SurveyUSA just released a Presidential poll of Minnesota. Here is the top line:
Obama - 47%
McCain - 46%
I don’t buy it. Let me be blunt: I know of no political professional, Republican or Democrat, who believes the Presidential race is this close in Minnesota. No other poll has shown this race anywhere near this close for several months. A Rasmussen poll released just last week had Obama up 13 (that result was in line with several other recent polls). What on earth could have cause a 12 point swing in a week? Nothing. I am beginning to think there is something wrong with SurveyUSA’s Minnesota polls. The company has pretty good track record overall, but sometimes pollsters just screw up a state (see the New Hampshire Democratic primary). This has got to be the case here. Earlier today, I noted that SurveyUSA’s poll of the Senate race had some internals that didn’t pass the smell test. This looks like more of the same. SurveyUSA has Obama and McCain tied among voters aged 18-34. That can’t be right.
One piece of the puzzle is probably that SurveyUSA is an auto-dialer pollster. They don’t have real people interviewing their respondants, they use robo calls. Of course, the automated call has no ability to tell if the person who answered the phone is really a 10 year old or the gardner or the dog.
In any case, until SurveyUSA’s Minnesota polls start showing similar results to other statewide polls, I will assume there is a flaw in their methodology and take their results with the appropriate grain of salt.
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The only poll you should not take with a grain of salt occurs in November and is binding. Even then if Republicans are in charge you have a right to question the methodology. Actually if Republicans are doing the counting you have to question the methodology.
With the robocalls deal add the question of landline young folk versus mobil phone young folk. Sample size and population equality between rural and urban needs to be there.
This just doesn’t seem to be accurate to what I am seeing just from looking at car bumpers. I have yet to see a single McCain bumper sticker within the city limits of Minneapolis. I haven’t seen one in any of the suburbs I’ve been to or in St. Paul. I suppose if I visited Fairbault or Thief River I might see more. In fact, I’ve seen more Kerry/Edwards stickers around than any Republican candidates this cycle.
Okay, the biggest problem with this poll is that among those in the survey, 30% were republican, 30% were independent, and 35% were democrats. Sorry guys.. That’s just not the make-up of the Minnesota voters.
Survey USA has a pretty good track record — I believe its Minnesita polling in 2006 was quite accurate, and I think I read that its 2008 Dem Presidential Primary polling was the most-accurate in the nation — so I wouldn’t dimiss this poll just because it is different than the Rasmussen polls.
The reality is that the presidential contests in Minnesota have been very close the past two elections…Gore by 2.4 percent in 2000 and Kerry by 3.4 in 2004. This year, while there is no question that Obama is the strong favorite to win Minnesota, it will be close again. John McCain certainly has as good of a chance, if not a better chance, to carry Minnesota than George Bush did in 2000 and 2004.
While partisan Dem bloggers may see Obama as rock star, folks in Greater Minnesota and the outer Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs have a very different opinion.
Zack,
Your logic is similar to that of the Pauline Kael quote that is often cited as an example of clueless liberal insularity when she said she “couldn’t believe Nixon had won,” since no one she knew had voted for him.
Speaking as a conservative I would have to agree with the premise of the bloggers post! My guess is that Obama is ahead by about 9 points and that is likely what he’ll win by in November. Though, look for Coleman to boost McCain somewhat this fall.
Prediction:
Obama
Coleman
Walz
Kline
Madia
McCollum
Ellison
Bachmann
Peterson Oberstar
SUSA has absolutely sucked this season. Please apply this opinion to the post below too. kthxbai.
“This just doesn’t seem to be accurate to what I am seeing just from looking at car bumpers.”
AlGore could use a guy like you on the global warming lecture circuit…not much money in it, but if you play your cards right there might be a Nobel for you at the end of the year. Pffft.
Console yourself with that old saw, Log Cabin, if it gives you comfort. I’m out in a pretty conservative part of rural Minnesota and I have yet to see a McCain sticker in the WalMart parking lot. Obama? You betcha.
Log Cabin -
Actually, my opinion is based on three things:
1) the internals of this poll
2) other polls
3) the opinions of other professionals both Democratic and Republican
Ain’t nothing insular about that.
Gipper: I agree with your predictions right now. That being said, there’s a lot of time between now and November for movement in either direction…
Zack, I stand by my statement. I’m not saying McCain’s guaranteed to win Minnesota, but the idea a candidate like him couldn’t be close in a state like this is an insular view. I’m curious to know what “Republican Professionals” gave you that insight.
Ollie, Really? You’re basing your opinions on bumper stickers at wal-mart? Wow. That statement is so obtuse I don’t even know how to respond to it. Stick with that argument though. I’m sure all Zack’s Democratic and “Republican Professional” friends will agree with that logic.
Log Cabin -
Well, you could start with the McCain campaign, which did not include Minnesota in their most recent list of swing states.
I’m surprised at all the smart political types missing the apperent wisdom of bumperstickers. Any smart resort owners pays attention to the states on the license plates of his parking-lot. Every smart ad guy shows his work to his mother in law just to see if she gets it. The fact is that it is an expression of the zeitgest of the moment, the passion of the supporters and well lots of indicators. It is as accurate as the entrails of a chicken called robocall polls. Rest assured that every bumpersticker represents a person working at convincing everyone around them of their “rightness.” The lack of McCain stickers shows a great lack of enthusiasm in the candidate.
“The lack of McCain stickers shows a great lack of enthusiasm in the candidate.”
Yeah sure, that’s it…
Either that, or Obama supporters have an easier time slapping yet another assinine sticker on the the stack that they started when they bought that rust riddled ‘77 Volvo in ‘82, than a McCain supporter does sticking anything on their two year old Chev.
Using robocalls for what purports to be a scientific poll is not much better than a point and click internet poll. Survey USA has been the most frequently wrong throughout the primary season, often 10- 20 points away from reality.
Polling is part art, part science, but using machines to interview people is a way to call yourself a pollster on the cheap - you’ll eventually get caught cause you’ll be off by the biggest margins.
By the way Swiftee, what do you drive?
Swiftee you have to get out more… which is it are Democrats rich limousine liberals who have so much money they don’t care about taxes or are they poor granola chomping hippies in ancient Volvos? You need to get your prejudices straight to keep your pseudo-arguments straight.
I’d believe there was more enthusiasm for McCain if I saw just one bumpersticker somewhere in my travels. So far I’ve seen more unicorns than Republican’s supporting McCain visually.
I’ll make sure to mention the make, model and year of the first McCain sticker I see… as a persons vehicle seems very important to you. Just a wild guess but I doubt it will be a Chevy or Ford… more apt a Kia or Toyota, gun-rack optional.
Swiftee, I agree 100%,
These cliche images you paint help take moonbats down so very well. Nobody is tired of hearing them.
They make Republicans like us feel superior to anyone who disagrees with our opinions.
Keep spreading discontent on the internet and sending “Leftists” to the third ring of hell, as you like to say. Your fellow Republicans need people like you to keep doing that as much as possible from now until November, when we continue voting in our permanent Republican majority.
Lordy, lordy, do we have the vapors today! So…..much……outrage!
Great Job!
Zack,
Not a swing state for McCain’s folks? I think his campaign would disagree.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/19961904.html?location_refer=urlTrackSectionName
There’s too many quotes in there that indicate McCain’s campaign does indeed have MN on their swing list to paste a single one.
By the way, McCain will be in town Thursday. Oh, and I don’t know if you heard, but the Republican National Convention will be here in September. Though I guess that presence wouldn’t effect the nominees #s here in Minny because we haven’t seen any bumper stickers. Everyone loves bumper stickers.
McCain has had his ads on the air here in MN - and I haven’t seen Obama’s ads. McCain’s ads have been on regular TV, not just the news shows.
You know I went to the real clear politics website and I started looking at their polls. It seems like in virtually everyone of their polls it gives Obama a bigger margin than he gets.
So if you want to use the logic that most of their polls favors Obama this is very bad news. You’re arguing this poll helped Mccain and made him look good when the trends this year is that they aide Obama.
Furthermore I think there are more than 30% of the state is Republican so our number is low. And keep in mind your Obama has been behaving crazy like finally leaving the church after defending it. Why is that important? Obama today on the radio said you should have a debate between Mccain in 2000 and 2008.
People are looking at the debate between Obama in 2008 and Obama in 2008 and are coming to their senses.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Walter Hanson, I agree 100%,
Just wait until Obama gets to debate John McCain 2008. Everybody knows Barack Obama will get completely destroyed by the dynamic, bold, strong message and debate prowess that is John McCain 2008.
Thank you for taking down moonbats so well.
Great Job!
I’m pretty sure the Obama sticker comes standard on the 2008 Prius.
Dan its one of the best selling cars since the Ford Model T. The most popular car out there? That’s only good news for Obama.
Walter, 30% is a high number. You may not be aware but your party thanks to its President has to look up to see 30% and the poll is very generous to Republicans.
Sean or Zack, do you have the Super Tuesday Caucus numbers again for Minnesota? We had a contested race on both sides. Look at the turnout for the DFL versus that of the GOP in Minnesota. Four times as much? That’s just the base.
Much like every single prediction you made eighteen months ago, you will be wrong on this one again.
The good news for you is that as a state employee, your job and health benefits will be safe because Democrats value public service and the middle class.
Marc:
The Republican party is the party that value public service and the middle class. The Democrats solution to high energy prices is not to drill for oil, not to make new nuclear and coal plants even though we have plenty of those sources of power and France is 78% nuclear. Their solution is to sue OPEC and try to impose windfall profit taxes which if you folks weren’t aware was tried in the late 1970’s under Carter. That wound up getting us gas lines that took an hour or longer to get gas on days which your licene plate determined if you could drive up and get gas.
If you call that supporting the middle class I wonder what you call war on the middle class!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Walter Hanson, Minneapolis, MN, I agree 100%,
Everyone knows the first thing Ronald Reagan did was remove the windfall profits tax, after he took down the solar panels off the White House.
Did you hear the oil we would be drilling for here in the off the coasts or in Alaska won’t be on the market for 8 years or so?
Also, did you hear that Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total, and BP are getting no bid contracts to handle oil from Iraq? Plans for production would start as soon as they seal the deal June 30. Just wondering.
The solution is already decided. We get the oil from Iraq.
So why get the vapors? I can answer that for you. We Republicans have the vapors because some people disagree with our opinions.
Thank you for taking down these moonbats so well, Walter Hanson Minneapolis, MN.
Great Job!
” Hey, did ya hear France built a superfast new tank that has 10 speeds? 1 forward, and 9 in reverse!!!”
Why, Walter, you little RINO, you!!!
“…and France is 78% nuclear.”
Walter, you’re gonna get kicked out of the GreedOverPrinciples party for using “The Country of Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys (who’s primary exports are white flags)” as a role model to emulate!!!
You must have forgotten one o’ the republiCon party’s favorite jokes:
“Raise your right hand if you like the French…. Raise both hands if you are French….”