SurveyUSA has been testing VP tickets lately, polling matchups between Obama and McCain with various VP nominees. The potential Veeps being tested include: John Edwards, Ed Rendell, Chuck Hagel and Kathleen Sebelius for Obama and Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Joe Lieberman for McCain.
So far, Survey USA has released polling data from five states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, California and Iowa. The results have been disastrous for Pawlenty. The polls show 16 possible matchups in each state. In each state, the worst matchup for the GOP has included Pawlenty.
You might attribute these results to simple name recognition. After all, Romney, Huckabee and Lieberman all have run for President before. The Iowa results, however, tell a different story. After all, Iowa keeps a close eye on Minnesota. Much of northern Iowa is in Minnesota media markets and saw Pawlenty campaign commercials in 2002 and 2006. In Iowa, however, tickets including Pawlenty were the 10th, 11th, 12th and 16th most successful for the GOP. Moveover the best Pawlenty matchup in Iowa (vs. Obama/Rendell) still finished 4 points down. So much for Pawlenty carrying the upper Midwest for McCain.
No wonder Chuck Todd noted today that Tim Pawlenty’s VP star seems to be fading.
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So is that good or bad? Looks like Publius is trying to have it both ways. If Pawlenty is picked, he is going back on a promise, if he is NOT picked, it is a snub.
So which one is good? Typical…
As a democrat I’d love to have Pawlenty as McCain’s running mate. Because if McCain were to somehow win it wouldn’t be because Pawlenty helped him any (Minnesota is still going blue and he isn’t enough to help with other states) and we’d be rid of him. Yes, we’d have to struggle through two years of Governor Molnau, but I just hope she’d run in 2010 as she’d probably lose for sure. If McCain loses, Pawlenty’s star will be tarnished and hurt him electorally in the future.
The only thing I don’t like is if McCain wins and sets Pawlenty up for a presidential run in the future. He probably still wouldn’t win Minnesota, but I just don’t like the thought.
Pawlenty actually might be just what McCain needs since he has experience working with the opposing party being the majority in both branches of the Legislative government.
Exactly how is Gimmicky Timmy a drag on that boat anchor called the Republican Party around McSame’s neck? I suppose that having George Bush pop out of your backpocket every fifteen minutes or so is a factor too. Being older than the Golden Gate Bridge might be a factor also…
Pawlenty has been a long shot for VP. It’s much better for the state of MN to have him stay here anyway.