Are you getting tired of that headline? Cause I’m not.
According to a Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com poll released this morning, Barack Obama has a 17 point lead in Minnesota:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 37%
Those are Klobucharesque numbers!
The poll was conducted from June 17-24. 1,572 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percen.
Looks like that $150,000 McCain is spending in Minnesota is really paying off….
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Other than Presidential Elections, political trends in Minnesota make absolutely no sense. The GOP sweep (other than AG) in 2002, to throwing all the bums out except Pawlenty (thanks Republican $%@! comment and E85 slip) in 2006.
The best proof of my thesis could be Obama winning in November by 17% and Franken losing by 17%. Or even a Jesse Ventura comeback. Is there another state so politically volatile?
In response to AK — I think you’re right on the money because Minnesotans, at least in the last few cycles, seem much more concerned with personal qualities and characteristics than with political party markers.
Look at question 2a; Coleman has 92% of the GOPers while Franken only has 76% of the DFL vote - and a whopping 17% of DFL responding saying they’ll vote for Coleman. That will change.
Question 12 is “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?” and 32% of the GOPers disapprove. For a guy that was Boy Blunder’s Cheerleader, that does NOT bode well.
Question 13 is: “In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? ” and 59% say dissatisfied - 42% somewhat, 17% very.
The bottom line is that all the attacks at Franken, when he didn’t have the endorsement and the DFL and the DSCC, etc couldn’t help him, and ol’ Smokescreen is only at 51% and with the above noted shows how much trouble Coleman is in.
Coleman in trouble? Al’s negatives are too high for him to be in trouble. My fellow DFLers can are doing a fine job spinning the polls, but the one topic they are in denial about and refusing to address are Franken’s negative numbers. I don’t think it’s possible for him to win when 50+% of the electorate doesn’t like you.
The only way Coleman is in trouble is if Ventura enters the race or if Alan Page, David Wellstone, or even Arne Carlson challenges Al in the primary.
AK, you got a link to those negatives? How ‘bout a link to where it says 50+% don’t like Franken?
I’d like to look at that data.
Here’s one from the June 11th Rassmussen Poll: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_senate
@AK
COleman’s and Franken’s negatives are within the MOE. Please, stop with the unsubstantiated anti-franken spin.
<em<”I don’t think it’s possible for him to win when 50+% of the electorate doesn’t like you. “
OK, AK - were you taling about Franken, or Coleman? From your link:
***
Franken’s favorability ratings have changed very little. Viewed unfavorably by 49% last month, the new survey finds 50% of voters feel that way now. Forty-six percent (46%) regard the Democrat favorably, as opposed to 47% last month.
Coleman is viewed favorably by 51%, up from 49% last month. Forty-five percent (45%) view him unfavorably, a drop of four percent since the previous survey. ***
My point is that it’s going to be tough/impossible for Franken to cut into Coleman’s lead with those negatives. The polls shows 50% with only 4% without an opinion.
My point is that it’s going to tough/impossible for Coleman to hold his lead with his negatives. The polls had ol’ Smokescreen at 49% negative with only 3% without an opinion, just a month ago.