You know the McCain campaign is in trouble when one of the country’s top political reporters is already considering who might be the Republican frontrunner in 2012…
The betting money is on Mitt Romney for his governing experience, talented pool of political operatives, facility with the economy and his, well, money.
But this column thinks that Mike Huckabee has an equally plausible shot. He’d be the most formidable opponent for Obama, other than Gen.Petraeus — perhaps Obama will neutralize the Petraeus threat by making him head of the joint chiefs and befriending him as much as possible.
Ambinder also mentions Newt Gingrich as a possible ‘12 contender. That means, in Ambinder’s eyes, the top GOP contenders are Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich. Really? I mean…really? If that really is the field, I predict that Barack Obama will be the first candidate since George Washington to win the electoral college unanimously.
Not mentioned by Ambinder is our very own Tim Pawlenty. I would be surprised in T-Paw didn’t run in 2012, but Republicans have a bizarre habit of nominating the candidate who finished second last time. So maybe Timmy has to run in ‘12 to be a player in ‘16. Personally, I think Timmy’s chances are partially tied to Sarah Palin’s. If she continues to implode over the next thirty days, I think Pawlenty has a better chance for two reasons. First, there is only so much oxygen in the room. A field that includes Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich and Palin is already pretty crowded. Is there room for Pawlenty? Of course, if she continues to bomb on the campaign trail, she won’t be a factor in ‘12. Second, Pawlenty was the runner up in the veepstakes. If Palin doesn’t pull out of this tailspin, she’s going to get some of the blame for a McCain loss. People are going to say, “McCain should have picked Pawlenty.” That’ll give him something of an opening.
Loading ...
Gingrich is more than willing to toss McSame under the bus to set himself up for 2012.
From a National Journal article, back when cops were confiscating gray water:
“2012 is definitely on his mind,” a former Gingrich aide said. And surely not on his alone. http://www.nationaljournal.com/conventions/co_20080904_1743.php
Let me be the first to congratulate Senator Obama on his election to the US Presidency. However, this will come at a cost. Will an all Democrat government have the discipline to stop itself from raising taxes on the middle class? Or take over health care? How will President-elect Obama spend his political capital? My bet is that congressional Democrats will role over him with their own agenda.
Who will decide the agenda in 2009? Senator Obama or congressional Democrats?
McCain is pulling out of Michigan. He is cooked.
The standard answer to these questions is “it depends”. IF Obama is President and his poll numbers are high, the GOP will get behind a Senator who is in a “safe seat” (like Dole in 2004). If Obama has poor numbers, there will be a dozen people throwing their hat in the ring. Look for a young, untainted, and fresh face to emerge - Pawlenty has an opportunity, but his approval in Minnesota will have a profound role in any potential campaign.
This talk while extremely premature is interesting. (Get Out The Vote 2008)
Seems to me that the Republican bench is awful shallow. You can see it with Palin, that is the best they got for female politicians? Snow and Hutcherson must be swallowing tons of antacid tablets. Even the names you mention have wounds within that party.
A key issue is who is going to be left standing after Republican bloodbaths in ‘08 and ‘10? Republicanism has dug a hole for it self with cheap labor business corpratists against religion driven end-of-the-world fundamentalist versus the bomb-bomb-bomb no-nothings. I think that they need a little time to figure out who they actually are at this point. They have driven out the moderates, what used to be called the “Clothe Coat Republicans” and litmus tested out anybody who doesn’t measure up to the different constituencies. Look at Romney, the perfect Republican candidate as such, rejected mostly on religious grounds by the Fundamentalists.
Dr. Evil,
I sure hope they take over health care from the insurance companies. right now the insurance companies pick my doctors and charge me or my work upwards of 20k per year to do it! So yes, please, please do the sensible thing and get profit out of human life. I want my doctor to make my decisions, not some insurance company actuary who says something probably won’t work so don’t try.
Put the decisions back in the hands of doctors and families by getting rid of insurance companies. Sounds great to me!!!
Thanks,
Alec
By the way, over the last 30 years, the only surplus we had was under a Democrat, not any of your “fiscal conservatives”. Clinton made taxs more fair to the working class, and this country boomed! Obama-Biden want to return to tax fairness and let the ultra wealthy pa their fair share. Again, under that type of policy the country boomed, now it is a bust under fiscal conservatives.
amuseinc, you nailed that one. The GOP cannon win the presidency without the south; the predominant religion in the south is Baptist. So, what does the Southern Baptist Convention have to say about Mormons?
Let’s look!
***
Major Cults and Sects in North America
• The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
(Mormons)
***
There is NO WAY those good ol’ Southern Boys are going to vote for someone their religion says belongs to a cult/sect.
NO WAY.
So anyone keeping score, can cross Romney off the scorecard.
The Republican bench is shallow? This coming from the party who is running a candidate who hit the scene a mere 4 years ago?
If you have to be on “the bench” for years prior to getting the nomination, then Obama doesn’t qualify. The only “established” GOPer who has a chance in 2012 is romney. He is not all bad. In fact, with the Wall Street crisis, he would be perfect right now, but not in 2012.
Then you have the lesser-knowns. T-Paw. Paul Ryan. John Thune. Jeb Hensarling. Guys who you probably haven’t heard of, but would have great appeal in a national campaign. And all under 50.
Let’s not forget this: 50 months ago, we had never heard of Barack Obama, much less known anything about his potential. Therefore, my prediction is that the 2012 nominee will be someone who we don’t even know yet. Some outsider who brings energy back to the party. Perhaps it will be one of the people from the above paragraph. Perhaps someone who will a freshman legislator in January and will have 2 years of experience when they begin their run. Just like Obama.
I’m conceding that Obama wins in November. With the economy like it is, the Dems could put up crazyman Dennis Kucinich and he would probably win in November.
Proof that the McCain / Palin campaign is really starting to bother the main stream press. http://flickr.com/photos/jbenson2/2910034282/
DtM, just to be clear - I don’t think Romney is is bad at all; in fact I think he makes an attractive candidate and I could care less what religion he practices.
My point is that Romney has no chance of passing the religious “smell test” today’s GOP base requires.
And I see no chance of that test changing, or being eliminated, by 20012.
TPT, I think you’re just about right.
My point is that Romney has no chance of passing the religious “smell test” today’s GOP base requires.
And I see no chance of that test changing, or being eliminated, by 20012.
It’ll take 18,000 years before the GOP will stop “smelling”.
TPT -
You might be right. Although some LDS philosophy on managing our nations budget (i.e personal savings and minimizing debt) would do us good right now.
Mitt Romney is a joke and it doesn’t matter what his religion is. God, I wish Romney were on the ticket today. With record job losses, we’d be hanging his record of outsourcing jobs around his neck and he’d be finished. The guy has no authenticity, he sounds/looks like a used car salesman and his business record is full of oppo opportunities. Trust me, if Romney is ever the GOP nominee, the Dems win in a landslide.
DtM, I lived down south. I got family down south. They simply won’t vote for a Mormon.
Shoot, they think Lutherans belong to a sect….
Zack -
With all due respect, having a true capitalist in the white house would be good for a change. Most of our Presidents have been lawyers. We had an actor once — he was actually very good. We had a baseball team Owner. He wasn’t so good.
The fact one outsources jobs by itself isn’t so bad. Most jobs that can be outsourced are not the middle class jobs that are bantered about. If they are, they are probably only middle class jobs because unions were artificially forcing their pay scale upward, which likely had a large part to do with the job being outsourced in the end.
I know of a hospital who is outsourcing their Medical Record dictation. It is a lower-paying job that can be done from anywhere. With the cost savings they can attract more nurses with more aggressive pay. With the space savings, they can add more clinical service areas to the hospital.
Who loses? Yeah, a few transcription staff who can be retrained into a new career. Who wins? The patients, the community.
I agree he comes across as stiff, but in my opinion these elections have become too much about style and too little about content.