SD 33 - Shorewood/Excelsior/Wayzata/Orono/Medina - 16 delegates
Bonoff - 5
Madia - 9
Uncommitted - 2
SD 40 - Bloomington - 9 delegates
Bonoff - 2
Madia - 6
Uncommitted - 1
SD 41 - Edina/Bloomington - 19 delegates
Bonoff - 7
Madia - 11
Uncommitted - 1
SD 44 - Hopkins - 1 delegate
Bonoff - 0
Madia - 1
Uncommitted - 0
SD 45 - Plymouth - 2 delegates
Bonoff - 1
Madia - 1
Uncommitted - 0
SD 49 - Coon Rapids - 6 delegates
Bonoff - 2
Madia - 4
Uncommitted - 0
UPDATE 11 - All numbers except SD 45 are now final. I’m going to put up a new posts with the final totals and a little bit of math/analysis. Watch for that in the next 20 minutes.
UPDATE - Still no numbers, though subcaucusing should be starting within the next couple of hours. The Uptake reports that the 41 appears to be close, with Bonoff perhaps having a slight advantage. Noah also reports that Hovland delegates appear to be breaking towards Madia. Our sources on the ground at SD 33 report that it appears to be pretty even between the campaigns, with about 20% undecided. Its going to be an interesting day. Publius’ own Sean Broom is driving out to Medina as I write this, so first hand accounts will be coming shortly.
UPDATE 2 - Sean reports that the Bonoff campaign has a lit piece out that quotes a John Mayer song. Make of that what you will. He also says the SD 33 convention is being held in the best room ever, basically its where your high school prom was held. On the Senate race front, Sean says the floor appears to be dominated by Franken supporters, but that JNP might get a delegate or two.
UPDATE 3 - Checking in with sources around the district, it would appear that all of the bigger conventions are split pretty close down the middle. If this turns out to be true, it would mean that Bonoff will have a difficult time making up her deficit in earned delegates. On the other hand, when you factor in supers, Bonoff is only down by a handful, so she could make it close enough that the uncommitted delegates could give her a majority on the first ballot. Its possible, but not probable. Its probably going to be at least an hour before we have any real numbers, as most conventions are breaking for lunch.
UPDATE 4 - There are between 470 and 490 people at the SD33 convention! The viability number is 30… you do the math. As a side note, (this is Matt posting this update) SD33 is my district and I’ve been to the Medina Ballroom many times but I have no idea how they fit 470 to 490 people in that place. Hopefully they have the bowling alley up and running.
UPDATE 5 - The 49 numbers are preliminary.
UPDATE 6 - The 41 numbers are per the Uptake, and preliminary
UPDATE 7 - The SD 44 delegate is also committed to Franken.
UPDATE 8 - According to our preliminary numbers, it is no longer mathematically possible for Bonoff to overtake Madia in elected delegates. In order to overtake him in total delegates, she must win 78% of the remaining delegates. Remember, however, that it takes 60% to win the endorsement. In order to secure a first ballot endorsement, Madia would need 91% of the outstanding delegates (thats if all uncommitted went to Bonoff.) Unless Bonoff were to win the support of some elected Madia delegates, it is no longer possible for Bonoff to win a first ballot endorsement.
UPDATE 9 - SD 40 numbers are preliminary (to be clear, I classify all numbers as preliminary until I can verify the count with both campaigns).
UPDATE 10 - Numbers out of 33 are preliminary. If these numbers hold up, Madia has secured a majority on the first ballot.
I think you’re total delegate count is switched. Doesn’t Madia have 54.5 and Bonoff 46?
Madia is up in SD33 — far more blue shirts. This is over!
Zack says in UPDATE 3: “Its probably going to be at least an hour before we have any real numbers, as most conventions are breaking for lunch.”
Dang, a lunch break. That would have been nice in SD62 last weekend - although some pretty good food was available on-site, getting through the 50 or so named sub-caucuses sure could have used an official “lets-get-our-heads-around-this-do-we-really-need-25-variations-of-Franken/Obama” reality-check/lunch break.
I just got back from working at the SD33 convention. There may have been more blue shirts but a lot of people had Bonoff buttons who weren’t wearing red. I think it will be close.
Agree that SD 33 will be close. I think both campaigns ran out of T-Shirts. I know the Madia camp had to run and get more and both campaigns have a lot of people with just stickers on.
My sense was undecideds were moving to Madia. But, it will be fun to see how it turns out.
Joe Bodell reporting huge win for Madia in SD41 (10 to 5). If that holds, I don’t see how Terri comes back.
Wow, Madia won 41 as well. He’s going to probably clear 80 delegates in hard core committed ones. Bonoff should drop tomorrow! Even Ken Sanguin won’t be able to spin this!
Sounds like final 41 is 11-7-1 for Madia. Still a huge win.
Looks like Madia will end up in the high 80s after today. Is there any rationale for Bonoff staying in, or do you think she does the gracious thing and bows out?
If these trends hold, Madia is winning by more than enough wherein the super delegates will face real and legitimate pressure to swap their support.
Unless Bonoff pulls a miracle in SD-33, this is over.
The total count of delegates:
SD 41 total delegates available 19:
Madia 11
Bonoff 6
Uncommitted 2
St. Louis Park total delegates available-1
Madia 1
Bonoff 0
Coon Rapids total delegates available-6
Madia 4
Bonoff 2
He beat her and beat her convincingly. She will not be able to hold on to atleast the uncommitteds and/or the super delegates.
SD-33 goes Madia big time! 9-5.
I hope she does the classy thing so Madia’s team can start concentrating on Paulsen.
If neither gets “95 needed for endorsement,” then what happens?
There is a second vote. Presumptively, with this big of a gap, some super delegates (and non-committed) would switch sides and push over Madia.
“If neither gets “95 needed for endorsement,†then what happens?”
Either one drops out and we get a presumptive nominee, or there’s a brokered convention, which isn’t too uncommon for races such as this. In 2006 we had a brokered convention for Governor and for Sec. of State. It’s pretty much the norm unless someone has clearly wrapped it up then most challengers step aside, unless they plan to take it to a primary.
RE “brokered convention”
Do you mean that people outside CD3 would get to vote in the statewide convention for the CD3 nominee?
I just got back from SD41. What energy! Ashwin Madia won easily. Lots of Hovland supporters undecided at first but breaking for Madia once they heard him speak.
We have our candidate, and Erik better buckle up. It’s going to be a funride and Ash is going all the way!
“Do you mean that people outside CD3 would get to vote in the statewide convention for the CD3 nominee?”
No, just the delegates to the CD3 convention. That’s why these people are being elected, they are state delegates and CD3 delegates, and they’ll choose the candidate at the CD3 convention.
Zack — - you deleted the totals….
Wow! I should never underestimate the ability of a bunch of my fellow democrats to pick the candidate least likely to win in November…
You all are tragic. Bonoff was the one candidate who could win in November. She was the clear and easy choice in this race. She is a talented, young, articulate DFL candidate in a tough district. She is the only candidate to enter this race who has won as a DFLer in the heart the GOP land that we call the CD 3.
Shame on this blog and the commenters for rooting for an untested former republican. (And an anti-labor one at that: http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1996/11/04/1935.).
When we lose in the third, I’ll know who to blame…
P.S.
Will someone tell the Madia campaign that they can’t use campaign T-shirts made in Honduras. I looked at the t-shirts they are giving away, and they were made in Honduras. If it was a mistake, they need to throw those things away and start over. If they keep using them, I’m going to assume it was intentional.
Grow up.
NorthbyNWDFL - I don’t know how you can call Terri “articulate”. She has run a terrible campaign - this was clearly hers to lose and she has done so.
I was at one of the senate district caucuses today and someone told me that the Madia campaign ordered the shirts through a union shop but the union screwed up and got the shirts from Honduras. Not much you can do about that.
Wow… NorthbyNWDFL sounds like no one I can think of…..
OKAY — ENOUGH ABOUT THE SHIRTS! THE MADIA SHIRTS WERE PURCHASED FROM SEVEN CORNERS PRINT SHOP, A UNION PRINT SHOP STAFFED WITH UNION WORKERS. CHECK IT OUT.
Ashwin Madia has run a flawless campain, stayed positive and deserves the endorsement.
Ash will easily win in Novmeber!
NorthbyNWDFL sounds like a very sore loser. Time to get in the fold and support our democratic candidate!
NorthbyNWDFL: Come on, fess up! You’re Hillary, right?
swd - “Ashwin Madia has run a flawless campain, stayed positive and deserves the endorsement.”
I tend to agree.
swd - “Ash will easily win in Novmeber!”
No. This is going to be a very tight race. If Madia wins, it will be by 1-2%. The Republican base in the 3rd is still very strong, at least 40%. That doesn’t leave alot of Independents up for grabs.
But it can be done.
Blogger…
Where did you get your stats?
Our 2008 caucus in SD 42 alone was 4-1 over the pubbie side. Those numbers carried through across the entire state. That was in February.
By the time November gets here, people are going to be ready to vote, they are now, by getting into the process to endorse the correct candidate.
The Republican party is the “party that just keeps on giving!”
I’m not saying that it won’t be a fight for Madia, but he’ll succeed.
The Madia shirts are manufactured in El Salvador and Honduras. With the economy being our number one concern, it seems ludicrous to say buying shirts manufactured in these places is a democratic value. I am frankly embarrassed that anyone in our party would promote the use of sweatshops!
How are we going to help the unemployment rate or promote working wages when DFLers put on these shirts. If a real democratic candidate was given shirts that were not manufactured in the U.S.A. they would never see the (public) light of day.
The fact that Madia and his campaign do not recognize this, validates my position that they are not really democrats and Madia is still the hard-core republican he was while at the University of Minnesota!
Yep, WFIMY. You seem to want to fight the same battle over and over again. You need to get over it. The t-shirts were purchased from Seven Corners - a union print shop. Period.
Terri’s little scheduler wears imported jeans and imported tennis shoes while complaining about a t-shirt made in Honduras. The economy is all of those things - not just a t-shirt.
His campaign recognizes it - and more. Let’s talk about creating jobs in the US - not just making t-shirts.
Your inability to move forward makes me feel for you. It’s time for Terri to do the right thing and drop out.