Doug Grow continues his excellent coverage of the US Senate race over at MinnPost by predicting a nasty Senate race to come. While that notion has long been understood to be a near unavoidable reality, Grow does get some interesting quotes out of Franken. For example, when pressed on his out-state fundraising:
“Norm Coleman tried to say that I didn’t have support from inside Minnesota,” Franken said. “I’m proud to say I have 15,000 donors inside the state. It turned out that I have more supporters in the state than Norm Coleman does.”
Norm Coleman. Over and over again, he says the name.
Or when asked about how he’ll overcome the constant attacks that are sure to come (and have been coming for some time now) from the GOP:
“Jujitsu,” said Franken.
Say again?
“Jujitsu,” he said. “You turn your opponent’s attack against him. I’ll point out that Coleman’s running a challenger’s race. He’s not running based on his record; he’s running against me. That’s what happens when you claim you’re a 90 percent improvement over Paul Wellstone, and then have to try to explain that you meant you’re a 90 percent improvement over Wellstone because of your support of the president. I guess that’s what you have to do when you’ve attached yourself to the president’s hip. I guess the only thing left to do is attack your opponent.”
So that’s what a Coleman-Franken race will look like: tons of money being spent, with Coleman talking about Franken’s words and Franken talking about Coleman’s actions.
Agreed. I will add this, however, much of this race will turn on Franken’s ability, with the help of the DSCC and the DFL, to turn the spotlight on Coleman. If the spotlight remains on Franken, and no doubt the GOP will fight to keep it that way, this will be a much more difficult race for the author. Fortunately for him, he’s made a living out of turning other’s liabilities into punch-lines, and this time around he has a lot of material to work with…
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I thought that this was Ciresi’s best argument: that if he were the candidate, the election would be about Coleman, but that if Franken is the candidate, the election will be about Franken. Obviously that argument wasn’t strong enough, so now I hope that Franken can succeed in turning the general election focus to Coleman. If Obama is the presidential candiate, the greater energy on the Democratic side generally might help him.
Bob,
Agreed, also if Madia wins I think that his supporters are fairly enthusiastic and that will help Franken in a potential swing area of the state. Personal projections for how the different districts vote (assuming no IP candidate and Obama for President):
D#:F-C
1: 49-51
2: 54:46
3: 55:45
4: 54:46
5: 62:38
6: 44:56
7: 42:58
8: 52:48
Overall: approx 53-46 due to rounding
rationale: from what I hear there is some resistance to Al outstate (thus the results from 1 and 7) The twin cities hates Norm, Minneapolis (5) more than St. Paul (4) The congressional races in 2 and 3 will have massive turnout due to the other races on the ballot . 6 is the Exurbs of the Twin Cities, and I don’t really know 8.
I wonder if Norm can win even ONE precinct in the city he was mayor of.
I wonder if Norm’s very unusual arrangement concerning his wife will come into play? Does he even consider himself married at this point? Hollywood values indeed! If the rumors are true Norm has a pal in Spitzer.
I truly wish that Al Franken could let loose with some of his trademark comments about Norm Coleman. Unfortunately, if he does, the language won’t be up to the usual Minnesota standards and the punch-like will probably be a bit raunchy. It just doesn’t seem very senatorial, which I believe is why Franken’s speeches have been mostly quite lackluster during the campaign. He just can’t say anything relevant without a bit of shock (which makes us all laugh).
I have an idea: What if Franken spent the next few months slipping about singers about Norm Coleman and what if Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer ran the campaign for senate? I think there if a future for Al Franken in comedy and political satire. I bet he could make a lot of money doing it, actually.
First, let’s not coronate a DFL candidate just yet. Conventions get to do that, and as I’ve insisted all along, the road to Rochester’s a lot longer than some might like. Ciresi’s endorsement gives Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer an opening (albeit a small one), and I’ve maintained all along that when Jack gets face to face with folks, and when they stack his positions against Al’s (esp. on the war and health care…) at least some folks flip loyalties.
Second, let’s hope that punchlines about Norm aren’t a major part of Al’s campaign if he’s the candidate in the general. I’ve seen him in predominantly DFL crowds, and the jokes work there. I’m not sure that they’ll play with independents and moderate Republicans. I think Minnesotans want to be able to take their Senator seriously. I believe Al is serious about the issues, but using a satirist’s skills in the general election may undermine that, and reinforce a frame the Republicans would love to put on Al. (Imagine the tagline: “Al Franken: Is he Serious?”
I would maintain that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer remains the best candidate to actually defeat Coleman, because, in the end, we need the candidate whose consistent record on the issues draws the starkest contrast to Norm’s flip-floppy political cynicism. On the war alone, that candidate is Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.
Sorry. I didn’t mean endorsement. I meant his dropping out of the race. I honestly doubt Ciresi endorses at this point.
1) It remains to be seen whether Minneapolis hates Coleman more than St. Paul does. As a long-time St. Paul resident, this will be the fifth time I have voted against Norm Coleman.
2) I have stopped ripping (and have endorsed) Franken, so I think the JNP supporters can stop now too. JNP can’t win the endorsement - he can only block it. And with Ciresi out, that’s not going to happen.
One should always be careful of the stones that one throws in intra-party politics, windows get broken and bridges get burned that sometimes can’t be repaired. Remember too that you can’t effect change without winning the election.
The HRC campaign is getting a lot of criticism, rightly so, over the bombs they are throwing at Obama. Let’s not get into that sort of game here, shall we? Let the GOP make their own case, why give them additional ammunition?
Ugh. I’m neither “throwing stones” nor “ripping” Al Franken. There are legitimate differences between these two candidates. Each of them has strengths and weaknesses. Trying to shut down conversation about that is counterproductive.
That conversation has already occurred and convention delegates have overwhelmingly chosen Franken. JNP may be a better candidate, but he lost. Its over. No one wants to hear about about him now.
On another note — Gore took a ton of heat for not having any personality during his campaign. Much of that was attributed to his advisers telling him to be serious and uncontroversial. If Franken isn’t himself, doesn’t that have the same potential to backfire?
I think Franken has done a good job being both “serious” and himself so far — I think that is why he is doing so well.
Charley,
You stated:
“I truly wish that Al Franken could let loose with some of his trademark comments about Norm Coleman. Unfortunately, if he does, the language won’t be up to the usual Minnesota standards and the punch-like will probably be a bit raunchy.”
I am on board with the desire to see Franken let loose on Coleman, however, I disagree that the language won’t be up to MN standards. GOP talking points aside, the majority of Franken’s humor is not laced with words unbecoming to one’s typical hotdish. Franken’s humor, albeit condemning of many GOP policies and priorities, usually never could be considered raunchy. True, some of his comments have gone down this road, and obviously, the Ron Carey’s and Coleman’s will be sure to focus only on those defined as such, but most of his comments and humor could very well be played at a Lutheran potluck on Sunday afternoon at 2:00.
The large question will be how and if Franken can effectively out-message and brand himself in spite of all this. Marc
It is not just a horse race, and this blog has always wanted to quickly anoint someone. I will be working on creating a green sustainable economy, with Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.
“It is not just a horse race, and this blog has always wanted to quickly anoint someone.”
I don’t think that’s the case. Sean
The horse race or the torise and the hare race or the NASCAR race or whatever metaphor you want to use, the race is over.
Student Guy:
I think you’re hallucinating if you think that the 2nd district is going to go 54-46 for Franken. Kline has won that district 56-40 two times in a row. It’ll likely be closer than that this time, but to think that Coleman will get only 46 in that district seems pretty out there. I hope I’m wrong, because if you’re right then it’s gonna be a big night for the DFL.
“Kline has won that district 56-40 two times in a row. It’ll likely be closer than that this time, but to think that Coleman will get only 46 in that district seems pretty out there.”
Think Illinois CD-14
“Think Illinois CD-14”
Sure. Put up a humble Democratic candidate with lifelong local ties who is pro-business, and you might have a chance here too.
I think that the suburbs are getting frustrated with the republicans, especially Bush. Coleman has been attached Bush. Maybe I was a bit optimistic (I still think Franken will beat Coleman there), the predictions were back of the envelope projections.
Sorry you feel that way Grace. That’s certainly not our goal; nor do I think it’s the reality. Jack’s always been a good guy though, and he’s an interesting candidate, so please keep us updated on his campaign. We’ll try our best to cover him here as well, but so far there hasn’t been much to report.
This campaign is going to be very dissapointing to DFLer’s across the state. As a so-called Minnesotan is chasing “Paul’s” seat. The problem is that he is not Paul Wellstone. No, Al Franken is not even close to Wellstone. Al Franken is mean sprited, he is not funny, he can not be taken seriously by most the population of the state, and quite frankly he is annoying. The thing that was speacial about Paul, is that he would on occassion go off the deep end with his idea’s; however every person in the state knew that it was from the heart, that it was sincere, and it was what he thought would be best for all of us. Al Franken does not have those quality’s, and even if he does “when you get to know him” its not apparent enough for MN to see.
The news of Ciresi’s exit is very sad for me personally. I was born a democrat, I am a proud democrat today, but now I am not sure who I am going to vote for, because I do not think I can pull myself to vote for Al Franken.
It comes down to this. Do I vote for a sleazeball who I do not agree with, or do I vote for a mean spirited, carpterbagging comedian, who will likely embarass the state more than Jesse did who I may agree with most of the time? (yes, I know Norm is from NY, and Al moved to NY, but at least Norm put his kids through school here — I’m sick of these NYers running for our seats — but this is a sidenote)
Niether of those choices look very good to me. But my one vote is small beans.
The reason I know this is bad for the DFL is because if I am having doubts about voting for a dem, and have thought about voting for a rep. (like Norm — gasp) I know that the rest of the state — the middle of the road folks — are going to be voting for the incumbent, and not the comedian.
It really is a pretty sad day for the dfl. (my prediction is that Coleman gets 52, Al gets 44)
“This campaign is going to be very dissapointing to DFLer’s across the state.”
As a lifelong Minnesota democrat, I am completely jazzed about this race. There will never be another Paul Wellstone, and I am not expecting Franken to be one. I am looking forward to this race as much as I am to seeing Obama trounce McGoo.
MPR reports today that Al Franken “does not have time” for any more debates with Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Could it be because the only time he met Jack in a one-on-one debate he was soundly defeated? On the January 27th debate of this year, Franken hesitated, rambled, and could not demonstrate a sound grasp of, and interconnectedness of the issues. Franken did have a few humorous quips that drew applause and laughter from the crowd. But where is the substance? Franken has not done well in any of the debates I’ve seen. If Franken wants to defeat Coleman, yet shies away from any more debates with his remaining opponent for the DFL endorsement, that should raise significant doubts about his qualifications to be our next US Senator. Jack has challenged Al to several more debates to help delegates and voters decide for themselves. Franken was in Los Angeles yesterday raising more millions. You have enough money to win the endorsement, Al. Show us now if you have what it takes to be a Senator of real substance.
Hey, Chris,
Have you listened to Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer speak? There won’t be another Paul Wellstone, I agree. But check out Jack. He has the qualities you are looking for, in my opinion. Go to his website http://www.jackforsenate.org and click on a video link or two. Or check him out at Cuckingstool, where the video qualities are quite good. I think you will be happily surprised, and I predict that you will find the candidate you feel whole-heartedly happy supporting.
Hope to see you at the office, volunteering at his phone-banking!
Who exactly are you guys trying to convince about JNP? Since both Franken and JNP have agreed to abide by the endorsement, this is now up to caucus delegates, and Franken is dominating that race.
MNBlue has the totals so far as follows:
Al Franken - 161
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer - 54
Mike Ciresi - 24
Uncommitted - 48
http://www.mnblue.com/node/1267
That’s a 56 percent to 18 percent lead. Unless the results not yet in are dramatically different (and I have seen nothing to suggest they would be) this thing is over. That is why Franken “doesn’t have time” to debate JNP.
I have been hearing rumors floated by team Franken that Ciresi will be doing an endorsement at the Humphry day dinner this weekend. Talk about the tail wagging the dog! It takes some guts to try to make something like that happen by using the back door approach to put pressure on someone. From what I have heard from my friends at the DFL, Ciresi has pulled his sponsorship of the night and will not even be attending. In addition to that, a two year old who has been listening to the debate between Ciresi and Franken would know that Mike thinks Al is a no talent ass clown that needs to go back to NY. If team Franken doesn’t want to get totally embarrassed in the general election they would be wise to spend less time trying to manipulate stories and more time working out policies and putting to rest issues like Al supporting the war! Lets go over the facts once more so it doesn’t get passed anyone: Ciresi will not be going to the dinner. Ciresi will never endorse Al (or probably anyone at this point). Team Al needs to pull there heads out of his arse as they are pushing all of us moderates towards Coleman.
Dan, there is another reason why Franken doesn’t want to debate Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer: Franken keeps losing. I can’t tell you how many of these forums and debates I have seen. In nearly every one of them, the vast majority of folks come to listen to the celebrity Al Franken, and they leave supporting Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.
One of the smartest things the Ciresi campaign did was to tape all the debates and to put a mic on Mike. The result was fairly good quality footage illustrating Ciresi out-shining Franken time after time. At the same time, even most Ciresi supporters would have conceded that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer was the actual winner. It’s just that Franken was the obvious worst.
Look, I don’t know if it’s possible to convince you or not. I am personally quite persuaded that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer would be a thousand times better as senator than Franken. Jack knows more about foreign policy, more about domestic issues. Jack has better positions than Franken, better foresight, a better moral compass. I also happen to believe that Jack is more electable than Franken, because Franken’s style alienates so many and his policy positions appeal to so few.
But that’s me. Please just don’t try to pretend that you weren’t warned, if Franken has a Hatch-style meltdown and loses the election, or if Franken somehow manages to win, then shocks you with a stream of really bad votes. It’s a democracy and we get to pick who we want. Nowadays, people refer to that as making “really poor choices.”
I will concede, for argument’s sake, that JNP is infinitely better than Franken. If you’ve been following this blog, I have been extremely critical of Franken in the past.
My point is that it doesn’t matter anymore. Franken has a huge delegate lead, and people who have sat through a couple of caucuses in support of one candidate are unlikely to switch to another candidate at the state convention. Its over and Franken has won. Ciresi and JNP tried to make their case and didn’t make it. The risk of a Franken meltdown wasn’t enough to scare people away.
Franken may win and he may lose. He may have a meltdown. He may forget what E85 is. He may call a reporter a whore. He may get caught with a $5000/hr hooker. But there is nothing you can do about it now - Al Franken is our candidate. And whatever his flaws may be, he is a huge improvement over Norm Coleman.
OK, Dan, so now I am feeling confused. You concede, for arguments sake, that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer would make a infinitely better senator. Then you seem to concede that Franken has a very good chance of losing the election in November ($5,000 per hour! Damn, I don’t even make that much in a month after 40 years in the same career).
So what is the argument for Franken again? Are you Presbyterian and you believe it was predestined? Is this one of those fate things that only makes sense in nightmares?
My worst case scenario is that the meltdown happens AFTER the convention and before the election, guaranteeing a loss for Democrats. My hope is that the meltdown happens about two weeks before the Rochester convention, giving the state convention delegates a chance to see what they are getting.
But really, Dan, if Franken is mediocre on policy (and I will grant that he would be somewhat better than Coleman) and unlikely to win, why in the world would a thinking person consider him somehow inevitable? Shouldn’t we all be setting alarm clocks, brewing strong coffee and talking to delegates. I mean really, this is a potential disaster.
I know about JNP — but in reality Franken is the candidate. And like I said before its really to bad.
The real question (and in some ways this is addressing Dan) is Franken really better for the state of MN than Norm?
And to be honest, I can not say yes with a strait face. I think that Norm is worse for the nation and Al is worse for MN (there both bad for both). Norm is a problem because he has no moral compass; nobody knows where he is getting his cues from; however you know that he is too much of a politician to go to extreme. Franken on the other hand would be an embarrassment for the state. The state that Floydd B, Humphery, Freeman, McCarthy, Mondale, and Wellstone built a positive reputation for would be represented by a NY comedian within a decade of having a WWF wrestler as Gov. And you know Franken would be a flame thrower in the senate, and with the media. It would not be representative at all of the state. With Norm, we get crappy votes, but we do not get as embarrassed.
Anyways, it just drives me nuts. Moderates need not apply in the compulsiveness of our party faithful in endorsing a crappy candidate.
This is why we need to stop allowing these non-minnesotans to continue to run for office in our state. Norm and Al should go run for Gov of NY or something. Let us elect serious and quality candidates in Minnesota, per our tradtion.
“The real question (and in some ways this is addressing Dan) is Franken really better for the state of MN than Norm?” Yes.
Charley, my point is that its too late. Franken has won. The delegates simply aren’t going to change their minds no matter how much strong coffee you brew or how many phone calls you make.
If Franken is going to be a disaster, then we have failed to avert that disaster. Again, I have been airing my concerns about Franken for months. People here are well aware of those concerns and don’t seem to care. I think that is true for the party as a whole - people know the risks with Franken and are willing to take them. Its a done deal.
And because its a done deal, its time to close ranks and get behind Franken.
And Chris, while I have concerns about Franken in the Senate, I think he will behave himself. Even though I have railed against the guy, I think I have shaken Franken’s hand 3 or 4 times in the last year because he shows up at EVERYTHING. This is not a guy who is arrogant and out of touch. This is a guy who has won the nomination by working his ass off.
[It seems to me that Homiefro might be politically wound a little too tight.]
People attend, or do not attend, the Humphrey Day dinner for a variety of reasons.
For example, if the person speaking is is great demand as an orator, then there would probably be a large demand for tickets.
A political beginner, might think that almost every important DFL’er would attends the Humphrey Day [fund raiser] dinner. However, the beginner would find out that this is not necessarily so.
There will be articles in the newspapers, blogs, radio, television, etc. however, it seems to me that Mike Ciresi is in charge of himself, as any person, is in charge of himself.
He has a successful law firm, he donates much money through his private and public foundations, and he has many options.
In the StarTribune, Mike Ciresi recently said in a statement by his spokeswoman, Leslie Sandberg, “It is time to step aside.”
I think that most Minnesotans take Mike at his word.
If one has seen one’s [Ground Hog] Shadow cast on the pool of political slop, perhaps one could consider taking a six week break.