The Star Tribune had an article this morning titled:
Prof who ousted Ciresi eyes Franken
Joe Bodell is outraged, and not without reason. I think its kind of silly to suggest that it was JNP that pushed Ciresi out of the race. Especially when Franken is turning in delegate counts like these from the Iron Range (per our favorite Ranger Blogger, Aaron Brown)
The nitty-gritty: Franken won Itasca County 8-4. In Hibbing at the SD 05 convention, Franken won 18-7. In essence, Franken carries the Iron Range today 26-11 — more than 2-1.
The Range isn’t the only place where Franken is on a roll. For instance, in the western suburban SD 44 (which includes Al’s childhood home), Franken picked up 15 delegates to JNP’s 5 with 2 uncommitted. While I haven’t kept a precise count, I’m very confident in saying that Franken had significant delegate leads coming out of most (if not all) of the conventions in the 3rd Congressional District. I am only aware of two Senate District or County Conventions that JNP has carried. Now, JNP may have won more, but in order to be competitive with Franken at the DFL Convnetion, he would need to make up for the enormous wins Franken had up on the Range, in SD 44 and other places. I have seen no evidence that he has done this. Franken has dominated around the state and DFLers are taking notice. After this weekend’s delegate counts sink in, I would not be surprised to see some heavy hitters endorse Franken in the near future.
Bottom line: based on the hodgepodge of delegate counts I’ve seen from around the state, I think it is becoming increasingly likely that Franken wins the DFL endorsement on the first ballot. Don’t take it personally JNP backers, I like your guy, but its hard to argue with cold, hard math.
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I think the problem is that Jack and his team really cut back on the music and crowns and such tactics. They need more flare. Banjos are the key to victory, I say.
Its no fun when the race is over. The same thing happened in 2006 when Wetterling dropped out. Ford Bell, who had been a complete afterthought until that point, suddenly was being presented was a real challenge to Klobuchar.
“Ford Bell, who had been a complete afterthought until that point, suddenly was being presented was a real challenge to Klobuchar.”
How’d that turn out?
Despite the media hype, Bell wasn’t a credible challenger to Klobuchar. Just like JNP isn’t a credible challenger to Franken. And by credible, I don’t mean JNP isn’t a really good guy, its just that he has no chance to beat Franken.
One distinct difference between Jack Nelson Pallmeyer supporters and Al Franken supporters is that Franken people don’t talk about issues. They only talk about politics.
The reason why Jack is doing so well and picking up so many delegates around the state, is because he represents the DFL Party base on the issues, from single payer health care to global warming - energy and environment issues, to speaking out against the war in Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion and consistently calling for an immediate end to the occupation ever since. He’s a populist who is authentic, principled, and visionary. A dream come true for DFL activists.
I think JNP was the key to Ciresi dropping out when he did. Franken had his supporters and the “anybody but Franken” crowd” split over JNP and Ciresi with the more ideologically constant going mostly for JNP. If it had been Franken against Ciresi one on one Ciresi would most likely still be in the race with a good chance to turn things around the later thing got in the process. Those that dislike Franken won’t likely change their minds and most of the Franken supporters I have talked to acknowledge that either of the other two candidates would make excellent senators. The perfect recipe for a big shift away from Franken at the convention.
I just wonder that if Franken looses if his supporters will admit they blew it or if they will try to rationalize the mistake away.
“The reason why Jack is doing so well and picking up so many delegates around the state”
Hello? JNP is getting his ass kicked by Franken.
KH,
How many DFL conventions have you attended through out the years?
One state and 5 at other levels.
KH, I think what HCDFL is saying that he/she disagrees with your “read” on what will happen at the convention. If that is indeed what HCDFL is saying — I agree. I believe you underestimate Franken supporters.
Franken on a roll? Then how come they tried to get the SD58 convention adjourned before delegates could be elected?
I think Franken supporter over-estimate themselves. Much like Franken does. A T.V. and radio comedian who runs for Senate is most likely driven by his own ego more than anything else.
This horserace talk (“NP is getting his ass kicked by Franken”) is so inciteful.(sacasm in case you didn’t notice). Any analysis of positions, plans, actual speech quotes? Why don’t you just talk sports if you just want talk trash. Our senate race is rather important.
Andrew Larson:
“The reason why Jack is doing so well and picking up so many delegates around the stateâ€
Response by Dan:
“Hello? JNP is getting his ass kicked by Franken”
I think the point is that Jack has been earning delegates and in fact had earned more delegates than Ciresi which is what prompted Ciresi to drop out. Ciresi, who gave his own campaign $2 million, was outnumbered in delegates by someone without even one quarter of that monetary support, just joined the race in November, and depends on a volunteer base. I don’t know about you, but these days I consider that a victory.
I believe we need to focus on the difference between Ciresi (yes I mean Ciresi) and Franken on the issues, because we already know that Franken won the popularity contest between the two based on his personality. But what seperated Franken and Ciresi on the issues? Anything? This is increasingly disturbing to me when I can see such a clear division between Jack and Franken. If Franken is just a celebrity version of Ciresi with a better sense of humor, then why should Franken be endorsed and not Jack? Every debate or interview I see with Franken he practically endorses Jack himself. I’m not saying we aren’t grateful for what Franken has done with his money in the MN DFL, in fact, I think it would be a smashing idea he get behind Jack and then we’d all win! It is a nice thought…
I challenge anyone reading this to explain to me the reasons why Franken and not Jack WITHOUT using the dreaded word: electable. Let’s just talk issues here. I think we all know after electing Paul Wellstone that “electable” is whatever WE make it. Everyone knows that if Jack could get the endorsement of the DFL he would beat Norm Coleman. It’s like putting Jesus up against the Devil. Right???
This senate race is over… sorry but that is the true facts, even if the true believers won’t admit it. Remember you have to get the guy elected in the end by a fairly shallow and uninterested electorate. Policy wonks may matter big time in a primary but once in the general it becomes the shallow end of the pool.
Now might be a good time to groom Jack Nelson Pallmeyer for a run at Pawlenty. That is a race and job he could really change the world with… bring this state back from Republican excesses and prove the progressive message matters. Just a thought… one of my pet peeves is all the progressive politicians who want to attack world sized problems on the world stage when we have hungry kids, broken schools and bridges failing down right here in River City. What ever happened to the State that Worked?
I don’t know how much insight it takes to figure out that Franken is kicking JNP’s ass, but some people here obviously can’t figure it out.
“Any analysis of positions, plans, actual speech quotes?”
Completely irrelevant at this point. The delegates - the people who are deciding this thing - have heard all the positions and plans and seen the speeches. They have been bombarded with calls, and fliers and emails. And for better or worse, they have overwhelmingly chosen Franken. One more debate isn’t going to make any difference.
This is my favorite:
“Ciresi, who gave his own campaign $2 million, was outnumbered in delegates by someone without even one quarter of that monetary support, just joined the race in November, and depends on a volunteer base. I don’t know about you, but these days I consider that a victory.”
Actually, do you know what second place is in a primary election?
LOSING.
At least Ciresi was smart enough to figure out that he lost.
“Everyone knows that if Jack could get the endorsement of the DFL he would beat Norm Coleman.”
About that electibility, according to the Strib today, JNP would lose to Coleman by 29 points. http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/16750106.html
And still my question goes unanswered. Why would a Franken endorsement be preferred over a Jack endorsement based on the issues?
I think everyone on each campaign and who reads this blog is aware of the delegate procedure and the current count in Franken’s favor. A lot can happen before the state convention. I’m sure there will be some uncommitted and Ciresi delegates at the convention that may be still considering who to vote for. We don’t want them to think it’s over now, do you???
The delegates to the state convention in June will decide who best represents DFLer’s and who will be the candidate who takes on Norm Coleman, not random people shouting opinions on blogs. If you are one of these people who is not a state delegate to the DFL convention who is shouting opinions on blogs, you have absolutely no effect on who wins this contest between Jack and Al. The persuasion happens in the personal conversations between fellow delegates. Keep talking if you like while people who participate, decide who the next DFL endorsed senate candidate will be. In other words Delegates are decision makers, and non delegate bloggers sit on the sidelines. So to recap, the amount of power a state delegate holds on the outcome of the DFL endorsement for U.S. Senate=100%. The power held by a non-delegate blogger=0%.
Well, if Franken has a major scandal, (i.e., calling a reporter a whore, getting caught with a $5,000/hr hooker, using a wide stance, etc.) then he won’t be the nominee.
Absent something like that, he is going to be the nominee. Again, the delegates know where the candidates stand on the issues, and they have overwhelmingly chosen Franken.
“I challenge anyone reading this to explain to me the reasons why Franken and not Jack WITHOUT using the dreaded word: electable.”
While I agree with Al on the issues (his healthcare plan, his views on higher education, his commitment to equal rights) maybe the most important reason I support Al has to do with who he is. And while some of that touches on the dreaded “e” word (though I disagree that it is dreaded) the real reason why I support Al has to do with the person that he is. Al is smart, Al cares about the people of Minnesota and Al has the ability to communicate with people who do not always agree with him. I come from a conservative part of the state, and while I disagree with most all of my neighbors, I respect them. I want a progressive senator that can communicate with those who are “not so progressive.” I want a progressive senator that can disagree with my neighbors but still gain their respect. Congressman Minge did that when he represented the Second CD, and Wellstone did that when he was in the senate. I like Jack, and I think Jack has good ideas, but I don’t think he can be that senator.
Jack supporters, feel free to disagree. However, don’t belittle Franken supporters by claiming that we have come to our decisions based on fame or pure electability. I did not and do not take my decision to actively support a candidate lightly. Looking at the issues and the type of senator that I want, I decided Al was the candidate for me. The fact that he is, in my view and on paper, the most electable candidate is just a great plus.
I don’t think you are going to change Mary’s mind. And for JNP to win the nomination, he is going to have to convince a lot of people just like Mary to switch.
“Now might be a good time to groom Jack Nelson Pallmeyer for a run at Pawlenty. That is a race and job he could really change the world with… bring this state back from Republican excesses and prove the progressive message matters.”
His message is not progessive - it’s a blend of isolationist/socialism
If JNP were to become Governor and get “his agenda” enacted it would cause mass exodus to other states of both businesses and the wealthy.
“Keep talking if you like while people who participate, decide who the next DFL endorsed senate candidate will be.”
I AM a delegate to my upcoming county convention, and I plan to try to become a state delegate for Al.
“I challenge anyone reading this to explain to me the reasons why Franken and not Jack WITHOUT using the dreaded word: electable.”
I want Coleman out of office.
What do I win?
Andres Larson, I post and I vote and I’m a delegate to my Senate District… you got a problem with that? Plus I know who can beat Coleman and how Franken will do it… with smarts.
I am a state convention delegate and I have been persuaded. Way back last summer Al Franken’s campaign let me know I was unwelcome as a volunteer, and that persuaded me to not support Al. Mike and Jack are better on the issues anyway, so with Mike out of the race, with no persuasion required, I’m supporting Jack!
Dyna,
Please enlighten us as to what the Franken campaign did that makes you so angry with them.
It could also be that they have characters like Joe Bodell who become as MN Publius has described “outraged” every so often and tearing down, instead of building bridges and building up.
I slept through the Franken on Letterman appearance.
Does anyone have a YouTube link?