Monthly Archive for November, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 27, 2008 at 10:46 am
, filed in General
. 5 Comments

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I have so much to be thankful for in my life, but I won’t bore you with all that right now.

I just want to thank everyone for supporting this goofy blog and hope that your day is filled with friends, family, and plenty of joy (and food).

Let us remember that, as much has been given us, much will be expected from us, and that true homage comes from the heart as well as from the lips, and shows itself in deeds. -Theodore Roosevelt

Or, for a more modern politician’s take:

I love Thanksgiving turkey. It’s the only time in Los Angeles that you see natural breasts. ~Arnold Schwarzenegger

And as we all celebrate what we cherish in this world, let us take a moment today to dedicate our thoughts and prayers to those in Mumbai who have lost some of what they cherish.

Recount Open-Thread: Coleman Frivolously Challenging Ballots? Should Mistakenly Rejected Absentee Ballots be Counted?

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 26, 2008 at 7:56 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 20 Comments

Another day, another set of recount news that doesn’t seem to get us close to a result.  To this pointy-headed blogger, this seems like it’s going to be a battle of the challenged ballots when it comes down to it.  On that front, I second what Joe at MNCR said:

But a view from inside the recount operation shows just how the Coleman operation is working: not just challenging questionable ballots, but challenging ballots that are clearly Franken votes for the sake of challenging Franken votes, tamping down any possible gains Franken might make in the official tally.

Emerging accounts indicate that ballots with clear intent — an X instead of a filled-in circle, with no other confusing marks, for example — are being challenged by Coleman-affiliated observers. One account indicated that a Coleman observer challenged a clear Franken vote because apparently, “the dots were too big.” In another case, a Coleman volunteer challenged a ballot and was told by the attorney on hand that it was a clear Franken vote, but if they wanted to challenge it “tit-for-tat”, to go ahead.

This goes along with what Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com was saying a little bit ago: Team Coleman may be artificially buffering their ballot lead by frivolously challenging ballots.  A ballot challenged is a ballot that goes uncounted for now and while (hopefully) those ballots, if truly frivolous, will quickly be reinstated as a Franken vote when reviewed, it helps Coleman’s public-political position to be able to go into the challenged ballot process with a vote lead.

Like I said yesterday, with over 3000 challenged ballots, this is going to largely depend on how frivalously each camp has been challenging ballots.  If, for example, Team Coleman has been instructing their challengers to be extremely aggressive (and there is some evidence of that), then perhaps more of their ballots will go Franken than Franken’s will go Coleman.  Maybe…

Meanwhile, the State Canvassing board’s ruling on absentee ballots may have an upside according to Lori Sturdevant:

The official word from the State Canvassing Board Wednesday was that It would not add rejected absentee ballots to the U.S. Senate race recount. But the discussion surrounding one small subset of those rejected ballots — those that were mistakenly rejected on Election Day by local election judges — strongly implied that, one way or another, those ballots eventually will be added to the vote totals of GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and DFL challenger Al Franken.

They should be. An election judge’s error should not bar any legitimate ballot from being counted.

So, what say you fair readers?  Is Norm Coleman Frivolously Challenging Ballots?  Should Mistakenly Rejected Absentee Ballots be Counted?  Am I just a moonbat?  Let’s hear it!

Peterson Won’t Be Ag Secretary

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on November 25, 2008 at 10:10 am
, filed in Misc. Local Politics and Misc. National Politics
. 5 Comments

Several publications have speculated that Minnesota’s Collin Peterson, currently chair of the House Agriculture Committee, could be in line to be Barack Obama’s Treasury Secretary of Agriculture(ed.).  Republicans I have spoken to have been particularly excited at the possibility because they see the 7th District as a prime pick-up opportunity were Peterson to abandon the seat.  Peterson has denied interest in the job many times, but he gave a Shermanesque denial to Don Davis:

“I made it very clear I did not want an offer,” [Peterson] said Monday of his comments to Obama’s staff.

And whenever he speaks to a group, which happens a lot as a powerful chairman, one of his lines is: “I guarantee you it is not going to be me.”

The Obama people have not been hounding him to accept: “They have not contacted me. They have not sent me anything. They have not asked me anything.”

Peterson speculated that maybe the Obama folks are using his name as a distraction: “They can use me to keep the focus off whoever they want to get in there.”

I actually think the DFL would have a decent chance at holding the 7th if Peterson were to leave. We’ve got a decent bench up there, led by St. Rep. Paul Marquart. Still, its a relief to know that Peterson isn’t going anywhere soon.

Strib: With 3000+ Challenged Ballots, The Recount Tally Doesn’t Reveal Much

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 25, 2008 at 8:07 am
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 3 Comments

This is what I was saying on Thursday last week, but with 78% of the ballots recounted, the margin as small as ever, and 3000 ballots challenged, it’s more true than I thought:

The number of ballot challenges in the U.S. Senate recount surged again on Monday, passing 3,000 overall and clouding the question of who’s picking up ground in the hotly contested race. [Strib]

This means, of course, that there’s no way to figure this one out until after the challenged ballots are ruled on by the Canvassing Board. That is, unless one of the two candidates magically manages to increase their margin by over 3000 votes in the last 22% to be recounted… not likely. So, one of the huge questions remaining then is how frivolous each sides’ challenges are. Will the difference in the quality of their challenged ballots be enough to alter the pre-challenged-ballot recount tally? Minnpost notes:

Late today, Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann told MinnPost that as part of Wednesday’s Canvassing Board meeting, there will be a discussion about how to reduce the challenges. Ritchie could direct his staff to talk with both campaigns to reduce the pile.

Also to be addressed at Wednesday’s meeting, the lingering issue of rejected absentee ballots…

Point being, as efficiently as this recount is going, there’s going to be quite a bit left to do after the ticker on the Secretary of State’s recount website hits 100%.

Brodkorb Considering a Run For GOP Leadership

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on November 24, 2008 at 11:12 am
, filed in General
. 30 Comments

PIM reports that Michael Brodkorb is considering running for Deputy Chair of the MN GOP.

We also hear and confirmed that famous (or infamous, depending on your point of view) Minnesota Democrats Exposed blogger Michael Brodkorb has been asked to think about running for Deputy Chair. Those who know Brodkorb’s work know that he would be an exciting pit bull addition to state GOP party leadership.

Exciting pit bull? Really? Did the Republicans learn nothing from their last encounter with a pit bull?

Of course, if the Republicans do elect Michael Deputy Chair, they will be ratifying all of the poison, all of the deception, and all of the Atwaterian/Rovian tactics he has practiced for the last few years. I think the voters have rejected that particular political philosophy over the past couple of election cycles (see Ayers, Bill) but I would be surprised if the Republican hardliners who get to pick the party leadership are able to resist Brodkorb’s siren song. And that is just fine with me.

More by Sean: Alright Michael, you’ve acknowledged on your twitter feed that you’re thinking about running (good use of teh interwebs buddy — you’re going to need it) so, I think that public questions are fair game.  So, here’s one.  If elected Vice Chair of the MNGOP will you work to ensure a more open meeting policy for the Republican Party of Minnesota.  Admittedly they have a liberal interest, but well respected groups like the UpTake have been denied access to Republican Party events — including those that should be as open as possible like your conventions and state central committee meetings.  If elected will you work to change this policy to allow for a more transparent and communicative Republican Party?

Coleman Running Away From Reporters… Again

by
Aaron Landry
Published on November 21, 2008 at 3:59 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 9 Comments

Déjà vu:

November 21, in Monticello:

October 29, in Saint Cloud:

Same stuff, different reporter. Looks like KMSP’s Tom Lyden this time.

More Data From Franken Campaign

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on November 21, 2008 at 2:17 pm
, filed in General
. 17 Comments

More encouraging news:

DAY 3: FRANKEN CUTS COLEMAN LEAD DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS

Each night, the Secretary of State will update its count at 8 pm Central Time at this address: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

But because we have observers in every precinct (many of which counted into the night), our internal data is more up-to-date. In addition, whereas the Secretary of State removes all challenged ballots from his tally, we are able to report the election judge’s actual calls from the table.

Thus, we believe that Norm Coleman’s margin has been cut down into double digits, below 100 votes.

That, and all following data, is as of the end of counting last night:

  • 51.1% of the ballots were hand-counted - and the ballots counted have tended to be from redder piles. In the subset of ballots that have been counted, Al Franken got 48.5% of the two-way vote. In the subset of ballots that have yet to be counted, Al Franken got 51.5% of the two-way vote.
  • In Hennepin County: 54.4% of the ballots have been counted. Al Franken has gained a net of 34 votes. And in the precincts of Hennepin County not yet counted, many of which are in the city of Minneapolis, Al Franken got 66.5% of the two-way vote.
  • In Ramsey County: 30.7% of the ballots have been counted. Al Franken has gained a net of 36 votes. And in the precincts of Ramsey County not yet counted, Al Franken got 56.3% of the two-way vote.
  • In St. Louis County: 35.9% of the ballots have been counted. Al Franken has gained a net of 47 votes. And in the precincts of St. Louis County not yet counted, including the city of Duluth, Al Franken got 63.3% of the two-way vote.

The rest of the release is after the jump.

Continue reading ‘More Data From Franken Campaign’

Media Matters Nails Fox News On Rumor Michael Brodkorb Started

by
Aaron Landry
Published on November 20, 2008 at 8:53 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 15 Comments

Even though the “Lizard People” ballot is pretty darn funny, I think Media Matters catching Fox News’ Andrew Napolitano lying takes the cake for me this week in recount news:

During the November 19 edition of Fox News’ Studio B, Fox News senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano, a former New Jersey Superior Court judge, baselessly claimed that Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) is a “former member of the Communist Party.” Discussing the members appointed to the Minnesota State Canvassing Board, which oversees the recount in the Minnesota Senate race, Napolitano stated: “The fifth member of the committee by statute, is the secretary of state, who is a Democrat and a former communist — former member of the Communist Party.” Napolitano provided no evidence to support his claim that Ritchie is “a former communist” or a “former member of the Communist Party.”

Hilarious. Communist? Really? Where did you get that information? Oh yeah, a rumor that dedicated MNpublius reader Michael Brodkorb himself started. Note, Michael Brodkorb may not have directly claimed that Mark Ritchie was a communist, but he did start the rumor. From a post that he quickly retracted this evening for some reason:

As the blogger who broke the story about Ritchie’s connection to Communist Party, please see the links to my original posts.

He then links to all four examples of his own “research” that shows these amazing ties between Mark Ritchie and Communism. First, he links to a piece at the Community Party website that actually has nothing to do with Mark Ritchie or his political views except for the fact he got mentioned as someone that is known to protect voter’s rights and being part of the voter protection movement. Brodkorb picks his quote wisely and doesn’t include what’s written after it. Brilliant. Secondly, he links to an piece that Mark Ritchie wrote that appeared on the People’s Weekly World. Brodkorb writes:

Ritchie’s writings have been published by newspaper with “a special relationship with the Communist Party USA.”

Even if that connection is incredibly weak in the first place, Brodkorb doesn’t tell you that the piece was originally at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (.doc) dated a couple weeks earlier and simply reprinted by the People’s Weekly World. Heh.

Brodkorb’s third example is how the Star Tribune mentioned Brodkorb’s spun version of his first example. Congratulations, Mr. Michael B. Brodkorb! I wonder how that happened?!

The fourth and final example is a $250 contribution to Mark Ritchie from a donor that is also part of an organization that “is dedicated to providing information and activities relating to contemporary Cuba and contributing to a normalization of relations between Cuba and the U.S.”

Wow. $250 from someone interested in normalizing relations between Cuba and the U.S.? That must mean Ritchie is a secret communist!

By the time the telephone tag is done, we have Fox News lying by saying that Mark Ritchie was part of the Communist Party.

The level of wing-nuttery exceeds my normal threshold and perhaps this occurred to Michael Brodkorb when he decided to pull the post down within minutes after posting it. It’s that or he realized that when he linked to Media Matters showing that the whole Communist connection is a load of bunk, he may no longer have wanted to take credit for spreading the rumor.

After Day 2 42.33% of Ballots Counted

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 20, 2008 at 8:20 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 8 Comments

The results for the day are up and 42.33% of the ballots have been counted — almost half way there (although one assumes that the second half will take longer).

The Star Tribune currently has the recount showing Coleman ahead by a scant 136 votes (this, of course, is the pre-recount number adjusted by the recount results). I’m not 100% sure if their tally is using the latest data just put up, but I think it is.

My numbers (and to be honest I’m not sure I’m using the SoS data correctly) show a slightly different margin. Balancing Coleman’s pre-recount total and his ballots recounted (534687-534475) shows him having lost 212 ballots from the recount so far. Meanwhile, doing the same for Franken (494930-494804) shows him losing 126 ballots. Taking these two (212-126) means that Franken has gained 86 ballots over Coleman, which means the recount adjusted margin is (215-86) 129 votes. The Strib uses data they’ve collected as well, so they’re probably right, but I just wanted to check with everyone out there that I’m doing my math right.

And just for the sake of throwing irresponsibly oversimplified calculations into the mix, if the current rate of overturned ballots held exactly at pace (86/.4233) Coleman ends up winning by 12 votes (215-203). The only reason I even throw that grossly unrepresentative calculation out there is because 734 ballots have been challenged already… I think it’s safe to say that no matter how much the pace changes, the margin will be smaller than the number of ballots challenged, which means the whole situation is liable to change right at the finish line.

Either way, this is getting interesting…

Fivethirtyeight: What’s With All The Coleman Challenges?

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on November 20, 2008 at 5:38 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. Closed

Fivethirtyeight points out something very interesting:

According to the latest statistics compiled by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Norm Coleman’s campaign has thus far challenged 240 ballots in Minnesota’s recount process, whereas the Franken campaign has challenged 172 ballots, a 68-ballot gap. If the rate of challenges holds steady as the rest of the state’s ballots are re-counted, that would mean the Coleman campaign would send about 1,050 ballots to the state’s canvassing board as compared with roughly 750 from Franken.

So why has Coleman challenged so many more ballots? Nate has a theory:

Their incentive to do so might be as follows: whichever candidate leads at the end of the first phase of the recount process — before the canvassing board reviews any challenged ballots — will be able to claim some sort of moral highground. By being able to deduct ballots from their opponent’s total essentially at will, the campaigns increase the likelihood that they will in fact lead at the end of the first-phase count with each additional ballot that they challenge.

The incentives may be particularly powerful for the Coleman campaign, because Minnesota has a Democratic Secretary of State (although the five-person canvassing board he appointed appears to be divided roughly evenly across the political spectrum). If Coleman leads at the end of both the initial count (as he did) and the first phase of the recount process, but falls behind Franken after the canvassing board completes his review of the challenged ballots, he will probably attempt to complain later that Democratically-appointed canvassing board had “overturned the will of the people”. This might give him greater leverage to demand a second recount or even a re-vote in the event that he falls behind. It might also plausibly affect the mindset of the canvassing board when reviewing the challenged ballots.

Something to keep an eye on.

Recount Data

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on November 20, 2008 at 3:13 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. Closed

Fascinating data from the Franken campaign:

DAY 1: FRANKEN GAINS ON COLEMAN - EVEN AS MORE REPUBLICAN AREAS ARE RECOUNTED FIRST
On the first day of the statewide recount, Norm Coleman’s margin was slashed by roughly 20%.

Each night, the Secretary of State will update its count at 8 pm Central Time at this address:
 http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

But because we have observers in every precinct (many of which counted into the night), our internal data is more up-to-date and allows us to provide you with some context in which to view the results of the first day of the recount. All of this data is as of the end of counting last night:

  • 26.5% of the ballots were hand-counted - and the ballots that were hand-counted represented a sample that disproportionately consisted of Coleman votes by a 3.3% margin. In other words, the first ballots counted tended to be from redder piles.
  • In Hennepin County (Minneapolis), 29.5% of ballots were counted. Among those ballots, Franken received only 49% of the two-way vote on Election Night, but netted 16 votes in the recount. In the portion of Hennepin County not yet counted, Franken received 62% of the two-way vote on Election Night.
  • In Ramsey County (St. Paul), 17% of the vote has been recounted, with Franken netting 26 votes. In the portion of Ramsey County not yet counted, Franken received 59% of the two-way vote on Election Night.
  • In St. Louis County (Duluth), 16% of the vote has been recounted, with Franken netting 41 votes. In the portion of St. Louis County not yet counted, Franken received 62% of the two-way vote on Election Night.

Things are looking pretty good. The rest of the Franken release is after the jump…

Continue reading ‘Recount Data’

538 Weighs in on Recount; Data is Uncertain

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 20, 2008 at 9:54 am
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 10 Comments

The always wonderful FiveThirtyEight.com did some quick analysis on the numbers that came in last night (emphasis mine):

Minnesota reports that it has thus far re-counted 15.49 percent of its ballots. If the first day’s results are indicative of the pace that the candidates will maintain throughout the recount process, Franken would gain a net of 278 votes over Colmean, giving him a narrow victory. For any number of reasons, however, the results reported thus far may not be indicative of future trends.

Moreover (his numbers are already dated here, the Strib reports Coleman challenging 146 and Franken 123):

Coleman has thus far challenged 115 ballots and Franken 106. However, based on local reports, many or perhaps most of the challenges are frivolous, and are unlikely to be upheld upon review. Thus, the candidate who has challenged fewer ballots probably stands to gain ground once such challenges are adjudicated.

This is the first time I’ve seen reports of challenges being frivolous, but it’s interesting if true. Nate cautions, however, that the results from last night may be misleading for a variety of reasons; the most significant of which may be the fact that St. Louis County uses machines that are older as compared to the rest of the State that are more prone to error and the areas most affected are highly Democratic. And then there are factors that suggest these results could be under-representative of Franken’s possible gains statewide:

On the other hand, the precincts that were re-counted today were slightly redder than average, having favored Coleman by an aggregate of 3.3 points during the initial count. No votes have yet been re-counted in Minneapolis (out of more than 200,000 cast), although about 43,000 have been recounted in St. Paul (out of around 140,000 cast on Election Day). Another city which has not yet reported any results is Duluth, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.

The bottom line is that nothing can be said for certain right now (when will that stop being the case!?), but let’s hope that the good news for Franken keeps coming in over these next few days…

After First Day, Coleman Lead Shrinks Notably

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 20, 2008 at 9:42 am
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. Closed

From the Strib (emphasis mine):

By day’s end, with about 18 percent of the vote recounted, Coleman continued to lead Franken — but by only 174 votes, notably narrower than the unofficial gap of 215 votes at which the recount had begun. Franken’s gain owed much to a swing of 23 votes in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County — the result of faintly marked ballots and older optical scanners that failed to read the marks.

But, there were a notable number of challenged ballots with Franken reps challenging 123 and Coleman reps challenging 146:

If that pace continues, challenged votes could wind up being a major factor in a race where the margin is down to hundreths of a percentage point. Challenged votes will be set aside until mid-December, when a five-member state Canvassing Board will review them individually.

MN Indy also notes a point that may be of significance:

Minnesota’s most populous county hand-tallied at a rate far below the rest of the state: Hennepin County’s manual recount of barely more than 1 percent of ballots cast had Coleman losing seven votes and Franken gaining one.

All in all, however, it seems as though the first day went pretty smoothly given the immensity of this endeavor. We, of course, eagerly await 8PM today when the next round of results will filter on to the Secretary of States unofficial reports website.

With its Legal Team 0 and 4, Can Team Coleman Afford to Lose Anymore Credibility?

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 20, 2008 at 5:11 am
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 4 Comments

Yesterday’s decision by Ramsey County District Court Judge Dale Lindman marks the 4th defeat in court for Norm Coleman’s legal team.  Four times Coleman’s legal team has stepped into court and lost to Franken’s legal team.  How many times have they faced off?  You guessed it, four.   Is this an indication of the quality of Coleman’s legal arguments, the difficulty in arguing against counting all properly cast ballots, or just the ineptitude of Coleman’s legal representation?  I’m not sure, but none of the above garner the legal team much credibility as we head into the meat of the recount.  On the other hand, Franken’s team has been knocking them out of the park; succeeding at every confrontation.

But Coleman’s credibility problems don’t end there.  Time and again their official statements have later proved to be falsifications, misconceptions, intentional obfuscations, or straight lies.  Team Franken notes (my list paraphrases theirs) that Judge Lindman’s rebuke of Coleman’s claims is just the latest in a series of embarrassments for team Coleman:

  • On Tuesday, for the third time, Coleman claimed he had been “declared” the winner.  But the Secretary of State (you know, the guy whose job it is to track this stuff) had this to say: “Candidates can say anything.  Minnesota law is very clear that any election within a half a percent is not known until the completion of the recount.”
  • In addition to Coleman’s suit about 32 ballots being found in the trunk of a car being thrown out, the whole story about the ballots being in the trunk of a car was completely debunked.
  • The media has also seen fit to debunk the “shenanigans” (their word) Coleman claimed Team Franken was engaged in during the canvassing and the courts dismissed the related claims as well.
  • Relatedly, on Tuesday the State Canvassing Board agreed with Team Franken that the issue of improperly rejected absentee ballots should be considered, directly refuting the various press releases and talking points Coleman had put out claiming that doing so would delay the recount.

I realize that Team Coleman is incredibly frightened right now and is pursuing all avenues of attack in the interest of discrediting the recount process in the event it turns for Franken — or better yet, preventing all ballots from being counted — but all these ludicrous statements and false attacks are seriously eroding their already limited credibility.  But, hey, if they want to systematically undermine their own message, I certainly won’t complain!

BREAKING: Judge Grants Team Franken Access to Data on Rejected Absentee Ballots

by
Matt Martin
Published on November 19, 2008 at 3:00 pm
, filed in MN 2008: Senate
. 26 Comments

Despite all the desperate spinning that the Coleman Campaign has been trying to do, it appears that the law sides with Al Franken is his quest to ensure that every properly cast ballot is counted. Ramsey County District Judge Dale Lindman just ruled that information Ramsey County has on absentee ballots that were rejected or not counted must be turned over by the end of the day:

In his order, Lindman wrote: “The harm that [Franken’s campaign] would suffer absent a temporary restraining order and temporary injunction far outweighs any harm to [Ramsey County]. With each passing hour, the Franken campaign is irreparably harmed in its efforts to ensure that each valid vote is properly counted and to prepare for the procedures that will decide this election.”

The data to be released will not include information showing how each person voted, but only that information written on the envelopes in which the ballots are kept. [Strib]