Remember back when Al Franken trailed Norm Coleman by 20 points? Remember Michael Brodkorb crowing about how Al’s high negatives would make him totally unelectable? A funny thing happened on the way to a Coleman landslide: it all fell apart.
Check out how this race has evolved over the last year:
A trend like that puts Obamamentum to shame. Especially given that MDE and the MN GOP have been throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Franken this whole time. How many press releases with Franken quotes out of context? How many web videos and letters to the editor and Mark Drake quotes? None of these attacks, however, have slowed Franken down.
That being said, I wouldn’t expect Franken’s polling surge to continue. Coleman is an exceptionally talented politician. No one should underestimate him. Al Franken still is, and always will be, the underdog in this race. I suspect that this race will remain deadlocked for many months to come - probably all the way through Election Day. But let’s be clear, no one ever thought Franken would be tied with Coleman nine months before Election Day. His rise in the polls is truely astounding.
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You could make the numbers even more impressive if you started the graph a day before Franken announced. You could say he has gone up 40 points!
As spin goes I rate this a B. Mainly for your thoughtful effort to minimize expectations for when the campaign starts in earnest. As meaningful information a D-. A brand new candidate who has become the front runner to oppose an incumbent from a currently unpopular party has noplace to go but up. As you can see by Ciresi’s numbers being fairly close to Franken’s it is more about party affiliation and name recognition at this point than a candidates particulars.
Why haven’t you guys announced your pick yet? I don’t think anybody who has read the blog thinks you are still waiting to make up your minds. By the count of your “Filing Cabinet” there are 45 posts on Franken while Cireci and JNP are at zero. So much for the feigned objectivity.
Yes, and as our ability to tag our posts is currently a little dysfunctional we don’t have a Mike Ciresi or JNP tag. But I’m sure if you searched for “Mike Ciresi” up at the top you’d realize the error of your snark. Sean
Snark? I get criticized for being snarky by snark master? Besides, it isn’t snarky if it is true and obvious to everybody, it is an observation. Just because your don’t like it doesn’t make is snarky. Either that or consider it satire, I’ll trust you can tell the difference.
Why don’t you try posting a poll to ask readers who they think you are supporting and see if I am the only one.
And again, thanks for posting!
I did what you suggested Sean and searched for Ciresi. Out of the first ten results four are posts that only mention Franken in the Headline and or have a big picture of Franken. One is about Ciresi attacking Franken, two are about Ciresi ads, one is a negative about JNP and two are general caucus/convention stories.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of objectivity.
But again, thanks for posting!
I agree, what a difference a year makes. But I am a Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer supporter, so I’m looking at the gains he’s made. They look to be more impressive than Franken’s.
Franken started as the presumptive Democratic Party candidate, if not Ciresi. Jack was considered, at best, “spporting cast”, and was otherwise given no chance.
Now the Strib treats this as a three way race, and it is. Jack is easily in the delegate hunt for the party endorsement. He’s either first or second pick of virtually every delegate. That means he’s in a very strong position for winning the endorsement.
That he surpassed those long odds Jack faced at the start, he looks sure to beat Norm Coleman in the general.
Whoever said this sight is objective?
They have. They have also taken much offense at the idea that they are not. I imagine that there is a hope that a veneer of objectivity within the DFL will give them some credibility beyond that of MDE.
This is from their “About” section.
“Jon-David was hired by the Al Franken campaign as Director, Interactive/New Media in mid-February of 2007 and, as such, stopped blogging to keep MNPublius independent and objective in the ‘08 cycle.”
Matt also went to great lengths to explain to me on an older thread that they were objective despite Sean, after a bit of an argument, saying that they might in fact be biased because of their friend and one time fellow blogger getting a job with Franken. Again, I don’t care if they rename the site “Three guys for Franken, and other musings” but it is dishonest to claim to be something you are not. Especially if that obfuscation is used to manipulate the opinion of others in regard to something as important as this senate race.
This is a popular site with a large readership of particularly involved individuals. That influence demands a proportionate amount of accountability. My only hope is to bring a little bit of that, not to claim that the gentlemen here should not promote whomever they please for public office.
The trend is crystal clear. Franken has gained 20-25 point on ChameleNorm in one year. If the trend continues, Franken will be at about a 20 point spread by election day, or a 60-40 win, seems about right. Norm just might try to do something dramatic to rescue his sinking ship, maybe, like, switching parties again?
So long Norm, and thanks Michael for all of your help!
Get over yourself, isn’t there some nice blog for independent libertarians to go to? Blogging is all about opinion, Unlike MDE they have chosen not express paid opinions as their own.
You asked a question and I gave an honest answer. I’m sorry if my opinion doesn’t mesh nicely with you preconceived notions. I guess you are hopping for a blog where all the opinions are the same. If that is what the guys at MNpublius want I am more than happy to never post again. All they have to do is ask.
Is it just me or is the graphic attached to this post really unclear?
Are the negatives going up - which means there are fewer negatives? And where are the positives?
Needs a “key” :-)
KH, I was just giving you the “needle”, have some fun!
“Especially given that MDE and the MN GOP have been throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Franken..”
Get serious. The number of people that read political blogs and get press releases from the parties are miniscule when compared to the general population.
When Angry Al gets the Democrat nod the people of Minnesota will begin to get the Franken story brought to them in living color.
I’m sure when that happens we will have seen the last poll of the election season posted here.
Am I the only one looking at the qualifications of these guys?
ALF says he is a Minnesotan. BS. What a guy who moved here in 4th grade and left after high school does and says is more influenced by NY where he moved to and developed as a comedic writer and actor. He bankrupted Air America and appears to be intent on doing that for MN and the US govt.
Norm moved here after college and worked for MN govt for 17 years and as mayor of STP. Beats the liverwurst out of ALF when it comes to being Minnesotan.
Ciresi’s ideas about gov’t involve suing or taxing business out of existence. Does not impress me at all.
My 2 cents.
Franken is just another politician who will say what ever it takes just to get elected. He doesn’t stand for anything other than himself. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1g91BTnxwY