KSTP/SUSA Poll: Madia 46, Paulsen 43

No wonder they are in panic mode. If you’re doing press releases denouncing negative ads that the candidate can’t even control and then on the very same day launching nasty, dishonest attack ads yourself, you must have seen this poll coming… (watch how KSTP words this):

According to a new KSTP/SURVEY USA Poll, Democrat Ashwin Madia leads by a slim margin over Republican Erik Paulsen, 46 to 43 percent.

That’s well within the margin of error of four percent, making it a dead heat, with Independence Party candidate David Dillon at eight percent.

This is extraordinarily devastating as KSTP’s polls have consistently leaned towards GOP candidates and KSTP’s owner Stanley Hubbard has maxed out for Paulsen (not that it matters, right?). Meanwhile, MPR’s Curtis Gilbert examines how honest Paulsen’s latest ad really is.

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19 Responses to “KSTP/SUSA Poll: Madia 46, Paulsen 43”


  1. 1 1 rainman

    Time to turn the heat on Paulsen and see how much more desparate he can get…who will he bring out to slander Madia next…Pawlenty? Meanwhile, Madia continues to do what he does…talk about issues and solutions. Small business owners concerns..he listens, then responds…extend the Bush tax cuts to those earners making less than $250,000.oo a year net, or 98.6 % of all small business owners. Contrary to the garbage Paulsen tries to peddle, that is not a tax increase for 98.6 % of small business owners as well as employees that make that figure, too. It looks like he’s got a great handle on our problems and will fight to make life better for us when he gets to Congress. Paulsen wants to keep his rich cat friends with their sweetheart tax breaks happy so he supports those…how out of touch can you get. Madia= real solutions for the majority of citizens in the 3rd.

  2. 2 2 DantheMan

    Paulsen was endorsed by TwinWest Chamber. I recall there being some optimism around here that they may endorse Madia, but they didn’t.

    “Bruce Nustad, President of the TwinWest Chamber of Commerce commented that part of the endorsement process was based on the debate hosted in August. “In the end, we recognized that Erik Paulsen has a solid record of support on business issues. Time and time again, Erik has stood by and advocated for policies that promote the growth of jobs and the growth of our communities. Erik Paulsen is a champion for the people of Minnesota and an invaluable leader on important business issues”

  3. 3 3 sbowner

    I am a small business owner and I support Ashwin Madia. Does it really matter who TWCC endorses?

  4. 4 4 Bleed Purple

    A chamber of commerce endorsing a Republican, I’m shocked!

    David Dillon is the only candidate not whoring himself out to the special interests and that will present itself on election day. And not in a poll where indepdendents are vastly underrepresented.

  5. 5 5 DantheMan

    Seems to be a big deal around here when Labor endorsed a favorite candidate…. But no, it shouldn’t influence your vote if you’ve done your own research.

  6. 6 6 West Metro Dem

    DtM, While some were optimistic that the Chamber would endorse Madia, I felt it was in the bag for Paulsen all along. This goes to the politics of the GOP in Erik’s old seat in 42B. Erik’s decision to move up the food chain and step into the seat opened up by his former boss’ retirement (Ramstad) left Erik’s current house seat open. Jenifer Loon is the endorsed candidate for the 42b seat. She is the wife of Doug Loon - a paid lobbyist and regional director for the US Chamber of Commerce. At a recent Norm Coleman event when Paulsen and Loon were introduced, Coleman made a point of having his hand on Jenifer’s shoulder (rather creepy, actually) while praising her husband, Doug, and telling the audience how much Doug and the US Chamber of Commerce had done for “us”. This was a local GOP event. “Us” was intrepreted by everyone there as “us - the GOP”. Having the regional director and paid lobbyist of the US Chamber of Commerce and his wife, the candidate, in the bag and supporting Paulsen’s move up the food chain made this a lock in my mind.

    Because of this close connection between the Chamber and the Paulsen/Loon chain, I’d say this endorsement should be heartily ignored as continued GOP graft - you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.

  7. 7 7 southwestdem

    I was at that event! Norm introduced Jenifer, then spent a good 5 minutes talking about how great her husband the National Chamber member was. Unbelievable! And Jenifer just stood there, and did not say a word.

    DTM — Ashwin Madia didn’t go to that debate to try to get that endorsement. Madia went to that chamber to show them who their next congressman was going to be. The poll numbers now bear that out. Great job Madia!

  8. 8 8 rainman

    And if this poll doesn’t scare Paulsen, Madia just released his fundraising numbers which exceeded $1,000,000.00 this quarter. By the way, I’m a small business owner and I also support Madia, as does every other small business owner I personally know, including several that make way more than $250,000.00 individually each year. They understand that he has a firm grasp on the major problems facing us, such as health care costs that are soaring. Twice this week alone Madia met with groups of small business owners and the reception was fantastic. TwinWest Chamber is the biggest Chamber lobbying group in the state so supporting Paulsen isn’t any suprise….do you really think the entire chamber membership had much to say about who they endorsed…I don’t. Note to the Dillon supporter…don’t hold your breath, but nobody believes in Dillon…if they did he wouldn’t be financing almost 90 % of his campaign personally. I like the guy, but the ammount of money people have thrown his way is embarrassing for a Congressional candidate…even a number of State Candidates have outraised him (based on other people’s money). This has always been a two horse race and my horse has trained better and won’t stop working until the final vote is counted.

  9. 9 9 DantheMan

    Nice fundraising numbers for Madia. I wonder if they actually came from the to-be constituents this time.

    To-date, the majority of Madia’s money has come from outside the district. In fact, only 52% of his funds have actually come from the state of Minnesota!

    When Norm gets a gift from someome, you all imply that Norm will be representing that person instead of his constituents. When Paulsen gets money from big pharma, you all say he will be representing them instead of his constituents.

    So if we follow your logic, then when Madia gets half — yes, half — of his funds from people in other states, who is he going to be working for in DC?

    (88% of Paulsen’s donors are in Minnesota… the vast majority right here in CD3).

  10. 10 10 DantheMan

    Oh, and before you talk about Madia’s campaign being some grassroots effort… a higher % of Madia’s total funds have come from PACs than Paulsen’s. Paulsen is 75% individual donors. Madia is 70%.

  11. 11 11 rainman

    Thanks for the back handed compliment to Ash’s fundraising numbers. Why not really put this in perspective…Paulsen has a 14 year career head start and the entire GOP money machine for the last 13+ months and Madia, a total unknown 11 1/2 months ago who had to go through an incredibly tough endorsing process till late April, and you can’t cut him a little slack because people around the country identify with him including plenty of vets. He’s raising plenty in the 3rd and he’s the first candidate I’ve given to (and more than once) and there’s plenty more first timers like me. By the way, if you check your figures MANY vets prefer to give through the ActBlue PAC rather than separate checks, so the 70 % isn’t totally correct…my guess is both candidates are close in that department. Let’s be honest, Madia is kicking Erik’s butt all over the 3rd, and Erik can’t take it so he’s resorting to attack ads…..and no, Madia has not stooped to that level, nor will he. Ashwin Madia….all about issues and solutions. Erik Paulsen…all about hide and seek and sleaze character attacks. The choice is simple…MADIA

  12. 12 12 DantheMan

    Madia’s playing in the big leagues by his own choosing. He has a nice story, but no slack will be cut for the fact that if he wins, this election will have been bought by people who are not his constituents. To be beholden to influential and vocal constituents is one thing. To be beholden to guys from New York and California.. well, that is what is wrong with politics.

  13. 13 13 southwestdem

    Every donation I have made to the Madia campaign has been through http://www.VoteVets.org. I come from a family of
    Veterans and support Veterans every way I can, and VoteVets is one of them. Every Veteran I know here in Minnesota gives to their candidates through http://www.VoteVets.org.

    This is the first candidate I have ever sent money to as well. I gave my deductible contribution to Jerry Pitzrick, SD42B, and today for the first time I sent money to a candidate who would not represent me directly — El Tinklenberg.

    So I guess you could say local support through a great organization, http://www.VoteVets.org!

  14. 14 14 West Metro Dem

    Actually, DTM, candidates who want to take on the large party machine have to reach out of the district to raise money - no matter what district they are in. Paulsen is the consummate insider - the legacy candidate of the GOP - the career politician with the machine behind him. Madia had to build a machine to compete - and he has. His grassroots support is very different from his funding support. His grassroots campaign is huge - supporters who can’t necessarily write the big checks but will put the boots on the ground, make the phone calls and get out to vote. It’s going to take both to win this race and Madia has put the time and effort into building both.

  15. 15 15 TwoPuttTommy

    DtM - Erik Paulsen ran unopposed for the GOP endorsement - are you going to tell me that there wasn’t anyone else interested in the job that would likely be theirs as long as they wanted it??!?

    But you claim Madia is beholden to someone, if he wins.

    Just who the (cheney) do you think Paulsen would be beholden to?

    Here’s what’s wrong with politics, DtM - tools, best exemplified by you.

  16. 16 16 DantheMan

    Fascinating. If Paulsen was collecting half his funds from outside the state, you’d be saying he is pandering to corrupt industries across the country. If Coleman was collecting half his funds from outside the state, you’d be railing on New York Norm working for East Coasters.

    But Ashwin Madia collects half his funds from people outside the state, and the refrain is “don’t mess with him, man. He has to do it this way.”

    It doesn’t sit will with me. Maybe I’m an idealist, but I have this vision of someone who we live and work with in our community gaining our respect, and then we as the District prop that person up and elect him or her, saying “this is who we want to send to Washington on our behalf.” It is all so Mr. Smith, I know.

    Instead, we have a guy who has spent all of two years here, mostly in high school, he moves back to the district after the opportunity to run arises, he gets as much campaign funding as he can from people who he will never represent, and he could very well win.

    Call me old fashioned.

  17. 17 17 rainman

    Come on DTM, quit whining. Think big picture here. Madia will have much more influence as a freshman Congressman if he has some actual appeal outside just our CD. Because he accepts money from individuals all over the country doesn’t make him beholding to anyone in particular…his job is to represent all of us, including those supporting Paulsen and Dillon. You claim to have met him, how can you possibly believe he won’t do a tremendous job for all of us…I’ve met a number of politicians through the years and he’s as “real” as any. He’d love to have some campaign finance reform, but until that day comes, he has no choice but to use the resources available. When he talks to folks outside the state, he must be doing a great job or they wouldn’t send him money. Let’s be totally honest…when have we seen such a compelling story where a first time candidate has energized such a great number of people…Obama, but he’s also had quite a head start. Madia is special and fortunately for you and others, he’ll be here for all of us….not them, the special interests. By the way, did you hear that the RNC has just pulled another week’s worth of ads for Paulsen and switched the buy to Bachmann?

  18. 18 18 W Action

    Much as I’d love to join in, it seems DtM’s butt has already been handed to him by previous posters. Whining about the source of donations? By a Republican apologist? Three weeks before we vote? Clearly Paulsen’s losing this election if that’s the best they’ve got.

    (And ain’t it great that every Republican hack who copied Rove’s “genius” attack strategy has gone down in the polls as a result? Obviously it was Obama’s no smear strategy that was the true genius play of 2008.)

  1. 1 KSTP Poll shows: Madia 46 Paulsen 43 | WayzataDems
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