Today was a huge day for Ashwin Madia. Assuming that SD 45 results in a 1-1 tie (which looks very likely), Madia has won every SD Convention in the 3rd Congressional district except SDs 43 and 45. Thats impressive. Very impressive. Here are the totals:
Total Elected Delegates
Bonoff - 48
Madia - 84.5
Uncommitted - 7
Total Superdelegates
Bonoff - 15
Madia - 2
Uncomitted - 2
Total Delegates
Bonoff - 63
Madia- 86.5
Uncommitted - 9
95 delegates are required to win the DFL endorsement. That means Madia can win the endorsement without getting a single Bonoff defector if he sweeps the uncommitteds. Also, many of the superdelegates endorsed Bonoff when she was the prohibitive front runner. It would not be surprising for some of them to change their vote or, more likely, don’t show up to the convention. Bonoff’s best strategy at this point may be to attempt to block the endorsement and shoot for the primary. That would be difficult to do - conventions want to endorse a candidate.
Here in the Eighth District, Jim Oberstar brings home the bacon and fries it up in the pan. But oh, it would be great to have a district representative who EXCITES voters. Go Madia!
Does anyone have a list of all the superdelegates and who they’re endorsing? I don’t think I’ve seen their names anywhere.
Ashwin Madia was GREAT at SD41!
It was a wonderful dayand I can’t wait to vote for his endorsement at the 3rd congressional convention!
Any news on how Franken is doing today. Is he becoming a lock against JNP?? Zack or Sean a post on that race would be helpful.
Wow! I should never underestimate the ability of a bunch of my fellow democrats to pick the candidate least likely to win in November…
You all are tragic. Bonoff was the one candidate who could win in November. She was the clear and easy choice in this race. She is a talented, young, articulate DFL candidate in a tough district. She is the only candidate to enter this race who has won as a DFLer in the heart the GOP land that we call CD 3.
Shame on this blog and the commenters for rooting for an untested former republican. (And an anti-labor one at that: http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1996/11/04/1935.).
When we lose in the third, I’ll know who to blame…
P.S.
Will someone tell the Madia campaign that they can’t use campaign T-shirts made in Honduras. I looked at the t-shirts they are giving away, and they were made in Honduras. If it was a mistake, they need to throw those things away and start over. If they keep using them, I’m going to assume it was intentional.
Grow up.
Impressive indeed for Madia. Nobody heard of this guys only a few short months “or was it weeks” ago and now he is the front runner for the nod.
It shows what a great candidate, great staff, and more importantly great volunteer he has in the third. A team I would love to see expanded and run the table in the fall.
I see this thing going second or third ballot tops, no primary. Bonoff has a good spot in the senate and will probably remain there. She has need to burn bridges within the party.
Wow.. classy NorthbyNWDFL (or WFM). Instead of congratulate a candidate who ran a great campaign and support him against the GOP you decide to try (again) to trash him. Classy.
“Grow up”?
Nice response. Does “grow up” mean that I should look aside when I see a candidate ruining my party? How about a response to my points. In case you missed them, I’ll number them:
1) Madia can’t beat Paulson.
2) Bonoff can beat Paulson. Look at her victory in 2005…
3) Terri Bonoff is an amazing candidate. Take a look at Walter Mondale’s endorsement of her on her endorsements page: http://www.terribonoff.com/endorsements
4) Ash Madia used to be a republican and hasn’t explained his conversion. Does he still believe that the teacher’s union is what’s holding back education (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1996/11/04/1935.)? Does he still believe that the U of M faculty shouldn’t be allowed to unionize (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1997/01/31/3191)? Does he still support presidential candidates like Bob Dole and John McCain who want to curtail Medicare and Social Security (see the teachers union link)? How about some answers to these questions?
5) Madia wants to keep a ton of troops in Iraq, but keeps talking like he’s the one who will pull them out.
6) Yes, it should bother all of you that his T-Shirts are made in Honduras and printed in a non-union shop. In the recent history of our party I can’t think of one candidate who had the gall to do that. We need to hold our campaigns accountable for their behavior. This is a big deal.
I hope you have real reposts and not just more snark…
“1) Madia can’t beat Paulson.”
If you look at the poll commissioned by the Bonoff campaign, he is only down 3 to Paulsen, and I’m sure he has the lowest name rec of any of the three candidates. It sure looks like he can win to me.
“2) Bonoff can beat Paulson. Look at her victory in 2005…”
I don’t disagree with this.
“3) Terri Bonoff is an amazing candidate. Take a look at Walter Mondale’s endorsement of her on her endorsements page: http://www.terribonoff.com/endorsements”
Terri is a qualified candidate, but she has shown little ability to excite voters.
“4) Ash Madia used to be a republican and hasn’t explained his conversion. Does he still believe that the teacher’s union is what’s holding back education (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1996/11/04/1935.)? Does he still believe that the U of M faculty shouldn’t be allowed to unionize (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1997/01/31/3191)? Does he still support presidential candidates like Bob Dole and John McCain who want to curtail Medicare and Social Security (see the teachers union link)? How about some answers to these questions?”
He has addressed this many times. Lots of Democrats used to be Republicans. Hillary Clinton was president of the Wellesley Young Republicans.
“5) Madia wants to keep a ton of troops in Iraq, but keeps talking like he’s the one who will pull them out.”
While I support a full withdrawal from Iraq, I don’t believe Bonoff has taken a particularly progressive stance on it either.
“6) Yes, it should bother all of you that his T-Shirts are made in Honduras and printed in a non-union shop. In the recent history of our party I can’t think of one candidate who had the gall to do that. We need to hold our campaigns accountable for their behavior. This is a big deal.”
I’m pretty sure it was checked out that they were union. There was a large dust up about it on a earlier post and I believe the campaign was contacted and verified that they were union.
The T-Shirt stuff was an error the campaign has said and has been remedied.
Campaign t-shirts were ordered from 7 Corners, a union shop.
Sen. Bonoff was elected 2 times with massive DFL help from outside the district, which impacted local races in neighboring senate districts. But, we did it.
People on the southern side of the district have, perhaps, had more interaction with Erik Paulsen. Bonoff-Paulsen allows apples to apples comparisons … 2-1/2 years legislative experience to 12 years.
“1) Madia can’t beat Paulson.”
He beat Bonoff. And, Bonoff’s own poll shows he can beat Paulsen.
“2) Bonoff can beat Paulson. Look at her victory in 2005…”
Madia can beat Bonoff, see his last 10 victories over her.
“3) Terri Bonoff is an amazing candidate. Take a look at Walter Mondale’s endorsement of her on her endorsements page: http://www.terribonoff.com/endorsements”
Made before Ash had any recognition.
“4) Ash Madia used to be a republican and hasn’t explained his conversion. Does he still believe that the teacher’s union is what’s holding back education (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1996/11/04/1935.)? Does he still believe that the U of M faculty shouldn’t be allowed to unionize (http://www.mndaily.com/articles/1997/01/31/3191)? Does he still support presidential candidates like Bob Dole and John McCain who want to curtail Medicare and Social Security (see the teachers union link)? How about some answers to these questions?”
He has explained his conversion. Iraq, law school, his work, and his experiences related to LGBT issues being just a few.
“5) Madia wants to keep a ton of troops in Iraq, but keeps talking like he’s the one who will pull them out.”
He’s never claimed to be the get out of war iraq candidate. Indeed, he specifically has gone after the other candidates on this very issue.
“6) Yes, it should bother all of you that his T-Shirts are made in Honduras and printed in a non-union shop. In the recent history of our party I can’t think of one candidate who had the gall to do that. We need to hold our campaigns accountable for their behavior. This is a big deal.”
His T-Shirts were printed in a union shop.
So, is there any doubt now that Bonoff drops? Any passionate Bonoff supporter here who says she is going to take this to the convention? Or does she see the writing on the wall, and drop?
Marc? Wellstone in the Heart Foreover –you said Ash would never get the endorsement. Do you want to eat those words now?
This thing is over. My prediction Bonoff drops tomorrow.
Response to NorthbyNWDFL:
I completely agree that Terri Bonoff is a talented, young, articulate DFL candidate.
As for Ashwin being an anti-labor former Republican, Ashwin readily admits to having been a Republican before he served in the Marine Corps, and before the George W. era. But I have only heard Ashwin say positive things about labor unions and their contributions to our country.
So I read the story from the link. It was dated 1996. Ashwin was 18 years old. The article was somewhat simplistic, but also engaged, patriotic and idealistic. Certainly an interesting start for someone whose political views have evolved a lot.
Maybe instead of bashing Madia and his supporters, we could all come together and share our wisdom and experience to help him win in November.
After the last Senate District Convention in CD3, Terri has two choices:
1)Fight tooth and nail in a long shot attempt to prevent an endorsement at the CD3 Convention. If she succeeds, it will clearly show that there has been no substance to her claims to support the Democratic agenda. All along it has really all been about her personal ambition. I am a Terri Bonoff fan. I would be disillusioned to say the least if this is the path she takes. I would focus the majority of my time and treasure to making sure someone this cynical lost any primary contest held now or in any future election. I really don’t want to believe Terri will do this.
2)Find the most gracious way possible to bring the party together between now and when the CD3 Convention concludes. She has to honor the really admirable efforts of her supporters and take the high ground. Terri is a young woman. She has a bright future if she can maneuver this challenge effectively. She could leave this particular contest with a very high profile and a sterling reputation among the Democrats in Minnesota.
I really hope she does not get caught up in the ego trip of the horse race and she can step back and make the right choice.
Look at what Walter Mondale’s endorsment did for Hillary Clinton in Minnesota.
The parallels between this race and the presidential race are remarkable. Establishment woman as the early front runner, has all the St. Paul/D.C support right out the gate. Then an exciting young non-white man with a strong life story, and life experiences shakes things up. Removes the inevitable banner from her, and shortly after she goes negative and begins loosing contests.
Let’s have a little faith in the elected delegates at the congressional district level. They are the ones that are going to be doing the phone banking and door knocking. Not Walter Mondale. Not the superdelagates.
Media can win. Bonoff can win. Let the delageates choose who they want to work for in the fall.
I agree with you Redsson! Anyone have a different view -that Terri could continue…
Well, thanks for the real response… Ahem björnkram…
Anyway, my counters on the same points:
1) Bonoff does significantly better in that poll against Paulson than Madia does. There’s no reason to think that the DFL candidate will start doing better after Paulson starts attacking them.
2) This is a historic opportunity to take this seat. This means real things to the people of this country. Taking this seat means another vote for health care; another vote for education; another vote for economic growth; another vote to end the war in Iraq. I’m glad you agree that she can beat Paulson. What I don’t understand is why a lot of dems don’t seem to care. Winning is the key. We’re playing with peoples educational opportunities, with their health care, with their lives. I can not for the life of me see why we’re not picking the person who can win.
3) I wish voters were more excited about Terri, but voter excitement isn’t what we need especially in this district in the fall. The district has one of the highest voter turnouts in the nation. ALL of the Democrats will vote in CD3 regardless of who our candidate is (also, keep in mind that Obama will probably be at the top of the ticket). What we need is a DFL candidate who pulls the middle. That’s what it takes to win in CD3.
4) I’ll grant you that a conversion to DFL politics is a good thing. I’d love it if you would give me a link to something to read. I haven’t seen much evidence of his real heartfelt conversion. I’m not necissarily doubting you. But with issues like this I’d want to see some evidence and haven’t found any.
5) Start with the websites:
http://www.terribonoff.com/issues/iraq
http://www.madiaforcongress.com/issues.htm
There’s a difference. And if you find Terri’s position vague, remember that she has to win in a GOP district. Sometimes its better for the DFL agenda for a candidate not to be too specific.
6) ok, so I couldn’t find a union “bug” on the t-shirt I saw. Union shops put their union logo or “bug” on their stuff. If you don’t know what I’m talking about do a google image search for “union bug”. Also, I’ve yet to find a union shop that prints on foreign t-shirts. And again if you know something I don’t about this, give me a link.
Ok, so there you have it. My point and counter point. I’m just really sad today, and I’m disappointed in my party. And I wish this blog had bothered to give Terri a fair shake. You never wanted to and I’ll remember that when Paulson is in congress.
In response to NorthbyNWDFL’s:
“P.S. Will someone tell the Madia campaign that they can’t use campaign T-shirts made in Honduras. I looked at the t-shirts they are giving away, and they were made in Honduras. If it was a mistake, they need to throw those things away and start over. If they keep using them, I’m going to assume it was intentional.”
First off, that’s just wrong. I have 3 of these shirts in my home and there is NOTHING on them indicating that they are made in Honduras, so your claim is bunk.
Second, I’ve had about enough of this t-shirt sniping. The Madia campaign’s shirts are from a union shop and they have obviously made earnest efforts to honor unions in their campaign materials. In a globalized world, however, I’m sure very few individuals, much less campaigns, can have every single item associated with them from a pro-union, Made-in-the-U.S.A. shop. I don’t doubt that Bonoff’s campaign has served donuts or other such things out of Made-in-China plastic containers, ordered bottles of water with caps made in Mexico, etc. I’m sure the candidates wear Italian shoes from time to time as well. It’s inescapable given NAFTA and other similar trade agreements; it’s simply the state of our global economy. ALL we can do, barring changes to this economic / trade regime, is make our best, most earnest efforts.
The point is that the campaign has made earnest efforts in ordering from a union shop, and if ever there were a Honduran shirt out of that campaign, the issue was recognized and rectified, but it is 100% false that the current shirts are from Honduras, so you need to stop leveraging false claims in an effort to smear Madia.
Finally, let’s try to NOT model the national campaign’s sniping and instead focus on the real issues.
Madia has taken a strong stance on making free trade fair trade and an even stronger stance AGAINST outsourcing. He has committed to protecting our economy much more firmly than Bonoff (I’m referencing the debates as well as their public statements), so in the face of globalization, he really ought to be your candidate if stuff like this bothers you deeply!
Trolling doesn’t warrant a “real response”.
NorthbyNWDFL
So you acknowledge that Bonoff will not fight, and will concede this thing.
It’s not really trolling if you’re a DFLer and a regular reader and occasional poster on this blog, does it?
Anyone who looks at my posts with an open eye will see a sad and disgusted democrat who wishes his party would stand up and fight with candidates who can win.
trolling… thats a new one.
Lets Get Real: I have no idea, but I hope she doesn’t. March is more than a little early for demanding “for the good of the party” decisions. The convention is in APRIL. I don’t hear a drum beat on here for JNP to drop out before the state convention in June… This is so much earlier that other states decide their races. And no one outside of the DFL will be listening for months to come. For the good of your family and mine, I hope she stays in and I hope she wins.
OKAY–ENOUGH ABOUT THE SHIRTS! THE MADIA SHIRTS WERE PURCHASED FROM SEVEN CORNERS PRINT SHOP, A UNION PRINT SHOP STAFFED WITH UNION WORKERS. CHECK IT OUT.
Ashwin Madia has run a flawless campain, stayed positive and deserves the endorsement.
Ash will easily win in Novmeber!
NorthbyNWDFL sounds like a very sore loser. Time to get in the fold and support our democratic candidate!
I have to say, I think this is GREAT! Ash is going to be a great candidate for the DFL in the 3rd. Senator Obama is going to have long coat-tails, and democrats are jazzed for a fight.
Of course, the presidential nomination could go otherwise, and then we will all be in deep trouble.
Whoa.
In what world did I become a Bonoff supporter? I don’t trust her at all. Her union support is not based on her record, but on her promise to be better in Congress.
I can’t stand her and think her to be so selfisb and opportunistic that she will stay in hoping for a fumble by Ash.
This may come as a shock to some but, the only union shop that has American made shirts is All American up in Wyoming, Mn. Call around real quick and verify for yourself.
NorthbyNWDFL
What is her path to victory at this point? How can she be anything other than a spoiler? I am just curious. I am not asking this to be argumentative. I respect your passion. I just wonder if you see any conceivable way she wins this endorsement, or forces this to a primary. I don’t with the lead Ash has.
Well, he needs to get 60% for an endorsement, and I’m pretty sure that he’s not quite there (anybody have a cumulative count that includes supers?). So though I’m disappointed and worried, I’m going to hold out hope that enough of the CD 3 delegates can be persuaded to her side. I know that I’m being hopeful, but despite what southwestdem says, we don’t have a “democratic candidate” yet. What we have is one candidate who holds more of the delegates to the endorsing convention and one who (in my opinion) would be a better choice. When you have family that are under-insured and friends who have no health insurance at all, you cling to the hope that your party will do the right thing.
So that’s where I’m coming from. I know that its an uphill battle for her. I know that I may very well be disappointed, but I hope that the DFL and this blog community will hold off for the next 3 weeks and allow her to campaign for the endorsement. And (to go back to southwestdem’s post, It’s not accurate to call me a sore loser, because this isn’t a game)
I look forward to a more detailed analysis. I know that the SD41 “uncommitted” delegate was for Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer and a candidate who would seriously address Single Payer Health Care, Climate Change, Peace, Education, Economic Justice.
If you were to read, NorthbyNWDFL instead of whining and getting your hopes all up, you have been at this link, you would have been able to figure out mathematically how Bonoff will lose.
http://mnpublius.com/2008/03/cd-3-results-2/
UPDATE 8 - According to our preliminary numbers, it is no longer mathematically possible for Bonoff to overtake Madia in elected delegates. In order to overtake him in total delegates, she must win 78% of the remaining delegates. Remember, however, that it takes 60% to win the endorsement. In order to secure a first ballot endorsement, Madia would need 91% of the outstanding delegates (thats if all uncommitted went to Bonoff.) Unless Bonoff were to win the support of some elected Madia delegates, it is no longer possible for Bonoff to win a first ballot endorsement.
UPDATE 9 - SD 40 numbers are preliminary (to be clear, I classify all numbers as preliminary until I can verify the count with both campaigns).
UPDATE 10 - Numbers out of 33 are preliminary. If these numbers hold up, Madia has secured a majority on the first ballot.
I have a Madia t from Feb. 5th and it was made in
El Salvador. I do think the issue is petty.
I’m much more interested in the war, the economy,
our abuse of civil rights - domestic and foreign,
global warming, and universal health care.
I think Bonoff thought this would be handed to her
and she coasted until it was too late. She’s also
what I call a Republican Lite, which might be good
in November, but not in a Democratic Primary.
I had never heard of Madia until he called me one
night and talked issues with me as long as I wanted.
My next experience with the campaign was learning
that Bonoff did not support ending the Bush Tax Cuts.
Ball game over for me.
I’m the one who called Paul Wellstone a conservative,
so none of them are liberal enough for me except maybe
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. But I like Madia’s no fear to
tell you where he stands approach. I think his charisma,
his appeal to American’s highest ideals, and being an Iraq
war vet will wear well in November.
Bonoff’s electability poll doesn’t bother me becuase certainly
two people now in St. Paul will have more name recognition than
Madia. But this guy came out of nowhere to put her out, so he
certainly has something going for him.
So, bottom line, on April 12 I’m voting for Madia and I’m expecting
that voter excitement to carry over to November. And I believe
the independents will come. And I hope NorthbyNWDFL will join
the party.
Not to jack this thread but does anybody know who won endorsment for 19B? Dennis Sucik or Chris Brazelton? Or how about some delagate number from Bob Olson and El Tink? I cant find anything on the web
In order to win, Dems to need to think about who pulls the most independents in a General. The 3rd, by recent elections, still leans Red. My read of the numbers is that as late as 2006, which was a heavy Dem year, the bases were about 41% Republican and 35% Democrat. The Democratic candidate will need to pull over 62% of Independents to beat Paulsen.
Is that better done with a working mom to appeal to the females, or a minority veteran who will draw from the Vets and perhaps some minorities (who aren’t already committed to that Democratic 35%).
I don’t know the answer. Just putting it out there.
NorthbyNWDFL: “1) Bonoff does significantly better in that poll against Paulson than Madia does. There’s no reason to think that the DFL candidate will start doing better after Paulson starts attacking them.”
The poll shows a four-point difference between Madia and Bonoff. Paulson’s numbers range only three points. To the best of my knowledge, the Bonoff campaign has not released the margin of error for this poll, despite providing other information on the poll such as the number of respondents, dates on which the poll was conducted, how respondents were selected, and other data. Given what we do know — that the campaign chose to omit the MoE, and that the sample size is 401 — it’s hard to see how the MoE could be less than +/- 3%, which puts Madia and Paulsen in a statistical tie.
Making a claim eight months out from election day that Madia cannot win, on the basis of a poll with an undisclosed MoE and undisclosed demographic breakdown that shows both DFLers just four points apart in their matchups with the Republican candidate, is absolutely ridiculous.
I had figured that Madia can’t win the district, but Bonhoff’s poll convinced me that maybe he can.
Blogger:
What difference does it make who has the better chance. I personally think Madia does. But, it’s irrelevant. He has enough elected delegates to have this thing sewn up. Game over.
“What difference does it make who has the better chance.”
Umm, I dunno. I think it makes a big difference, actually.
‘“What difference does it make who has the better chance.â€
Umm, I dunno. I think it makes a big difference, actually.’
In regards to who gets the nomination, it doesn’t. What matters is who has the delegates. Now, obviously the selection of those delegates is probably at least partially based on electability. But from a mechanics standpoint what matters is delegates.
Thanks for the clarification, Archer. I agree. At this point, it doesn’t matter a whole lot. It looks like Madia has it unless Bonoff can work some magic between now and April.
What was taken as me trying to make a point was truly a question: In a general, where voters often make decisions on ads and the most brief of news coverage, who gets more voters: A woman, or a veteran who happens to be minority?
It doesn’t matter for April. It only matters for November. And I dare say November is more important than April.
Neither I nor probably most of the other 80 delegates
had ever heard of this guy until a couple of months ago.
Yet he has buried by nearly a 2-1 margin in elected delegates
the candidate who was being handed this nomination with about
a 20 delegates from St. Paul before the first vote was cast.
I think we can say two things about ‘08. First, there are no
incumbant nor incumbant coat tails. If anything, the incumbant
coat tails (War and Economy) should benefit us. Secondly, a
guy who can come out of nowhere to win so convincingly, probably
has the ability to overcome your demographics. There have to
be a few working mom’s in his numbers, because all the vets and
minorites won’t add up to 81.5 - 43 margin (Madia camp elected
delegate numbers).
Better chance does make a difference, but people didn’t vote for
Wellstone because they agreed with his positions, he had that
something Minnesotans like. I’m betting Madia does too.
dmc - Just for clarification, Wellstone never carried the 3rd CD or pulled more than 50% of the statewide vote, but I get your point. I’m sure there are some working moms in his numbers. I’d just love to get the breakout. Now that there will be more national money and brainpower at his disposal, I’m sure we’ll uncover those trends.
lets get real - One possible thought on Bonoff is that perhaps she thinks that she can get more of the moderate vote, and while only a fraction of the moderate vote makes it out for a SD convention, many times more would come for a primary.
Not saying I back that approach, just trying to give one possible theory since you were asking for ideas.
It’s interesting because the papers (star tribune) have this race at 81.5 to 63. Different than the this blog site. I wonder if they are not