A new KSTP poll yesterday pointed to Coleman having an out-of-the-blue ten point lead. I couldn’t make sense of it. Luckily, KSTP released all the cross-tabs from the poll in a PDF. Ages 18-34 went 44% to Coleman and 33% to Franken? Only 65% of Democrats are voting DFL? 26% of pro-choice voters are voting Coleman? Here’s the weirdest part though: the same poll has McCain beating Obama in Minnesota. Meanwhile, averaging out every other presidential poll done in Minnesota during September has Obama up by 4 points. So yeah, the KSTP poll seems fishy to me too.
Meanwhile, a poll taken for the DSCC shows Franken up by two points:
If the November 2008 general election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate Al Franken, Republican Norm Coleman, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?
Franken 38 Coleman 36 Barkley 12 Undecided 14
While I am reluctant to light the fireworks and have a balloon drop after a poll commissioned by the DSCC, the results certainly match the trending of all the previous polls while the KSTP poll definitely does not.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Of course, how the bailout was handled will certainly change things. Coleman parroted the White House talking points and voted for an unpopular bill that doesn’t contain the kind of real help to fix the root problems that got us into this economic mess. Franken stuck to principles and has continually shown leadership on the subject. Barkley, meanwhile, completely screwed up politically: while it was clearly populist to be against the bill, he was for it, then against it, and then for it again. Trying to be an “anti-Washington” candidate isn’t going to work out for him. As well, Barkley for months has been denouncing “negative campaigning” and talking about how it only helps him — then he went ahead and started making negative ads himself. If Barkely can’t get the “positive campaign” vote or the “anti-Washington” vote, what does he have left? It certainly won’t play very well for him in the debate on Sunday. I can’t wait.
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Franken needs to remind everyone that Barkley went to the Senate after Wellstone died and made a complete fool of himself. He basically acted like a prostitute and tried to sell his caucus vote to the highest bidder.
Out of curiosity. If Barkley places second and Franken 3rd, will you claim that Franken was a spoiler in the race? Or does that only pertain to IP candidates?
Hey if you pretend 14% are bring undecided you can bring the Coleman and Barkley #’s way down. What a fucking joke.
Could be some truth to this poll. The new Survey USA poll has likely voters with John McCain slightly ahead of Barack Obama, 47%-46%, an improvement of three points since their last polling. McCain also shows surprising strength in some demographics normally thought to be Obama’s base. Minnesota is changing from purple to red.
jbenson,
Ummm, it is quite possible that there will only be, maybe 3 Republicans out of 10 representing Minnesota in Washington. You are seriously delusional.
If I was a betting man, I would put the over under at 3 Minnesota Republicans in Washington come November 5th. I would be tempted to even take the under!
Right now it is 6 to 4 Dem, leaning Blue I would say. Not so much red in there.
Thanks for the chuckle, Alec
“Minnesota is changing from purple to red.
ROFLMAO!!!
Go with that; it works for you.
Meanwhile, on terra firma, it’s distictly possible the DFL will hold all eight house seats after November 4th, and the state house will join the state senate as veto-proof. Oh, and there’s only one state constitutional office holder, T-Paw. He can thank Hutchinson and the independents for that; Norm just might be cursing them on November 5th.
Twoputt were there not independence candidates reciving similar vote totals as Hutchinson in all other races 2 years ago. Hatch lost because he’s a jackass, oh by the way Al Franken is a non tax paying jackass.
jbenson2
“Minnesota is changing from purple to red.”
The opinion of a frothing at the mouth Minnesota Republican blogger with no credibility, a deep hatred of people who disagree with him, and a gullible appetite for talking points is worth what?
Obviously, you must think we’re all idiots. That belief is what the Republican party platform is built on, and whom you represent so very well here at MN Publius. Your pathetic attempt at a website shows just as much. I’m sure it’s pretty popular with middle aged white men who act like 8 year old schoolyard bullies.
Good luck winning elections, since you think that is the only thing that matters.
“Twoputt were there not independence candidates reciving similar vote totals as Hutchinson in all other races 2 years ago. “
Never said there was. But, Hutchinson took almost 142,000 votes and T-Paw only won by slightly over 21,000.
Now, this is anecdotal, but I talked to many DFLers that voted for Hutchinson, but very few GOPers that did.
As far as your Franken comment - it goes to character. Yours.
KSTP did the poll? hah.
Mike has contributed to MN Publius with his well thought out, representative Minnesota Republican comment.
What a great time to be a Republican this is, their total jackasses getting off on calling people who disagree with them jackasses.
Just think, a Coleman win adds power to their voice in Washington.
I think that after November 4, 2008 the Republican Party is going to have to have a “come to Jesus Moment.” What do they stand for, other than tax cuts? No one knows, least of all the national candidates. Did anyone else notice that the “Mavericks” both had to fight their own party to get that status? So as a party their internal fight is something supposedly “Good for America”?
This poll is completely off base and an example of how a small number of people polled can skew the results so badly as to make it pointless. I don’t doubt that the numbers came out that way… I just think they didn’t reach an honest reflection of Minnesota in the universe.
If there is one thing that is going to have an effect on this election, to Franken’s favor, it is the enthusiasm of DFL voters. After last nights debate and for the next few weeks watch the air slowly seep out of the Republican balloon. They know they have lost and funds, volunteers and excitement will slowly seep away. On the other hand, Biden surprised people with the “Hey this guy would make a good President” thought.
Republicans will be blamed for the economy because they keep bringing it up as a reason to vote for them… while everyone in America knows it has been a Republican administration for the last 8 years. You can’t run against the Status Quo when you are the Status Quo. Why give them another shot, they already proved they can’t or won’t do what they said they would last time. I expect a major bloodbath for Republican politicians this cycle. (Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.)
amuseinc, there’s going to be two bloodbaths; one is the election results and the other is the internal fight in the GOP as they toss Ron Carey out the door.
I predict Carey’s gone by Christmas.
What fun with Dean Barkley right on the heels of non tax paying jackass Al Franken I get called a Republican. Democrats it’s your lack of commen sense that will lose you this election.
Mike, if you’re Barkley’s base, he doesn’t have a chance.
I’ve NEVER heard Barley make your claim that Franken didn’t pay taxes; that’s a non-issue and he knows it.
But as I said, you making that claim goes to character - YOURS.
Mike,
If you comment like a typical Republican troll that we are oh so familiar with, what else is someone supposed to think?
Your language is very familiar, disgusting, and it’s getting old.
TwoPutt,Nitro, amuseinc,
with an over/under of 3 for number of Republican politicians from Minnesota in Washington, I got you guys down for under.
Mike and jbenson, I am assuming you are taking the over?
Thanks,
Alec
And Mike, Democratic common sense says the economy is driven by middle class workers spending. Support policies of good wages and good benefits for the middle class and you support a vibrant economy. Common sense.
Republican nonsense says: redistribute the wealth of the middle class to a very few ultra-wealthy and multi-national corporations, and somehow it will just magically percolate through the system, even though it is concentrated in a very few. Idiocy personified.
There is no doubt — no doubt at all — that the more Franken and Coleman campaign negatively, the more Barkley will gain.
Barkley began with about 7%. Then he got up to 11-12%. Now 19%. And Franken and Coleman are both campaigning like children.
It is not inconceivable to think Barkely could climb to 34%. That is, technically, what he would need to win a 3-way race.
DtM, I obviously want Franken to win; I’ve gotten the privilege to spend time with him going back to his last radio show. And I think the world of Frannie and Tomasin. I even made a YouTube recently:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbTJ8ooDfww
But, I also have gotten to spend some time with Dean Barkley, and I got a lot of respect for him, too.
While I’d really, Really, REALLY would prefer Sentator Franken, I can live with Senator Barkley.
For the first time since way back before precinct caucuses, Obama is now running TV ads in Minnesota. I’ve seen them a bunch of times today.
Question: If this Survey USA poll showing McCain up 1 here in Minnesota is so off and Obama really is leading by double digits, why is Obama now advertising in Minnesota?
Alec. I’m down for under on the under/over.