MNpublius.com

SurveyUSA just released their Vice-Presidential test match-ups for Minnesota, and the results should be very encouraging to DFLers.  To begin with, the top line results show a 47-42 Obama lead.  That’s narrower than other recent poll have suggested, but given the divisive turn the nomination contest has taken in recent weeks, not bad at all.

Here are the numbers you are all really interested in; how Pawlenty’s addition to the ticket changes the race:

McCain-Pawlenty 44%
Obama-Sebelius 39%

McCain-Pawlenty 46%
Obama - Rendell 38%

McCain-Pawlenty 44%
Obama-Hagel 39%

McCain-Pawlenty 42%
Obama-Edwards 49%

Pawlenty helps McCain pick up 2, 4, 2 and 0 points, respectivley, for an average boost of 2 points.  In addition, Pawlenty’s addition drops Obama’s support by 8, 9, 8 and -2 respectivley, making the average drop just over 6 points.  This poll confirms what I have written many times, Pawlenty would help McCain in Minnesota, but he wouldn’t deliver the state.

Much of the Pawlenty boost, however, appears to be due to name recognition.  Sebelius, Hagel and Rendell have minimal name recognition in Minnesota.  But John Edwards is well known in Minnesota, due to his two Presidential campaigns and his Vice Presidential candidacy in 2004.  Only when he is paired with Edwards is Obama is he sharing a ticket with someone who has a similarly high level of name recognition as Pawlenty.  Not suprisingly, Obama does much better in this match-up than in any of the others. In fact, Obama actually broadens his lead over McCain-Pawlenty when adding Edwards (though only by a statistically insignificant 2 points).  Of course, whoever Obama does pick to share his ticket will have universal name recognition in Minnesota by the time Election Day rolls around.

Bottom line: This poll seems to indicate that if Obama’s running mate is well known, Pawlenty’s impact is minimal.