SurveyUSA has their latest Senate poll out and the news is not too good (but also a little odd). Lets start with the top line numbers.
Coleman - 52%
Franken - 40%
Republicans will attribute Coleman’s lead to all of the dirt they’ve thrown out about Franken in the last few weeks, but the polling does not support that conclusion. A match-up between Coleman and Ciresi shows almost identical results to the Coleman-Franken match-up:
Coleman - 50%
Ciresi - 40%
The two point difference in Coleman’s support is within the poll’s margin of error and thus statistically insignificant.
There are a few other oddities in the SurveyUSA poll’s internals. Among Black voters, Franken only leads 51% - 39%. That can’t be right. Its no doubt do to the small sample size of Black voters (they only made up 3% of the sample, or 21 people). But even if you were to give Franken 90% of the Black vote, it would only give him another 1 point in the head to head. More troubling is the regional cross-tabs. SurveyUSA has Coleman leading Franken 53% to 35% in Northeast Minnesota. I’m not sure what SurveyUSA defines as “Northeastern Minnesota,” but its got to be mostly the Iron Range and Duluth. I just don’t believe that Coleman is beating Franken up on the Range. Northeastern Minnesota makes up 14% of the sample, so this is a significant problem with this poll.
All this being said, I am not surprised to see Coleman with a lead (though I do suspect Coleman’s actual lead is a little smaller, probably in the high single digits). Its been a rough month for Franken.
One last thing worth noting. SurveyUSA polled matchups testing both Jesse Ventura and Dean Barkley. The results are pretty interesting.
Coleman - 41%
Franken - 31%
Ventura - 23%
Coleman - 48%
Franken - 37%
Barkley - 8%
Looks like the independent candidates draw equally from both candidates.
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Seems to me that Franken, the endorsed candidate who has been spending much $ and actively campaigning for months, should run much stronger against Coleman, than Ciresi who dropped out long ago after a brief low budget campaign. It looks like the dirt has had an impact or maybe Franken is just a weak candidate.
The really alarming results that my fellow DFLers aren’t willing to acknowledge are Franken’s negative numbers. At least 50% of Minnesotans have a negative impression of Al Franken.
Norm found a horseshoe up his bum 6 years ago when a memorial speech and a fever of fear and anger allowed him to beat Mondale. Who would’ve thought that he’d be a favorite to win re-election 6 months ago?
Not to put too fine a point on it but this poll says only one thing… work hard, race hard and never give up. These are snapshots in time and seen through a glass darkly. You can’t hope for a Coleman bimbo-eruption or for more photos of Coleman deep in an embrace with George W… unless you are very lucky.
You can depend on getting your word out and presenting your campaign to the people at every chance. One thing I’ve noticed is that Chameleon Norm no longer even mentions he is a Republican in his ads. That should give great pause to his Republican supporters. With his recent voting record, Conservative Republican Minnesotans are just backing a lobbyist bought empty suit who is going to throw the Republicans under the bus as soon as it is convenient. My guess is if Coleman wins, in the new Democratic run Senate he will change his stripes because that has been his history.
All that said, Franken can and will win this thing. He is correct on the issues, has a good war chest and so far the only thing the Republicans have ever said about the guy is to try and tag him with “Angry Al.” In case they haven’t noticed nationwide, after 7 years of Republican mismanagement there are lots of voters who are angry.
First of all, I don’t put much faith in polls…even ones that reinforce my agenda.
That said, I also have more faith in the integrity of my fellow Minnesotan’s than a political party that would field a candidate that appeals only to the most base instincts of the lowest common denominators among the population.
I’d like to believe that this poll reflects the general sense of disgust that follows Angry Al around like a cloud of noxious gas.
As to Ceresi, well he shot himself in the foot.
The fact that Ceresi got pantsed by Franken has, I think, a lot to do with his dismal showing. After all, if he can’t stand up to an world class bufoon, how could he be trusted to stand up at all?
In an election year that should allow the Democrat party to win easily, the DFL decided to test the theory that everyone in the state is as batsh*t crazy as those in the 5th CD…happily, that’s not the case.
Although Ciresi is still 10 points behind, let’s remember that he hasn’t been campaigning for the last 4 months. If he had been, I think his numbers would have been higher.
At this point, I don’t think it’s worth discussing Mike Ciresi as a replacement. It’s too late for him.
Seeing how Ciresi, doing absolutely nothing, runs better than Franken, who is campaigning full time, it certainly isn’t too late to switch. I just isn’t going to happen. The only way Ciresi is going to run is if Franken drops out, and Franken is only going to drop out if he is badly wounded by another scandal.
Hhhmmmm…Minnesota’s 5th congressional district. They have elected only DFL candidates to Congress since 1962. That is before most of the Republicans on this board were born.
In 2006 Martin Olav Sabo, who retired after successfully serving the district for 28 years was succeeded by former State Rep. Keith Ellison. Congressman Ellison is the first person of the Muslim faith to be elected to Congress in the history of the United States. We are both loyal and historic.
How exactly does that qualify for anything but the strongest, most stalwart DFL political unit in the state? I will also mention that this years GOTV campaign is going to blow the doors off the Republicans. Got any idea of how many registered Democratic voters there are in the district Swiftee? Well by November there are going to be lots more.
Them that gots the votes gets the office…
Taking on both Franken and Coleman would be huge tasks for Ciresi because he hasn’t proven the ability to inspire the base. That would require him to finance such a run. He has the money and so does Kelly Doran, but would they want to spend their fortunes on a long-shot bid? I don’t know if there is a candidate that could pull it off in less than five months- maybe Alan Page or David Wellstone.
amusenic, I want you to re-read swiftee’s comment, think about what he is trying to say, and then try again.
It isn’t that hard to understand… to him the Fifth is batshit crazy… mostly because they vote Democratic. This is news that a Republican buffoon (correct spelling) thinks it an insult to associate Franken with CD5? For both of them from his tone.
Sorry but if there is more depth than that I don’t see it… Al Franken won an endorsement from the statewide party… from Warroad to Albert Lea… not just the extreme left of the party. Mike Cerisi is a moot point right now… or actually at the point I noticed 2 Cerisi supporters out of 250 people at my caucus his campaign looked to be over. Equal split between Franken and JNP. Liberal South Minneapolis goes liberal… will wonders ever cease.
It is only Republicans who think Al Franken is anything more than a Minnesota moderate who is just left of center, just ask any JNP supporter for the real lefts candidate. Hell you want a laugh ask a Southern or Western Republican of what they think of Minnesota Republicans.
I liked amuseinc’s response. As TFRWG might say:
Agree 100%
“Among Black voters, Franken only leads 51% - 39%. That can’t be right.”
No way. Black voters obviously don’t think for themselves, nor would they be offended by jokes about raping or drugging women. Nice commentary, Zack.
we must do everything we can to draft tim walz to run for senate. al is clearly the second coming of mike hatch. sorry al fan’s, being star struck is not a reason to deny the obvious that franken won’t win. i would hate to see the democrats give up a seat in the senate in such an easy win year simply because out of touch dfl activists can’t admit they have chosen a bad horse in the race.
Ciresi gets back in if the party asks him to, and the party will not ask him to. Franken is such a conceited SOB that he’d never drop out, no matter what happened to him. So really, there is no way anything is going to change. It’s Franken v. Coleman for the next five months, and as soon as the primary filing deadline passes in July, it’s on.
I expect that at that point amuseinc, west metro dem, and TwoPutt will knock on as many doors for Al as possible and stop posting so much on the blogs.
After Franken loses the election, how long do you think it will take him to move back to New York?
I bet that the furniture will be on it’s way East by September; the contents of the sock drawers by Oct.
mnpolwatcher:
It’s funny that everyone talks about jokes involving raping women. There were no jokes performed involving that. There were brainstorming sessions for jokes for SNL, that involved some material like that. It’s a little different. If the idea for a joke had been about murder (which, there have been plenty on SNL actually performed), I don’t think that we could get way with calling Al homicidal. It’s just easy to call him sexist, because it’s impossible to prove one way or another.
I think it says a lot about both candidates when Ventura gets a large chunk of the vote without even being in the race. It really shows that both Franken and Coleman are poor candidates. It will be an interesting race, nonetheless!
1) Ciresi has sworn to abide by the endorsement
2) SUSA has sucked this season.
3) Franken won’t go back to NY.
4) Walz won’t abandon his campaign and district to run for senate against an endorsed democrat.
5) Did I mention SUSA has absolutely sucked this season?
1) Franken has sucked this season.
2) Did I mention that Franken has absolutely sucked this season?
If Coleman gets re-elected in Minnesota, we all deserve every ounce of his incompetence and ditto-headed, power-hungry decision making capability. He is a total sycophant, who occasionally exhibits the ability to think for himself. A good legislator, who actually looks out for the WHOLE constituency he serves, ALWAYS thinks for himself. We need some new blood in that seat, even if we don’t all love who it is.
From Rasmussen, just last week:
Election 2008: Minnesota Senate
Minnesota Senate: Coleman 48% Franken 45%, Ventura a Wild Card
Friday, June 13, 2008 Email to a Friend
The recent flare-up over an old article Democratic nominee Al Franken wrote for Playboy magazine has had little impact on the Minnesota Senate race, with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman holding on to a narrow 48% to 45% lead.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_senate
OK, last Friday, Rasmussen says Coleman “narrow lead”, but somehow, according to Survey USA (after the weekend), Coleman’s blown the doors off and is now stomping Franken.
Just another one of those things that makes one go: “hmmmmm…..wassup with that??!?”
I posted on myDD a take down of the two polls without checking here first. It is good to see my reasoning is backed up by people with better political minds than myself.
Danno,
I’m not saying Al Franken is sexist. I’m saying his proposed skits about rape, his jokes about drugging women, his comments that the only people who like getting abortions are rape victims, his joke that “no one like a gay-bashing joke better than (Al),” his satire about phone sex with Asian women and his reference to Republicans as “right wing mother fu$*ers” and “shameless dic*ks” are offensive and a few reasons why Al Franken isn’t the strongest candidate for the DFL this year.
While you have a point about the autodialing methodology of Survey USA, and the small sample size for the African American voters, the numbers for African American voters for Norm Coleman are not surprising. Remember he did reach out to minority communities during both his runs for Mayor. (Part of the way he did that was by hyping up the anti-gay card).