Comments on: MPR Poll Has NO Predictive Value Whatsoever

By: Bob Collins

Bob Collins — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:19:27 +0000

Heh heh. I don’t vote for top of the ticket races that I cover. Fortunately, I no longer cover races.

Oh, and I don’t vote for candidates who don’t EARN my vote.

I know a lot of people disagree with that, but I’m pretty old school. I think the voters should set the agenda, not the candidates, their machines, media, or blogs.

So shoot me. (g)

By: Bill Kling

Bill Kling — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:16:03 +0000

You’re asking Bob Collins for a political opinion? The guy doesn’t even vote, for chrissakes!

By: Miss Pissy

Miss Pissy — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 00:13:24 +0000

DantheManless -
How lazy can you get? For the DFL, you may show up and cast a presidential preference ballot anytime up until 8pm. No going through resolutions or selecting delegates. If you don’t stay, you won’t have a voice in the Senate race, but you can express your preference for president, and the vote is binding. Pretty much as easy as voting in a primary, huh?

By: st paul sage

st paul sage — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 17:11:21 +0000

I do think the poll is misleading, or at least representing it without the pile of caveats, is misleading. All the factors you cite change the race dramatically since the sampling was done and since it wasn’t even of likely voters much less likely caucus-goers, it gives us no sense what that small group will do.

Polls are snapshots of particular things, in this case how some average Minnesotans felt about the race a week ago. But I think you can have polls that at least give you a faint sensse of what’s going to happen.

A poll of folks who’ve gone to the last two caucuses seems a much better barometer of how “the deciders” (like that one?) on Tuesday will vote.

By: DantheMan

DantheMan — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 04:23:00 +0000

True - but caucuses always draw way less than a primary. I’d prefer to see candidates in a primary, not a caucus whose format dates back to 1795 and has a 77 page policy-and-procedure manual.

You’d get way more independents out in a primary. Funny thing is that they will decide the General, but hardly are noticed in a caucus.

A good turnout for the New Hampshire primary is around 50%. A good turnout for the Iowa caucus is around 6%.

But technically you are right, everyone is “invited”.

By: Richard

Richard — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 02:05:52 +0000

But everyone is invited. If only 6% show up, doesn’t that give them the right to voice opinion and affect policy? If you have a problem with 6%, you need to work to make that percentage higher.

By: DantheMan

DantheMan — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 01:26:53 +0000

Your analysis might be right, but I read that activities on Tuesday involve more like 6% of the voting public, not 20%. That is a pretty tiny slice of Minnesota to be determining candidates. But I probably won’t be there so have no right to complain.

By: Bob Collins

Bob Collins — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 19:27:30 +0000

I’m not familiar with the methodology of the poll. I saw it the same time you did and I haven’t really read it. I assume your points are all truthful.

Keep in mind, though, I have a real problem with the horse race nature of political coverage anyway and polls play into that.

I would prefer to read, for example, how all of the candidates feel about the versions of the mental health parity bill, for example.

But nobody is REALLY interested in issues anymore, despite what they say.

I was on Talk of the Nation on NPR the other day talking about Select A Candidate with some columnist from the Chicago Tribune and he said the problem with it is “it’s only about issues.” Well, duh…. it’s like he thought “how will people ever be able to factor in non-issue, superficial, factors.

How, indeed.

By: Sean

Sean — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 19:20:01 +0000

Thanks for commenting Bob. I guess my question is, do you disagree with our analysis?

Sean

By: Bob Collins

Bob Collins — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 19:16:20 +0000

No poll should be considered to have predictive value. That’s the mistake the GOP made when they challenged the Strib’s polling efforts. Bill Cooper would hold up a poll before the election, then hold up the results of the election and say, “see? It’s a bad poll.”

Actually, it was a bad definition of what any poll is.