The delegate breakdown is as follows (in actual delegates attending, and then votes assigned)
Nelson-Pallmeyer 3 Delegates (1.5 votes)
Franken 2 Delegates (1 vote)
Undecided 3 delegates (1.5 votes)
Of the nine delegates elected to attend congressional district and state DFL conventions – the latter where party endorsement for Senate will be given – satirist and former liberal radio talk show host Franken captured six and Nelson-Pallmeyer three.
These two reports capture JNP’s math problem. When he does win, he wins by small margins. Franken has rolled up some big margins in populous parts of the state. I have yet to see any delegate block that JNP has that could counterbalance Franken’s lead. If JNP supporters have evidence contradicting this analysis, please share it.
Older reports, largely confirming my hypothesis, are after the jump.
Hubbard County
Democrats went for Al Franken at the Hubbard County DFL convention Sunday and learned a candidate will ask their help to unseat the incumbent state representative from Dist. 4B.
Three of the four delegates, elected to represent the county at the state DFL convention in June, pledged to support Franken, who is seeking endorsement to run against Republican US Sen. Norm Coleman.
The fourth delegate backs attorney Mike Ciresi.
Of the 22 delegates chosen at the DFL 7th District convention at Denfeld High School, 10 are for former comedian and talk show host Al Franken, 10 are for St. Thomas University professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, and 2 are for attorney Mike Ciresi.
US Senate Candidate Al Franken won the lion’s share of delegates at this Saturday’s SD 38 DFL Convention. Subcaucuses that named Franken as a candidate were awarded 10 of SD 38’s 17 state delegates. Subcaucuses that named the other two candidates in the race Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer were awarded 1 delegate each. The remaining five delegates were awarded to subcaucuses that were uncommitted (3) or named a presidential candidate (Clinton-1, Obama-1.)
The delegates are: Dave Erickson, Bill Kvebak, David Stowman (Detroit Lakes), Sharon Josephson, Cyndi Anderson and Tara Mason; and the alternates are: Chris Damlo, Lon Engberg, Larry Buboltz (Detroit Lakes), Brenda Menier, Robin Moeller (Detroit Lakes) and Sharon Sinclair. All declared they are supporters of Franken for U.S. Senate except Stowman, who supports Ciresi. The twelve were basically mixed or uncommitted regarding Obama and Clinton.
“The SD50 DFL Convention was held at Columbia Heights High School and it turned out to be very good news for the Al Franken campaign.
I will cut to the chase regarding the distribution of delegates to the state convention. SD50 is to send 18 delegates to Rochester this June, 9 from CD4 and 9 from CD5. The convention was split between CD4 and CD5, with CD5 being sent into another auditorium downstairs. I participated in the CD4 portion so I can’t say exactly what went on downstairs but in the CD4 part after all of the subcaucusing and voting, the 9 delegates were distributed as follows:
Al Franken-6 delegates
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer-1 delegate
Mike Ciresi-1 delegate
undecided-1 delegate
“Over 490 DFL attendees at Como Senior High for the Senate District 66 Convention. I started an Uncommitted/Education sub caucus that merged a couple times. We ended up getting three state delegates of which I am not one. The Senate State Delegate breakdown based on named sub caucuses goes like this:
2 - Mike Ciresi
4 - Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer
7 - Al Franken
4 - Uncommitted
I am missing one somewhere as I know we got 18 total.â€
SD62 elected 13 Franken delegates, 10 Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer delegates, 1 Ciresi delegate, and 4 Uncommitted Delegates.â€
That’s all and good, but when is there going to be a detailed post on the positions the candidates hold, how they differ, and their chances in November. I’ve been switching my stance a lot, and as a state delegate I’ll say that analysis like this is interesting, but doesn’t address why one should support one candidate or another.
I’m not trying to persuade you or anyone else to support either Franken or JNP. I’m trying to accurately report on the state of the race.
Winona County on Saturday went
Al 5
Jack 3
Uncomitted 3
SD 33:
Franken 11
JNP: 1
UND: 4
Al seems to be losing momentum. Granted, for weeks he’s been flirting with 50% in the delegate count. One would expect as the “inevitability” set in and with Ciresi leaving the race, Al would be pulling at least the 60% needed for endorsement. But Al’s still stuck woefully short of that supermajority, and he’s tanking in the general election polling. I suspect we’ve just witnessed Al’s high water mark.
Here’s my guess on Murray County:
JNP 1
Franken 0.5
Uncommitted 1.5
I know the .5 Franken is solid, I’m a lean JNP, and the other .5 for JNP is someone whose politics are pretty much identical to JNP and I’d be shocked otherwise. The spouse of the other JNP is also a delegate who might lean JNP, and then 2 are totally unknown to me.
“Granted, for weeks he’s been flirting with 50% in the delegate count. One would expect as the “inevitability†set in and with Ciresi leaving the race, Al would be pulling at least the 60% needed for endorsement.”
Franken 31.5
JNP 13
UND 16.5
Cirisi 3
Of all the votes garnered by the currently running candidates, Franken has gotten 70% Based on these figures, if the undeclared and cirisi’s delegates were proportionately divided, Al would have >60% If the undeclared divide along the same lines as those who have been apportioned between the two current candidates, it will be closer to 70% for Franken.
Given Franken’s polling numbers against coleman, and JNP’s pathetic fundraising and polling numbers….this is a no brainer for the remaining undeclared delegates, in my opinion.
Jack and Al split the delegates in SD 58 this weekend. Officially, the tally was JNP 6; Al 8; uncommitted 2, but sources verified the uncommitted strongly favored JNP.
Not the math you asked for in the post, but another update that, oddly, I haven’t seen anyplace on the blogs.
Franken captured 6 of Douglas County’s 7 delegates, with one going to Ciresi.
Here’s the break down from Goodhue County’s DFL convention:
->9 total delegates to the state convention were selected
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: 5
Al Franken: 3
Uncommitted: 1
(The alternatives were also in Jack’s favor).
Thanks for update.
How about reports from SD59 and SD61 that had conventions last weekend?
Others?
Here’s the report from my convention and a few others from folks I know:
SD 59
JNP: 6
Franken: 11
Uncommitted: 4 (at least one likely JNP)
Beltrami (half delegates)
JNP 2.5
Franken 1
Uncommitted: 1.5
Carlton County
JNP: 5
Franken: 2
Uncommitted: 2 (likely JNP)
I believe Lake County was 8 JNP and 1 Franken, if I recall correctly…