That is, SurveyUSA seems to think that the electorate on Tuesday is likely to be 34% Democrats, 32% Republicans, and 30% independent-with-a-small-i. Call me skeptical. Barack Obama at the top of the ticket is carrying heavy coattails going into next week, and the electorate is more likely to be closer to 40% self-identified Democrats than it is to be 34%.
The other number I have a hard time believing in light of all the other polling we’ve seen this year is that just 79% of self-identified Democrats are behind Madia. In an environment in which the Republican brand has been so drastically damaged by corruption, greed, and George W. Bush, Erik Paulsen’s “I’ll be a moderate” message just doesn’t ring true — because it’s not. Using SurveyUSA’s composition numbers, if Madia consolidates about 9% of those 19% SurveyUSA thinks are behind Paulsen or “other”, that would be a nice margin of victory for Madia.
Point being, even though it is a weird poll, Survey USA may have said something that’s likely correct:
The contest is a jump ball at this hour.
In the last few days here, people really need to know who Ashwin Madia (and Erik Paulsen) are and you can help: Contribute, Volunteer.
Aaron,
Just because you think the number should be 40% Democrat, doesn’t make it so. Remember this is the third district which tends to actually be Republican, so I would argue it should be neck and neck Republican-Democrat on election day. While Obama may do well in some areas of the state, HE DOESN’T CHANGE THE MAKEUP OF THE ELECTORATE. He merely gets a larger percentage of the independents votes.
I heard that the poll gave an advantage to Paulsen in the young voters (18-35)…..that makes no sense what so ever. And now you know why I pay little attention to polls, no matter who’s leading…my guy or theirs.
This is such a complex race…. Not only do you have Obama at the top, but you have the Franken/Coleman race which is full of emotion and will probably change yet again before election day.
Then you have the dynamic of Dillon, who is a solid candidate who could well be the best actual fit for the district. Remember, this is Minnesota, where we actually elect Independents on occasion.
Finally, I’ve heard more than one person in the 3rd comment that from a practical basis, they believe in divided government. I wonder if that drives some Obama / Paulsen or Obama / Dillon tickets. It probably more impacts the Senate voting since we’re that close to a supermajority.