completely irresponsible. Polls, pundits and candidate posturing all indicate that Clinton is not leading in Iowa. The Des Moines Register poll, which was released over the weekend and was conducted from Nov 25 through the 28 (so, entirely after the AP/Pew Poll), showed Obama in the lead:
Obama - 28%
Clinton - 25%
Edwards - 23%
To sum up. The AP/Pew poll accuratly reflects the Iowa Caucuses as they stood in mid-November. This is not timely news now that it is early December.
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I am not sure why you bother with any other candidate than Hillary Rodham Clinton?? Clearly she WILL BE the democRat candidate and anyone who thinks differently does not understand their own party. Hillary has bought and paid for the run and you damn well get used to the idea of voting for her as you are all sheeple and will do as you are told and vote for Hillary!
Anyone want to bet money on someone else getting the nomination? This has been Hillary’s since 2004, all other reporting is just something to do and pretend some other democRat had a chance.
Hmmm… Many here claim the only the democRats have real primaries to pick the candidates. Yet why is it I knew it would be Hillary after last election cycle?
The Clinton machine is on the goosestep or I mean march and Obama and the others are mearly fodder for the cannons. If one of them are lucky she will bless one of them as vice pres. ;)
Big Kahuna,
I think you need to take an analytical look at both the early state polls as well as national polls. While it is true that Clinton has a large lead nationally, the same is true for Giuliani, who does not at all seem to be the frontrunner in the Republican nomination any longer. Iowa is incredibly competitive with any of the “big 3” able to win on the Democratic side of the caucus. While it is true that a win for Clinton in IA will probably cement her victory, if she doesn’t finish first each candidate that finishes in front of her has a huge shot of overtaking her in NH. If any candidate wins both IA and NH, then the race is probably theirs for the taking. However, if the first two states are split then the contest is blown wide open. If Edwards wins IA and Obama wins NH (by finishing second in IA and not giving up too much in NH), then Feb 5 will be a 3-way slugfest for the nomination.
Things aren’t nearly as clear-cut as you make it seem.
Archer Dem - I think the concept of Feb 5 of being a three way slug fest is far fetched.
Assume the scenario you described (Edwards wins Iowa and Obama wins NH). I think the only way that Obama wins NH after losing IA is if he runs a close second and Clinton runs a distant third. Otherwise, HRC’s numbers wouldn’t drop enough and Obama’s wouldn’t stay stable enough to allow for an Obama win.
So in that scenario the question is who came in second in NH? If its Clinton, then Edwards is hurt bad. The storyline is that Edwards couldn’t capitalize on his Iowa win. Is it a mortal wound? Probably, though the calender will help slightly. SC and NV are both better states for Edwards, but if Obama wins either Iowa or NH, I think he wins SC big as black voters would flock to him (polls demonstrate that Obama’s underperforming in the black community is due to the perception he can’t win, which would be disproved by a NH win). NV is a wild card, but I really think that if Edwards wins Iowa and comes in third in NH, he’s done. Then we roll into Feb 5th with Obama holding the momentum after NH and SC wins.
Now, if Edwards comes in second in NH, then HRC is doomed. I mean, does anyone actually think that she can come in third in both Iowa and NH and still be in this race? I certainly don’t.
Put another way, the media (which already wants a two way race) will not tolerate a three way race on the Dem side past NH. Now, it could be an Obama-Edwards race, but I think an Obama-HRC race is more likely.
I think the good news is that any of the four ( I would include Richardson) make for great candidates. I agree with Archer Dem, it is not sewn up at all.
Well lets look at it this way….
Edwards wins Iowa with Obama coming in second and HRC in third, HRC wins NH slightly ahead of Obama (Obama would declare victory, “comeback kid” with Edwards in third like in 2004 (actually he made 4th) Then we go to Nevada where its a fourway slugfest, includes Richardson, Richardson gets 2nd or 3rd and claims to have the momentum so stays in the race, the winner wouldn’t gain much unless its not one of the two frontrunners, because their victory there is expected. Then we go to South Carolina, Obama wins because Blacks would united behind him in the end, with Edwards and HRC tied somewhere for 2nd.
So leading up to Tsumnami Tuesday we have 1 win for Edwards, 1 win for Obama, and one win HRC, and a small claimed victory For Richardson. That equals an all out battle for Feb. 5th, Richardson would take the southwest more likely than not, Edwards wins the border southern states and plain states, HRC wins the Northeast and west coast (big win), and Obama the midwest and fights for the Northeast. This is an equation for a brokered convention, or at least a prolonged primary fight seeing as, no one candidate has the resources to compete in all of the states and would have to pick their battles. All of these candidates are very strong in particular regions, all of which vote on Feb 5th, Its gonna be quite a ride
Whoa - while I agree the AP’s methodology is suspect, if you start arguing that every poll whose results you don’t like is flawed, you’ll start to seem like Brodkerb. Without the fun of having been paid for your outrage. Just kidding.
Yeah, a three week pooling period is pretty strange. Personally, I kind of like where we are. If your ear is to the ground, you can see the strategies the candidates have committed too. Good strategies, based on different ideas of how the contest will pan out. Personally, I’ve heard the theory that if Obama wins Iowa, comes close in New Hampshire, and is looking good in South Carolina, the DNC will reverse itself and say that Florida’s early primary is alright. Clinton is very much ahead in Florida, probably on name recognition alone.
Personally, I think that a bit of conspiracy theory and a bit over the top, but whether the DNC blinks on Florida has the potential to back things even more chaotic.
John S-
I promise not to challenge every poll I don’t like, just this one.
If the DNC changes their position on Florida after IA and NH, there will be massive outrage. I think this is unlikely given that Howard Dean runs the show over there, remember all the nasty things the Clinton camp said about him in ‘04? I can’t believe he would sacrifice his integrity to help her in such a shameless way.
I actually question all polls in Iowa, at least to some degree. I just don’t know how good they will be at accurately predicting the outcome of the caucus, which is what they seem to be being used for. (at least in news reports) Beyond that, there’s a fair bit of volatility in the polling right now, so the value is increasingly limited.
Personally, I wouldn’t get too spun up about any of them right now.
SO then any take my bet it will be Clinton??
C’mon a dollar each if you all are so sure this is still open. I know for FACT it will be Clinton and I will put my money where my mouth is, will you?
I would bet not for as much as the democRats would like us to believe this is an open race, Hillary bought this 4 years ago and she is not going to let go.
I will enjoy bringing this post up in the future when the nomination goes to CLINTON!
Talk of any other candidate is against Clinton law and we all know what happens if you tick Hillary off, so you best get used to the idea you WILL BE voting for her. I may as well tell you to as that is what your party is going to tell you and we all know how democRats fall in lock step with the party lines.
Zack-
Dean doesn’t, but is it all his decision? Does the rest of the National Committee have a say? Though my more serious point: if Florida’s delegates get un-embargoed (potentially for perfectly respectable reasons) it does change the dynamic of things.
Personally, I think there is always room for movement (though the poll released before thanksgiving had crosstabs which suggested that Obama was achieving a dominant position in the ‘second-choice’ area.
The big question: will Edwards’ support drop of through December as people give up on him and go to their second choice.
John S,
If the unembargoing happens anytime after IA and NH but before the nominee is chosen, there is no respectable reason. I certainly agree with you that it would change the dynamic.
GO HILLARY GO!
Zack,
I don’t think my NH scenario is that far-fetched if IA goes Edwards, Obama, Clinton. Edwards is running way down in NH and Obama is quickly making up ground. Normally there wouldn’t be that much of a bump, but the fact that a 3rd place for Clinton in IA would be more damaging than normal simply because it utterly destroys the inevitability arguments could set it up for Obama’s 2nd place bounce to keep him ahead of Edwards and capitalize on Clinton’s fall.
Of course, there are so many possible situations and a lot of it depends on the margins of victory, not just the placements. If nothing else I think it is going to be interesting. However, Hillary, if she wins IA, will probably deliver a knockout blow. The Republican side, however, doesn’t possess a scenario where the race can be decided solely by IA.
Archer Dem -
I agree that your NH scenario is totally plausible. I just said a three way contest on Feb 5th is far fetched. I also agree with you that it will eb interesting to watch - this cycle is turning into a political junky’s dream!
I’m just trying to be hopeful that my vote in MN will matter and that a good selection of candidates will still be viable by the time we cast our votes. As I am undecided and probably will be until right up until the time I cast my vote, I want the biggest pool of candidates possible to choose from.
Hillary is up 20 points nationwide…you cannot beat Bill
Wow, much of this makes me laugh like every democRat does not know Hillary already paid for this and WILL BE who the party tells you to vote for. :)
I think the thing that everyone misses in the discussions of these polls is how difficult it is to measure a candidates strength in a caucus state. Success in a caucus state depends more on organization than it does on a candidate’s popularity. I’ve worked Iowa for presidential candidates, and I can speak from some experience…candidates who believe their press on their strength in that state are destined for failure.
My candidate and his vice-president still haven’t announced. Gore/Bloomberg ‘08.
Your headline is right. Consider this, as well:
At this point four years ago, Iowa was viewed as a battle between Dean and Gephardt. Kerry and Edwards were also-rans.
Polling in an up-close-and-personal caucus state means so little because the situation is very fluid compared to an air-war primary state.
Obama could win in a blow out, or Edwards could pull ahead, or (my favorite) Hillary could eke one out.
I think I’d rather try my hand at the weather. Looks like snow again, but maybe not.
Wow. Didn’t realize how late I came to this party (for this post). Hope someone reads that.
Anyone lurking gets rewarded with my favorite political story of the day:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120402333.html?hpid=artslot
It’s a little weird, but also kind of cool.