Here’s what I think. Regarding Obama: Kaine and Bayh won’t be the pick. Those were just press games. Indiana and Virginia are two states the Obama campaign thinks they can win and those little boomlets won Obama a couple of days of positive press in each state. On the other hand, I don’t think its going to be a complete surprise either. At this point, I’d put my money on either Joe Biden or Kathleen Sebelius. The variable that remains unknown, however, is Obama’s trust level with each of these candidates. I have no special insight into the mind of Barack Obama, but everything I read suggests that he has a very strong relationship with Sebelius and just an amicable one with Biden. Also, the absolute radio silence coming from team Sebelius is telling in and of itself. I am, therefore, going to go out on a limb and predict that he’ll pick Sebelius, with Biden as my second choice.
As for McCain, I don’t think it’ll be Ridge or Lieberman. I think the McCain campaign’s confidence is high right now, and my guess is that he doesn’t think he needs a Hail Mary pick. He also doesn’t need to pick Lieberman. Like Zell Miller in 2004, Lieberman’s every move will be candy for the press over the next couple of months. His profile will be high enough to rival whoever actually is the VP nominee. There is very little to gain by putting Lieberman on the ticket (other than the scorn of the right). My money is still on Pawlenty, with Lindsay Graham as my crazy, out on a limb, second choice (hey, McCain and Graham are best buddies and I think McCain really wants to pick someone he likes).
Sean adds: On the Democratic side I think that the shortlist contains Bayh, Biden, Kaine and Sebelius. My affection for Biden is already known. I think that at his age, 65, Barack Obama knows he can get a team player and not someone looking out for his own future. There is an increasing amount of chatter on the Republican side about picked Joe Lieberman and I think that Joe Biden is the Democrat best suited to debate Lieberman. Biden’s tendency to say dumb things arises as unforced errors — in debates he has been forceful, direct and very compelling. And I think he’s awesome. So why no Sebelius? Obama has been very pragmatic in all of the choices he’s made about his campaign so far and Sebelius would offend a great many Clinton supporters by putting a woman on the ticket that isn’t Hilary. So my pick is Biden with Kaine in second.
On the Republican side I am just agog with the thought that McCain might pick Joe Lieberman.
Please God — if you’re out there, please hear my call and let John McCain pick Joe Lieberman — please. I promise I’ll never take your name in vain ever again. Well… at least I’ll try.
Joe Lieberman on the ticket might re-burnish McCain’s maverick and independent credentials, but it would also keep social conservatives at home on election day. And John McCain cannot win with that key cog of the Conservative machine sitting out. So my wish is Joe Lieberman, but my gut tells me Tim Pawlenty (who will get massacred by Joe Biden at the VP debate) with Mitt Romney coming in a close, but still no cigar second.
This concludes my largely uninformed, basically guessing opinion.
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I think everybody currently on the CW radar is a plant/headfake.
1) Richardson
Policy wonk, very qualified, hispanic.
2) Wesley Clark -enough said.
3) Russ Feingold- This is the best option. Impeccable judgment. Works across the aisle. Name is tied to McCain, but he will not be afraid to excoriate the doddering old fascist.
I think Richardson gets it, but I’m hoping for Russ.
I wish Obama would pick Richardson, but for an official guess, I guess Biden.
I think McCain will pick Romney.
I agree on Romney. I’m hoping, hoping, hoping.
Durbin! Durbin! Durbin!
I have it from somebody pretty high up in Obama’s (California) organization that there’s lots of internal push for Richardson.
It wont be Sebelius, that would piss off Hillary supporters. It will be Biden, which is a great choice.
For McCain, it won’t be Ridge or Lieberman, that would anger Rush. It will be Pawlenty, he’s the safe choice.
I think Romney is a safer choice for McCain because TPaw is relatively unknown nationally, and would have be build a bio and name recognition, while Romney is known and could go straight to attacking Obama and his running mate.
For Obama, my bets would include (sleepers) Sherrod Brown or Henry Cuellar. Sounds crazy, but he wants to carry some big states. For McStain, I am thinking he will not take Timmy or holy underwear man, I think Huckabee is a likely choice (softer than McStain with just enough Jesus).
Daschle?
Huckabee was just last week criticizing McCain… I don’t think he will be the one.
My thoughts on why several people mentioned here won’t be picked
1. Daschle’s wife is a lobbyist
2. Richardson is a womanizer
3. Durbin is from the same state as Obama
4. Wes Clark is out of the country next week
5. Russ Feingold has been divorced several times (not necessarily a disqualifier, but probably)
McCain and Pawlenty - that could be really fun….Nuclear Man and BAMCO Boy! Able to conceal finance transactions from public oversight! Dedicated to absolutely unrealistic energy policy! Capable of catastrophically underfunding infrastructure in a single-term!
McCain actually believes in “clean coal” - Ha! And his schedule for building a huge new fleet of nuclear power plants! Totally unrealistic — he seems to think there will be toxic-waste-free nuclear generation, never addresses waste heat - significant problem. McCain is more disconnected with reality than Bush — Pawlenty is the perfect side-kick for him. Because Pawlenty doesn’t care about reality!
Both of Feingold’s divorces ended amicably. There was no infidelity, and hey….at least he didn’t have a marriage license with his second wife while still married to his first like McStain.
Wes’ trip could be a head fake, and despite CW about Richardson being a ‘womanizer’ I have never read or heard of credible evidence to back that assertion.
Safe bet: Obama-Bayh. Bayh is the olive branch to the Clinton camp/DLC, he is from a red state, Indiana, served as a gov and senator. He is well liked in his state and his state is moving into toss up area.
Bayh would be replaced with a republican if Obama won. But I would trade one senator to have the White House.
McCain-???? Romney has 1 term under his belt and would have lost had he ran again, but this guy knows how to pander to the base. Running to the left of Ed Kennedy in one race to the right of most of the republicans in 2008. Talk about a flip flopper? Also Romney polled the worst in head to heads with the Democratic candidates. Tim Pawlenty only won in 2006 due to Peter Hutchinson taking the Hatch vote in DFL strongholds. He like Romney and to be fair Tim Kaine have zero foreign policy experience. Could you imagine Pawlenty versus Biden on foreign policy?
I will go on the limb and say McCain and Rob Portman of Ohio.
Does anyone know abou the Women for Obama event on Weds night? IS it just a Minnesota thing, or is it nation-wide?
If it is a national thing, I think the time line coincides well enough to put in a solid plug for a woman.
On the McCain front — by picking Pawlenty, does McCain concede Minnesota (and other, more rural states)? It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to think of the “Governor Molnau” commercials we’ll see if Pawlenty runs for VP.
“A Vote for McCain is a vote for Governor Molnau,” and picture after picture, after picture of the bridge….No one in Minnesota wants her in charge. Also, it’s pretty easy to paint Pawlenty as someone with questionable judgement if all anyone outside the satte knows about him is that his Lt Gov/DOT Commish was in charge at the time of the collapse and then disappeared afterward.
So, every analysis says the VP pick never does you much anyway. Edwards couldn’t help Kerry win North Carolina, so picking a VP hoping they’ll flip a red state seems pointless. I wold think Obama would pick a Govenor type to have that “executive” experience on the ticket. That eliminates Biden. So, by process of elimination, it has to be Sebllius or someone I don’t know.
Know, McCain won’t pick Mittens because he hates him. T-Paw seems like the default choice. That would probably be a no lose, no win pick, but it would suck for Franken because it would bring out all the super conservative Pawlenty lovers. I bet McCain picks Graham.
We’ll see.
Oh yeah, came across this McCain gem today. It is pretty fringie and should be taken with multiple grains of salt, but after McCain plagarizes his cross drawn in the sand come to Jesus story on national TV, I will believe he will do anything to win. So check out: vietnameveteransagainstjohnmccain.com
Folks, the pick is Evan Bayh. Attention reporters. It doesn’t require a lot of work to figure this out. Track down Senator Bayh’s scheduler and ask where he will be on Saturday.
I predict Joe Biden and McCain selling out to the Jerry Falwell crowd with a Pawlenty, Barbour, or even Frist like choice.
I wish Obama could hit it out of the park with Al Gore, George Mitchell, or Colin Powell…but unlikely.
Hillary and Romney make the most political sense, but both seem to lack chemistry with the top of the ticket and I wonder how their egos would contend with being the #2.
Obama: Biden
McCain: Pawlenty
I hope Obama picks Biden the walking gaffe machine. This is a man who said that in Deleware, ““you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.” He also said that Obama was, “the first mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”
As for Pawlenty, I think Democrats like Southern Minny (Not) Moderate have got to be concerned to have someone as popular as Pawlenty on the ticket. Even though DFL party activists like Minny oppose Pawlenty, he is popular with the people. Also, if you’ve noticed, few of the Iron Range legislators have said anything at all about supporting Obama. Word has it that Obama isn’t playing too well on the range. As for the crap about running commercials against Molnau, all I can say is nice try. Not one person in the legislature or in Congress suggested there was anything wrong with our bridges. It’s not like Steve Murphy or Jim Oberstar tried appropriating money to solve a known problem. In fact, Oberstar appropriated just about as much money for bike trails as bridges.
“It’s not like Steve Murphy or Jim Oberstar tried appropriating money to solve a known problem.”
What nonsense.
Pawlenty vetoed at least one transportation bill before the bridge collapse that would have brought more funding into the picture, and he did so while laughing and smiling and jesting.
Yes, please pick Pawlenty. There are only three words that will strike more terror in the hearts of Minnesotans than Vice President Pawlenty, and that is Governor Carol Molnau.
Chris,
Popular as Pawlenty?? Give me a break, he has NEVER gotten more than 50% of the vote. If not for Republican funded third party candidates, 47% Timmy would still be a state representative. That being said, I expect Mccain to pick 47% Timmy because he’s safe, although he make McCain look reallllly old…
Meg Whitman Meg Whitman Meg Whitman for McCain!
Hillary
Andy, you’re so cute.
Perhapse Jesse can be secretary of state and JNP can be Secretary of Defense.
I would love to see Kathleen Sebelius as VP. The AP has a nice article on her campaign stop to Michigan today. (the story is on the Women for Obama Blog at http://women.barackobama.com)
There have been many Women for Obama events all across the nation, including phone banks and organizing meetings in MN. Amy Klobuchar is hosting a MN Women Obama Event at the MN State Fair at 10am on Thursday (8/21) to help kick start the fair at the Obama booth.
The MN Women for Obama Kickoff Events Wednesday (8/20) are in Duluth, Minneapolis, & Rochester. The details are at: http://MN.BarackObama.com/MNWomenKickOff
Last Thursday, MN Seniors for Obama had a Kick Off event with Frm VP Mondale to celebrate the anniversary of Social Security.
This Friday (8/22) from 5-7pm there is a huge MN Latinos for Obama organizing meeting at Maria’s Cafe…home to the best pancakes in MN (corn and plantain)
I guess what I’m saying is that in MN there are many examples of organizing and the ones I mentioned don’t even scratch the surface of events happening daily. You could infer many VP options from my examples but I think they are just examples of good organizing rather than an indicator of a VP pick.
The best way to keep up to date with MN events is: http://minnesota.barackobama.com
Biden is the best choice at this point. What separates him from Bayh is that he has the ability to push back on the Republican message like none of those other choices. His foreign policy, judicial, public safety and civil rights record is awesome. He won’t be running for President the day after he’s sworn in. He’s 65.
Its not proven that a VP choice will carry a state.
McCain will not surprise anyone and will pick Romney after mistakenly picking Spiro Agnew.
Hey, TwoPutt, you leave us good Southern Baptists out of it….but you’re right. It’s a thing in the church - the Mormons are a cult to Southern Baptists. It’s one way to keep many evangelicals from voting period - put Romney on the ticket.
My wishes - Wes Clark and Mitt Romney - total win for the Dems.
Who knows who it will be? If it’s Sebilius it will infuriate Hillary supporters. I’m one and that will really tick me off. Same with McCaskill. If it’s a woman, it had better be Hillary. If it’s not, it better be someone who brings a lot to the ticket to shore up Obama’s weak spot - foreign policy. I like Biden but don’t think it’s him. His state is the size of a postage stamp and his “region” isn’t really in doubt for the Dems. I absolutely loathe Bayh and hope it’s not him. Why people think he’s so great I just can’t figure? I’m hoping it’s Clark, Biden, Richardson, Gore or Clinton.
For the GOP…..if it’s not Romney it will probably be TPaw and we’ll all suffer under Molnau.
Why are you guys debating this? Just call staff in DC. It is Bayh.
Because it’s fun…..why are you hear commenting if it’s so “dumb”? Aren’t you wasting your valuable time?
THERE’S A NEW AD OUT THAT SHOWS COLEMAN’S CONNECTIONS TO BIG OIL/SPECIAL INTERESTS. IT’S NOT FRANKEN’S, BUT IT’S GOOD.
Minnesota Bulldog,
Under Pawlenty’s administration 2006 was the biggest road and bridge construction year in Minnesota history, followed by 2005 as the second biggest and 2004 as the third biggest. The idea that Pawlenty didn’t want to spend money on roads and bridges doesn’t jive with what really happened those years.
attilla,
As I indicated in my post, I know you hard left DFLers don’t understand this but Pawlenty’s approval rating in the state is very high somewhere in the neighborhood of 60%.
Two Putt,
I know you sour pickle types hate any and every Republican, but there is a huge difference between someone joking about their loving spouse and making insensitve comments about various racial and ethnic groups. Biden is a walking gaffe machine. If you want to read more, Google the words “Joe Biden Gaffe” and you’ll see 59,000 links.
Chris,
In response to the Google Search you suggested, I tried it. Here are the results:
Joe Biden Gaffe = About 61,000 Links
Tim Pawlenty Failure = About 147,000 Links
John McCain Old = About 44,500,000 Links
Maybe Obama should pick Clinton. I’m worried about Obama taking the high road and getting killed by the negative ads. Clinton won’t have that problem.
I’d be concerned about the Clintons scuttling the campaign (especially Bill) to Clear the way for Clinton ‘12.
No thanks. Keep her FAR away.
The Other Chris,
John McCain is old hahahaha. If that’s the Obama campaign mantra, no wonder McCain is 5 points ahead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll.
“Tim Pawlenty Failure = About 147,000 Links
John McCain Old = About 44,500,000 Links”
Barack Obama Failure = 4,110,000 links
Barack Obama Old = 51,000,000
Chris-
Are you so dense that you believe a single outlying national poll taken before BOTH conventions means anything?
I love that republican tools are reduced to trolling progressive websites. Seriously. this is GREAT news for McCain, Coleman, and the other neocon d-bag pols. Great! news! In the same way that Obama being consistently ahead of McCain is Great! News! for McCain! Wooooo!
I repeat, Obama could pick the Devil himself and he still has my vote. Though Dick Cheney said he didn’t want to run again and he would have to switch parties.
Let’s face it, lojasmo. Obama should be crushing McCain. He has had more press, he had a primary which allowed him to get his name and face out there way early in this race, he is a better speaker, and he has a rock star aura.
But many Americans will vote based on policies instead of personality. I had underestimated them. That is why McCain is within the margin of error with Obama, at a time when he should be behind by at least 10 pts. Great news for McCain! Woooo!
“Tim Pawlenty Failure = About 147,000 Links
John McCain Old = About 44,500,000 Links”
Barack Obama Failure = 4,110,000 links
Barack Obama Old = 51,000,000”
Barack Obama Success = 5,680,000
John McCain Success = 3,960,000
John McCain Young = 7,570,000
and to DtM, I only posted GoogleHits after seeing my Conservative Counterpart do the same in an effort to prove his point
Sebelius, FTW!
for Obama I think it is Biden or maybe someone who has received very little attention (don’t really have anyone in mind but believe he may surprise us, Kaine is my second guess from the most frequently listed candidates)
for Mccain I predict it will be our gov.
I haven’t actually weighed in on the topic at hand.
Dem - who I’d like to get it: Bayh. Really. If Bayh would have been a Presidential nominee, I would have taken a look at him. He is moderate, doesn’t take taxing the population, and really has built a solid track record of being non-partisan.
Dem - who I think will get it: Sebelius. This campaign is all about the image of breaking molds, and who better than a female Governor from the midwest.
rep - who I’d like to get it: Hagel. that would create a true maverick ticket, and I would absolutely love that.
Rep - who I think will get it: Romney. They will want someone who the party will be OK with. Given McCain’s maverick stances on Cap and Trade, Stem Cell Research, and Same Sex Marriage, the Party would love to balance the ticket with someone slightly right of him.
Mark Warner and Lindsey Graham.
Lindsey Graham is single, so I don’t know that McCain wants to invite scrutiny of his personal lifestyle if he’s truly ‘friends’ with him.
http://video.newsmax.com/?assetId=V2879698
Newsmax has a 10 minute video of James Carville, with 3 ‘safe picks’ for Obama, and saying that McCain will surprise us with a pick that ‘scrambles the jets.’
So If McCain truly is using that strategy, I’ll go out on on long limb here and say he picks Hillary Clinton, because what more than a McCain-Hillary ticket could ‘scramble the jets’ for Senator Obama?
Who could Obama pick that could ‘balance’ a McCain-Hillary ticket?
So if Hillary really wants to be President, and before 2012 or 2016, Old Man McCain (who can’t remember how many houses he owns) is her ticket to the Oval Office.
DTM: You’re right. Obama should be ahead. Too bad for racists, eh? Word to the wise. This will be a landslide electoral victory (though a small popular vote victory) for Obama.