Reflecting all of this activity, political forecaster Charlie Cook, one of the best in the business, changed his rating of the 6th Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Toss Up,” skipping right over the intermediate catagory of “Leans Republican.” Under the headline “Bachmann Steps In It,” Cook editor David Wasserman writes:
GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann has always been something of a lightning rod back home, but she may have just invited a thunderstorm overhead.
I have a real hard time believing 6 is a toss-up even after all this, because if Bachmann is smart (which is the question of the moment) she’s currently working on getting her Anoka-to-StCloud voters to turn out, which ought to give her comfortable win
Tinklenberg can win this race because there’s an influx of new voters into areas like Blaine and Coon Rapids, making these precincts more diverse and more Democratic.
Obama is running 5-10 points above Kerry in the state, and with a heavy turnout, Bachmann’s 9-point advantage in 2006 could be erased, especially with a name that is well-known and well-respected in a population center like Anoka County.
For evaluation of Minnesota legislative politics, see The Degausser at http://www.degaussermn.com.
“If Bachman is smart”
Heh. Hello congressman Tinklenberg.
R+5 is pretty weak in this climate. Three democrats won special elections in much more conservative districts.
T.K. - I think you’re probably right that she will still win comfortably because, unfortunately, there are plenty of people out there who agree with her that liberals are anti-American or don’t represent the ‘real’ America.
I loved Jon Stewart’s comment (paraphrased) last night about Osama bin Laden being really bummed out that he attacked NYC and Washington D.C. when they are not the ‘real’ America after all.
Here’s the Jon Stewart clip - it’s worth watching the entire thing (he hits Bachmann later in the clip) but his bin Laden comment starts at around 3:05:
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=188635
Tink will pull this one off, especially with a write-in candidate involved. That write-in guy will peel away just enough votes from Bachmann for Tinklenberg to win this one. I wonder if we’ll see a resurgence of Mark Kennedy in 2010?
I think he will make a fine Congressman. In fact, if more Democratic candidates were like Tink, I think your party would pull twice as many independent voters as you normally do.
Plus, Tink has a well earned reputation of being a community servant and a good leader in our state. You get the feeling that he wants to serve, regardless of if it is humbly doing what he can in the neighborhood or having a high-profile Congress seat.
Can’t say the same for Madia or Franken.
This woman is off her rocker. I’ve watched it for years.
Bachmann has made Minnesota into a laughingstock.
The insanity is no longer a state secret.
Franken wil finish the job of making Mn into a joke..started by ventura