Several weeks ago when I rounded up the possible DFL candidates for Governor in 2010, I said that House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher might be a serious contender if the 2008 session came to a successful conclusion. Well, it did and now she is.
Since session ended on Sunday, it seems like every DFLer I talk to is buzzing about a potential Kelliher candidacy. Profiles like this one in the Strib only add to the chatter:
Matched all session against a popular governor and a tenacious Senate leader known for brinksmanship, Kelliher negotiated relentlessly rocky terrain for the past 3 1/2 months.
But she emerged from the session as a newly formidable force in state politics, capable of outmaneuvering Pawlenty at key moments while dragging more militant members of her own party toward compromise.
Thats not even the best part…
That override dramatically changed the dynamic of the session, putting political observers on notice that House speaker version 2008 was sharply upgraded — faster, smoother, more adept at wielding the power available to the second-most powerful figure in state government.
Often Buddha-like in her calm, Kelliher seldom gets riled in public, but has shown a surprisingly firm hand this year with unruly members and unsuspecting opponents.
As I noted several weeks ago, the 2010 gubernatorial field is likely to be crowded with some very big names. The camps of Congressman Tim Walz, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak are all sending out signals indicating possible runs. With her impressive handling of the final days of the session, Kelliher is now firmly in that tier one list.
The Speaker brings a lot to the table as a gubernatorial candidate. Her caucus is very loyal to her and I would expect she’ll have the support of the vast majority of House DFLers. That will give her a leg up in reaching out to delegates and donors across the state. In addition, Kelliher shows a remarkable discipline in press conferences and on the stump. After the disasterous Hatch candidacy, discipline is an attractive quality in a gubernatorial candidate. One final advantage is her gender. Most of the other rumored candidates are men (Susan Gaertner and Tarryl Clark are the exceptions). DFL activists would love to nominate a woman for Governor and recent election results (McCollum, Bachmann, Klobuchar and about 40% of the legislature) show that women candidates do well in Minnesota general elections.
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Candidates can’t cry. Bakk or Atkins will eat her lunch.
I know I am very receptive to the idea of a Kelliher candidacy. I don’t see a better DFL candidate out there right now.
My one main qualification when it comes to finding a DFL candidate to support in the endorsement process will be one who is for gay marriage. The political environment and public opinion in MN will make it so that our next governor can most likely get all the gay legislation he/she wants passed with the possible exception of marriage, where I doubt we have the votes yet to do so. But by the time we get our DFL governor and it’s been a few years, I would hope majorities could be mustered and I can be married by 2014, although I gotta find a man first!
What about Sen. Tarryl Clark? The MinnPost ran a story on her last week!
I’m starting to warm up to her. She and Walz are probably the two strongest candidates but also the two that I don’t see running.
I also don’t think Coleman will take the jump after just one term with the fairly long odds against him. I think Rybak is the most likely of the major candidates and I continue to think he is the best one for the job.
Also Andrew. Rybak and Dayton are for marriage equality for sure. I think Kelliher is as well. Not sure about Coleman and I think it’s likely Walz is not.
No matter who runs we are going to have a better candidate then Hatch. Dayton is the only one mentioned who I think could run that bad of a campaign and I don’t think he will win.
So let me get this straight, when Speaker Keliher “has shown a surprisingly firm hand this year with unruly members” she gets praised. When Marty Siefert has done the same thing, he gets criticized. Once again, the Star Tribune has shown it has a double standard for DFLers.
If Keliber keeps acting like a third grade schoolmarm, talking down to her “class,” she will not be elected governor.
I love Margaret, don’t get me wrong, but until the DFL remembers that two thirds of their acronym is FARM and LABOR, they will have a hard time igniting the statewide base behind another metro politician.
This is the time for the party to put forth a rural candidate to wake up the 40 percent of us who DON’T live in the metro, rather than allowing a bunch of Highland Park activists to join their Kenwood brethren in selecting another sacrificial metropolitan.
If the democrats end up pitting the Mayor of St. Paul against the Speaker from Minneapolis, and don’t give a shot to a ranger (Tom Bakk), a farmer (Doug Peterson) or another ruralite (Tim Walz) I predict another four years of T-Paw.
Chris- Kelliher didn’t drive anyone out of the party.
There was a pretty big difference between the skillful way Kelliher quietly kept her caucus in line and the clumsy way Seifert attempted (and failed) to do so. Kelliher has actual leadership skills. Seifert is just an assclown.
That being said, Kelliher will never be governor.
I am pretty against a Coleman candidacy, too early. He has another term guaranteed to him, but after that next term, he doesnt have anywhere else to go that I can think of so hell, why become irrelevant by waiting your turn.
Dayton, no no no no. If you have to retire from the Senate because you think you are going to lose, what makes you think you will win another statewide race with a different job description? Same voters still.
Love Walz but I’d rather have that congressional seat. I really like seeing Republicans being irrelevant and by opening that seat, it automatically becomes a marquee race and if a Republican wins, that only allows them to build up power to run for other, higher offices. That is the beauty of the 2010 gubernatorial race, the GOP really has no one except from obscure state legislature people have never heard of, Pawlenty who has already done two terms, and Ramstad, who would probably win. Let’s not allow other Republicans to start down that path of higher office. But if Walz ran, and even if he isnt for gay marraige, I may still want to throw my support his way. But why give up what may be a safe house seat for him at that point for a very competitive DFL endorsement.
Kelliher, Clark, and Rybak are my faves. I guess I’m partial to a woman governor (the feminist in me) and I can definitely see Rybak being our typical metro candidate who wont connect to rural Minnesota so Clark and Kelliher are my picks, with Walz being a maybe.
I don’t know…if you think about the candidates the DFL endorsed in 2002 and 2006 for Governor, it becomes clear that this race is about honoring an alpha-male who has an incredible sense of entitlement. It’s not about leadership or about who can get elected…it’s far more basic - it’s about paying homage…kind of a how can we not show our gratitude to Moe or Hatch.. they are the party… To determine who will get the nod we need to start thinking along these lines.
I think Rybak would connect better with rural Minnesota because he is a energetic, grassroots campaigner and our past candidates have not even campaigned hard in rural areas. But I have that worry too. It’s my biggest about Rybak. Kelliher was born in a rural area so she may fare better. I just don’t see her giving up that seat.
If Clark doesn’t run for Congress then I think she will definitely be on the ticket. Either Governor or Lt. Governor. And she will be Governor some day. Maybe even higher then that.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher grew up on a dairy farm near Mankato, so the fellow 4-Hers are likely to be a big part of her grass roots movement.
This woman is one savvy leader. She knows how to preside over a legislative chamber, and her smile and her voice have more charm than Pawlenty.
Zack,
To my knowledge, the only person driven out of the party is Mark Olson. If Erhardt switches parties, it will not be because he was driven out of the party by leadership, it will be because local Republicans lost faith in his pretty liberal voting record. It just amazes me that the strib compliments Keliher for enforcing party discipline at the same time they excoriate Siefert for the same thing.
Concerning the farmer labor thing, although Margaret represents an urban district, she also has a farm background, something she manages to get inserted about in just about every profile written about her.
Congressman Walz has refuted claims he is interested in being Governor and US Senator. He is focused on being the Congressman in CD 2.
I would vote for Margaret. “… talking down to…like a schoolmarm” - interesting. And everyone can relate. Maybe that kind of projection would make lawmakers try to do their best.
The Speaker grew up on a dairy farm outside Mankato, and went to college in St. Peter. I bet she is the only top ranking official who has experience milking a cow. Not really the Minneapolis elite picture others try to paint her as.
I believe Kelliher grew up on a farm and was involved in 4-H at the State level.
But I see her as more effective in the legislative branch. She has earned my respect, but think she will find the most success in her current role as Speaker.
Rybak will never get elected statewide, and frankly I don’t know why we would want to elect him. Easily the most overrated politician in the state.
Thank god this could happen because she has a great shot at winning. Terryl Clark would also make an excellent candidate. We better find some alternatives quick though, or else we may get stuck with a dud like Dayton. He is a good man, but an aweful candidate. I really hope that we pick someone who can win the independent vote that we seem to squander in gubenetorial races. Go kelliher, go clark. And we’d better take a second look at our senate candidates as well, Al Franken is another good man, but god help us if he does not manage to win independents.
R.T. Rybak and Margaret Kelliher are rural like Mike Hatch’s elementary school time in Duluth made rural.
And we all see how well that worked.
If the DFL wants to ignore 40 percent of the party, this would be a great way to say once again that rural doesn’t matter. I’m not even saying that a ruralite has to be the nominee, but if we enter the 2010 election talking about how we have to chose from a half dozen Twin Cidiots, I know there will be a lot of people who lose interest in the whole discussion outstate.
I bet Dick Franson will run. And I think the state constitution prohibits more than one person from Minneapolis in the race per party - unless the other person is Ole Savior.
Pawlenty governs very much like a legislator, engaging in gritty negotiation with the opposition. That wasn’t Jesse Ventura’s style, they tell me. Jesse was very aloof from the process, and what happened was that the parties joined in alliance against him.
If Rybak and Kelliher are your front runners, good luck. I encourage you though to keep running flaming liberal candidates for statewide office. We love beating them every time on the issues in elections.
I am somewhat partial to a Tarryl Clark run for Governor right now. However, that doesn’t I believe Kelliher would be a bad choice because she is quite good. http://liberalinthelandofconservative.blogspot.com/2008/05/tarryl-clark-for-governor.html
You dont win on the issues, you win because we pick douche bags. If Republicans were right on the issues, you would have majorities in both state houses, both senate seats and at least a majority of Congressional seats.
I don’t know about the “douche bag” part, but we certainly haven’t chosen the candidate that will garner the widest possible support. While the Republican Party chooses moderate folks that even they aren’t real wild about we continue to find the ones that are decent progressive but force our moderates to bolt to the independents.
Sitting here today, I see Walz as the top candidate. Winning a nomination like this in a competitive field means you need A) name recognition, B) high regard across the state DFL circles and B) basic political soft skills like speaking and working a room. Having seen — some more than others — all of the names mentioned, I see Walz as having the best combination of these three. But DCCC will fight hard to keep him from running for governor.
Margaret does a good interview, but I need to see her work a room a’la Rudy Perpich before I go ga-ga. If I do, she’s my strong second. She did a great job this session and proved a lot.
Meantime, speaking as one of the token Iron Rangers in the blogosphere, expect one or more Don Quioxe runs from my neighborhood. Bakk and Rukavina are somewhat serious about running. They probably won’t both run, but the one that does will garner some union support and sit on about 20 percent of the floor vote at the 2010 convention. That’s why Walz is my top prediction right now. He’ll walk in with the 1st CD lined up and a share of every other district giving him a leg up on the Ranger (probably Bakk) and the half dozen state legislators and people named Mark Dayton.
Margaret’s best chance is to unite the Ryback, Coleman, Clark, Atkins, etc. forces behind her. She does that and Walz stays out and she’s got a clear path. It’s possible. Not likely.
If I were Walz I would run run run away from this idea of running for governor. He has a cushy seat and is getting more good press anmd feeling the longer he stays in office. Sure he would have a good chance of winning, but losing is a quick ticket to political obscurity, even for a great personality like Tim Walz. The folks who say that the twin city folks have no shot are right, for the most part. However we do have several good candidates from greater Minnesota, so let’s not fret yet.
Michael raises a good point. Walz has a great thing going, and if he ran for Guv and lost it would seriously derail his political ambitions. Mark Kennedy was an effective CD6 Congressman (whether you agree or disagree with his views, he was representing that district relatively well) and his Senate bid may have cost him a career.
Plus, we don’t know if Walz even wants to be Governor. Many would not view the Governor as a promotion from a Congressional Seat. Some, those focused on Federal policy, would see it as at best a lateral move.
Well Kennedy was also far out of Minnesota’s political mainstream and not hugely popular even in his own district.
I don’t think Walz could lose barring a major scandal and it’s Tim Walz so I doubt there is such a scandal waiting to be found.
If Walz gets in it’s his. Period. He would almost certainly clear the field of anything more then token opposition and even if Pawlenty or Ramstead ran he would be a heavy favorite in the general. He has proven he can win in a swing district. He has proven he can run a grassroots campaign so he would get better totals in the cites then Hatch. He would run better in other rural areas and I think he’d run well in the suburbs too.
With that being said. I don’t think Tim Walz wants to be governor.
Congressman Walz dang well better not give up CD-1! He’s got a great thing going there. Plus, he needs to get re-elected in CD-1 this fall and that will be his first hurdle to pass. Beyond that, the D-F-L has deserved to lose the governor elections in recent memory, because of the “Good ol’ boy” syndrome. Someone in this thread touched on it, with the “boring old guys with popular names” in 1998… Roger Moe in 2002…Hatch in ‘06. Until they get over this “good ol’ boy” syndrome the Republicans will own the Governor’s office.
First things first: if Walz is in the race it’s his nomination to lose. With that said, D.C. will be showering him with leadership posts to keep him in Congress; the odds of him running for Governor are 50/50 at best.
Without Walz we are left with several top-notch candidates like Rybak, Coleman, and perhaps Kelliher. But the problem with these folks is that they offer nothing but the DFL politics of old, which notably have not played well in a governor’s race since back in the Perpich days.
We need a renewed DFL politics, and for that we need to nominate a Paul Thissen or Steve Simon or someone of that ilk. A Thissen or Simon campaign would bring new people into the fold (read: 18-30 yeard olds that actually vote their interests) and lure the disenchanted to become reengaged (read: “independents” fed up with the DFL haplessness when it comes to state-wide policy).
I have seen the name mentioned of Jim Cohen for Governor possibly, what do you think? He’s got a great resume’ and left the Senate race with a positive demeanor. Also, he would definitely combine the outsider with experience and discipline everyone seems to be looking for in a candidate.