In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the 7th Congressional District. CD7, home to Democratic Representative Collin Peterson, tends to be quite moderate. Peterson turned the district bluer with his election in 1990, and was a founding member of the Blue Dog Democrats, a moderate group which describes itself as:
a policy-oriented group to give moderate and conservative Democrats in the House of Representatives a common sense, bridge-building voice within the institution.
The district voted largely Democratic in 2006. Approximately half of the precincts voted over 60% Democratic, but about one third voted Republican.
However, nothing is guaranteed in the 7th, where voters are far more likely to split their tickets than the typical Minnesotan. Volatility is a measure of variation across races, and precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters.
The volatility map (below, at left) below shows that almost the entire district is full of voters willing to cross party lines. In 2006, the district voted 56% for Amy Klobuchar, but 54% for Tim Pawlenty. This has long been a safe seat for Peterson; the question will be how Al Franken fares with the volatile CD7 voters. In the more socially-conservative 7th, Franken must persuade voters to focus on his fiscal policies. CD7 readers, what do you think: will the 7th swing for Franken or against him?
Turnout in the district is fair; it falls pretty much in the middle of the state’s districts in turnout as well as ideology. The turnout map (above, at right) shows pockets of both heavy and light turnout scattered throughout the district. Of course, when it’s uncertain which Senate candidate the district will vote for, it’s hard to say whether this bodes well for Franken. His best bet would be a good internal polling mechanism to determine which precincts need to see a big get-out-the-vote effort.
The final map shows the combined effect of turnout and party preference. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party.
This map shows that turnout is somewhat higher in Democratic-leaning precincts. There are at least a handful of precincts where high percentages of eligible voters voted Democratic. In 2006, turnout worked to the Democrats’ advantage. Whether it will work to Al Franken’s advantage like it did to Amy Klobuchar’s remains to be seen. Maximizing gains in the 7th will require a very savvy field operation by the Franken campaign to isolate its strongest precincts and drive turnout there.
well where do I start. Well lets keep it simple. YOU HAVE THE WRONG MAP OF THE 7TH CD. IT GOES ALL THE WAY TO REDWOOD COUNTY. YOU HAVE A OLD MAP.
Thank-you
TRS
As someone who lived in the 7th CD for a number of years (Moorhead and St Cloud when it was in CD7), I’ll agree w/the volatility angle. They are notorious ticket splitters. What bothers me is how Rep Peterson gets criticized for being too much of a Blue Dog. Well, if he was not, he might not be able to hold that seat, and in a era where the balance of power can shift very quickly in the House, it is nice to have someone who will be a vote for our choice for Speaker of the House, etc. Not every Dem can have the same ideological makeup.