The biggest development in political journalism this cycle is the birth of FiveThirtyEight.com. If you are unfamiliar with the site, stop reading this post and go check it out right now. Well… okay, not now, but as soon as your done with this post, go read it. The guy who started the site, Nate Silver started out as a baseball guru for his use of sabermetrics (he even predicted that the Rays would be the best team in the AL), and he’s brought his formidable number crunching prowess to politics.
It’s an amazing poll aggregator and news site, and they’ve been basically spot on through out this election. Well in the biggest news since the Gophers cracking the top 25! (GO GOPHS!) they moved Al Franken’s race with Norm Coleman to tilting Dem.
We’ve seen the momentum building in the last few weeks with a great series of advertising and some great debate performances. With Norm’s suitgate problems and his ineptitude in answering questions about the economy, Al’s campaign is picking up steam at just the right time.
This is great news from probably the best source of accurate polling data in the country right now, so go give 538 a whirl, and sign up to volunteer on election day for what is going to be a very tight race.
(also, while the name at the top of the post is Zack’s, and while he started this post, I, Sean, finished it. That’s what I am around here, the closer.)
Added by Aaron: FiveThirtyEight really has been spot-on this cycle. This is fantastic news.
That is some of the best news I have heard this season regarding this race. Perhaps THE best piece of news.
Unrelated: Sunday night during football I must have seen many more McCain ads than usual, both from him and the RSCC.
Last week I got the first ever phone call candidate plea. I live in 90% democrat area, so it is pointless for either side, but the other day I got the most pathetic sounding McCain spiel ever on a phone call and the guy hung up immeditely without even waiting for questions or anything.
Then today, I get my first ever McCain mailers, and there is one from McCain and one from RSCC.
Now, maybe they knew this is a democratic area, because the McCain mailer said they will fight to support, get this, “Increased stem cell research” “increased alternative energy” and “reducing waste”. Why are they hitting democratic ideas so hard. Guess theirs are corrupt.
Anyway, anyone else noticed McCain is going hard for Minnesota? Let’s just hope he is throwing money down a rathole!
Alec
Increasinglt it looks like the Democrats are going to get their wish..
- An Obama presidency
- Senator Al Franken with 60 votes in the US Senate
- A veto proof MN House of Representatives to join the already veto proof MN Senate.
The next 2 years are not going to be fun. At least not fun if you are a conservative like me.
Not fun if you are a conservative, but awesome if you are an American!!!!
Good for America indeed. Republicans have been running roughshod over the nation for too many years. It’s time to repair some of the damage.
Laughing now at “the next two years.”
Try twenty.
USA! USA! USA!
Star Trib already declared Franken the winner a couple of weeks ago — it’s in the bag! Looking forward to the 2010 already, and 2012 even more after all Democrat all the time. There will be blood!
Somebody called me with poll on senate race last night. Guess I’m voting for Franken after all, as that is what I responded to question. Don’t think I’ll change my mind in final three weeks. Go Al!
Don’t count your chickens…it’s still gonna take a lot of work
The 2010 senate map looks better for the dems than this year.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/20/12501/2123
Here is a little break down.
All but surly safe dems:
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln
California: Barbara Boxer
Colorado: Ken Salazar
Connecticut: Chris Dodd
Hawaii: Daniel Inouye “will probably retire”
Illinois: Barack Obama “as long as his replacement is no fool they should be ok”
Indiana: Evan Bayh
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski “may retire”
Nevada: Harry Reid
North Dakota: Byron Dorgan
Oregon: Ron Wyden
Vermont: Patrick Leahy
Washington: Patty Murray
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold “might be a race, or a drain on the NRSC”
Gop fights? Here are my best pick up’s.
Arizona “If gov Janet Napolitano runs it starts as a toss up”
Kansas: “again, is popular gov Kathleen Sebelius runs it starts as a toss up”
Louisiana “the hooker lover Senator David Vitter would be lucky to get past the primary, yet alone the GE”
New Hampshire “No longer a red state. In 06 both houses and the gov went to dems. This year is a most likely a dem pick up. I bet dems pick up the other seat in 2010.
My bet is this year puts the dems up to 55-60 seats. As long as the dems dont mess up as the gop did, I could see up getting larger majorities in 2010.
Given the conservatives success in Canada, maybe it’s Republicans turn to say they are moving to Canada. HA.
PFFAWG
You should check up on the “Canadian Conservative” party. I don’t think it means what you think it does.
It was a joke Lojasmo. Remember Alec Baldwin and other hollywood liberals saying they would leave America if Bush was re-elected? Just mocking the morons in Hollywood.
New Zealand is Australia’s Canada.
Slate had an article on where conservatives could threaten to move to.
They suggested: Israel, Poland, Ireland, Australia or the Caymans.
Hey Fly Boy,
Funny thing, even in conservative lands, talking to conservative folks, they still think it is inhumane not to have universal health care. Funny how that works. It is amazing how the last 8 years of conservative rule have almost ruined this country by almost all metrics, yet it is still good to you because it is Republicans. It is plain to see, that Republicans chose party first and country second. USA USA USA.
Alec