A poll released by MPR today [pdf link] shows Al Franken beating Norm Coleman 43.2% to 40%. This is just barely within the margin of error (3.2%) but is incredibly significant as the first poll to show Franken above Coleman since he announced. Since his announcement, however, Franken has steadily gained ground on Coleman with almost every poll released and these latest numbers seem to confirm Team Franken’s contention that once Minnesotans meet Al, they go Al.
Perhaps even more significant than the overall poll numbers is that Franken is shown beating Coleman in all three issue areas asked about (Economy, Iraq, and Health Care) with his most significant margin on the issue of Iraq (55% to 32%) showing that Minnesotans are still very discontent with our direction in that war. The poll also shows that a sizable chunk of independents are still up for grabs in the race.
The MPR poll also reveals that Al Franken has a large lead over the other DFL candidates. In the battle for the nomination Al beats Mike Ciresi 32% to 28% 42% to 18% [edit: bad typo] with Cohen and Pallmeyer at 2% and 3% respectively. Still, 35% of those polled indicated that they have yet to make up their mind. Interestingly, Franken also does the best against Coleman of all the candidates. While Al bests Coleman 43.2% to 40%, a Ciresi/Coleman match-up comes out in Coleman’s favor 43% to 38%.
I’m sure that Republicans reading this blog will quickly point to Zack’s post yesterday claiming the MPR poll to be worthless but if those critics would re-read that post prior to jumping to conclusions they will note that all Zack’s criticisms were specific to the Presidential race and none of those short-comings translate to the Senate race. Specifically, it obviously does not make a difference in the Senate race that this poll was conducted before the South Carolina primary, and polling all Minnesotans makes sense in a poll about the general election. Moreover, the approval ratings in the MPR poll for Senators Klobuchar and Coleman remain consistent with other polls released in the past few months.
Overall, this is tremendous news for Team Franken and has to have Norm Coleman worried about whether his steady decline against Franken will continue as the general election approaches and people learn more about his last 6 years in the Senate. It’s going to be hard to run away from your record this cycle and we all know how well that turned out for Mark Kennedy…
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I like Zack’s headline “MPR Poll Has NO Predictive Value Whatsoever.”
Well, now that I have the chance start the real conversation!
Anyway, I wasn’t thinking about the post about the MPR poll. I was thinking about those posts during the fall about Franken’s high burn-rate, and the defense of it in the face of some less than stellar poll numbers.
The defense ran: “Well, he’s running a Wellstone style campaign, and these expenditures early are normal. When his poll numbers start to move in a few months, that burn-rate will be vindicated.”
Well, its been a few months. Franken is at the same low 40% numbers he was months ago. His margin over Mike Ciresi’s campaign, a campaign I might add that could still easily take up its intensity a notch and push hard, is small. And there is still a huge poll of DFLers yet to decide.
So ignore Mike. Like Ann Coulter, his tongue has been bought by now I’m sure. He’s just doing the job he was paid to do. Talk to me, the DFLer whose heard promises how Franken’s surge is ‘going to be soon now, soon’ as many times as I’ve heard Bush say Iraq would be safe ‘soon now, soon’.
I’d say your explaination should go to the people who’ve seen Franken spend a huge amount of money for little movement. Or is Franken going to start surging soon?
John, I wouldn’t call this “little movement.” This is the first poll yet that has shown Franken besting Coleman — I mean, that’s huge. I would argue the exact opposite of your point — that Franken’s expenditures are apparently paying off as evidenced by this poll. Frankly, I’m a little dumbfounded that you’re even making the argument you are. What more are/were you expecting to see?
Face facts little mikey, your party is dead. This is the same downward slide that norm has been on for two years and now the slide will get steeper. norm and yourself have been part of the group that has buggered the economy, ruined our reputation overseas, all while stuffing as much money as is possible into the pockets of the wealthiest men on the planet. You’ve spent the last 8 years propping up liars and thieves and traitors in the Republican party. Now it’s time for some serious people to clean up the mess that the criminal Bush administration has created. The corporate norm will not be part of that group.
Matt-
I’m using the numbers you posted on your own blog.
http://mnpublius.com/index.php?s=Another Day Another Bad Poll for Coleman
So we have a poll within the margin of error where Franken beats Coleman. The last few were Franken, within the margin of error, losing very slightly to Coleman.
In fact, on those previous polls had Franken at 41-44%. This poll has Franken at… 43%. I would call that very little movement, especially when seven figures have been spent on that ‘movement’. Now, Coleman’s numbers have dropped eight or nine points, and that is certainly significant. That’s movement. That’s also more an indicator of Coleman’s weakness than Al Franken’s strength.
So again - seven figures have been burned, and Franken’s poll numbers have barely budged. Its been known since Nov. 8 2006 that Coleman’s week - and this shows he still is. But this says nothing about Franken’s strength. Just that he has spent seven figures and not moved in the polls.
John S,
the important thing to note is that he seems to be softening Coleman’s support. I’m sure there were a lot of people who were in the “I won’t vote for Franken” camp that now have switched to Undecided. That’s huge, and that’s movement no matter how you slice it. I’d be interested to see if his negatives have went down, I have a feeling they have.
I was wondering how you would make hay with the news about Angry Al coming from a poll you just finished telling your believers wasn’t worth using as toilet paper…
Just acting like you never said it hadn’t occurred to me, but after reflecting upon the fact that most Democrats I’ve met have the mental capacity of a jar of mint jelly I can see that counting on them to have already forgotten about the earlier post makes perfect sense.
Archer Dem-
I was interested in the numbers, so I read the post. I didn’t see any mention of Franken’s negatives. Considering how Matt came at me like a JNP supporter when I suggested 43% after being at 42% wasn’t massive movement, I think that if his negatives had dropped, that would have been the headline. Coleman’s a member of the President’s party, at a time when the economy is in a talespin. I’d expect to his poll numbers head in the same direction as home prices.
How can such an angry man be winning Minnesota polls?
Everyone knows that because Al is angry and unhinged he is unelectable. The polls are wrong.
Norm Coleman isn’t angry about anything. He will win by a landslide!
Swiftee, when you say “Just acting like you never said it” are you referring to the whole paragraph in this post that talks about what we said? I would suggest actually reading posts before comparing anyone’s mental capacity to a jar of mint jelly lest you reveal your own in the process. Also, if you’d like to compare IQs, grades, education, SAT scores, or whatever other indicator of intelligence you can come up with, I’d be happy to.
Michael with a solid right cross!
tom a.
I agree 100%. Everyone knows the cross is only represented by the right wing.
Great Job!
In other news, Jim Cohen drops out of the Senate race. Thank God. I was getting really tired of 1/4th the time in candidate forums getting wasted on a guy who was a total vanity candidate.
But then, according to the MPR/UM poll, Cohen still managed to garner more public support in a potential primary (4%) than did Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (3%). I understand that the DFL has decided not to do a straw poll for the Senate candidates in the caucuses this Tuesday. Too bad. It would have been interesting to see how JNP’s support among activists compared with his support among the broader public.
Personally, I’m still in the “Undecided/Other Candidate” category, about 43% of the voter pool, according to the poll. I wish Betty McCollum or Tony Sertich or even Will Nelson Steger were running.
I love how MNPublius says the MPR poll is unreliable on the one hand and then touts how well Franken is doing against Coleman on the other. Survey USA has Coleman’s approval above 50% for the third month in a row. An incumbent who has over 50% approval is not considered very vulnerable.
The poll is kind of interesting. It shows that Coleman is losing support significantly, and its been a case of people going Coleman to undecided. So we have some questions.
1) Is it just the generally cruddy economy, or is it Franken? You can make the case its the fact that he’s an incumbent, and there are a lot of ticked-off former new home-owners. Or has the money been spent well?
2) Why are they going to undecided, and not Franken? I know its not necessarily Franken’s negatives. We’re nine months out, and American Idol is on. Your average voter could be feeling the economic heat and taking it out the incumbent, and just not have given much thought to who would replace him. Or is that a lot of us fooling ourselves, and a sign that while they don’t like Coleman, they aren’t at the point of voting for a comedian. However, the massive pool of DFL undecideds says something. Also, Franken has the name recognition must challengers wouldn’t have at this stage.
So here are the questions. While this poll shows Franken’s disturbing lack of movement, it does show Coleman as very vulnerable. On the other hand, Franken has negatives. And it doesn’t seem that the perception that he’s an ass is changing anytime soon. (I have personal sources at Carleton, enough to know the kid Franken screamed on wasn’t the local BK, alas, he’s quite the opposite).
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=ff954ea5-ea5f-49b1-a582-9dd73e4855c7
Say, Chris?
Norm “Smokescreen” Coleman, R=Lapdog, is in serious trouble.
How can Norm possibly lose against someone so angry like angry Al. http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh312/TFRWGuy/NotAngryAtAll.jpg
Nice smiley photo. Suitable for an ad for cosmetic dentistry.
TwoPutt,
Thank you for just proving my point: Norm Coleman’s approval rating is above 50% for the third month in a row. Great job TP!
Chris, it’s 51%, with 44% disapproval.
For you to claim, and I quote: An incumbent who has over 50% approval is not considered very vulnerable. is disingenuous at best.
ol’ Smokescreen’s in serious trouble, the numbers show it, and anyone that says diffent is headin’ the wrong way on the river Denial - without a paddle.
Chris and that self appointed blog king over at MDE are desparate to hold on to their Right Wing Tool jobs…must be lonely at the bottom…
TP & Ruthie,
If I were you, I wouldn’t bray too loudly. Coleman’s approval ratings continue to be strong in a highly DFL state. Looks like Norm might get the last laugh on Stuart Smalley.