I don’t have any more details yet but it is important to keep in mind that these polls have always leaned right. For example, it put Franken down 10 in the last poll, and that was way off then. This latest poll is fantastic news for Franken. Here’s a roundup of October polling:
10/19 Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 18 (Research 2000/Daily Kos)
10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)
10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)
10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)
10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)
10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)
The WSJ poll may well be the most balanced and accurate. Even John Zogby admitted as much.
Even though they tend to lean to the right in their polling, SurveyUSA shows Madia up 3% in CD3, which means that not only is Al doing great state-wide, but Madia is making a great showing in his big to take over moderate congressman Jim Ramstad’s seat.
I give the credit to the DFL coordinated campaign that is out doorknocking and phone-calling for Obama, Franken, and Madia all at once. While I was out the other weekend doorknocking in Eden Prairie, I was able to convince a number of voters to give Franken a shot, despite some misgivings they might have based on what they’ve heard from Norm Coleman’s ugly attack ads, but they also were very interested in Madia when I told them about his Marines background and his work helping Iraq to rewrite their Constitution. Many of them hadn’t even heard of him, and the second they knew just a little bit about his background, they were impressed and said they would strongly consider giving him their vote.
Regardless of the fact that neither Madia nor Franken have experience as elected officials, the voters of CD3 have come to recognize that both have a depth of thought and a have given a lot of consideration to the issues affecting regular people in the district. As we see in the presidential race, it’s not just about having been in office for decades. Experience means nothing if it hasn’t helped an elected official develop the judgment we expect in our leaders.
Obama, Franken, and Madia represent the change that people around the country and in CD3 are looking for, and they are willing to give new voices the chance to speak truth to power, step into a leadership role, and try to run the country better than the Republicans.
A lot of people are thinking what Obama said the other day: after 8 years of Bush’s failed policies, can the Democrats do much worse?
Graham, thanks for sharing your stories from doorknocking.
I am convinced that any poll with “KTSP”/Hubbard attached to it is tainted.
All within the float. I’m still convinced that SUSA’s inexperience polling in Minnesota is hurting their methodology. We’ll see in two weeks.
“after 8 years of Bush’s failed policies, can the Democrats do much worse?”
With all due respect, that is just a horrible slogan to have. I didn’t consider W’s term a success, and I sure hope that “not doing much worse” won’t qualify as success for the next guy.
Grahm -
Great experiences, I’m finding a lot of the same although I’m doing it in the 4th district so it’s mostly just trying to convince people to vote for Obama and Franken.
A lot of people don’t know Franken outside of Coleman’s negative attacks. That’s what has defined him for them. So giving them a sense of who he really is helps a lot.
Do any of you realize that there really isn’t going to be any real change this election? What are you all voting for? A Red guy over a Blue Guy? Both parties are at fault for this do nothing congress. Nothing is going to change. The only thing that will change is wether that seat is has a Blue guy or Red guy. Nothing is going to change. Nothing will get done with either of these 2 parties in office. When will any of you get that?
Star Tribune Endorsements
37A - Madore (DFL)
37B - Sterner (DFL)
38A - Masin (DFL)
40A - Morgan (DFL)
41A - Erhardt (Ind)
41B - Rosenthal (DFL)
42B - Loon (GOP)
49B - Newton (DFL)
51A - Sanders (GOP)
53A - Gardner (DFL)
56A - Bunn (DFL)
56B - Swails (DFL)
NW Indy, Not everything will change, including a lot of things important to me. But to say that nothing will change is hiding your head in the sand, or giving in to cynicism and despair.
Here’s what I’m hoping to celebrate after this election: Possible appointments to the Supreme Court are high on my list of things that will be dramatically improved; a 50 state netroots organizing effort that has been more successful than any in the past and which has empowered people to get involved in local races is a new thing for the Democratic party, and we won’t go away; having open conversations about race and racism, while painful, is absolutely necessary; getting fiscal conservatives and military families to support a Democratic ticket because of their principles and not party loyalty is a huge change in political discourse and practice after 8 years of fear-mongering; willingness to negotiate and use diplomacy abroad, an improved image in the world to restore our country’s damaged reputation, a president who will enjoy majority support in Congress and that therefore have a chance of moving legislation forward will have an impact on taxes, the environment, energy policy (not being written by Cheney and the energy bosses), maybe a chance that No Child Left Behind will either be fully funded or substantially improved. More rational and compassionate approaches to health and welfare of the underprivileged, women and children…. I have a long list of things that can and will change with this particular candidate and a democratic majority. Oh, yeah, and the black hole that is spending on the wars and Halliburton will change, and that will free up resources for domestic issues. We could pay for health care for all with a fraction of the money being flushed in Iraq.
Will our policy in Latin America change for the better? we don’t know yet. What will happen with immigration? no real clear idea yet. How can we deal with this financial crisis? that will be touch. but we don’t get what we want by refusing to play the game; we step up and hold our representatives feet to the fire, we generate ideas and bring pressure to bear.
NW Indy raises a good point. Throughout my lifetime, it has been a battle of right and left. A big game of tug-of-war. One party gets power, enjoys it, takes it too far, screws up, and then the pendulum swings the other way. This cycle lasts anywhere from 4 to maybe 16 years.
An Obama platform is not groundbreaking. It actually sounds quite familiar if you go back a few years. What we can hope for is that he will display leadership able to cross party lines. The kind that requires both sides to take a step toward the middle.
If Obama is elected and we simply get four years of him expecting his rockstar magnet to attract the Republicans to his way of thinking, it won’t be change. It will be more of the same.
With that said, if he is elected, I’ll be the first to get behind him and support him as my new President. I won’t become a liberal, and I may even campaign against him in four years, but I will stand behind my President.
@DantheMan I completely agree with you that “after 8 years of Bush’s failed policies, can the Democrats do much worse?” would be a horrible slogan to use! But it’s not actually a slogan, and it’s not the driving point of the DFL or the Democrats’ message this cycle.
Certainly, the Dems are capitalizing on dissatisfaction (read: disgust) with the way Bush and the Republicans ran the country into the ground economically, politically, diplomatically et al, but they are out front with real solutions to real problems.
The “after 8 years of Bush’s failed policies, can the Democrats do much worse?” argument is coming out late in the game, straight from Obama the standard-bearer, because it’s meant to give those last few undecideds or the relentlessly wishy-washy moderates among us a reason to break to the Democrats rather than breaking to the Republicans.
Lastly, the argument that worked the best doorknocking out in Eden Prairie that I forgot to mention explicitly was this:
Me: “Are you happy with the job Norm Coleman has done in the last six years?”
Voter: “Well, no. He hasn’t done a damned thing… but that Al Franken, I just don’t think he’s ready.”
Me: “Well, if we gave Coleman six years, and you’re not happy with him, why in the world would you ever vote to send him back? If six years isn’t long enough to prove yourself, will another six years really make it better?”
Voter: “Well, I never thought of it like that…”
Me: “If Coleman’s been an ineffective do-nothing rubber-stamp Republican senator, don’t you think you should give someone else a shot? Al Franken’s a nice guy, he’s serious about the issues that matter to you, and he’s willing to roll up his sleeves and get to work.”
If the voter asked what kind of work Franken’s done that would prepare him for leadership, I point to his volunteer effort to raise millions of dollars to buy bulletproof helmet liners for the troops in Iraq versus Norm Coleman’s failure to oversee fraud, waste, and abuse among the contractors in the country, indirectly leading to the deaths of multiple servicemen who were electrocuted by faulty wiring, for instance.
I put it like this: “When Norm Coleman had all the power to do something, he did nothing. Al Franken had no power at all and he did everything he could. Leadership isn’t about wielding the power you have, it’s getting the job done whether you have power or not.”
I put it like this: “With Al Fanken, you know where he stands; he’s an unabashed progressive that understands it’s a strong middle-class that drives the economy. With Norm Coleman, he’s an unabashed weasel that will change positions at the slight drop of poll numbers or change in the political winds. When being with Bush and serving as his attack chihuahua was the thing to do, Norm did it. Now the thing is bi-partisanship, and to hear Norm talk, you’d think he was a Democrat, once more.
I’ll take the known quantity over the career flipflopper every day of the week.”
If you notice the Survey USA Poll that came out in the Franken race that puts Coleman up by two points included no, 0, zip, zilch minority voters. It was all white people go look at the poll online and be enlightened! Way to provide a poll that doesn’t represent in any way a demographic cross-section of the state.
Cheers!
@ demdademdemdem
I agree. As I said above, SUSA’s lack of experience polling Minnesota makes for some very screwy and unreliable internals. This is wrong like the last SUSA poll….just not as spectacularly so.
I believe that the Supremes that are likely to be replaced are considered “liberal” and will of course be replaced by “liberal” justices. How does this change anything? Money from Iraq just moves to Afghanistan folks…