St. Paul, Minn. — The poll found 41 percent support Al Franken and 40 percent support Norm Coleman.
It’s a survey of 763 likely Minnesota voters between Aug. 7 and 17. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
In reading the whole article though, I kept thinking that Larry Jacobs and Jennifer Duffy don’t know what the heck they’re talking about (a lot of what Larry Jacobs said was similar to what he said on WCCO last weekend too). It boils down to this: some people have a strange impression that Franken’s campaign isn’t doing as well as it should, it is comparatively getting a ton of bad press and that Franken doesn’t own on the issues. It’s basically what you’d think if you used right-wing talking points to get your news.
It seems like more and more people are actually realizing that Franken is solid on the issues, especially as Franken has been continually touring the state talking about them. The media has been covering that widely as well. Even though Franken has been viciously attacked by the right wing and even from a fringe, political heiress-“DFL” candidate, Franken is both holding his ground and going up in the polls. Meanwhile, Coleman has been basically been given a free ride from his primary opponent Jack Shepard.
As for negative press, Franken is only getting prodded on non-issues. The right wing is trying to mislead and even lie to voters on Franken’s strong ideology and ethics and Minnesotans are, more and more, seeing right through it. Why is the Coleman campaign doing this? I assume they know Franken will win with Minnesotans on what Minnesotans actually care about. Coleman can’t counter Franken on issues, especially as he can’t stand behind his voting record. Meanwhile, Coleman has been getting a ton of bad press: his likely violation of the Senate Gift Ban, letting billions get wasted in Iraq under his nose, the $10K from Ted Stevens’s PAC he still hasn’t returned yet as well as the money from convicted VECO executives. I also think there is a lot more to come. To say Franken is the one getting hounded by bad press is silly.
Sure, the race is tied, but as more and more people learn who Franken is as a person and what he stands for, I can only see Franken’s numbers rising. I don’t understand how anyone who doesn’t support Coleman now would end up supporting him in the next couple months. Franken’s best strategy right now, I think, is to continue to keep himself front and center and let people get to know him. I’m guessing this is why he went as far as to make sure he’s in Minnesota with voters instead of accepting his offered speaking spot at the DNC. It is a good time to put money on Franken.
UPDATE: View the entire poll results here.
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Can we actually TRUST polls anymore?
After all, when the McCain camp was DOWN, then “oh no - polls don’t mean so much.”
When we looked at the exit polls in 2004 — -> “oh, well, who believes polls?”
When it breaks any candidates’ way, we’re supposed to see something meaningful in that.
Given that cell phones do not get voter polled & that so many polls are duplicitous,
what about all those people who refuse to answer telephone polls? The error rate HAS to be higher than normal.
Whenever I see a poll I mentally triple the presumed error rate, for good measure.
But my gut feel - which has no measurable error rate, is that its about even, or possibly breaks a little toward Franken.
One thing to remember: The polls don’t vote.
We all knew that this race would get closer; let’s wait until the primary is over before we get too excited either way. The only poll that counts is the one held on election day, and my bet is still that Coleman will win by a safe margin.
That’s right, spin it Patrick!
Aaron - I’ve never met you, but I have to say your writings are not as good as the other posts on this site. I’m looking for some…some level of objectivity in reporting information on this site. Betting on Franken? Are you kidding? Show me one vulnerable House Democrat who is campaigning with Al Franken in Minnesota. You can’t. Because Franken is a liability, not an asset.
I’m not getting my hopes up because I still think the Franken campaign is a train wreck. But, I hope he proves me wrong.
Dumb:
There isn’t a vulnerable Minnesota Democrat in the House?
Aaron - good news there. And you are doin great, keep it up!
AK that is quite funny… because it is true. How many state level candidates have campaigned with Franken’s wife and daughter… lots! Franken will squeak a win out of this mess unless Coleman crashes with a bimbo eruption or Franken heats it up the rhetoric and sets a fire under his supporters. Both are distinct possibilities… especially the incriminating photos of Coleman making friendly with a woman not his wife. Or his wife making friendly with someone not her husband might be out there too. Either way, Coleman loses but not by a huge margin, unless that happens and all bets are off.
Right now the DFL is pushing the vote like it has never before… Get Out The Vote is going to be astounding numbers this year and as we all know the more people that vote the worse the chances of Republicans become. Watch Minneapolis all by it self, surge the vote for Franken versus Coleman.
Aaron-
Good news. The really good news is that republicans are trolling this site rather than getting out and working for that dick Coleman.
Hey dumb..this is a PARTISAN site. Why the fvck would you come here for unbiased reporting? Thanks for once again living up to your handle. By the way, your old saw about vulnerable Minnesota house democrats is now officially debunked. I figure we INCREASE our majority this cycle. Bicameral supermajority, anybody?
For the record, I’m betting on Franken too…every month with my hard earned cash.
Aaron…your article is excellently written and sourced. I have always stated that, because of Franken’s high native negatives (due to people only being aware of his character persona) when Minnesotans meet him, and hear his policy positions, his negatives would fall, and his positives would rise, eventually outstripping Coleman for popular support. I believe we’re seeing the beginning of this.
Something weird in the cross tabs. Barkley supporters are under represented, statistically. Refusal to vote/ignorant on issues?
Lord Faris is a joke.
Something that might pay dividends for Franken is that he won’t back down from a street fight with Coleman and Ron Carey. Anyone want to wager that this gets really nasty after Labor Day? Considering all of the allegations regarding his personal character, Norm might be best suited to call for a cease fire. Did GOP emptied their arsenal of dirt on Franken before July?
Norm can’t afford to call for a cease fire. He has no footing on the issues. His hold out is people who support him on the war. When it is discovered that he is a bootlicking Bush lacky on that issue he’s doomed.
There’s a passage in Live From New York: An Uncensored History of SNL, published in 2003, where Franken talks about all the cocaine the show’s writers were doing backstage and jokes about doing some himself. That hasn’t been made public yet, but I’m not sure youthful drug use is something Norm “Woodstock” Coleman will necessarily want to be raising.
Other than that, I’m not sure what else the GOP has to go on. They’ve tried in the last couple months to flog some material Franken did that allegedly involved a child abuse joke, or a satirical sketch in Lying Liars where Katharine Harris says the n-word. Nobody in the press covered either one. I think reporters are getting bored with this stuff. The main reason the Playboy piece got so much attention is that Betty McCollum criticized it.
Hopefully, anti-Coleman voters will be smarter than to vote for Barkley, a guy who said at Farmfest that he wants to bring back the bracero program, and has been calling for Social Security to be slashed since he first ran for office.
Whiney ass comments abound from righties here.
Is there no love for them over on Brodkorb’s site?
I mean, really.
What do you come here for, other than to troll?
Its obviously NOT to actually discuss any policy, as many have zero sense of it.
There is scant substantive discussion, its always ripping the thread. There is very little RW content.
It mostly underscores the pettiness from that side.
Patrick Black and Sweeny, Swanky, Spanky whatever are lone voices of reason on this site. LOL. I will vote for one of them, if there is a box on the ballot
for Vice-Senator.