Senate Districts holding conventions this weekend:
SD 33 - Shorewood/Excelsior/Wayzata/Orono/Medina - 16 delegates
SD 40 - Bloomington - 9 delegates
SD 41 - Edina/Bloomington - 19 delegates
SD 44 - Hopkins - 1 delegate
SD 45 - Plymouth - 2 delegates
SD 49 - Coon Rapids - 6 delegates
Predictions? Analysis? Thoughts?
Wow, first one, huh?
41 and 33 are the big prizes, obviously, but 33 is where the really big action will be — 41 is Jim Hovland’s best chance to grab a few delegates, and has a higher likelihood of being a three-way split, instead of the heads-up race that’s likely to persist in 33. 40 and 49 will be a matter of coordination between several moving parts for the Madia and Bonoff campaigns. Even an even 50-50 split with Bonoff is a great day for Madia at this point — obviously anything better than that is gravy and puts him that much closer to 96 delegates on April 12th.
I stand corrected - I’d said the SD44 delegates to CD3 were about 3.
I was only off by 300 percent.
I certainly hope that Madia can continue what’s been an amazing run so far, but don’t know enough to make any predictions. I’m not really sure what Hovland is doing still in the race at this point, I’m not saying he’s not a good candidate, but when you go 0 for 86.5 it sure doesn’t look like you’re going to win anything. I think his presence, if he can win any delegates, will help Madia though because at this point any delegate that doesn’t go to Bonoff is a win for him.
On a different random note: does anyone know how the GOP race in the 1st is going? I haven’t seen anything about their conventions, if they’re even started already.
All Bonoff wants to do is to drag this to a primary. All Hovland wants to do is to prevent that. Good for u Jim. You have gained the respect and support of more DFLers by your loss than any victory could have gotten you.
I think Bonoff has reason to feel Ok about this weekend. She has alot of support in 33, and I could see Hovland and Madia splitting the “anti-Bonoff” delegates in 41.
I see 45 and 49 going heavily Madia.
I disagree with the poster rm above. There is no reason anyone (other than an opponent) would advise Bonoff to drop out now.
I’m not saying Bonoff will be in the lead after this weekend, but it should surely be enough to keep her solidly in the race.
Unless Bonoff can walk away from the contests this weekend with 60% of the delegates, I think she’s done for. Make up whatever fantasies you want about how she’ll ultimately be the nominee despite her inability to get the delegates in the senate district caucuses. If someone with the name, the profile, the endorsements, the funds and the staff can’t get farther than where she is now and can’t clinch it this Saturday, I don’t see a justification for her campaign to continue. Please educate me if you think otherwise, I’m dying to know the thinking on that one.
I just think Bonoff has every right to stay in the race even with Madia in the lead, just as Madia and Hovland had every right to enter the race when Bonoff had the buzz.
This isn’t exactly what McCain - Huckabee was when the end was inevitable. The only person who requires a miracle to win is Hovland.
Blogger - I’m not disagreeing with her RIGHT to stay in the race, I’m asking what is her JUSTIFICATION for doing so? Does she think she’ll persuade the delegates to support her at the next level? Does she plan to change her message / style to appeal to more folks? Is she hoping that with a Hillary surge that she’ll get the benefit of folks electing to go with the establishment candidate? Because right now, I think she’s getting a pretty clear message from delegates that they aren’t buying what she’s selling - just look at the delegate totals from her home district!
She is down by 8.5 delegates with 53 delegates remaining, in a race where you need 60% — that is just not a scenario when one candidate’s campaign pressures another candidate out of the race!
Of course Bonoff has every right to stay in the race to the bitter end, it just isn’t smart for her to do so.
I wonder how much money she actually has to burn? She has some very expensive paid staff, lots of very expensive signs, and tons of lit that is all ending up in the recycle bin becuase her staff doesn’t clean up after themselves.
I am becoming concerned that she is getting to the point of hurting her state senate seat. She is a good senator and I want her to stay there and continue to work for the good of Minnesota.
Blogger - no one is pressuring Bonoff to drop out. I don’t care if she stays in until the bitter end, I just wonder what she’s thinking if she does so. I think this Saturday is critical for her.
I think it is important to examine ELECTED delegates. Superdelegate votes, currently, do not reflect the overwhelming popular vote for Ashwin Madia.
She is getting beat very badly in the ELECTED delegate count. What almost by 2-1. And there are no more UNELECTED delegates to pad her low scores.
Even if next weekends score is even slightly better than this, can she go to the convention and state; “Elect me , I won 1/2 the votes of Captain Madia”
As posted by Gavin
HMS Bonoff
http://www.bbcarchive.org.uk/pmwiki/pub/localphotos/sinking_ship.jpg
The reality is unless Bonoff is being told behind closed doors that the super delegates are abandoning ship she’s right in the race regardless of being blown out of the water last weekend.
Madia needs to bring it again this weekend and win. Especially SD-33. If she can’t hold the lake Minnetonka/Medina/Wayzata crowd, she’ll have a hard time convincing herself that she’s viable.
Madia will win SD33 big. He’s got the SD33 chair, and he won SD 32. I think he’ll win SD33 almost as big as he won SD 32. He also will win almost all the delegates in SD 45 and 49. SD 41 will be a split.
So, I think Madia will be up another 10 or so delegates after this weekend. It just proves that Sanguin is either a liar, or a joke because he predicted that Bonoff would be up after this weekend. If his prediction turns out to be false — and there is almost no way Bonoff picks up delegates — then it’s certainly time for her to drop. I think the party will push her to do so.
Madia should do well in SD40. The SD40 chair was an early Madia supporter and the local buzz is that Madia is also doing well among the 40B delegates.
I’d predict that Madia nets at least 3 delegates in SD40 alone.
Ken Sanguin is no liar and no joke. He is simply doing the job he was paid to do, and that is put out as much positive spin as he can about his boss, Terri Bonoff.
Even though I am a Madia supporter, I do like Ken Sanguin and I understand what he is doing and why. I have met and spoken to all of the paid campaign operatives from all 3 campaigns, and they are ALL good people and very committed to our party and it’s principles.
Ashwin Madia had a great day last Saturday, and I think he will have another great day next Saturday. How about if we allow Terri Bonoff (and for that matter, Jim Hovland) the respect of a graceful exit afterwards?
We are all Democrats, and we all have to come together for the general election in the fall.
Ken Sanguin is not a liar or a joke. He is a top rate organizer and one of the best operatives in Minnesota. Anyone who worked for Amy Klobuchar (or the coordinated campaign for that matter) knows this is true.
I guess my point is that this is the way the system is set up, and both candidates are succeeding within that system. This is nothing new – it was setup this way before and is setup this way now.
Bonoff spent time, money, and energy courting superdelegate votes because she knew that would be an area of strength. She secured those votes.
Madia spent time, money, and energy courting elected delegate votes because he knew he would be strong in that area. He secured those votes.
This is politics and how the system works. If you think about it, each candidate’s gameplan is working to varying extents. Why not let this go to convention? Or primary?
Zack,
A few days ago you said that Bonoff was feeling “very good” about this coming Saturday, and that you would report in a few days whether that was still the case. Is it so? I don’t see how they can feel good when 40, 45, 49 are all heavily Madia. Even 33 seems to be that way.
I’d appreciate your candid thoughts. I’m just curious what the Bonoff folks are thinking that gives them any confidence. If Ken is that good — and I have no reason to doubt it — they must have some strategy.
“are all heavily Madia, Even 33 seems to be that way.”
I’m in 33, and I don’t get that sense at all. Based the people I speak to regularly who will be attending on Saturday, Bonoff has very strong support here.
Yeah, but even if she picks up delegates in 33 — at most 3 or 4 delegates (worst case scenario for Madia). Madia is going to pick up 45, 49, and as Gremlin put it 3 in 40. That means even if Terri Bonoff picks up delegates in 41, she still will be significantly down for the day.
She needs to make up 8 delegates to even tie this thing. That’s what Sanguin predicted. But, based on simple math, I don’t see how she doesn’t keep from LOSING delegates next Saturday. That seems the most likely outcome.
You need to check your sources again. I talk to people in 33 constantly, and I’m not hearing anywhere that Madia can count on these delegates.
I’m hearing alot of Bonoff support and quite a few undecideds.
Don’t know this Ken guy you talk about, but let’s face it - he has a very tough job. Anyone who has seen Terri talk in public knows that the very best campaign operatives can’t turn her into an articulate, polished campaigner. She stumbles, she makes stuff up, she talks off message, she mumbles and smiles so much you wish she had SOME content. I was at the debate in Eden Prairie where she told the crowd that she didn’t trust her own instincts. Frankly, Terri had this race to lose and she’s doing a heck of a job at it.
Wellstonian,
I concede that Madia may not be that strong is 33. But, check your sources on 40, 45, and 49. He’s very strong there. If he wins there decisively, which he will, then even if Bonoff pulls off 33 and 41, he’s still going to win delegates next weekend.
Last week, there were all these folks saying Bonoff would win delegates this coming weekend. I just don’t see how that is mathematically possible.
Zack, Wellstonian, or anyone else want to explain how Bonoff will do that. Granted she may be strong in 33, but where else??
I don’t claim to be a handicapper of this race, so no, I can’t answer your question. All I know is what is happening in 33. After doing more research, I myself am leaning Bonoff. I like her legislative accomplishments and background as a mother and in the private sector. And I have to admit, I’d love to have a CongressWOMAN from the 3rd, although that isn’t the primary reason I would support her.
Jessethemind: Check http://www.bluestemprairie.com for news in CD1 and good links to published news articles on challengers to Congressman Tim Walz.
Ken maybe a really smart guy. However its easy to figure out who are the Bonoff campaign “avatars” on this site. Various “avatars” coming in as mildly interested observors and then claiming to be impressed by all of Bonoff’s accomplishments.
Their campaign has tried about say 6 of these so far. Good luck.
Some of us don’t hang around DFL operatives all our lives. But can see a scam a mile away.
Thanks for your honesty Wellstonian about not being a handicapper.
Any other Bonoff supporter who sees any possibility of her picking up more delegates next weekend. Last week, there was Zack, Sean, WF all predicting a Bonoff win this coming Saturday. Now, there is deafening silence.
I can only assume they’ve realized what rm did months ago, and I weeks ago, this race is over. Madia has won.
Wellstonian,
Did you know that Terri co-authored the recent Transportation bill and had a meaningful impact negotiating to get it passed. That is courageous legislation successfully passed into law. It’s also a great example of bi-partisan cooperation and legislative effectiveness.
No one here has mentioned that.
Do you also know that Terri is the sole author in the senate of the Fetal Remains Legislation? It’s also bi-partisan. She carried it in the senate last year while Laura Brod of MCCL carried it in the house.
Several stories have been told as to why this bill will not be coming out of committee this year after the Mankato Free Press has quotes from Terri saying she is “proud” to be carrying this legislation from last year. Now she says she will let it die. Still, it’s the slippery slope to personhood that is being brought forward in Colorado and Ohio.
Yippee on the Transportation Bill….
Let’s not just bandy about one piece of legislation. Let’s talk about that legislative record.
Here is a simple way to predict Terri Bonoffs performance. The further the precinct away is from the Minnetonka Country Club, the better Madia does. Interpolate last weeks results on this and see for yourself.
Saltzman, Carlson and Dibble were also co-authors on the Senate Transportation Bill authored by Senator Steve Murphy.
The bi-partisan cooperation and courageous legislation was two Republicans voting for it with the DFL senators.
Did Senator Bonoff bring Senators Dill and Frederickson (both from western and southwestern MN) over to the Notwithstanding Side?
What does co-authored mean? It means you ask the Senate Transportaion Chair ? to put your name on it. So the DFL political cronies see who is in a suburban district that needs some exposure and put their name on it.
I agree Bonoff is a great State Senator! It’s where she belongs! Does anyone in the Bonoff camp have the guts to predict how she will win delegates this coming Saturday. Not a single voice predicting that anymore. Have the Bonoff folks given up on the CD race? Are you touting her Senatorial accomplishments to make sure she holds that seat after her disastrous campaign?
Greg Craig on Hillary Clinton
“When your entire campaign is based upon a claim of experience, it is important that you have evidence to support that claim. Hillary Clinton’s argument that she has passed “the Commander- in-Chief test” is simply not supported by her record.
”
How funny, but true, if you replace Hillary Clinton for Terri Bonoff, and Commander-in-Chief for “executive business experience”
“When your entire campaign is based upon a claim of experience, it is important that you have evidence to support that claim. Terri Bonoff’s argument that she has passed “the executive business experience test” is simply not supported by her record.
”
Woah…let’s get real…I don’t recall ever predicting Terri Bonoff would win anything. I don’t appreciate you putting words in my mouth or labeling me a Bonoff supporter. I am neutral in this race. But let me point out that your math is wrong. 41 and 33 together have 35 delegates. 40, 45 and 49 have 17 delegates. If Bonoff scores big in 33 and 41 (and I am not saying she will), Madia would be hard pressed to make up for it in SD’s that have half the delegates.
Also, Sean volunteered for Madia last week, so you mislabeled him as well.
A bit more on the Bonoff/Clinton-Madia/Obama comparison: http://minipundit.typepad.com/minipundit/2008/03/a-tale-of-two-r.html
Zack, sorry to mislabel you. I thought you had said you had heard Bonoff was feeling “very good” about this Saturday. Sean had said Bonoff would win delegates, and not lose them.
You said you would check with your sources and report back. I am just curious whether you have heard any optimism still on Bonoff’s behalf for Saturday, or whether they are resigned to defeat. They’ve been awfully quiet this week.
Also, I’ve heard her fundraising has been very disappointing for this quarter.
DemGirl, that article is spot on. The “DFL elected cronies” are unable to figure out how to fight back. Ashwin Madia has taken them to the cleaners.
A good portion of the credit goes to the authors of this blog. As much as they may cringe at my posts about the “DFL crony system” they have not censored me. Hats off to them. They have also allowed me to question Bonoffs credibility regarding her “executive business experience”
As much as people may cringe at my trolling, they can see where i am coming from. Today my “crony” allegations are being raised by Gavin on his blog also. I also beleive they can see validity in my questions regarding her “executive business experience”
Yes it is a crony system that in the “diversity DFL” has not allowed any significant minority participation, except of course when they round up the coloreds for the annual calendar”, and now they don’t know to deal with it.
Thanks Dem Girl. Ashwin is our new Barack! He will be in Congress for a term or two, then Senator, then who knows. I know from people close to him, he’s thinking of a national career. We should jump on his bandwagon now. He could be the next Obama, and why stand in the way of history. Bonoff at best is a back bencher. Madia knows he’s got god given talent. It’s time to step aside for Madia’s inevitable ascent!
What about this bill do you have a problem with? Don’t parents have the right to control how they bury their children?
Bill Name: SF1739
“Grieving Parents Act”; requiring hospitals, clinics and medical facilities
having custody of a fetus following a miscarriage to provide written
notification to the mother of the right to arrange for the burial or cremation
of the fetus; providing for election of disposition; specifying certain duties
of the commissioner of health relating to notification and election forms
(je)
lets get real…..that type of over the top hype is what turns people off. I like Ash and think he’ll make a great congressman but tone it down. Try catching a glimpse of reality occasionally, okay?
tonka-dflr
It’s the pushing back of personhood that is the problem with that legislation. Obviously Terri also disagrees with it now as she has decided to allow it to die in committee and has said she will never bring it to the floor.
Parents already have the right to bury their children. Parents also already have the rights to bury the remains from a miscarriage. There is no logical reason for this other than the definition of personhood. This is about the definition between “fetus” and “children”. Your question is exactly why the legislation is being pushed by the MCCL….if they can get into law on the books that fetal remains from a miscarriage is a person, they have pushed back abortion rights. It is the issue in the legislation being argued in Colorado and Ohio.
I thought you had said you had heard Bonoff was feeling “very good” about this Saturday.
— Lets Get Real
He did say that, but that does not equal what you said, which was.
Last week, there was Zack, Sean, WF all predicting a Bonoff win this coming Saturday
Sean had said Bonoff would win delegates, and not lose them.
I said this as well. I said it, because very technically she will not “lose” delegates this week, she will win delegates. I didn’t say she’d win all the delegates or that she would win a majority of the delegates — just that she would win delegates.
Mind you this came in relation to you and a few others saying some pretty outrageous things about the election being over, it being impossible for Senator Bonoff to win, etc.
Sean
Well, we’ll see what happens. I predict Ash will slaughter Bonoff on Saturday. If I’m wrong, I’m willing to eat crow. But, I don’t see anyone on Bonoff’s side having the guts to predict a win on Saturday.
I think it’s inevitable he’ll be the nominee. He’s going to cruise to the general in this environment. And he will do so WITHOUT the party establishment — just like Barack. Once he wins without the DFL establishment support, the party will fear him, and he can write his ticket.
Bonoff should do the graceful thing and exit. She’s going to get humiliated at the convention.
Anyone who doesn’t think this race is over is the person who is not in touch with reality. Talk to Ash’s campaign. They know they have this thing won, and are already focused on raising for the general.
Ashwin is a national star. Bonoff is the most overhyped candidate in history. This thing is over, baby! The anti-establishment beat the establishment, and we should have the right to gloat for a while. We’ve got the star!
so, sean which is it. do you believe she will win the majority of delegates or not. i predict ash wins by at least 10 delegates. i am willing to go on the record with a prediction, and will stand by that sunday. why don’t you make a prediction. let the numbers dictate, then, who is in touch with reality and who is saying outrageous things.
RM, I know you are trolling and trying to get a reaction. But, it is very clear that you have no idea what you are talking about. CD3 endorsed Deborah Watts in 2004 to run for congress. Was that for the calendar? Do you know that she’s black? Your comments are offensive and ridiculous. It’s one thing to troll, it’s another to type nonsense for the sheer sake of offending people. Our party (which I doubt that you have anything to do with) is diverse and inclusive.
West Metro Dem,
There another side to it that prevents an institution from taking the control of the remains and using it for research or selling the stem cell lines. I completely agree that we don’t want the establishment of personhood to anything but a person out of the womb that is breathing and showing vital signs. Ultimately, it is the parents that should have the choice, not the state or a health care institution.
Thanks Dem Girl. Ashwin is our new Barack! He will be in Congress for a term or two, then Senator, then who knows. I know from people close to him, he’s thinking of a national career. We should jump on his bandwagon now. He could be the next Obama, and why stand in the way of history. Bonoff at best is a back bencher. Madia knows he’s got god given talent. It’s time to step aside for Madia’s inevitable ascent!”
This along with your arrogant and patronizing about Madia’s intellect and Bonoff’s supposed (the only supposed btw in this case is in your mind) lack thereof, (ie: He has a degree from NYU law school, and she doesn’t have that kind of education.) gives me a good reason to doubt your connection to reality, or your ability to comment on this race in either a thoughtful or sensible way.
Along with the news that political blogs are a largely insular community(1), and that the folks who read this are most likely already as committed as you are, I would like to take a second to remind our posters, espescially our anonymous posters to ask themselves this question: “If I said this in person to someone, would it make the campaigns and the candidates I’m supporting look better? Would it help them, or would it make them look bad?”
If you have to pause when answering this question you should probably think twice about posting whatever it is you were going to post.
Sean
(1)http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080310/pl_nm/usa_politics_blogs_dc
So, is there anyone willing to predict victory for Bonoff? Anyone willing to stand up for her? The amazing thing is the passion of us Madia supporters. We’re young, we’re bold, we’re progressive, we don’t care about the corrupt, cronyism of the DFL party, and we’re going to take it down. We’re winning. That’s the bottom line. And you may think we’re cocky, arrogant, or out of touch with reality, you may think that we’re delusional to think Ash is our Barack, but that’s how we feel. And you can’t stop us. So, either be bold enough to stand up for Bonoff, or acknowledge reality and join the Ash Madia bandwagon. We’re moving, and you’re either on board or not.
oh, u mean they found diversity, when they needed some patsy to run against Jim Ramstad. Awwwwww how nice of the country club set.
Now did u read my post. It said “significant minority participation”. So all u could find was this ?
Sean, I respect your point of view. But, why not be bold enough to make a prediction about Saturday. I’ve put my money where my mouth is — Ash by 10. Do you have the courage to make a prediction?
You don’t have to boast or exhibit incredible amounts of hubris to support a candidate. Here it is: I support Terri, I think she’s the best candidate, and I think she is going to win. I predict it. It is predicted.
tonka-dfler,
Parents already have that right. This legislation was being pushed for alternative reasons by MCCL that did nothing to change what was already available.
tonka,
so you are predicting that terri beats ash in elected delegates saturday, correct? I predict Ash wins by 10. How much are you predicting she wins by?
Finally, there is someone who has the courage to stand up for the sinking Titanic. I admire your guts.
I’m beginning to think that “Lets get real” is a Bonoff troll writing over-the-top pro-Madia posts to annoy readers so much that they swing to Bonoff.
Lets get real: the Madia camp does not “know they have this thing won.” They are working hard for every supporter at this Saturday’s SD conventions.
You say that “he’s thinking of a national career.” That’s true- as the Congressman for the 3rd District representing us in DC on the issues that matter to him and us.
If you’re actually a Madia supporter, tone it down- you’re making Madia supporters look bad.
I’m always boggled by someone who is posting anonymously challenging my courage. Whatevs.
Okay, so lets analyze your comments, you wrote back on the CD3 Results thread:
“But, next week’s conventions do you think she wins delegates or loses delegates?”
I responded:
“She’ll win delegates at next weeks conventions (she won’t ‘lose’ delegates),”
Which by the way is correct.
And then you’re somehow going to come on here and talk some gibberish about how we were all projecting a Bonoff victory?
Are you deluded?
Sean
sean - “If I said this in person to someone, would it make the campaigns and the candidates I’m supporting look better? Would it help them, or would it make them look bad?”
Thats exactly why i troll. In the politically correct world of the diversity DFL, it is only good to talk about “diversity” and “acceptance” as some high-minded concepts. However when it comes time to practice it, its “screw them”.
Since I am not a part of any campaign, I can state exactly whats going on. An insular and crony club of DFL legislatures try to promote a fellow crony.
Now can the Madia campaign state it. Absolutely not. Now i challenge any one here to tell me that they are not thinking in the same fashion.
I am a true Madia supporter. RM and I are the only ones on this board who have the guts to go to bat for the phenom Madia is and how revolutionary his campaign is. I am insulted MinnVoter that you would accuse me of being for Bonoff. After all I’ve done in emailing friends in the district for Madia! I am a true believer in him. I am the type of person that Madia is counting on to beat the establishment.
Bonoff and the DFL establishment make me cringe. I know many supporting Madia share that feeling.
So, let’s see how the results pan out on Saturday. I predict Madia by 10. Any Bonoff person want to venture a prediction?
I think I’ve had jabs taken at me on this thread but cannot really tell.
For each of you who are delusional about how monumental your candidate is, there are hundreds of people going to the SD conventions on Saturday who split into four categories:
1. Delusional about their candidate (1%)
2. Heavily committed to their candidate (50%)
3. Leaning but not committed (40%)
4. Game time decision (9%)
For the sake of the 49% who haven’t drunk someone’s Kool-aid, I’d suggest you make your candidates’ cases a bit more rationally.
I’m probably starting to sound committed to a candidate here, but pointing out legislation that someone shepherded through the Senate appeals much more to the rational side of me than an abstract comparison to Senator Obama.
It’s not an abstract comparison to Obama. Obama defied the establishment. So did Madia. Read the article that goes through all the comaprisons.
Wellstonian, I completely disagree with your analysis of the race still being undecided. That is Bonoff propaganda to force a no endorsement. This race is decided. Madia is going to have far more elected delegates going into the convention. The question is will the establishment try to steal the election from him because they are threatened by a young, charismatic person of color who won without their help.
If Bonoff had any ounce of decency in public service, she would recognize Madia for the phenom he is, recognize that she is potentially hurting a future Barack Obama, recognize that he is far more worthy than her to be a Congressman, and would endorse him now and get the party behind him.
Somehow, I don’t think she’ll do that. Oh, well. We’ll win anyway.
My analysis:
This thread will become a magnet for a very small number of anonymous posters, many of whom don’t even live in the district, to hurl horrible, unsubstantiated, and unhelpful attacks at candidates they don’t support.
In spite of the futility of these efforts, and the fact that no candidate in this race wants their supporters to behave so badly, I predict this will continue until the race is over. Even then it may continue.
This makes me very sad. We should be celebrating the fact that we even have a contest in the 3rd. Everyone needs to get over themselves. Seriously.
Come April 13th, we’re all going to be on the same side, one way or another.
It would do everyone here well to remember that.
Thank you, Dan Wienand. I couldn’t agree more!
I agree with you to Dan! But, the facts are the facts. There is not a single Bonoff supporter who can predict a delegate victory on Saturday. Numerous Madia supporters are confident of that. This race is already over. Bonoff suppoters don’t want to acknowledge that because their real motive is to hang on to 40 some percent and push for no endorsement. Any Bonoff supporter who can claim with a a straight face that their candidate will win more delegates next Saturday, and that she has any shot at the endorsement.
“I am a true Madia supporter. RM and I are the only ones on this board who have the guts to go to bat for the phenom Madia is and how revolutionary his campaign is.”
Actually, I (and a few others) have been trolling for Madia as well.. but, we’ve done so with a bit more disiscretion. Madia cannot fall into the same trap that Bonoff (and his supporters) did and start thinking his candidacy is anointed or inevitable. I don’t think they think this.
I also don’t think the Madia camp thinks any less than that Bonoff is a strong candidate, that she has a strong team behind her, and that if he doesn’t spend every minute until the convention going full speed that she couldn’t regain control.
He’s winning because his message resonates with people. Attacking other DFLers simply doesn’t help that process.
I’ve followed Barack Obama
I’ve seen Barack Obama speak
I’ve researched Barack Obama
Mr. Lets Get Real, Ashwin Madia is no Barack Obama.
sorry, couldn’t resist.
Tonka DFLer (and others),
I know Bonoff has put the transportation bill at the top of her speeches, but, what role did she really play? It clearly was partisan, and, I thought it was authored by others. No?
I get the sense she’s just taking credit for the transportation bill simply because she’s in the state senate. Though, correct me if I’m wrong.
I agree that the next strategy for the Bonoff camp is to push very hard for no endorsement and a primary. How would that help our party win in November? I would say that if Madia holds at over 60% of the people’s vote after Saturday’s conventions, then those Super Delegates better be looking hard at what the will of the people really is and vote accordingly.
As for the “Grieving Parents Act”, what horrible legislation! I know for a fact that the very quiet position of Emily’s List is that “she won’t make that mistake ever again”. How do I know that? The Midwest Funding Pac was told that in January. Please notice that other than allowing Bonoff to put a written endorsement on her website and listing her on theirs, they have done no fundraising for her, no advertising for her, offered no volunteers or in any way offered real support.
As for that bill, Bonoff has provided about 6 different excuses for it’s existence, up to and including having her operatives tell people that she was going to withdraw it as soon as this session started (hasn’t happened).
If Terri had simply told the truth — that either she REALLY WANTED TO SUPPORT A BILL BEING PROMOTED BY THE MCCL AS HER NEWSPAPER INTERVIIEW STATED, or that AS A FRESHMAN SENATOR SHE WAS HOODWINKED people would be able to better consider her position and move on.
At any rate, that bill, SF1739 is playing right into the hands of the anti-choice people who are now working to back door us out of Roe v Wade. (research Laura Brod, the house author who convinced Terri to do this) You are fooling yourself if you don’t believe that the next step to burying 20 week old miscarriage remains is to define those remains as children, and all of the sudden a 20 week abortion, regardless of the reason is illegal and immoral.
Every clinic and hospital in this state already tells grieving parents that they may bury the remains if they wish, and there is a great organization that will help the families do just that. To add unneccessary laws to the books is rediculous.
“There is not a single Bonoff supporter who can predict a delegate victory on Saturday”
I am not going to predict a Bonoff win, but, I also am not going to rule it out. Let’s face it, if she keeps it close this weekend (ie, she’s stronger than predicted in districts like 33 or she splits everything) she’s in position to pull it out.
There are a lot of Franken/Madia or Ciresi/Madia delegates out there. If its close, you have to think Madia gets nervous. Are they really Madia supporters or just there for the senate race? Do they even show up to CD3? Could a targeted attack by Bonoff swing them?
This is not over. Madia needs everyone out this weekend. He needs to lock this up. But, thinking its over only ensures it won’t be.
DantheMan, that’s a rhetorical cheap shot. But, you have no basis of saying that Madia is not Obama. Madia is Obama plus. He is Obama with a record of war service.
PlymouthDem, I respect your desire to be objective. But, most of those who caucused for Madia/Franken were very solid Madia supporters. Franken benefitted from it, not Madia. There were also Bonoff/Franken caucuses, and if Franken supporters wanted to they could have gone there. Madia is driving turnout, and Franken has been the beneficiary. And of course the Madia supporters show up to CD3.The question is do Bonoff’s superdelegates show up. I doubt it.
This race is over unless Bonoff steals it. Madia is going to win big in 45 and 49 and win decisively in 40. That will be enough to give him the majority going into the convention. At that point, Sanguin will be totally discredited, having predicted that Bonoff would have more delegates.
Madia supporters need to harass the superdelegates, and tell them we’ll mount primary challenges against them if they defy the will of the people. This is a movement. There is no stopping Madia. We’re going to win the electeds — that’s done. Now, we should turn our attention to making sure any superdelegate knows that they will face the wrath of the Madia machine if they do not support him.
This is a battle. And the Madia forces are fighters and will not let the establishment steal the election that we’ve won.
My point is simple. The caucus season isn’t over until Saturday. Madia’s supporters need to be out in force fighting as hard as they did last weekend. The bigger the victory, the less the campaign needs to sweat come convention time.
No reason to let up now.
“then those Super Delegates better be looking hard at what the will of the people really is and vote accordingly.:
You know it and I know it: the “will of the people” and a party endorsement are two very different things. If you really want the will of the people, let’s see a primary. Let’s see a competitive primary in both parties.
The candidates given to voters in the General, in a caucus / convention environment, have little to do with the will of the people (on either side).
Barack Obama built his reputation in his state senate district as an attorney serving low income people. People observed him on the job and liked what he could do.
He was then able to use that positive track record to land a state senate seat. People observed him on the job and liked what he could do.
He used his state senate experience and party involvement (04 convention) to become a US Senator. People observed him on the job and liked what he could do.
He is using two years as a Senator and his incredible charisma to run for President. And there are questions about his qualifications.
This Madia guy hasn’t lived in or worked in the district he is seeking to represent as an adult. He moved within the district boundaries once this opportunity opened up. The only local view we’ve had of him “on the job” is his time at the U. And oh, by the way, we aren’t supposed to consider that.
Very, very different situations.
I guess perspective is important, isn’t it? Last cycle it was perfectly fine for Wendy Wilde to move into the district AFTER she had the DFL endorsement and she was lauded by Terri and invited to her get together. This time it’s not okay for someone to be raised in a district and move back to his parent’s community where they have lived for years to run for office. You’re right. Much different.
This Madia guy, as you so aptly and respectfully put it, was a little busy attending law school at NYU, joining the US Marines, training at Quantico Marine Corp Base, serving our country in Okinawa and Baghdad. Obviously not worthy of your respect.
You’re putting words in my mouth in a big way. I respect Madia. I respect all who wore a uniform and served our country.
Service to our country should be honored. In my personal opinion as a 3rd CD voter, however, attending law school at NYU and serving our country doesn’t replace the need for your would-be constituents to know what you are all about. And I do not believe that listening to someone on a campaign trail is enough. You can say whatever you want on a campaign trail. I want my congressperson to be someone I’ve been able to observe. I want to know how they tick. And I don’t want to have to form that impression from what their campaign is feeding me.
Lots don’t feel the way I do. But I feel strongly this way, and for me it is a showstopper.
And good lord, I never said I supported Wendy Wilde. Don’t try to link her to my points. And I’m not a Bonoff supporter. I’m probably Paulsen unless Hovland gets to the general.
Your condescension in the wording of your previous post was unnecessary and led to the sarcasm and commentary. While you may not have supported Wendy Wilde, my point is that this time Terri wants everyone to think it is just awful that Ash has not lived here “all of his life” as she has said several times in forums whereas the last cycle it was perfectly fine with her for Wendy to move here after she was endorsed.
I respect your opinion. I don’t happen to agree with it having served in the military, that carries a lot of weight with me.
Amen Dan!
I believe that many of the posters here were just sent over from MDE to annoy people in the 3rd. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michael Brodkorb and Joe Weber aren’t sitting around posing as RM and the others.
Unfortunately, the conversation is next to useless. After 4/13, we won’t all be on the same side because these guys most likely aren’t in the 3rd or Democrats to begin with.
Dan, we will be on the same side because we actually live and participate in the 3rd. I am anonymous here, but we are acquainted in the DFL.
Hmmm….been in the 3rd for 25 years so far. Not moving any time soon.
I respect that. The beauty of an election period is everyone makes personal choices based on what is important to them to arrive at their preferred candidate.
I didn’t mean for my previous post to sound condescending.
And to be clear, many of us arguing this point don’t need someone who has never left Minnesota. Heck, I left Minnesota and came back. Many people I know did.
Madia’s residency issue is troubling with me, though. If Madia loved the 3rd CD area so much, why did he choose to reside in Minneapolis? Thousands of single young professionals who work in Minneapolis choose to get places in EP, Plymouth, or Maple Grove. Why didn’t he? It just all seems so opportunistic. Had this seat not opened up, where do you think he would be living today?
So DTM, are you going to buy all of the stuff about Paulsen that HIS campaign puts out?!
How well do you think he really worked across the aisle?
Is he really a moderate?
Does he really carry the flag for Ramstad?
If all of the above is true, then why didn’t the republican party endorse him last fall? How come your party has tried so hard to get Ramstad to change his mind? How come Erik asked Sd 42 to have a separate endorsing convention for the B side house race after the CD 3 convention and their sd 42 convention? Are the republicans keeping their options open just in case someone better comes along? And did Erik ask for a second local convention so he could keep his day job as long as possible in that event?
Just some thoughts about your guy.
Yes, Ashwin Madia is new to the political scene. Isn’t that appealing?! Yes, he was out of the district for some very good reasons. He is here now, and I think he will be a good legislator. If he works even half as hard in Washington as he has worked here for the last 6 months we will be very well served.
I too like Jim Hovland, in fact he was my first choice. The reason I went for Madia was the amount of dedication and hard work I have seen him put out there, as opposed to a rather disorganized and “where is Jim” campaign. They have both had the same amount of time, and look at the difference! I wish Jim well, and hope he runs again in the future. Perhaps he should take on Goeff Michel in a couple of years. Jim would be a great state senator, and I would probably volunteer on his campaign if he decides to run.
Oh — here is another poster who has lived in the 3rd for 24 years and counting!
And as for Madia living in Minneapolis when he got his job- maybe he was saving gas and money, something I thought all of our environmentaly concious folks would respect. Heck, my family conserves gas, electricity, water and everything! So why is it an issue for Madia to also think about things like that and live where he worked?!
I respect that opinion, Dan. Personally though, it isn’t that troubling for me. I didn’t move here until we had children and feel like I’ve lived here enough to be a “resident” of the community. I would submit that while he did not live here, his family did. During a younger person’s itinerant periods, they live wherever the rent is cheaper, transportation is more convenient etc. I don’t fault people for that. My own children are the same yet if one of them wanted to run for office in this district I would feel they were “residents” and entitled even though they have not been living here for several years while attending college, working etc. I guess it is perspctive.
Fair enough. I just see a guy with a slick message who moved in when an opportunity arose, and I get suspicious.
My personal preference would be to have someone who I’ve observed on-the-job and who has done things in the 3rd that made me earn their respect. Even if they are a little rough around the edges (like Hovland).
Just to prove I’m not strictly partisan, I would have strongly considered backing Andy Lugar or Kelly Doran had they run. Notice Doran has not legislative experience. I don’t get hung up on that.
“So DTM, are you going to buy all of the stuff about Paulsen that HIS campaign puts out?!
How well do you think he really worked across the aisle?
Is he really a moderate?”
We can ask those questions of Paulsen. BECAUSE WE CAN EXAMINE HIS RECORD!!! We can see the track record and draw conclusions from it!!!
Not with Madia. No track record = no questions asked.
Kelly Doran and Andy Luger are definitely on my A list, too. I like Jim Hovland, too, though. He’s run one of the worst campaigns I’ve seen! I wish he had done a better job at it. He’d be in the hunt if he had.
I hope all of them find offices they can run for successfully soon and I’ll work for them.
West Metro -
I like your style. Thanks for making points. Maybe we’ll pull this thread out of the gutter.
It’s just slightly off the rails. I guess I’d err on the side of potential rather of an elected official than the proven track record of two years in the state leg without an ability to match rhetoric to record. Terri talks a great line but I’m not seeing the reality in her appearances.
That being said, I had high hopes for Hovland. My friend was strongly talking him up after their first meeting and I was interested. Unfortunately his campaign never took off and still seems to be in the dumps. He’s got an incredibly nice wife and he’s a very nice man. But….one of the worst campaigns I’ve seen and I’ve seen a few.
tonka-dflr
lets remind people what kind of a troll you are.
First you post a list of talking points from the Bonoff campaign trashing Madia, that u claimed u found on the Web.
I ask u which web site and then you claim u don’t remember.
Then u claim you wrote them yourself.
Next u state you never claimed to have found them on the Web.
And on and on it goes.
At some point you start sounding like….ummmmmmm….Terri Bonoff’s campaign.
Whoops….hard left….into the gutter. Guys….let’s discuss issues and leave the sniping to other places that specialize in it. Okay?
tonka-dfler
you are just pissed that a blogger/troll like me has poked holes in Bonoffs supposed “executive management”. Her own ex (and i well aware u know who he is (:):):)), has openly stated that she started as a PR gal at Navarre, and here she goes around claiming she was this senior level executive.
sorry td, some of us can connect the dots and spot a phony resume a mile away, because we actually are a part of corporate world and do that everyday.
In addition i’ve criticized the “DFL politicians’ crony system”. This was supposed to be a good ole boy/gal coronation, and things have not gone that way. Guess what even other bloggers like Gavin have picked up on that crony system. So if i was so off the mark, how come it is catching on ?
dtm
for u people like Andy Lugar and Doran etc are some kind of high minded folks who have done a lot for the district.
For me and a lot of activists, those guys mean nothing. Just because Andy Lugar was some kind of states attorney, means nothing to me. Show me where he put his skin on the line and achieved something and I will have a lot more respect for him.
Show me where they fought the difficult fight like minority or low income access to sports, or low income housing or union rights. All these guys do is to give sofistikated talk like “diversity”, “education gap”, but never, not once, nada have put their own skin in any game.
Keep in mind that district like SLP and Hopkins are today almost 30% minority and low income. Show me any one of these politicians who raised their voice for those kids. Nada, Zip. Believe me my contempt for people like Ron Latz and Steve Kelley is because of my direct interaction with them. They have done jack s..t for the low income kids in their district. And this was told to me directly by a school board member.
Madia speaks the truth. For example, he refuses to scrap NCLB fully, because as he states we have to test to find out who is falling behind. Leave it to school boards and they will massage the lower quintile results into the higher results and present this phony picture of progress and diversity.
He speaks the unpleasant truth about Iraq (that we just can’t pull out), while others are basically striking a position based on political expediency
Is he an opportunist because he moved to back to his hometown. Sure you can look at it that way. So what, at least he grew up there. The same argument could be made for Hovland as an opportunist who converted to the DFL when he heard that Ramstad was retiring, and for Bonoff who is willing to dump her career in the Senate after less than 1 term.
I have met with Ashwin on several occasions and let me tell you he is very humble. His campaign has worked very, VERY hard on this race, and they are showing no signs of letting up.
And, to remind everyone: we are all democrats and we WILL all come together after the endorsement. No matter who that person is.
wmd
I dove straight for the gutter on this blog, when i heard that Bonoff was calling delegates and stating that Madia was an attorney who never had a job.
sometimes a gutter fight is necessary and i am willing to do it.
If we limit ourselves to candidates who “have a track record”, we are limiting ourselves to a bunch of lawyers who can hang around town all the time.
We are cutting ourselves off from executives, scientists and businessmen, entrepreneurs who early in their careers cannot commit to such in-town only careers. These are the people who can bring fresh blood into the system.
Here is a scientist: Phyllis Kahn is a member of the Minnesota Legislature serving her 16th term. She has a B.A. in physics from Cornell, a Ph.D. in biophysics from Yale and an M.P.A. from the J.F.K. School of Government at Harvard. — -
That is from her web site.
Beating the cronies:
Here is someone that got beyond the status quo in CD5 and ran a grassroots campaign in a respectful way, won the endorsement, and the election: Keith Ellison
(oops, he is a lawyer)
RM, we do agree on one thing: Less lawyers in government. That was one of the reasons that I supported Franken.
It just occurred to me that:
1) RM is against increasing the amount of lawyers in government.
2) RM is using Madia’s service as a lawyer in the marines as a positive campaign “talking point”.
3) RM insists that Madia has had a meaningful career as a lawyer and that is one of his qualifications for public office.
Is RM being inconsistent? How do we resolve the tension between the potential positive attributes of political newbie and the lawyer?
If, for the moment, we were on Star Trek, and this question was posed by Spock to alien androids, wouldn’t their heads explode?
You can’t choose both can you?
Rena, where are you?
tonka-dfler
yes, i am against electing political hacks who are able to hang around the state house because their careers, like laywers, allow themselves the time opportunity to do so.
show me lawyer who hung around the state house vs a marine and a lawyer, I’ll choose the marine. and if all that madia did was to hang around the statehouse, i would not have been impressed.
when u talk about Keith Ellison, hmmm lets see, the DFL sophisticates like Ember and Erlandson, who once again thought they were entitled to the nomination, ran the usual dirty campaign. keith ellision was a community activist.
tonka-dfler
Since u are insistent on re-jumping into the gutter, I’ll happily jump along.
RM is using Madia’s service as a lawyer in the marines as a positive campaign “talking point”.
Can you show me where i made this “talking point”. Oh I forgot I’m responding to a Bonoff campaign troll who sign up with different “avatars” as the need be.
Since you are one of the tonka-dflers you should talk to her ex (you know him dont you
:):)) as to how Bonoff was never this “executive business woman” but rather a PR gal.
“RM insists that Madia has had a meaningful career as a lawyer and that is one of his qualifications for public office.”
Can u show me a single post of mine that stated this. Or is this like your “talking points” - I found it, i wrote it, i never found it..
Have you ever noticed, Madias “track record” is not hanging around the state house. Its serving in the marines. Thats a lot different than hanging around the state house or for that matter even the art museum.
http://gavinsullivan.blogspot.com/
“Ashwin opened speaking at length about Iraq, telling the Edina DFLers what most of them don’t want to hear — that he’d like to vastly reduce our presence in that country but not entirely get out, near-term. When he speaks on Iraq Madia comes across as realistic, in contrast to Terri Bonoff’s pandering. ”
“I was struck this evening that interest in the Madia for Congress campaign is ratcheting up — I’ve never seen either of Ashwin’s opponents draw 50 people, solo”
tonka-dfler, i’m sure such words are maalox moments for you. well atleast you can stock up on the generic version of maalox. Now I wonder why the common folk do not come to hear Terri the “executive business woman”. Talk to her ex, (you know him don’t u
:):)), maybe she can come up with a new new Iraq policy.
gutter
Is this the same Gavin Sullivan that in 2006, at the CD3 candidate endorsement, offered a to give each member of congress a backrub to help the Democrats and Republicans come together?
You mention him or his Web site often, I’m sure he’s a nice person but what sort of political credibility or experience does he have?
That wasn’t Gavin Sullivan….it was Kevin Smith - the massage therapist who “ran” for the endorsement. Gavin has been very knowledgable and an excellent Dem. Two different fish all together.
Out of the gutter everyone.
Whoah, my BAD, wrong name, I apologize to the forum and Gavin.
tonka-dflr
Totally understood. Kevin was around for a very short time and made a statement, that’s for sure. Obviously the big tent in action, eh?
Gavin has done massive excellent research on our competition for that fall that I certainly hope he will share with the endorsee.
I’m glad you cleared that up for me. That name has stuck in my head for some reason and having not read his blog, I was surprised to hear about him so much here.
Good on him for doing research!
He’s a long time, strong DFL’er and excellent guy.
Gavin is great! I read him every day, and I enjoy seeing him at all of the events. His perspective is very interesting and he does spot on research.
Terri is having private training events in homes this week with RSVP
required.
Ashwin Madia is hosting public events that are open to all, even the Paulsen republican film crews.
What a difference.
According to Gavin Sullivan, Ash is strong in SD 41 (read his post from yesterday), and also SD 33. He had a blog post about Kim Kang, and how Ash has strong support there. I think that Ash may end up winning almost every district this Saturday again. Bonoff is in deep, deep trouble.
Again, I predict Ash by at least 10 delegates and I renew the challenge to have ANY Bonoff person predict a victory for Bonoff Saturday. I see it as mathematically impossible for her to win the majority of delegates on Saturday!
Not true, in addition to the training you mention, there is a training at the Edina Community Center. Call the campaign for other locations and times.
— — — — — — — — — — -
Terri is having private training events in homes this week with RSVP
required.
Ashwin Madia is hosting public events that are open to all, even the Paulsen republican film crews.
What a difference.
Tonka-dflr,
You care to venture a prediction for Saturday on delegates? You seem to be the only one confident about Bonoff’s chances, when she herself seems to have thrown in the towel.
What evidence do I have? Look at Madia’s website. Tons of new news stories and press releases. Bonoff’s site has absolutely nothing. They are ashamed of the results, and are looking for a graceful exit.
So, I predict Madia by at least 10 this weekend. Care to make a prediction Tonka. I say Madia splits 33, carries 41 by a delegate or two, routes her in 40, 45, and 49.
What is meaningful about a prediction? All of the National news organizations have been making predictions and have been wrong. What could make mine any more accurate or meaningful.
I am going to work hard to achieve the results I desire. That’s enough for me. If I am wrong, big deal. I have lots of other things to attend to.
The reason Bonoff folks aren’t willing to make a prediction is that they know she’s going to lose.
do you not agree that the Bonoff folks are resigned to a loss, and that the national party has already started talks with Ash about being the nominee…
Stop sniping in the sandbox everyone.
Tonka-dfler….agree with you. Work hard, hope your candidate wins and work to elect Dems in November. Lots of candidates, lots of races, all of it matters.
let’s get real….We need to learn from Bill Clinton….2003 Harkin Steak Fry…..find a candidate, fall in love, work hard, and when the nominee is chosen, fall in line and elect Democrats.
I’m all for that. Madia will be the nominee. Will Bonoff fall in line after Saturday?
I am in agreement with WMD, and am hopeful that all of us will be wiling to fold in behind our endorsed candidate after April 12.
All 3 of our candidates have stated that they will abide by the endorsement, so I think as supporters we should all do the same thing and follow that example.
The alternative is frightening if we don’t!
Let’s get real: I’m not sure what you think you’re achieving through your posts above.
I’m all for competitive spirit, but you’re being a tremendously sore winner.
The goal is to keep the DFL unified enough that we’ll all get behind Madia when he wins. Your aggressive posts turn off Bonoff supporters and will make them not want to get behind Madia from the start.
Please, so that we can achieve our overriding goal of winning in November, strongly consider toning it down.
I appreciate the sentiment MinnVoter. I respect Bonoff, and would welcome their supporters in our camp. My fear is that Ash will go up by about 55% to 45% in the convention, and Bonoff will push for a no-endorsement. That is why I am being aggressive. I want to hear a concession from those folks — -they know they’ve lost the popular vote of elected delegates fair and square. They’ve given up. I just don’t want them to steal it by trying some gimmick for a no-endorsement.
The worst case would be to have a primary.
I rather turn off the Bonoff supporters now, and not have a contested primary, than the reverse.
I agree about some of the Bonoff people trying to push for no endorsement and a primary.
I have read comments that say the the conventions and delegates do not represent the true will of the people, and I disagree. In previous years maybe, but with the record turnout this year, and the fact that the vast majority of those delegates are showing up at their respective conventions to be heard and vote, I think this year is probably more representative of the will of the people than we have seen for a while.
If we want to throw out the caucus system in a year when we have so much participation and push to a primary, then what is the purpose of the party or the party endorsement?
There is no grassroots participation in states with only primaries. My parents live in one, and they wish they could participate in a precinct caucus that helps to develop the party platform and action agenda.
It might look messy this year, but the huge turnout is wonderful! Who would have thought that 32,000 people would turn out in the 3rd?! And I would challenge anyone to try and say that 32,000 people picking their senate district representatives is not the will of the people!
Southwestdem, very eloquently put!! Can we have anyone from the Bonoff camp say that they will NOT push for a no-endorsement. If we can get that, I will certainly tone down the rhetoric. But, if we have a Bonoff camp that is going to fight this all the way — that will not respect the fact that Ash will go into the convention with a substantial lead — then us Ash supporters have no choice bot to fight. We’ve worked too hard for this, and we’re not going to let a bunch of DFL insiders take this away from us, and keep out a charismatic, war veteran who happens to be a person of color.
swd and wmd - you guys are under the impression that this is going to be some “can we all get along convention”.
If the Bonoff campaign is in an almost mathematically impossible situation of obtaining 60% based on last weeks results, what exactly do you think they are gunning for ? A good delegate count for vanity sake ?
Based on the Bonoff campaign that has been run so far, you are why do u think she will just fold. Its time to get realistic.
I warned that some shennanigans would be attempted in the Minnetonka convention. Sure enough they tried to pull something.
Lets get real:
Thanks for the explanation of your motives. I fully agree with you that if the Bonoff supporters push for no endorsement, it would be the height of selfishness, and would guarantee that the GOP holds the 3rd District seat for another 20 years. Thanks for your efforts to ensure that that doesn’t happen.
And southwestdem is totally right- tens of thousands of caucus-goers elected delegated to represent them, and those delegates are now overwhelmingly supporting Madia.
The writing is on the wall: the people have spoken loudly for Madia.
“The worst case would be to have a primary.”
Any idea how many non-partisan moderates would read that statement and be appalled? The games that are played to earn party endorsement are a big reason Independents are turned off to party politics. Many “commoners” would welcome a primary.
A primary wouldn’t serve YOUR objectives. But it would engage thousands who otherwise will perceive that two highly partisan candidates are handed to them for the General.
I don’t have a problem with primary….usually. But, it’s one or the other. Either caucuses/conventions or a primary. The local party units can’t afford both. We’ve already put out the money for the caucuses and conventions and a primary would be too much money additional. Also, the date of the primary is so late that it will give the GOP basically a much too long of a head start on the race.
So DTM, what you really want is a do over?
We’ve already had precinct caucuses and conventions. The process is working it’s way through to the general election now.
If you feel strongly about primaries over caucuses, then you should lead the way and advocate a change at the state level for the next election cycle.
I still feel that 32,000 people in the 3rd alone is a very large voice speaking loudly about what they want.
I heard that the Independents had 26 people go to their caucus in the twin cities. So much for the independent voice. Not trying to be sarcastic here, just realistic.
My parents would tell you that primaries also have their faults. Candidates have to have “viability” to even get on the ballot, so perhaps your independent friends wouldn’t be any happier with that either.
No system seems to be perfect, but at least right now a lot of people are engaged and involved. That’s a good thing!
This is not a troll statement and should not be viewed provocatively.
Just a point about politics. Just as those that became delegates at caucuses are using the system to gain advantage for their candidate, isn’t it fair game to take that same strategic view and win in the primary if necessary? Doesn’t the argument that the activist caucus attendees should pick the candidate go against the concept of the “will of the people”? Or, are you just being more selective as to who “the people” are?
The system is set up to settle differences like this. I would prefer an endorsement on 4/12, but, I would also have no problem going to a primary if it suits my candidate. This is going to be a great coattails election, Obama is going to be President, Franken is gong to be Senator, and whoever is running in the 3rd will have a narrow but possible chance at getting elected. Either of the candidates will have a struggle to win in this district.
After a primary, there will be plenty of time to get behind a candidate. The National convention isn’t even until August!!
So, it would not be the end of the world if this goes all summer.
Sen. Bonoff’s pro-choice stance is very clear. Planned Parenthood sent her a letter validating which was handed out at precinct caucuses. It said that planned parenthood was neutral on the fetal remains bill as introduced in the senate. When the house companion bill contained objectionable language, Sen. Bonoff did not advance the legislation.
Even with that logic (which I don’t agree with, by the way), how do you explain to people the waste of money to have caucuses, conventions and a primary? Also, how do you overcome the monetary advantage that the GOP would have sitting there banking it all summer while the two or three candidates tear each other up? How do you think a damaged, financially disadvantaged candidate would do in a very short race without time to adequately frame his/her opponent? Paulsen is already banking money and has more than the DFL candidates.
Traditionally there are reasons that states choose to have a primary or a caucus but not both. The financial implications of doing both is quite negative as it takes money away from local candidates who need it. It isn’t in our best interest to delay getting behind a candidate. Also, it makes the candidate who drags it out a liar as each of these three have already agreed to abide by the endorsement. Doesn’t exactly endear them to the party, does it?
tonka-dfler in many of his previous posts, claimed what a true and blue dfler he was; how people like me are just some johnny come latelys to the the dfl.
now tdfl, a self proclaimed dfl apartchik, states that a caucus system is not the “will of the people”.
this is a good lesson to wmd, swd and all you folks. when it comes to power our dfl politicians are not exactly some shining stars on the hill. it is a mission to grab and gain power at any cost. And Terri Bonoff is about to show us her true colors this Saturday.
Just a note to the Franken folks. All those new folks who showed up for Madia, imo, are not going to show up for Franken and not in this lifetime for Bonoff if she by any remote possibility gets to the general.
Planned Parenthood is ALWAYS NEUTRAL so that doesn’t mean anything! Let’s hear from Naral-Pro Choice Minnesota, who will say that Bonoff is pro-choice, but they also expressed concerns about that bill. What is in question is NOT her pro-choice stance, but her JUDGEMENT in aligning herself with Laura Brod and the MCCL.
And Terri KNEW that SF 1739 was problematic, otherwise she would not have had her legislative assistant hold off giving an appointment to the lobbyist for Naral Pro-Choice Minnesota for 3 WEEKS while she authored it!
And excuse me, but you have your time frames wrong, since the House bill was written FIRST, so Terri KNEW the language before she wrote the companion.
Nice try, but authoring that bill was a big mistake and Terri knows it because she has told many people that she buried it and would even withdraw it this session (something that has not happened).
So are you now offering the 7th reason we should ignore that bill?!
All good points!
I do prefer an endorsement on 4/12 for all of those reasons. I don’t mean a primary fight for the sake of it, what if it is 50/50 in April at the convention? I was just expressing the logic of the will of the people in a different way.
My rationale for a primary has nothing to do with which candidate is currently ahead, or the fact that Paulsen is running unopposed. I’m just saying that if your average Independent voter, who by all accounts makes up at least 1/3 of the population, read that people here want to “prevent” a primary, it would not at all appear to them to be in the spirit of people having a voice. My comment was more to point out the perception that many would have of the tone on this thread, not requesting any type of do-over.
Primaries are inviting. They are anonymous. They allow people to engage. A caucus is inherently flawed: It requires a voter to engage in a very partisan environment in order to be heard. All party activists are usually voters, but not all voters want to be party activists. Most, actually, do not!
Some voters choose not to engage in partisan settings because of principle. Others because of intimidation. I’m sure others because of laziness. Madia’s campaign is doing a great job of getting more of his supporters to attend these conventions. Is that “the people speaking”? Slightly. But way more than that, it is a sign of a well-organized campaign team.
I just want to point out that painting the caucus/convention system as “the people have spoken” image is flat out inaccurate.
The House version HF 0599 of the Grieving Parents Act was introduced and had it’s first reading on Frbruary 5, 2007.
The Senate version SF 1739 had it’s first reading on March 5, 2007.
The 2 bills are pretty identical.
We are saying the same thing.
I would suggest then that a candidate who works as hard and is so organized is demonstrating what kind of a job he will do for us once elected.
Campaigns define the candidate. Ashwin Madia works from dawn until long after midnight every day. His campaign doesn’t quit! That kind of work ethic and dedication will serve us well once he is in Washington.
Has there ever been a historical case of non-endorsement in a CD election? Just curious. Or is this possibility being floated now just because the DFL establishment is threatened?
We need to make sure they don’t steal this election from us. That’s the only way Bonoff folks can possibily win, and we’ve seen that they may be willing to go there. I know for a fact Ash would be very gracious if Bonoff had more delegates, and would NOT push this to a primary. The fact that the Bonoff folks aren’t willing to extend the same courtesy shows their “true colors.”
I totally agree that a primary is more open and involves more people but those decisions need to be made at the party level way before a race begins. A primary shouldn’t be tossed out there when one candidate is behind. It’s a huge expense and damages other candidates who need the party funding. If the candidates are 50-50 on April 12, there will be more ballots. I can’t recall ever seeing a balloting finalized in a draw.
Couldn’t agree more – the primary / caucus system needs to be re-evaluated, but not in the middle of a campaign.
(much like the wrong time to question the electoral college system was when Gore had just fallen victim to it )
There is no such thing as the “DFL establishment” D stands for disorganized. Who is willing to steal an election? Who is suggesting that?
DTM,
Very true. We need to see how things play out this weekend and move to the convention. It has to end there - however it comes out. If we need a change of process next time around, so be it. The time to discuss that is after this cycle. A primary at the end of the summer would ensure the GOP wins the seat.
A primary would also cost quite a bit of money, and that is after all of the money already spent on the caucuses and conventions. Are those of you wanting a primary willing to pony up for that?
I think this is a good discussion to have after the general election next November. DTM — why don’t you bring it up, say in January? This would actually be a nonpartisn discussion, wouldn’t it? All parties would have to have input.
Has Minnesota always had a caucus system?
So, tonka, you agree that if Ash is ahead in delegates after next Saturday, he should be endorsed and there should be no primary
No, I don’t agree. The endorsement convention is April 12. I will be there to cast my vote then. At that time, I will abide by whatever the candidates and the party decide to do.
So, even if Ash has more delegates, you would consider having a primary?
lets get real…..tonka dflr is talking about the endorsing convention on April 12, not a primary later this summer/September. Everyone agrees that this needs to play out. If one candidate is significantly ahead this weekend, others may drop out but everyone has the right to go to the endorsing convention and have their say. It’s one thing to complete the process set in place - the process under which these candidates decided to run, it’s another to change it halfway through. Complete the endorsing process and let things stand. If a primary is more acceptable next time around, it should be discussed after this fall’s election.
This should be decided on April 12.
I agree WMD. Is that your position tonka. Or are you pushing for a primary?
Everyone has the right take this campaign to the endorsing convention. And I personally would rather see a primary than a brokered convention.
And Jim Hovland or Ron Erhardt have the right to enter this race as an Independent. (they would do very well)
I wish we could just make Paulsen the enemy- not each other.
How about making the following the enemy:
- Poverty
- Wasteful government spending
- Terrorism
As a moderate, I don’t want the Dems to treat Paulsen as the enemy or vice-versa. We can keep this civil.
let’s get real- I’m a Madia supporter, so of course I appreciate your enthusiasm toward his campaign. Please try to tone it down here though because even though your optimism is great, it might come off as cocky to some.
Southwest Dem — You’re right; I am referring to Laura Brod’s potential changes to the original legislation. At that poit, National Planned Parenthood advised the local office to not support the proposed changes. That’s when Bonoff stopped advancing it. She tried to help a constituent, but when it looked like it could come back to haunt pro choice, she stopped pursuing. Not a big deal. I ust don’t want any implications out there that she’s anything but pro choice. She’s also a good advocate for her constituents.
voter,
I have never heard anyone ever question whether or not Terri is pro-choice or not. I firmly believe her when she say she is. The question isn’t her pro-choice stance but the number of stories she has told about this legislation. First she was carrying it for a very close friend, then a constituent, then she was carrying it so she could control it so no one could bring it to the floor and it would die, then she was going to withdraw it immediately when the session started and that hasn’t happened either. The first several iterations on the story of this legislation occurred before the Mankato Free Press story was forwarded around with direct quotes from Terri and Laura Brod stating that she was “proud” to be carrying it and that she would push it through upon the session starting.
It’s not pro choice or anti-choice. It’s too many stories about one piece of legislation. No one questions her position on choice. We do question which story is the truth.
Anyone who thinks that Bonoff is just going to take defeat easily and go away is deluded. Let’s see how much money she raises end of the quarter. My guess she’ll spend every last dime trying to block the endorsement. This is going to be a huge fight, and we are deluding ourselves if we think that it’s not going to be. So, I will tone it down after April 12th, once Ash is the nominee, and headed for stardom! Until then, we must fight to prevent any of the establishment tricks. I am with RM on this. Power to the people.
Voter- It is also about good judgement. Can’t help but think the bottom line here is that Laura Brod snookered Bonoff into sole authoring that legislation, and Bonoff thought it would be her big chance to be the chief author of something.
Did Terri go to anyone for advice before she wrote that bill? Did she consult with Naral Pro-Choice Minnesota, or did she have her assistant stall off appointments with their lobbyinst for 3 weeks until after she wrote and read it?! That in itself tells me she did not want to listen to good council, and she knew what she was doing was going to be controversial.
There are so many stories out there, and I have heard about this from lots of people all over the place.
Bottom line, Terri should have come forward with the truth bravely and boldly, and this would not be an issue. Not doing so brings good judgement into the equation.
If she was not smart enough to do her homework or consult with others while in the state senate, how could she possibly be smart enough to maneuver her way around the big sharks in Washington?
And by the way voter, your story keeps changing as well, and you don’t answer the questions put to you.
My parents taught me that if you always tell the truth you never have to worry about who you talk to or what you say because it will always be the same.
This legislation and all of the stories and excuses surrounding it make a moving target and the average person doesn’t know what to believe.
swdm
What did you expect. My trolling about Terri Bonoff may be harsh, but it is the truth. Unfortunately for them I’ve researched her “business experience” and they keep falling all over themselves with their half baked facts that they fling at me.
Why are most of the far west suburbs not voting for her. Simple. They do not trust her. Vote for her and she will move to the right guaranteed, as evidenced by her own actions in the State Senate.
She never expected to be in this position. She expected this nomination to be a cake walk and under those circumstances she would have given a rats butt to the progressive element of the party. Go ahead all you “can we get along” dems vote for Terri. Then she will have a lock on the primary process into the future and you guys will be …well left high and dry.
This “we all need to get along” is a strong Ash Madia supporter.
Another example. The fetal remains bill. Read “her” bill and the one proposed/enacted in Missouri. They are virtually identical.
http://house.mo.gov/content.aspx?info=/bills041/bilsum/intro/sHB914I.htm
What exactly u think was going on. She was trying to build a base in the right, so that she could not be defeated in the Senate race at all. Progressives would not have been able to mount a serious challenge in the primary, and in the general she would have done enough of these Fetal Remains kinds of bills that the right would not vote against her, because she is carrying their water.
To the “can we all get along” folks, I may be the party pooper, but analyze each of my accusations carefully. The “business experience”, the “fetal remains”….
G
Go ahead guys and gals vote for Terri, shes “one of us” as tonka-dfler will put it to us. But see, tonka-dfler is none else than…..well he knows who he is, and is already hedging on the caucus because they want to force a primary.
More than half of the party delegates voted against her, but she now wants a primary. That shows u her true colors, and of the people who support her. They believe they are entitled to this, and will use any machination to achieve it.
Sure they’ll sniff sniff at people like me, who are “dividing us”, but they have no problem driving the party into the ditch if it is not going their way.
Another example, the Bush Tax Cuts. For all her supposed “progressive talk”, she will not touch this one.
Our economy and country is in the ditch, but Terri Bonoff is busy signaling to the right that she will carry their water. Once again, why ? Because she never expected to get a fight from the party base and wanted to lock in at the right of center. Which means for you “can we all get along folks” it will be long cold ice age….Go ahead folks, tell me I’m wrong and we should “all get along”.
Now rumors are surfacing of Bonoff doing “contrast on Iraq” phone calls….
She can’t win on her own merits. Pretty sad. I only hope her senate seat isn’t so damaged after her behavior in this race that she can hold it.
RM = Republican Man
Republicans use 3 primary methods of communication.
1)Lying
2)Citing the example of the bizarre extreme
3)Namecalling
RM insists on quoting me and others on things that we don’t say.
RM cites bizarre extremes to make a point.
RM belittles others in the hope of boosting himself up.
Why?
What is his motivation?
A troll by definition is one that disrupts to get a reaction from people participating in good faith and with good will.
Why tolerate that?
What value does it bring to any reasoned discussion?
I would like to see some more Madia supporters denounce these remarks and tactics by RM. We are in this together. He apparently is not.
West Metro Dem,
Who has received this call?
Why have I not been given the script and a list of names to call?
Rumors are just that. Where is your proof?
I got an email from a friend. We thought it was just isolated. Now Joe Bodell on MNCampaignReport.com has it up. He’ll have more info later today.
folks u can read my posting on the Fetal Remains bill and pointing to the Missouri bill. show me where my analysis is hyperbole.
if u disagree with my anaylysis, sure post where i am wrong in claiming that Terri Bonoff was trying to build a center of right coalition for her Senate Seat.
unfortunately for tdfler, i am pointing out issues that make her campaign uncomfortable. here is a guy who claims he is a true dfler and then says caucuses are all baloney.
Gave always said if Zack or Sean want to contact me they are welcome.
swd — It’s so ironic that Madia puts out an email to delegates saying he doesn’t want negativity, and then his insiders / supporters try to plant rumors like the calls and the choice garbage. Planned Parenthood, in their 2-5-08 letter to Sen. Bonoff distributed at the precincts said “Few inividual legislators have ever made such a huge impact on the lives of women, especially in their very first year of public office” (Connie Perpich and Tim Stanley). Terri has a stellar record on this and has received the support of organizations because of it. Ashwin Madia has no public record except for what he says in his campaign and his earlier staunch conservative days, up to 2000. Other than that, we have no actions to judge how we will be as a lawmaker. We do not know how he will respond to lobbyists. To party pressure. To constituents. To his conscience. Nothing.
“RM cites bizarre extremes to make a point.”
I guess questioning her fetal remains bill, support for bush tax cuts and questioning her motives in the caucuses are all bizarre extremes.
Not one person ever has questioned whether or not Terri is pro-choice. Bandying about a letter proclaiming she is pro-choice is great. It’s expected - not the exception.
Why do you bring this up again? Is it to get the talking point out there? Unfortunately, no one has questioned this stance.
I bring it up in response to the innuendoes and implications posted by Ashwin’s closest advisors/supporters on this page. Also to reiterate the inability of a voter to judge how he will be as a lawmaker.
Ah, unfortunately for you you’re assumption is wrong. I’m not involved with his campaign. I’m a supporter but that’s it. I’m not an advisor either. I’m more knowledgeable about the Fetal Remains Legislation through another organization that I belong to that has had a long standing discussion with Terri that involves spinning and spinning different stories from November of last year to what is posted above. No innuendo. These are stories, spins coming directly from Terri and her closest confidants.
I would trust someone unknown over her at this point in time, frankly. She left a very bad taste in my mouth over how she has handled the questions about this legislation - it’s not only the legislation - but the motive for it, why she carried it, what she’s doing about it - all of those seem to change depending on who is asking.
Judging someone by their words is what we are expected to do. It’s all we have. I would judge Ash Madia as trustworthy until proven otherwise. I used to think the same of Terri but that opinion has changed through this mess.
I hear that the buzz in DC is Ash already has this wrapped up. Congressman Honda said at an event that we need to be focused on the general so he beats Paulsen.
I hope Bonoff does the graceful thing and exits, and that the national party puts pressure on her to do this. I hear from folks that she is serious about taking this to a primary. What’s the point? It’s just self-destructive.
And her contrast calls on Iraq are despicable. Why is she engaging in this negativity. We need to call her on it. It’s time to be aggressive.
“I hear from folks that she is serious about taking this to a primary. What’s the point? It’s just self-destructive.”
There’s a simple reason she would be willing to take it to a primary: she could win.
Madia is benefiting from the energy he’s generating at the caucus level. He has created more hardcore voters than Bonoff has. The hardcores are the ones that are willing to dump an entire Saturday (or, multiple saturdays) to caucus. As I’ve said, the target demographic that Bonoff has gone after, the soccer mom crowd, isn’t a crowd you would typically associate with taking a whole saturday off and heading to their caucus. I think almost 300 delegates didn’t show for SD43 (I’m guessing based on the original estimate of almost 800 delegates). I’m willing to bet the vast majority of those would have leaned Bonoff.
I don’t think anyone really has a sense of what the population at-large thinks of the election.
Madia probably is still favored in a primary (now) also based on his ability to energize an electorate. Turnout would likely be small, that energy would translate into turnout. But, I suspect that impact will be watered down some based on the additional numbers as compared to its impact in the caucus.
It’s no different than Obama’s ability to win pretty much every caucus and do so by astronomical margins. I don’t think any general polling in Minnesota had Obama up on Clinton 2:1. If it were a primary he may have won, but, he wouldn’t have won by that margin.
For all of the crony talk, Madia’s strengths are playing right into the caucus system. He can connect to all of the voters in a way he couldn’t do in a primary.
I would hope that Bonoff doesn’t put it to a primary (and not just because I’m a Madia supporter). I think it is self-destructive if she looks like she’s just trying to get a second chance election. But, if she’s intent on winning this thing, it’s not as if it’s an insane tactic to push for a primary.
Madia needs to shut this game down this weekend.
Actually a primary will not be easy for Bonoff. Heres why.
If a candidate wins a caucus a person with a homogenous segment of the population, either ethnic or economic demography, then they are a prime target for a primary.
Based on the pictures by Gavin, or i guess any stratified sample of the caucus crowd would prove; the one with the more homogenous crowd is Bonoff . Madias crowd is more evenly distributed. This I believe can be validated across all the district caucuses, I’ve seen pictures off so far.
As a card carrying dues paying member of Emily’s List, I can assure you that while Terri might have their endorsement on her website, they have NO INTENTION of doing anything for her or her campaign.
As for that Planned Parenthood letter, we all know that they DO NOT ENDORSE and STAY NEUTRAL. What exactly has Ms Bonoff done to drastically change the lives of women?! What matters in Minnesota is Naral Pro-Choice Minnesota, and I do not hear them singing her praises!
I am NOT a member of the Madia campaign, do NOT work on the Madia Campaign, and I am a lowly supporter.
Voter, can you say the sae?
From memory, SD43 has a maximum of 744 delegates (plus or minus 25 or so) I think around 600 total showed up and 535 stayed to sub-caucus. That leaves around 209 missing potential delegates to vote in the sub-caucuses between all of the campaigns.
yes, swd, I too am a lowly volunteer, suburban middle age housewife who doesn’t own a red blazer, drives only american vehicles, has lived in the district since 1986 and do indeed volunteer for my canidate on Saturday mornings. I care too much about this to see someone who has no history of any public position making laws, with all the trappings that come with that responsibility, going to congress.
voter,
Then you would be fine with supporting Paulsen over Madia? How about Tim Walz before he won last time around - no legislative experience? How about Patrick Murphy? How about Heath Schuler?
Many congresspersons are new to political office. It’s not what makes a good legislator. What makes a good legislator is judgment and understanding of the issues. That’s where Terri comes up way short.
Voter,
Paul Wellstone didn’t have experience either, and I bet you loved him!
A little bit of experience, a lot of bad judgement and a lack of understanding of the issues of the day does not a good congressman make.
Go beyond the flashy talking points, and there isn’t much to offer from Bonoff.
What do you make of Hovland suspending his campaign? he sees the writing on the wall. You think Bonoff may come to the same conclusion.
And why is Hovland talking about no-endorsement? Has he struck a deal with Bonoff? What’s going on here?
Madia has this thing sewn up, and they are playing games. This is the typical DFL establishment stuff.