As first scooped last Friday by our great MNBlogosphere colleagues, MN Campaign Report and Eric Black there are rumblings that Jim Ramstad is seriously reconsidering his retirement.
That rumor has gained more traction as this morning Roll Call picks up on it too.
Ramstad Could Decide to Stay
Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) is seriously reconsidering his previously announced decision to retire in 2008 and could reverse course and run for re-election, according to Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill familiar with his thinking.
(again, subscription req. and I’m much too scared of Roll Call’s lawyers to post the article in it’s entirety.)
There are two really interesting factoids in the Roll Call article, Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) whose close friendship with Ramstad was forged through their shared experience fighting alcoholism and substance abuse and as they both have fought for mental health parity said:
“… the possibility that Congress could pass the legislation next year was weighing on Ramstad.
“It’s very much impacting his decision,” Kennedy said.
Kennedy said he felt that Ramstad would feel more comfortable leaving if leadership on both sides of the Capitol would agree to pass the mental health bill through both chambers early in the new year. ”
And this spectacular quote from former Representative Jack Quinn,
Former Rep. Jack Quinn (R-N.Y.), a moderate who is now a lobbyist on K Street, said he believes at least a half-dozen or more Republican retirements are on the horizon next year, and that many of them may be from swing districts…
“It’s really difficult. I look at the situation three years removed,” said Quinn, who retired in 2004. “It seems like moderate Members are being marginalized more and more. I think there’s going to be more [retirements].”
(emphasis mine)
If the Rammer comes back he’s gonna win. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that if Jim Ramstad rejoins the race Jim Hovland and Terri Bonoff will probably drop out of the race on the Democrat side.
I’m curious what his un-retirement would mean for all of the right wing nut jobs who cheered when he announced his retirement?
[update:] I was speculating wildly up there when I said I figured JHova and and Sen. Bonoff would probably drop out of th race if Jim Ramstad reentered the race. (Hey, at least I admit it.) I just received an email from the Hovland’s campaign:
“Jim is still in the race whether or not Ramstad reenters the race. In fact, he’s energized by the prospect of taking Ramstad on and highlighting the differences between a Democratic and Republican approach to governance.”
I met with Jim last week and there will be a write up of our talk coming soon — but I can’t stress enough how impressed I was with Hovland’s thoughtful approach to the issues facing our country. If Jim Ramstad reentered the race any Democrat would have a very difficult uphill climb, but who knows? Hovland’s got an amazing amount of leadership and wisdom he ccould offer to the people of the 3rd.
[update 2:] From the ‘noff.
“Regardless of what Jim Ramstad decides about his political future, I remain certain about mine: my campaign to bring a new voice to the Congress for Minnesota’s families will continue. I look forward to a vigorous campaign to determine who will best represent Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District without regard to whom my opponent is.”
Terri Bonoff already has the best organization of any Democrat to run in the 3rd in any recent memory, she’ll be an imposing opponent for Ramstad, but I think that it will still be a very difficult uphill climb for a Democrat to beat him if he gets back in the race.
Jim is not going to run for that seat again. There is already movement taking place to prepare his run for Governor. Its the only way the Republicans can keep that seat out of the DFL hands one last time. Very smart move on their part if someone like Dan Severson doesn’t screw it up.
Exactly how would Rep. Severson be in a position to “screw it up”. Is that referencing a gubernatorial race?
If(!) Rep. Ramstad un-retires, should it be an automatic presumption that he would gain the endorsement of CD3 Republicans?
And how would this decision affect Dems and Independents who have supported him in the past? Would they view his action as opportunistic or sincere?
I think Ramsted will stay out. Bonoff has been in the race long enough that she can’t really back out of it. Ramsted would still probably beat her, but he would have to work for it and when was the last time he actually had to do that?
Nobody but the tiny fraction of the population that reads political blogs no much about Ramsted’s retirement and Bonoff’s candidacy. I imagine Ramstad would win handily without putting in much more work than he is used to.
If Ramstad runs Bonoff is screwed. She would loose a race for that seat and if she backs out she looks like an opportunistic coward, making her less attractive for other higher office opportunities.
The good side of things for Democrats is that if Ramstad runs and wins the right wing of the Republican party will be more pissed off than most DFLers.
Well, if The Rammer gets back in, it’s a serious blow to DFL hopes for the seat. Not necessarily fatal, because unretiring has its own cost. I don’t think that Bonoff drops out at this point, even if Ramstad gets back in. (I think that’s true of Madia as well, but I’m less sure about Hovland, who would have no political cost by leaving a race against Ramstad)
While Ramstad is popular in the district, a well-financed, smart campaign would still have a chance. And it would require Ramstad to actually campaign and work at it, which he hasn’t had to do for quite some time. Ramsatd would be seriously favored, but expectinga result like last election is silly. And losing to Ramstad doesn’t kill a DFLers hope to run again for the seat, especially if they campaign well this time around. Pulling out because Ramstad decided to unretire would probably disqualify them for a loooong time, because no one votes for the chicken. How would a candidate go before DFL voters and ask for an endorsement after having admitted they only want the seat when they think it’s a good get? (Hovland gets a pass on this because of the party switch, I think.)
Of course, some of this may just be a way for Ramstad to pressure the Democratic Congress into passing his bill. (Which is a smart play, give Ramstad credit)
End of discussion, he’s aint doing it, stop suggesting he will. Prepare to be assimilated, yada yada yada
The interesting thing about Ramsted is that he didn’t really have to campaign in the last few elections. In a weird way, this basically gave him a time-warp back to the less divisive times before Bush. Ramsted hasn’t had to defend his votes on some of the very divisive issues of the last few years, at least not against a real challenger.
For the first time in a while, his constituents will have an actual choice between two people who are campaigning to win, with all that comes along with that. Part of 2006 was how the music stops for a ‘safe’ seat when the incumbent has to run their first election in a decade. Think of Gil in the 1st, or the two former Republicans from Eastern Iowa: they each started 2006 thinking they were safe for ever. But when a real challenger emerged, the politics of that year caught up with them.
Ramstad could file and then spend the rest of his term on vacation in Mexico, and he would still be easily re-elected.
If the leadership is indeed trying to keep him in that seat, it must mean they have no confidence in Erik Paulsen. I can see why they want him to stay.
Terri Bonoff is an actual candidate, who’s running so she can win. That gives the race a much different dynamic than the DFL candidate last time, who didn’t even up her own name on a lot of her bumper stickers. I think, given the fact that he would be un-retiring and facing a real challenger, there is at least the chance that Ramsted could end up like Guttneckt.
Ramstad could run a campaign based on making fart noises and he would still win easily.
This is Ramstad’s seat. If he wants it, it is his.
My bet is that if he comes back, it is for 2 more terms. At that point, redistricting will make him run against another incumbent, and that would be a better time to ride off into the sunset.
Actually there is a candidate in the race who will give Ramstad a real run for this seat if he does indeed come back. Ash Madia is a strong candidate. It is an interesting race for the endorsement alone! One candidate is good (Hovland) and one is excellent (Madia). Bonoff is a good state senator and should stay where she is.
I’d be interested in how this seat would poll given a Paulsen-Madia race. It will really be competitive.
The negative for Ramstad is how many of his own party complained about him when he announced his retirement - calling him a Rino and proclaiming good riddance. Must have been disheartening.
Ramstad could be found in bed with a live boy and a dead girl and he would crush Madia. Get it through your heads people, if Ramstad comes back, its no longer worth talking about this seat.
I see Ramstad having a tough time if he gets back into the race. I really don’t buy this rumor - because it undermines Paulsen’s campaign. If Ramstad gets back in, does that mean Paulsen drops out? Or does that mean there is a contested endorsement fight in the 3rd District?
Sean - I’d suggest actually contacting candidates - rather than just speculating that they would probably drop out of the race should Ramstad get in again.
Dear Dan:
You’re wrong.
Love,
Josh
Ramstad is a great candidate in the district, and has been a good Congressman (even a partisan dem like me will recognize it). But you are sixteen different kinds of crazy if you think that he has some kind of ownership lock on the seat that would allow him to unretire with no consequences and sweep to an easy victory over a strong DFL candidate. I mean, if he does, I hope he’s that foolish to think that he can run a porch-front campaign. But your hyperbole is absurd. He’s made himself vulnerable by annoucing the retirement. That’s the way it is. If he got hit by a big scandal he’d get destroyed. He’s not the teflon candidate, simply a very good one in a what has become a swing district.
At a DFL event tonight, all three congressional candidates pledged to stay in the race should Ramstad un-retire.
They’re all in it to win it regardless of who the Republicans put up there.
I also think it will be a fight in the 3rd no matter if Rammer is in or not.
Let’s just hope congress passes the mental health parity bill that he has been working on for so many years. It has lots of co-sponsors, bi-partisan support, and is the right thing to do. The first drafts of this bill were sponsored by Paul Wellstone, Pete Domenici and Ramstad.
I believe Ramstad will continue working for Minnesota when he leaves congress. I think his most effective years are still ahead of him in the private sector. With 1 in 9 Minnesota drivers having DWI, perhaps a Ramstad Center for Addiction and Prevention or something.
This district is actually called MN-Ramstad, and not MN-03, because he does in fact own it. Ramstad could change his mind every day up until the date of the election and still win easily.
I know everyone is excited about this district, but if Ramstad runs, it just isn’t going to happen. The retirement and unretirement will have occurred nearly a year before the election, and the only people who were affected by it are the three Democratic candidates.
Its good to run serious candidates in every district, but its not going to happen here, and even if its another Democratic year, its not going to happen in the 2nd or the 6th. Frankly, I think the focus should be on keeping Walz’s seat, as well as electing a Democratic senator and president.
I think CD-2 and CD-6 shouldnt be completely hands off. Bachmann is a complete nut job and CD-2 only has a PVI of R 3. A great candidate can win either one.
I do have to agree with Dan a bit though, I would only ever vote against Ramstad out of principle and because of the Iraq war.
Him running for the GOP ticket for governor in 2010 makes me excited, it means that no matter who wins, there will at least be some progress. There could be a whole lot with a DFLer or they could be some strong steps in the right direction with Ramstad.
And have there been any rumors/blog-threads about what the 3rd’s RINO-Hunters think of this? I seem to remember about a year ago that some Club for Growth nutjob was thinking of taking a crack at Ramstad in the primary. So I’d say Ramstad might have some problems in this own backyard.
Dan:
What about if Ramstad killed a homeless guy? Still win easily? Or what if Ramstad moved to Massachusetts and married Larry Craig? Still crush the DFLer then? How about if Ramstad publicly urinated on a flag? Still a cruise-control victory?
You have obviously thought through all the angles. I’d like to know just how far he can go. Bob
OMGOMGOMG!!
Please god make Ramstad run again. We need every Republican who can win to run!
WE’RE AT WAR!!!!
I don’t care how much it costs, or how many lives are lost, or how much money is spent, or how much corruption there is, I don’t care how many weapons are missing, or how many billions of dollars are missing!! We have to prevent the Muslims from invading the homeland!!
For the sake of the children, Jim, RUN.
I have independently checked into this rumor, and sources that I trust confirm it - and that Paulsen would step aside.
Bob: Yes, Yes and Yes.
it’s funny that in one paper he might still run while in the other he confirmed he wasn’t running. I think that if he doesn’t announce definitively by the caucuses he’s not running.
If he does, he’s obviously the favorite though not by the degree the 2 Dan’s think. Don’t do it, Jim! You won’t be in the majority ever again and you’ll still be lonely…unless…you become a democrat.
“will probably drop out of the race on the Democrat side.”
Geez, even democrats have it wrong. It’s DEMOCRATIC side!!!!!!!!!!