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John McCain’s announcement on Friday morning that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be his running mate left much of the Minnesota political community in a state of shock.   Most, if not all, Minnesota politicos expected that McCain was set to tap our very own Tim Pawlenty to be his running mate.  In fact, there was ample evidence that Pawlenty was on the cusp of veepdom.  Most striking was the fact that he had canceled his public schedule for Friday and Saturday, returned to Minnesota from Denver earlier than planned and had booked an “exclusive” interview on Meet the Press Sunday morning.  Multiple sources I spoke to indicated that Pawlenty was not acting unilaterally - he was instructed to take these steps.  Behind the scenes there were more signs.  Republicans sources I spoke to indicated that Pawlenty loyalists and family members were on their way to Minnesota and that Pawlenty’s inner circle was gearing up for a major announcement.  One person I spoke to reported that Charlie Weaver, a key member of Pawlenty’s inner circle, was seen at MSP on Thursday waiting for a flight to Ohio.  I’ve even heard rumors that a Secret Service detail was assigned to Pawlenty before being reassigned late Thursday (though I have found very limited evidence supporting this particular rumor).

So what happened?

Some people believe that Pawlenty was used as a decoy by the McCain campaign in an effort to distract attention away from their favored candidate, Sarah Palin.  This theory has led to widespread anger in the uper echelons of Minnesota Republican circles.  Many, many Republicans I spoke to were irate with the McCain campaign today.  In fact, an item in the Washington Post on Friday indicated that Pawlenty himself “felt manipulated” by the McCain campaign.  I can confirm from my own discussions with a Republican source that Pawlenty is very irritated at the McCain campaign right now.

A second possibility is that McCain had planned to pick Pawlenty until changing his mind late in the week.  This theory is supported by published reports indicating that McCain only met with Palin on Thurday morning (their only previous meeting was in February).  If Palin was a serious contender all along, one would expect that McCain would have met with her some time before the last minute (Obama met with Biden on August 6 - more than two weeks before announcing his selection).

But why would McCain change his mind?

Coming into the convention, McCain probably felt pretty good about his political position.  He was tied or ahead in many national polls and he was coming off a good month.  To add to his confidence, the opening of the DNC was dominated by questions about the Clintons and party unity.  McCain probably thought he didn’t need to take a risk by selecting a political unknown like Palin.  Pawlenty was the safe choice and there was no need to rock the boat.  Hillary Clinton’s homerun performance on Tuesday night, followed by Bill Clinton’s on Wednesday, however, changed the political landscape.  Looking at the prospect of an epic speech from Obama on Thursday night, perhaps McCain thought he needed a gamechanging pick. Perhaps in that very late hour, he pulled back from the edge and went a different way.

If true, it tells us a lot about John McCain and Sarah Palin.  If McCain had wanted to pick Pawlenty but decided against it at the last minute, it casts even more questions on Palin’s qualifications (she wasn’t even McCain’s first choice!)  Either way, I can tell you that John McCain shouldn’t expect many favors from Pawlenty loyalists in the coming weeks. Whether that affects his ability to win Minnesota is yet to be seen.

The 2004 Republican National Convention was a major turning point in the Presidential race.  Speaker after speaker took to the podium and attacked John Kerry in heated, direct assaults.  Though many Democrats predicted that it would backfire, most pundits agree that the sustained negative attacks defined John Kerry in the public mind as a weak flip-flopper and went a long way towards winning the race for Bush.

In 2008, Republicans are even more in need of a barrage of negative attacks than they were in 2004.  Barack Obama is leading in the polls and the fundamental mood of the country is extremely unfavorable for Republican candidates.  Sadly for the GOP, however, two recent developments may make it impossible for the GOP to issue a sustained attack on Obama at the Republican convention.

1. Sarah Palin: Until yesterday, everyone thought the soundbyte of the 2008 RNC would be “he’s not ready.”  With the selection of the most inexperienced runningmate since the 19th Century, McCain has made this attack far more difficult.  The New York Times reports that RNC organizers are already striking these attacks from speeches:

Republican organizers said the convention aides in charge of reviewing every speech delivered from the lectern are now on the watch for blunt attacks on Mr. Obama’s readiness to lead. They are aware that such criticism in a high-profile setting would provide an opportunity for Democrats to make the same charge against Ms. Palin, who has almost no foreign policy experience and has been governor for just 20 months.

This means team McCain must come up with an entirely new frame for Obama with only 60 days until the election. That’s a VERY tall order.

2. Hurricanes:  Gustav is already drawing a lot of the press attention that would normally be given to Sarah Palin, but if it slams into Louisiana on Tuesday morning (which is expected) it will be THE news story of the day - killing the RNC’s Monday and Tuesday programing.  Moreover, are Republicans really going to throw political grenades as a hurricane slams into the Gulf Coast?  I’m skeptical.  To make matters worse, Gustav isn’t the only hurricane heading our way.  Hurricane Hanna is projected to skim across southern Florida on Thursday.  Yeah…Thursday.  As in, the day McCain is supposed to accept the Republican nomination.  McCain just can’t catch a break.

Minnesotans wondering just who this Sarah Palin character is don’t have to look very far to find a very comparable politician.  Michele Bachmann, the Congresswoman from the 6th District, has a very similar profile.  Both are deeply socially conservative, have large families and have similar public personas.

Can a Bachmann style politician win a national election?  We’ll see.

UPDATE: Another example of Palin’s similarities to Bachmann:

The volatile issue of teaching creation science in public schools popped up in the Alaska governor’s race this week when Republican Sarah Palin said she thinks creationism should be taught alongside evolution in the state’s public classrooms.

Palin was answering a question from the moderator near the conclusion of Wednesday night’s televised debate on KAKM Channel 7 when she said, ‘Teach both. You know, don’t be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it’s so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both.’

UPDATE 2: Michele Bachmann agrees:

Rep. Michele Bachmann, a freshman Republican from Minnesota, says Palin brings a lot to the table, even though she’s lacking in executive experience and doesn’t have national name recognition.

“Like me, Palin is a devoted mother of five who understands the importance of pro-life and pro-family values,” Bachmann said. “She’s proven herself to be a strong leader in Alaska, taking on pork barrel spending and making fiscal responsibility a top priority”