SurveyUSA just released the first non-partisan poll of the 3rd Congressional race and the results are astounding:
Erik Paulsen - 44%
Ashwin Madia - 41%
With a margin of error of 4%, this race is statistically tied.
Let’s be clear, no one thought this race would be this close in the polls at this point in the cycle. Madia, a political unknown with a foreign name is matched up with Paulsen, the former State House Majority Leader with a scandinavian name. The poll was taken August 26-28 - just as Madia was going up on the air - so the impact of his television campaign is probably not shown. DFLers are feeling very confident about this race. Madia has proven himself a prolific fundraiser and his initial ad was very effective. Now Madia is showing strength in the polls.
Also encouraging is the presidential match-up in the 3rd:
Obama - 48%
McCain - 46%
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FWIW Bush beat Kerry 51-48 in the 3rd in 2004. If Obama is up 2 that is good sign for him.
Check out the cross-tabs. Madia is beating Paulsen among women and moderates. The sample size is small, but this is definitely good news.
Madia is a veteran & well-spoken person who thinks before he speaks. Has some pretty moderate positions.
He’s impressed me when I heard him on the radio, etc.
Paulsen is hiding in a drawer somewhere.
Along with the other dull knives?
Just like that Michelle Bachman:
NOT an open forum in her entire time in office - and then tomorrow she’s got an exclusive secret cruise?
That pretty much confirms where this race is.
It’s a true tossup. Both are polling about the same, both are raising about the same amazing amounts of money. It’s a true swing district.
I think the DCCC and the Democratic wave will put Madia over the top but this race will be close, no doubt about it.
I have respect for all THREE candidates in this race. This one will go right down to the wire. I said this back in about March, and I’ll say it now: The winner of this race will have less to do with their message than it will what he overall sentiment is on GOP vs. Dems come November. If the “country headed in the right direction” indicator truly bottomed in July like it appears it might have, that may give the GOP the edge in two more months. If people continue to feel that something - anything - needs to change to get a different direction, say hello to Congressman Madia.
Not something that three campaigners want to hear, but I believe there is little they can personally do at this point to determine their fate, short of a major, highly visible gaffe.
Oh, and don’t forget about Dillon. He may not win, but he’ll put votes from someone.
Maybe Sarah Palin’s family values will help push Paulsen over the top. Wait, what’s that? Palin’s 17-year old daughter got knocked up? But what about abstinence? Doesn’t that work?
“Let’s be clear, no one thought this race would be this close in the polls at this point in the cycle.”
Actually, many who watch the 3rd never felt that it would NOT be this close. Irrespective of who the candidates were, there is BIG, BIG money pouring into this race from all corners of the country. If Madia loses this race, it won’t be for the lack of financial support from Democratic organizations nationwide.
The Demographics have been trending left in this district for years. In a year that is anti-GOP, being a recognized state GOP leader is probably a liability.
No matter who the DFL put up against Paulsen, this was going to be close. I had predicted Paulsen by less than 5, but now I’m thinking by less than 3.
Yo Minnesota,
I’m a native Gopher now living in upstate NY. Here’s a bumper sticker/button idea for ya….
OBAMA?
YOU BETCHA
DtM. The Huster held a press conference at a PB gas station and pushed for more drilling - and he claimed that no oil was spilled during or after Katrina.
Which, of course, is bullshit. But that’s what voters can expect from a guy like Paulsen; who started his campaign by claiming stuff that simply isn’t true and saying more of stuff that simply isn’t true on the few occasions he actually faces real people.
Real nice, Dan. I thought that the MNPublius editors had a zero tolerance policy about taking shots at candidates’ children and families (a position on the part of MNPublius that I firmly agree with in all cases, Dem or Rep).
The governor’s water broke during the energy conference but she stayed and gave a 30-minute speech before boarding an Alaska Airlines plane home to deliver the baby.
That’s a 14 hour flight. She got on the plane while in labor. After her water broke. What kind of judgement does that indicate?
DtM - PaleoCon, er, ‘scuse me, “Palin”, is running on a fundamentalist platform of abstinance only”.
Sorry - the fact that it doesn’t work in her family, is news as it directly contradicts the policy she espouses.
Oh, and Richard? - poor judgement. VERY poor judgement. I got family in Florida, and they asked me what I thought of the whack-job. I told ‘em: “Think Katherine Harris, only less qualified.”
I think the personal life of the new VP candidate should not be made an issue. We all have personal issues that could be dug up and exploited.
In my view, we should all focus on what really matters, the issue that could affect us all in a very big way.
John McCain’s judgement.
This is not a poker game where you can go all-in and hope for the best.
In what should I feel secure in voting for McCain? His age? His 4 bouts with cancer, his temper, or should I feel secure in knowing his VP choice lacks the experience to take over on an moments notice?
I admire Governor Sarah Palin, but let’s face it.. she is not ready to be our President.
“Sorry - the fact that it doesn’t work in her family, is news as it directly contradicts the policy she espouses.”
Sorry, TPT. Family should be off-limits. The details of choices that a candidate’s teenage child made, or of Palin’s last labor and delivery, are about a relevant to this race as any info on Obama’s medical history or his daughters’ personal lives.
I’m frankly surprised you’ve pounced on those “issues”. You quickly abandoned your principles when the slime was suddenly on the other guys.
There is one time when candidates’ families are fair game: When they insert themselves in the political process. When Cindy McCain gives her speech this week, pick it apart all you want. Pounce. She is then voluntarily entering the arena and is doing so for political reasons. In other cases, it should be off limits.
I hope to god that the GOP doesn’t try to dig crap like this up on Obama’s family. High Road.
How about this? Is this a problem?
In 2006, the Alaska state branch of the right-wing Eagle Forum asked gubernatorial candidate Sarah Palin if she was offended by the inclusion of the phrase “Under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance:
Not on your life. If it was good enough for the founding fathers, its [sic] good enough for me and I’ll fight in defense of our Pledge of Allegiance.
Can anyone guess what the problem is here?
I thought this post was about how, despite the generic Congressional Vote Poll on RCP having dems up 8.4 this race is “tied” - not on McCain’s VP.
DantheMan:
I small correction in your logic.
A candidate’s medical history is hardly irrelevant, and should be a consideration when selecting the leader of the Free World.
Well, then, I would like to know if Barack Obama has had a vasectomy yet. Because if he hasn’t, he may be distracted at some point during his term. Please, if you can find the answer, advise.
Oh, and in the spirit of this thread, heresay is fine. Just need something to go on.
Sorry Danbrome - couldn’t resist. I agree, though, I stand corrected in that if there is reason to believe a Presidential candidate doesn’t have the energy or stamina to lead, it would be reason for serious pause.
But I agree with your post above (the first one), that it should be about judgment. And how someone’s teenager makes choices, or somebody’s birth plan, is a very private matter and not something I’d base a vote upon.
Investigate Troopergate. Fair game. Let’s get to the bottom of Obama’s sweetheart deal on a million-dollar home with Rezko, a Democratic operative and felon. That seems relevant given the fact that Obama is touting ethics reform as something he championed. But families stay out of it.
The Rezko trial has been completely finished, DtM. That issue is OVER.
Great that Obama is leading in the third. Great that Madia is tied within MoE.
(lojasmo here)
Troopergate, fair game indeed. Also, how Palin left her town of 6500 citizens 20 million dollars in the red. Fair game. Also fair game is Palin sitting on Ted “bridge to nowhere” Steven’s PAC. Also fair game is Palin belonging to a group advocating the secession of Alaska from the United States.
“That issue is OVER.”
Yes. Rezko found guilty on 16 of 24 counts and behind bars. Obama saying: “I consider this a mistake on my part and I regret it.” Obama out a guy who, with it business associates, has given him $250,000 in campaign contributions, and Rezko being one of the two chairs of Obama’s Senate Fundraising Committee.
Over. Not forgotten.
I’m sorry to everyone for getting off on the wrong topic. It occured somewhere around post #6. I’ll stop and get back on track with Paulsen vs. Dillon vs. Madia.
How does Paulson stand on the issue of teaching creationism in science classes?
Just think about how far ahead Bonoff would be if she were the nominee.
DantheMan:
You say:
“Well, then, I would like to know if Barack Obama has had a vasectomy yet. Because if he hasn’t, he may be distracted at some point during his term. Please, if you can find the answer, advise.”
Can you please explain “he may be distracted”. Please tell me you are not that ignorant.
I’m sure you were just kidding.
Probably LOVES it Richard. He is a complete right winger who will vote party line and then some most definitely. He is absolutely wrong for the 3rd district and politics in general.
Looks like Erik is all over the map on the issue of teaching intelligent design in the schools…
read all about it:
http://www.minnesotamonitor.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3796
Might we have still another Paulsen campaign conversion?
Gotta ask… if a policy is promoted by a candidate that within her own family proves a failure, you can’t bring it up? Why not? Abstinence only sex education… which Governor Palin has promoted since she started in the PTA, promoted within her own home schooled policy and what she called “government run schools” while she was a city council person and mayor, as well as presenting it to the state of Alaska education system as a governor for two years is fundamental to her belief system. It is a basic premise of her political philosophy yet her own child has not followed her policy.
Why can’t this failure of teaching abstinence only sex education be a public issue? Her policy statements and directives from her political positions were in the public arena. Her political insistence was that every public school in Alaska follow this policy. This program failed with her own child, yet we must allow her to force this on other children. That makes no sense whatever. It is a public policy debate that her daughter simply presents an argument against her proposed program. It is hardly personal… that is unless the Governor will change not her public position in favor of a complete sex education program.
Paulsen voted FOR creationism in 2006 (MFC voters guide), and voted AGAINST a creationism amendment this year.
He should be asked the question. The Governor said on National TV on Meet the Press, he thinks creationism is a legitimate scientific theory that should be taught in the public schools.
Not to drag this back off topic, but I need to response to amuseinc’s point. From the Alaska Daily News:
“Palin said last month that no woman should have to choose between her career, education and her child. She is pro-contraception and said she’s a member of a pro-woman but anti-abortion group called Feminists for Life. “I believe in the strength and the power of women, and the potential of every human life,” she said.”
People from blogs like this to national media are jumping to the conclusion that Palin is abstinence only. Not true. I wish they would do a few minutes of research first.
Whatever the case, your Presidential candidate Obama said it best when he told people to drop this as a story.
This is and should be an issue… sorry there Dan but you are explicitly lying about your supposed research… she has always supported abstinence only sex education…
JANE SMILEY
Women’s Issue
Posted September 2, 2008 | 07:50 AM (EST)
Sarah Palin and her church and her pastor have made themselves abundantly clear on issues of reproductive privacy — there won’t be any. In a Palin world, if my daughter wanted birth control, she wouldn’t be able to get any, and if I wanted sex education to be taught in my son’s school, I would be out of luck. If a girl I knew were raped and impregnated by her uncle and she elected to have an abortion, she would not be allowed to do so. She wouldn’t even be allowed to take the morning after pill in case he got her pregnant. Maybe there’s something you guys don’t get about this. Bristol Palin’s pregnancy is at the heart of what women and the right wing have been fighting over for thirty years, and it isn’t abortion, it’s privacy and the right to control your own reproductive choices. There will always be abortion, and there will always be choice, but Palin would like the choice to be illegal and punishable. Same with birth control.
I like you, Barack, but you don’t get it either. The issues of birth control and abortion have been made into public issues by the right wing, and millions of women and girls have suffered because the right wing wants to impose its ideas of what women should do upon every woman in America including those who don’t share and have never shared their values. So, Barack, I suggest that you, as a man, should do the backing off.
Bristol Palin’s pregnancy, which her mother has known about for months, is at the heart of this battle. It has been shown over and over that abstinence education doesn’t work, while sex education does work. Do I accept that teenagers have sex? You bet I do, and I tell the ones I have borne how to make it safe and what to watch out for and be careful of, girls and boys. Sarah Palin, for whatever reason, did not do the same thing, and yet she presumes, PRESUMES, to tell me as a mother and a woman what I can and cannot do with my body, and what I can and cannot provide for my children.
Sarah Palin has constructed her appeal to the right wing around this “social conservatism” in exactly the same way that John McCain has constructed his appeal around his aggressive foreign policy views. Both are equally political, and as political as Cheney’s ideas about the unitary executive, for example. Women are citizens, too, and our privacy is a political football, and has been used as such to win elections for a generation, so I supposed you mean well, you guys who are telling me to back off, but you don’t get it. So shut up.
Please don’t accuse me of lying, amuseinc. Frankly, in this case, I think Ms. Jane Smiley is the one who failed to do her research.
Palin is pro-contraception:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Sarah_Palin.htm
http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/08/30/palin-contraception/
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/119785.php
http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=13670
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1837523_1837531_1837538,00.html
I don’t know how many varied sources I need to cite. I won’t stoop to the level of calling you a liar, amuse, but you no doubt wrong, and so is Ms. Smiley.
“Can you please explain “he may be distracted”. Please tell me you are not that ignorant.
I’m sure you were just kidding.”
Yes, Danbrome, I was kidding. Attempting (perhaps unsuccessfully) to make a point that some medical history info is relevant in a Presidential race, but much is not relevant in the least.
Bonoff for Congress in 2010!!
Good grief. Could the Bonoff group please look at yourselves? Are you also belittling Hillary supporters for being upset over Hillary still? I certainly hope not. There is one notable difference. While you are all gloating that the race is close and delusional that Bonoff would be in a better spot (quite delusional honestly - could you actually imagine Bonoff at that Twin West debate?), you aren’t all out there helping the DFL to win this race. Almost all Hillary supporters have folded in and are working hard to elect Obama. Get over yourselves. Bonoff is exactly where she should be - and should be lucky to be.
DantheMan:
Do you really think a man would be less distracted because he had a vasectomy?
If the answer is yes, you are sadly misinformed.
Nice.
DTM - I expect that in this campaign, Sarah Palin will be asked to clarify her standing on abortion, contraception, and sex education. When she does, I would be BEYOND surprised/astonished if any of the posts you have left on this board are even remotely accurate. To say that the McCain/Palin ticket would do anything other than support anti-choice, abstinence only sex ed is really beyond the pale. Republicans/Conservatives are anti choice! Palin too.
“Republicans/Conservatives are anti choice!”
Pro-choice Republican right here. But I hear your point, there will need to be a finer point put on Palin’s belief. I look forward to the media fully vetting her, right after they decide to vet Barack Obama.
I frankly have learned more about Palin’s personal life over the course of one holiday weekend than I’ve learned about Barack Obama in 19 months. I never knew the press could work so hard.
No ethical pro choice activist would ever vote a red ticket. If you truly cared about a women’s right to choose, you would be a democrat. Must be on the bottom of your list for choosing a party.
You’re right, Zach. I would not label myself as an “activist” when it comes to my pro-choice view. That is why I can back a candidate like Paulsen in this race. I would very much like to change his stance on a couple topics, but in balance I agree much more with his approach to Government than I do Madia (or what I know of him).
Truth be told, Dillon may be the best fitting candidate for the 3rd CD, but I just don’t know if the MNIP can win this race, especially given the national money pouring in from both major parties.
I thought I would share a blog I just got tuned into. It’s a interesting perspective.
http://sarahpalin.typepad.com/
ps - actually on topic, I can’t wait to call that man Congressman Madia!! I really think he is going to win this one.
Both parties have their share of contradictions. There is no way a party that represents more than one person can represent accurately all the views of it’s members. Party loyalists have all accepted a good amount of hypocrisy, or have created implausibly contorted stories that rationalize the various contradictions.
A pro-choice person supporting a Republican is no different than a pro civil rights person voting for a Democrat that supported the war, the new FISA rules, telecom immunity or the Patriot Act in any form or at any point.
If you care primarily about a party you have to accept that you are willing to support things that you do not personally agree with.