SurveyUSA has a new poll on the Presidential race in Minnesota (+/- 4.3%):
Obama - 46%
McCain - 47%
Clinton - 49%
McCain 46%
Now, this poll was taken over the weekend (3/14-3/16) so it corresponds to the worst of the Wright controversy. It started after the sermons received massive play on Friday and concluded on Sunday, or two days before Obama’s speech. Therefore, this poll represents the floor of Obama’s support in Minnesota. Given that, I think this is excellent news. That Obama would keep the race tied in an overwhelmingly white state in the aftermath of the Wright controversy says much about his ability to weather this storm.
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Gosh, it truly shocks me how stupid you guys are at political analysis.
Things have gotten worse — not better — for Obama since his speech. The speech (loved by the media elite but not by regular folks) continued the story into this week. People pay much more attention to the news during the week than they do on the weekend.
I bet you a poll done today would show Obama worse off. Look at some of the national polls since his speech for proof.
Also, if it’s this close in Minnesota, Obama is getting crushed in states that are much tougher for Democrats — states he’ll need to win to win the presidency.
You poor Democrats. The stars are all aligned for you and you’re still going to lose :)
Zack: What you are failing to acknowledge (maybe by design) is that Obama’s polling in Minnesota has gone down nine points since a poll from Survey USA was released on February 18, 2008. Obama’s numbers starting falling well before video surfaced of his racist spiritual advisor.
Clinton is going to steal the nomination from Obama. I can’t wait to see the Publius reaction when this happens.
Hillary will do ANYTHING to win. She’ll destroy Obama and McCain on her way to the presidency.
Y’all must be so proud!
I could have written the headline before he even gave his speech:
“Obama supporters and media declare speech was one for the ages”
No matter what came out of his mouth, the die-hards were going to say it was great.
hillary…hillary…hillary….
She’s going to win the popular vote before the convention and declare that the people have spoken. Obama. toast.
So, the results show that Obama ties McCain in Minnesota rather than Hillary beats McCain in Minnesota or everyone tied - within margin of error….let the general election begin?
Too much bias.
As usual, Hillary may steal it and it work for the Clintons but, the party will be broken.
I say we mend this at the state convention. Those who pushed for Hillary to remain in this need the Siefert treatment.
Marc,
Wrong party. That’s the GOP. This party is supposedly trying to choose a candidate by a given set of rules.
Obama will win the nomination, and the election.
If clinton somehow wins the nomination, we end up with McCain.
lojasmo,
Actually the opposite. If it’s Obama, we’ll have McCain.
hillary means hillary
obama means mccain
Obviously, neither Democrat has a change in hell because our mighty hate machine will destroy anyone who has a different opinion than us.
We will use hatred our our advantage, every time.
You moonbats aren’t smart enough to defeat us. We Republicans ALONE are the reason America is stronger than it ever has been in our Nations history,
Everyone knows that.
Mark my words folks. I called it in Kerry V. Dean in June of 2003.
I say now.
Obama=win
Clinton=loss
More certainly nationally.
Probably in Minnesota.
re: Poll results. Nothing wrong with calling a glass half full instead of half empty, except when the glass your talking about is mostly empty….
Obama started tanking weeks ago. His rock star status is defusing and by the way, most of our Grandmothers are not typical white people..
“This party is supposedly trying to choose a candidate by a given set of rules.”
WMD, you sound Republican by pointing to the rules in how election results are determined. I thought the Democratic Party was the party of “let every vote count”? Why isn’t this true for those who voted in Florida or Michigan primaries?
“Why isn’t this true for those who voted in Florida or Michigan primaries?”
Tis not anarchy, friend. Florida and Michigan knew full well the reprocussions of breaking the rules.
Rasmussen now has Obama up by 4 AND Clinton down by 1.
Looks like the pastor flap turned out to be nothing more than nothing, or obama’s speech helped quite a bit.
You all are neglecting one important fact:
Minnesotans preferred Romney over McCain.
So the GOP runner up is running neck and neck with the best that the Dems have to offer. That is good news for McCain.
No Damn way I am voting for Obama. NO FRIGGIN WAY.
I’d say that the Democrats have two candidates that sections of the populations will not vote for. There are those that will not vote for Hillary, and those that will not vote for Obama. Nothing can change that.
Lets look at the numbers though. Let’s look at Wisconsin, a state not known for having a great many African-Americans, were Obama won white men, union members, and split the female vote. Or lets look at Virginia where he did nearly as well among all demographics. The man is more than ‘just a black candidate.’
To be blunt, Hillary has won some big states. And with the exception of Ohio, they are the ones that my friend’s cat would win in the general, if there was a (D) next to its name. Whereas Obama carried, in some cases solidly, the swing states of the upper Midwest, Missouri, and the potential pick up opportunities of Virginia and Colorado.
Now yes, Clinton won Texas. But look at how she won it. Now if I’m a recent citizen, Hispanic voter, who do I vote for in the general election? John McCain, who stuck by a fair immigration plan when everyone said it would doom his chances, or Senator Blows-with-the-Wind? You can have McCain’s conviction - or Clinton, when the polls say its alright for her.
You want the really funny thing about Texas? You want a tangible sign of Clinton’s persistent, Franken-grade negatives? Half the white men in Texas voted for a black man instead of a white woman. Think of just how hated Clinton has to be, by enough of the electorate, for that to happen. I mean, the white vote split fairly evenly in South Carolina. This says some damning things about Clinton’s negatives. Meanwhile, Obama is bringing in the independents.
Two weeks ago, there were people who were sure he was a Muslim. Last week, it was Reverend Wright. This week, its ‘typical white person’. Next week, I’m sure people will be saying he’s a Muslim again! I know there are people who’ll never vote for Obama, ones who’ll never vote for Clinton, and one’s who’ll never vote for McCain.
But Clinton, to win the general, will have to appeal to groups that McCain has greater appeal. She will have to do so with a major Democratic voting block sitting on its hands. Since she would need a super-delegate coronation, she will have to do so with a lot of people who have been energized over the last few years not turning out in as high numbers.
In other words, she’d have to clean up among moderates and independents. So in the fight for moderates and independent, we have two sides. On one side would be her carefully constructed illusion of First Lady being more than a functionary, the Rose law firm being more than a comfy gig, and her Senate record as anything but going with the latest poll. On the other side is John McCain, who actually has served his country for the last four decades, who quite often sticks to his guns when it seemed like it would doom his chances of the nomination, and comes off as honest to boot.
Obama may not be perfect, but I like his chances, with a larger, energized Democratic base and an appeal to moderates who have had enough of the gridlock and bickering. The states he’s won, and the margins he’s won them by seem to back me up.
Let me get this straight.
The 46% is a floor of Minnesota support?
So the fact that Hillary recently started running an ad that said who do you want to get a 3 a.m. phonecall and Obama loose big to Mccain makes no difference. Keep in mind for the general election John Mccain who is criticized in part because he’s being too nice to the Democrats won’t let this dog lie!
You assume the public is fully vetted on the issue and it can’t move the voters anymore away from Obama. A reporter went to a couple of Obama rallies after the speech and asked people what do you think of the Wright situation and people were going Huh? A lot of the public doesn’t know which usually means when they start fully focusing come October that’s when you have the trouble.
At least one person on this post seems to think that Obama has overcome it because he gets whites and other groups to vote for him. Keep in mind when this race started last year there was a candidate in the Democrat field named ABC (ANYBODY BUT CLINTON)so being a possible racist and having a double standard won’t matter to the ABC voter now, but come November assuming Obama and Mccain are the candidates that ABC will be deciding now that I don’t have Clinton who do I vote for. That’s where the Wright stuff matter.
And since the speech we heard about how he was calling for the firing of talk show host Don Imus because he told the bad joke. so even though Imus apologized Obama supported him being fired and said he wouldn’t have anybody on his staff that will do stuff like that. Obviously he forgot Mr. Wright.
I think 46% might be Obama’s ceiling not his floor. And if you look at the poll from the last one Mccain gained the same percent that Obama and undecides dropped! It’s clear that the electorate is moving to Mccain in Minnesota not to mention the nation guys!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
I think its a heck of a stretch to call him a possible racist, a heck of a stretch. Or have none of us ever heard someone say something racist or stupid and not said anything? Maybe an older family member who grew up in a different time? Are we all possible racists because we didn’t issue a statement denying this person? McCain hasn’t disavowed Hagee, who has said even worse things than Wright, most notably about Catholics and the Church.
I think its pretty apparent that Wright doesn’t stand for Obama, just as it is clear that Hagee doesn’t stand for McCain. The fact that it is a black candidate with a crazy black preacher makes it new and newsworthy, but let’s be realistic: there have been a number of white candidates with crazy white preachers, and some of them ended up President.
Either Obama is the most clever evil genius in politics, and has been lying through his teeth, or he’s on the level. Wright was the pastor who brought him to Jesus.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/What_Obama_heard.html#comments
The link where I found the story. The gist? Obama isn’t going to the safe church, politically. He’s going to the one where the pastor brought him to Christ. I challenge you all to sit down with your own pastors, and see if you agree with them on every, single, thing.
Oh, and before you GOPers start - you all got tons of money from preachers like Falwell, Robinson and the rest, who’ve said far, far worse things about 9/11. I got family in New York, and I don’t like hearing how they had it coming because they treated gay people like human beings and refuse to keep women in the kitchen. But y’ll stick by them - with conversion stories not half as moving. Or sincere.
In other words, let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
I’m sorry, but he demanded Clinton do something about Geraldine F because she made a comment that has to be said is accurate. A first term Senator is suddenly a presidential candidate. He demands Don Immaus get fired for telling a bad joke. A “Uniter” which is what he claims he is would’ve said the man said he was sorry so lets stop there. A “Uniter” would’ve defended his qualifactions were like instead of attacking Geraldine F and demanding her being fired. And at the same time not viewing Mr. Wright as a problem. Furthermore on the radio I heard today that Wright and Obama were talking about how to handle this problem as early as April 2007. Excuse me! You know the problem might be coming, but isn’t ready.
Okay you are trying to fight back using preachers who are known for supporting Republicans, but part of the problem with this argument is that in 2000 John McCain lost the Republican race in part because he was insulting the religious right and annoying them. In effect he had already taken distance from the religious right. In 2007 and 2008 one of his strategies to try to show the religious right that it’s okay to vote for him he went and courted religious right leaders to endorse him. He wasn’t listening to their directions he was trying to get them to lead people to him.
And one part you miss in this is if McCain went to this church would’ve he tolerated behavior like this for 20 years? Obama must have saw or been told about the insults to Israel by the position Wright took on Palenstines. Obama must have saw or heard the insulting language. You know a person who used to be a member of this church was Opraha Winfrey. Now why would she leave this church? Because she saw that if it looked like she supported these views it will hurt her career. It should alarm any Democrat that America’s most popular talk show host had better political instict on this issue than the candidate the Democrats want to give a vote to be the next President of the United States.
Furthermore, I was trying to point out where the logic of the writer of this post was mistaken. Personally I won’t vote for Obama because he is bad on national security. I won’t vote for Obama because if he doesn’t think John Roberts is a good judge for the United States Supreme what is his idea of a good judge. But for a lot of people the issue of Wright will strip away strengths he had. One reason why he was beating Hillary so easily is because he was preveived to be standing for the things that Democrats like with no negatives. He certainly has some major negatives now. In particular thanks to Hillary Clinton highlighting it an issue John McCain will easily defeat Obama on come the general election.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Walter — thank god the majority of Americans DO NOT think or process thought like you do…the national security rant won’t work this time. No more war mongers for prez, don’t ya get it yet??? McCain didn’t win here in the GOP primary, Romney did (and where is he now)? Obama will be our next president — your little community will vote for McCain, and that will be that. You want issues like the Wright Pastor to take down a dem candidate, but it won’t work. Times, they are a changin’…come along for the ride!
Come Senators, congressman, please heed the call,
Don’t stand in the doorway, don’t block up the hall,
For he who gets hurt will be he who has stalled.
There’s a battle outside and it’s ragin’.
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls,
For the times they are a changin’…
Bob Dylan
Republican friends,
Regarding the 2008 elections, “Wish in one hand and poop in the other and see which fills up first.” You are a footnote in history.
Best wishes, Truth
“Times, they are a changin’…come along for the ride!”
Ruthie - based on Obama’s promises, I’ll be paying dearly for the ride for many years to come. Does that count?