Some Loose Ends And My Prediction

Just wanted to wrap up some loose ends before the convention.  I will be a delegate and I will be voting.  I’d like to preface all of this with, these are my personal endorsements, and mine alone, they do not reflect the views of the other writers at MNPublius.

I am supporting Rick Stafford and Bill Davis for male DNC members, I think they will be running unopposed, but if they weren’t I would still be voting for Rick and Bill.  There are few better mentors, activists and people than Rick Stafford.  From before my time as chair of MYDFL Rick has helped me navigate the DFL party apparatus and work with campaigns without preconditions.  There are few people I hold in higher regard than Rick Stafford, his commitment to the party, its candidates and its causes is complete and he deserves another term representing the Democrats of Minnesota at the DNC.  Bill Davis is one of the people who has brought me to the dance, and as they say, you dance with the one that brung ya.  From my very first caucus in 2004 Bill Davis has been a steady hand and mentor whose advice and support has helped me many many times.  He is one of the smartest and hardest working guys in the DFL and he’ll continue our recent tradition of having amazing advocates for us in the DNC.

I’m supporting Betsy O’Berry for female DNC member, again there have been few people who have given me more support than Betsy O’Berry.  She’s got a first rate mind for money and finances and has been a great help to the DFL party in those areas.  There are two other candidates for female DNC members, Nancy Larson who is currently serving as a DNC member and Luchelle Stevens who is a union organizer and a colleague of mine as a DFL director.  I haven’t decided who I am going to cast my other vote for.

This will probably come as no surprise but, I am going to vote to endorse Al Franken.  Franken hasn’t been a perfect candidate but he has the organization and the money to bring force to bear on Norm Coleman that JNP can’t.

And my prediction Al Franken in one ballot, or Al Franken in four.  A bit of a punt?  Maybe.  If the numbers that came out of Senate Districts hold Al Franken will win the endorsement in one ballot.  The Pallmeyer campaign has said that they have been switching delegates from Franken to their side, I’m not sure how much stock to put into that but figuring they have enough support to block the nomination I don’t think they will have a majority and JNP’s campaign hasn’t shown the organizational ability to turn a close floor fight around — I think it’ll take a few ballots in that scenario but Franken in four.

21 Responses to “Some Loose Ends And My Prediction”


  • I agree with you about JNP’s organization. I’ll be voting for him, but I have to say that for a campaign that’s focused on the grassroots and that has so little money, JNP has done a surprisingly bad job with the sort of floor politics that could help him gain an advantage.

  • Ah, grasshoppers, watch and learn.

  • The Venerable Bede

    Hey Sean, I really admire you and the work you do here at MNpublius. I hope I get a chance to meet you this weekend and my votes are going to pretty much mirror yours.

    So if a guy with drool on his chin and a vacant, glassy stare approaches you on the floor, it’s not an undercover GOP operative who got past the Sargeant at Arms, it’s me.

  • Jeff, don’t worry a minute about Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer’s organization. To some extent, all campaigns have some missteps and even chaos. Since you are a Jack supporter, I would ask you to just step up and fill any holes you see. That how grassroots works.

    And like Spotty says….

  • Franken on the 1st ballot- no way! Al flirted with getting 50% of the delegates, and he never made it to the magic 60%. Since then Al’s support has been hemoraging while Jack has picked up the uncommitteds. Both Al and Jack should be over 40% on the first ballot, giving Al enough support to block an endorsemnet and outspend Jack in the primary.

    That assumes a third candidate doesn’t reenter the race- rumor has it that Mike Ciresi’s name will be put in nomination. I suspect most all of the Ciresi delegates that went over to Franken will come back, while many disillusioned Franken delegates will support Mike. I’d expect a three way race to last the full 5 ballots before the drop rule takes effect, and after that it becomes a three way race between the two surviving candidates and “no endorsement”.

    BTW, Charley- Will Jack’s campaign have radios? I’ll get the batteries charged up on mine!

  • Are convention proceedings viewable online? where and when can a person watch the senate endorsement votes?

  • I think The Uptake is going to try to do live video
     http://theuptake.org/?cat=32

    I think MPR - KNOW 91.1 is doing live audio.

    Grasshoppers, ladybugs, and chickadees: I think Jack will get it in 3.

  • Sean, I wanted to give you my perspective on the female end of the DNC elections. I feel the same way about Nancy Larson that you feel about Bill Davis and Rick Stafford. She invited me to my first DFL Party event at age thirteen and has encouraged me, supported me and challenged me to become more involved in the party. I have worked on two statewide races, numerous local races and currently serve the DFL Caucus as a staffer. It all started with her invitation. I think she understands that the party needs to be constantly re-energized, which is needed in rural MN.

  • Franken, first ballot.

  • Prediction: If Franken doesn’t get it on the first ballot or come very close on the first ballot (i.e. 58 percent) then Pallmeyer will get the endorsement.

    Mnpublius guys, are you going to be liveblogging this?

  • Sean, thank you for telling us who you will support for obscure DFL positions. My support for your candidates will be in direct proportion to the respect I have for you.

  • Franken’s strategy is not to win an endorsement, but to block an endorsement of someone else. As long as he can hang on to 40% of the delegates he can survive to run in the primary.

  • Without a nominee Smiling Norm the Weasel will order another case or two of champagne from a lobbyist and just keep on keeping on. Thanks Cerisis, thanks Planned Parenthood… should he send over a case of champagne to Representative McCollum or would that be too much?

    Franken takes it to a primary and JNP and Cerisi are still toast. Neither has the media dollars, or rather one doesn’t have the money and the other isn’t going to spend his money to take Al on in the primary. The smart thing for Al to do is use his Primary ads to attack Coleman and ignore JNP or any other new/old entrant.

    I would prefer a Franken nomination, but if it goes to the primary he will still get the nod. The only difference will be that JNP supporters who feel the race has been unfair up to now, will have an actual real live gripe over the dollars needed to compete. I don’t think that Planned Parenthood is willing to put its’ money into the race against Al… at least I hope they are not that stupid. Perhaps McCollum has a deep list of contributors to go up against Al?

  • “Planned Parenthood understands that Minnesotans evaluate our political candidates based on their record, values and character. It is appalling that anyone could characterize rape, a violent and horrible crime, as a joke,” said Congresswoman Betty McCollum

    http://blogs.twincities.com/politics/2008/06/frankens_day_got_worse.html

    Just for the sake of argument, do you its possible that this isn’t politically driven, and that finding that jokes about drugging and raping women are offensive is a legitimate position?

  • George — 

    I would hardly describe the DNC — the governing body of the National Democratic party an obscure position.

    They are going to be the ones who decide how to make sure that a mess like we had this year never happens again.

    But, thanks for commenting.

    Sean

  • Why are there separate men’s DNC and women’s DNC positions?

  • There are two male delegates to the DNC from MN and two female delegates to the DNC.

    Sean

  • Why are there separate men’s DNC and women’s DNC positions?

  • Sean Broom is a god (well at least a demigod).

  • Great going Sean - AL all the way!

    And kick McCollum for me, would ya?

  • Spotty, Dyna, Charley?

    How did those lessons go, grasshoppers?

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