In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the other central-city Congressional District, CD4. CD4 is the home of Betty McCollum, who has served the district since 2001. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and it has a lot of similarities to CD5, which we discussed on Monday. However, because the 4th also encompasses a handful of suburbs to the north, it is less overwhelmingly Democratic. It still has a high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13.
The 4th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there are only a few districts with volatility higher than the state median.
However, like CD5, CD4 has poor turnout throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD4 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.
Unlike in CD5, however, the problem may be less easily fixed in CD4. Keith Ellison is running a major voter registratraion drive in the 5th. In the 4th, not only is there no such thing, but McCollum has not showed any particular desire to help Franken. Without help from McCollum to increase turnout in CD4, Franken will need to launch his own Get-Out-The-Vote campaign there.
Now its Betty McCollum’s fault that Franken is a lousy candidate?
I’m glad senate district leaders and the Obama campaign are picking up the slack in CD4 by organizing voter registration drives.
It’s also great to see the work going on all over St. Paul and yes they are collaborating with the Franken campaign:
Sat, August 9 Project Victory Canvass!
To achieve victory this fall, we need to register the voters who came out to caucus and locate the undecided voters. It’s your choice what to do:
*Join us for a doorknock targeted at unregistered voters in SD64 and SD65*
Participate in a phone bank in which we are calling voters to persuade them to vote for DFL candidates.
If you want to phone bank, but are leery of persuasion, you can I.D. voters or recruit for upcoming events. ID is very important for future get-out-the-vote efforts, so pitch in now!
Sat, August 9 Project Victory Event 10:00 A.M. Coffee & Donuts with Thomasin Franken. 2233 University Ave NW, Suite 342 Coordinated Campaign Headquarters 10:30 Training 11:00 AM Hit the doors and phones 2:00 - 4:00 Barbeque. Al Franken will be with us from 2:00 - 2:45.
This event started out as an effort to get more people registered in our Senate District and to get the registered voters out for Al & our other DFL endorsed candidates. The other St. Paul Senate Districts heard about it and decided to join in.
Thomasin Franken (Al’s daughter) will be joining us for coffee and donuts at the beginning AND a CD4 Barbeque featuring Al Franken will be held from 2:00 PM to 4:00 PM Immediately after the event.
Because of these changes, the start time has been altered slightly from previous notices. Please let us know by emailing RSVP@sd64dfl.org if you can join in.
If you’re busy in the morning, still join us for the barbecue afterward to meet Al and learn how to get more involved as the election draws closer. We also ask that you encourage your friends to come - contact 10 DFLers in your neighborhood and tell them about the event.
If you want to knock all day the Obama Minnesota for Change Team will be door knocking in shifts from 10am-5pm and you can drop by the Obama St. Paul Campaign Office at 777 Raymond to volunteer.
Betty was a Ciresi early endorser, and one of the leaders of a failed attempt to get the state convention to draft Ciresi (I heard it got about 2-3% of the convention, so the effort was very marginal). She’s not going to help Franken. Her efforts for Ciresi also helped to block the legitimate endorsement of a genuine peace candidate instead of Franken, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, earning her no fans in the left.
Join us today for the Project Victory event on this page!
The problem with Rosenberg’s analysis is that he assumes that the non-voters in CD4 are Democrats. They may very well be disgusted or dispirited conservatives who will vote Republican if activated.