MinnPost reported on Friday that Rep. Nick Rahall thinks our own Rep. Jim Oberstar might be in line to be Transportation Secretary if Barack Obama is elected President this fall. One thing to keep in mind is that Rahall is in line to become Chairman of the Transportation Committee if/when Oberstar leaves the House, but that bias isn’t going to stop us from speculating about what would happen up in the 8th if Oberstar got the nod.
Anytime there is news up on the Range, we look to Aaron Brown, who reminds us of a few important facts:
1) It would be a special election held after, if Obama wins, what would have been a strong Democratic year. That means the Democrats have to switch from offense to defense, where we should expect a little rust after 8 years of yelling “no blood for oil” at poetry slams. Also, special elections have different voting patterns that are harder to predict. This mix of factors will make the race unpredictable. The more candidates and money, the more unpredictable it would become.
2) The 8th goes 65-35 for Oberstar because of Oberstar, not necessarily because it’s liberal. Famously, Rod Grams carried the district in 1994 against Ann Wynia. Yes, it’s solid DFL, but the wrong candidate makes it a toss up.
3) This seat is usually considered to be the “Iron Range/Duluth” seat, but the district’s population base has shifted to the south. This area, and its potential candidate(s) will be a big factor in any endorsement/primary situation.
4) Oberstar will want to be comfortable with his successor.
5) Oberstar dominates, in part, because he can always point to specific transportation projects that he delivered to the district and state. Everyone loves roads. What will be the next candidate(s) hook as they make their pitch for votes? Remember, the winner becomes #435 in House seniority, which means an office in the janitor’s closet and a chief of staff who couldn’t get a job with the other 434 members.
6) Most insiders know that Minnesota will probably lose a Congressional district in 2012 after the 2010 census. This means that if someone succeeds Oberstar before ‘12, they may face a tough situation if their district is combined with that of an entrenched incumbent or ideologically differing voters.
So who would be the DFL candidate? Two names jump to mind immeadiatley: House Majority Leader Tony Sertich and Duluth Mayor Don Ness. Sertich has long been thought to be Oberstar’s heir up on the 8th while Ness was Oberstar’s campaign manager for years. We’re big fans of both men here at MN Publius (some will remember that Sertich guest posted on our site during the 2008 session) and I think either of them would have little difficulty keeping the 8th CD blue.
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Ness kind of has his hands full with all the crap going on Duluth right now. I think Sertich is our guy. But, like the 5th CD race in 06, I think a lot of lesser candidates would throw their names in as well.
That would be a very interesting race. Ness would seem the favorite beacuse of his connections to Oberstar but as George points out he has a lot of work yet to do in Duluth.
Let me just say this. I would much rather Sertich or Ness then old timers like Bakk or Rukavina.
Sertich would be just excellent.
And that would be one big congrats to Oberstar! We’ve always had such a long history of excellent Minnesota DFL politicians getting very high up the political ladder.
Just a thought, but has anyone considered one of the Oberstar staffers as possible successors to the seat? That’s how Oberstar got picked in the first place.
There ties to the district might not be as strong as people like Sertich or Ness, but a JLO endorsement to a Bill Richard, Chip Gardner or Marianne Buckley might make up for that…
Well. Ness was kind of a Oberstar staffer.
That would definitely be a possibility. But even with a Oberstar endorsement they would start out a underdog. All of the names that have been mentioned would start out with very formidable bases of support.
Well, the cabinet needs some serious rebuilding after the state it’s become in 7 years in the bush.
Who better than Mr. Transportation to be Transport Secretary?
I think a lot of the new cabinet members may come from the Senate, but why not Oberstar, and hey, why not Collin Peterson for Agriculture Secretary?
Sertich seems a good prospect for MN8 if the seat becomes available.