Why? Because at this point expectations for her are so low she would have to drool on stage to lose. The Obama campaign has been trying to raise expectations by sending around footage of Palin debating during the Alaska Governor’s race. It’s been getting some play on the cable nets, but I think its too little, too late.
Of course, there is a counter-argument to this theory. Phil Singer has more:
Under normal circumstances, the candidate of low expectations should generally be regarded as the favorite going into a debate. But this campaign is anything but normal and Palin’s expectations are so low that it’s going to be tough for her to exceed them unless she turns in an unequivocally bravura performance.
If the Palin that shows up tonight even remotely resembles the Palin we saw on CBS this week, it’s done. All it takes is one 15 second moment…
…The media is on red alert for Palin to flub and it won’t take much to push them into reporting that she did. That’s an extraordinary amount of pressure for a candidate - Biden would be in a similar position if McCain had picked someone else since the pundits would be on the lookout for him to gaffe it up.
Singer has a good point. But I think there are many reasons to believe that Palin won’t deliver that 15 second moment he talks about. This debate, with its rigid time limits and ban on candidate interaction, is more congruent to the scripted convention speech that Palin aced than the unscripted interviews she has flubbed. Moreover, the McCain campaign (with the assistance of one Matt Drudge) was very successful in pushing the “moderator is biased” story yesterday. Will Gwen Ifill be more reluctant to ask Palin the sort of “pop quiz” questions that have given her so much trouble in the interview format? Will Ifill be more reluctant to follow up with Palin if she gives a fluff non-answer? Finally, and this has been well documented throughout the mainstream media, Joe Biden has decided (wisely, I think) to avoid challenging or confronting Palin during the debate. He is going to keep his focus on McCain; taking no risk of becoming a Rick Lazio figure. Taken together, this means that Palin will probably be able to regurgitate her prepared answers with total impunity.
One last point: many people in the media will say that tonight’s debate doesn’t matter. They are right, but they are also dead wrong. They are right in that even a Palin meltdown is not likely to move the polls much, but the polls aren’t the metric to watch here. After the Palin selection, GOP base enthusiasm surged. That meant more volunteers at phone banks and door knocks and more money in donations. If Palin scores tonight, I would expect renewed enthusiasm among the Republican faithful. If she falls on her face, the opposite could happen.
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Even if she does drool on stage, she will have won because the puddle was so nice and neat. Never misunderestimate the skills of spinmeisters.
Randy,
I cannot believe you mentioned the drool, and it was sexist to even bring it up!! Alec
1) I figure she’ll be wearing a microphone, a la Bush v Kerry. Maybe even wearing her hair down to hide it. That should certainly help her exceed expectations.
2) remember — we have a sitting president who was awful at debates. And did his own drooling on stage. And then a huge list of legendary, skilled debaters in the electoral losers list.
If she doesn’t collapse into a fetal position, she will win the debate. Even if she does, Biden will get the mean guy label.
Even if she were to deliver a good debate, it’s not likely to help McCain’s campaign. The damage has been done and it is not Palin’s fault alone. Even a fair share of conservative Republicans hold the GOP responsible for the economy. I can’t see her dropping our jaws over any brilliance tonight, but I would venture to say that if she does OK the most that will happen is absolutely nothing at all.
However, I fully expect her to stutter, stammer, and skirt around issues with glittery, meaningless words. I feel mortification and embarrassment while watching her interview — imagine how a devout republican must feel. Especially against a shark like Biden.
Ha ha. No.
Don’t underestimate Biden… he can be witty and charming. He took down Guiliani’s campaign in one quip. When you are up in the polls like this campaign you don’t do anything rash. On the other hand expect some gimmickry from Palin which could easily blow up in her face. Right now my opinion is draw no matter what unless Palin’s screetchy voice causes Biden to over react.
All Biden has to do is not be a dick. Answer his quesitons and pretend she’s not there. Let her hang herself.
“When you are up in the polls like this campaign you don’t do anything rash.”
Not a fan of the prevent defense. When you are winning, you keep doing exactly what got you the lead in the first place.
My favorite quote of the week was from Dick Morris. He was asked “if you were coaching Sarah Palin on foreign policy, what approach would you take to teaching her?”
His answer:
“The same approach I took with teaching Bill Clinton about foreign policy prior to the 1992 debates”
Think Zack is right, the lady did very well. And when did Pakistan deploy nuclear weapons? You’d think that we would have noticed the crater…
Palin lost 65/35 among independents, just like McCain. She did a little worse among republicans.
Net loss. Big loss, in fact.
Tie goes to the leader… Obama/Biden. She was coached well and came off as a lightweight but not stupidly so. All in all not the bread and circuses I was hoping for but all it means is she stays on the ticket. Still time for her to talk about Jesus riding dinosaurs to church…
I thought Biden clearly won the debate. He was calm, collected and showed his political experience. He could have attacked her and crushed her at any moment. She did fine, by laymens standards and brought some freshness to the debate. It wasn’t much of a matchup though, and you could tell she when she was struggling for answers. I think she needs to smile less and QUIT, for petes sakes, using “ALSO” at the end of a sentence.
Biden REALLY scared me when he siad bankruptsy judges should be able to lower peoples interest or principle in order to stay in a home. WOW! Talk about clear cut socialism!
Good to know that:
Gay marriage is out for at least the next four years.
Clean coal is good! (Now if we can get MN on board)
More money and troops to Afghanistan as soon as this election is over.
We will eliminate Al Queda, Quida, Queaeda,(the head cutters).
Judges should be chosen according to their philosophies and opinions (Hope MN gets on board)
We will change the tone in Washington. (Didn’t Norm want to do that 6 years ago?)
Again, when did Pakistan deploy nuclear weapons???
FYI… http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/
“On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.
On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six. It has also been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least one additional device, initially planned for detonation on 30 May 1998, remained emplaced underground ready for detonation.”
Thank you! Underground explains a lot, as does over 10 years ago. I would guess that they’ve advanced quite a bit since then.