From FiveThirtyEight
In a controversial move sure to upset millions of people, Barack Obama’s campaign has decided to forgo the traditional time-wasting distribution of chum (yard signs, bumper stickers, etc.) to try and win the election.
Settling on what they call a “get voters to register by approaching them on the phone and at the door with an army of volunteers” strategy, Obama’s senior staff has directed state, regional, and local field organizers to use their finite time to make tangible progress toward winning.
Yeah, as I was saying. Give the article from 538 (one of my daily reads) a read.
Edit: As a follow up, so this is one of the more recent articles on 538 —
Twelve to one.
For every twelve voters who you talk to at their doors, one voter goes and votes who would not otherwise have voted. If you’re asking: “how can I be most effective in helping my candidate win the election?” then an organizer’s answer is going to be: knock on doors.….
Let’s do a little math. 12 face-to-face contacts is one new voter who would not have otherwise voted that you personally generated. You just doubled your own vote by speaking at the door to twelve voters. Of course, then it comes down to contact rate — how often is the person home that you’re trying to reach. A very low contact rate is probably 10%, and that happens. A very high contact rate can be 50%. Average is in the 25% ballpark. On average, you’d have to knock on 48 doors to generate 12 face-to-face contacts and one additional vote. 48 doors is a pretty standard, approximate walk list.
That is why $2000 spent on an organizer is better spent than $2000 on a batch of lawn signs.
There is work to be done, Ash Madia, Steve Sarvi, Al Franken and Barack Obama all need your help, and your help needs to come in direct voter to voter contact. Lawn signs don’t vote, but people do. Go Get Some!
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Heh. I hope I get the 25 signs I bought before the election is over.
As it is, the policy makes sense. I still want a Barack Obama tire gauge.
Yard signs don’t do a damn thing. It is proven that the only thing that will affect a potential voter is a face to face from a campaign supporter. I still got my $3 dollar yard sign at the campaign office in St. Paul, as opposed to paying 8 bucks for it via the web. One question, it seems like most McCain “yard” signs are posted behind people’s windows in my neighborhood. My Franken and Obama signs have been right by the street on my corner lot for weeks. Are they afraid something will happen to their signs or something? Alec
Sean, your original post on this that smeared Monte Bute demonstrated what an immature, peabrained moron you are. Your reposting the link to it again demonstrates that you’re still an immature peabrained moron. Monte Bute could write and debate circles around your sorry little ass. He’s done more for peace and progressive issues than you could ever hope to accomplish in your lifetime. He was right on this issue then, and he still is.
I’m out canvasing for the first time ever and I think yard signs have some positive effect. Why not sell them at cost, $2-5 bucks must cover it. Seems to me a winning campaign should take any and all roads to victory. Can’t say that I see a downside to yardsigns and bumperstickers. Not everyone is going to canvas or phonebank, though I have found it enjoyable.
Karl — Uh-huh. Sean
When handing out medals, Napoleon once said ‘with such baubles, men are led.’ Activists like buttons and yard signs. In a $400 million campaign charging $8 for a sign is stupid. Charge $1 and you’ll recoup most of the cost given the quantities. But this is one way of inflating contribution numbers. And one way of pissing off people. No one said spend time dragging yard signs across the county. But having them and bumperstickers at the HQs, at cost, should not be a problem.
And great press from being cheap with girl scouts, check out this story:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-problem-walsh-10-sep10,0,522300.column
“Walsh said she called both campaigns and asked for free trinkets she could give the 7-year-olds to help them learn. If they did well, she explained, each Scout would earn her “Ms. President” patch. The tchotchkes would provide added incentive.
A representative for John McCain responded immediately, sending Walsh a box filled with stickers and signs.
The Barack Obama camp wasn’t quite so generous, Walsh said.”
Dave — If Napoleon didn’t have the French treasury behind him, and the ability to scour the lands he marched through, and he actually had to choose: baubles or logistics (food, horses etc) I’ll bet you that he would pick logistics.
And further, baubles or not, French soldiers had to earn their baubles, they had to actually do something for them, they weren’t given away. I don’t think the Obama campaign has a problem giving “baubles” to people who earn them, but no one has given me a good reason why they, or any campaign should give baubles away to anyone. They cost a surprising amount of money, they are a headache, and they. don’t. vote. Sean
Karl, your problem is that you have spent too much time talking to Monte Bute. You see, Monte Bute is so incredibly stupid that anyone who hears him speak becomes dumber themselves. You probably think that you have rebutted Sean by insisting that he is wrong and insulting him. But that isn’t really your fault - talking to Monte Bute has cost you so many IQ points that you really don’t know better.
In any event, Monte Bute is an assclown who knows nothing about elections. Whatever Monte Bute says, Obama should do the exact opposite.
If my family doesn’t get our Obama sign, we’ll just make our own! When Paul Wellstone died, one of the most moving things I saw were the handmade Mondale signs next to Wellstone signs in peoples’ yards. I watched people make them at Wellstone headquarters as I was coming back from doorknocking. And what struck me was this: it created room in the movement for lots of different folks, some who wanted to talk to voters directly, some who didn’t but who needed a role in trying to save Paul’s seat from falling into Norm Coleman’s hands.
It’s movement time, and there is no such thing as an unimportant role. In the final weeks of the election, it would be awesome to see hundreds of us on the doors AND hundreds of hand made signs on our lawns all over the state. Every who in whoville will need to make some kind of noise!
I think it’s time the adults at MnPublius take the car keys away from little Sean until he learns how to drive.
We went to Obama HQ in Wayzata to buy signs and other stuff. Their weekly consignment of 9000 signs was gone in less than one day. No buttons, no t-shirts no bumperstickers… All sold out. We came home and made our own window sign with our five year old son. Fun!
Karl — Yep. Sean
Yard signs work in one instance: The most local of elections. When there is a city council race in a smaller town, and you don’t know any of the candidates and on paper they are all saying the same thing, then it can make a difference. You drive by the homes of a few people you trust and who know the candidates better than you do, then a yard sign can make a difference.
In the rest of the world, though, they are stunningly ineffective. In my neighborhood, of often drive by yards that have the Franken / Obama / Madia / local house race signs all wedged together. When I do, my first thought is “blind partisan”.
Karl — You’re an asshole.
Thank god the adults are here, Karl:
“what an immature, peabrained moron you are.”
“you’re still an immature peabrained moron.”
“your sorry little ass.”
Somebody please get Karl a lawn sign. Get one for Monte Bute too.
Dantheman has it -signs are a name-rec vector. Down the ticket, they mean something. But I think people have heard of Barrack Obama.
Seems strange. Why not just print up the signs and have people pick them up?
3 bucks at the campaign office, Nice all weather and shiny!
Instead of going in to pick up a lawn sign or a bumper sticker, maybe go in and MAKE PHONE CALLS OR KNOCK ON DOORS AND TELL PEOPLE WHHHYYY you’re voting for Obama. Just an idea…